Climate change is unequivocal and largely due to human activities like greenhouse gas emissions. Effects include increased temperatures, sea level rise, and more extreme weather. Family planning can help adaptation by slowing population growth and reducing stress on resources. Many National Adaptation Programs of Action recognize population growth as exacerbating climate impacts but few include family planning in projects. Integrating family planning into community-based adaptation could help address unmet need and strengthen resilience.

1. Climate Change: What does FP/RH have to do with it? Karen Hardee Hardee Associates and Population Reference Bureau Clive Mutunga and Kathleen Mogelgaard , Population Action International Global Health Mini University Washignton DC , October 8, 2010 HARDEE ASSOCIATES LLC

2. Outline Climate Change 101 Climate Change and Population: the macro Climate Change and FP/RH: the micro What are NAPAs and Where is FP/RH? Climate Change and Development Financing: Implications for FP/RH Discussion

7. What Drives Emissions? ‘ Kaya Identity’ Yoichi Kaya, 1990. = X X X IPAT Equation Ehrlich and Holdren 1970s Per capita economic production Energy Intensity Carbon Intensit y Population Emissions Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

8. Net impact of population on climate Controlling for other variables, a one percent of population growth is associated with a one percent increase in carbon emission Study Elasticity Dietz & Rosa, 1997 +1.15 Shi, 2003 +1.43 York et al., 2003 +0.98 Rosa et al. 2004 +1.02 Cole & Neumayer, 2004 +0.98

9. Consumption Patterns UNFPA, 2009 State of the World Population Report

13. Rapid Population Growth and Agricultural Decline http://www.populationaction.org/climatemap

14. Rapid Population Growth and Low Resilience

15. All 3: Population and Climate Change “Hotspots”

16. “ Hotspots” with High Unmet Demand for Family Planning

17. World Population Projections United Nations, 2009 1-2 billion fewer tons of carbon emissions O’Neill, 2009 8.0

20. Sectoral Classification of NAPA Projects Interventions included in NAPAs

21. Priority Ranking of Projects

24. Population, Reproductive Health/Family Planning and Adaptation Strategies in 41/49 NAPAs Mutunga and Hardee, 2009

25. Unmet Need for Family Planning in NAPA Countries 27 of the 49 LDCs, including Yemen and Uganda, are projected to at least double their current population by 2050 Unmet need 80% of countries >20% Top 5 countries Yemen 51% Uganda 41% Lao People’s Democratic Republic 40% Haiti 38% Maldives 37%

27. Link between NAPA and National Development Process, as Reflected in 41 NAPAs Source: Mutunga and Hardee, 2009

30. Climate funds architecture Source: Heinrich Boll Stiftung and ODI

33. Climate finance can cover the additional costs and risks of development programs World Bank, 2010 The big issue is “additionality” in climate funding vs. development assistance

38. Thank you [email_address] [email_address] [email_address]