Future of Voice - New Value Chain Presentation that Dean Bubley and Martin Geddes gave at the Future of Voice workshop. It explores the differences between traditional telco voice services and cloud voice services and how the emergence of the latter will impact on the value chain.

1. Future of Voice Workshop
New Value Chain
8th October 2013
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

2. Voice = Telecoms
SAFETY
OF LIFE
TRIVIA
Oct 2013
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3. Voice = Telecoms
SAFETY
OF LIFE
Voice = IT
Growth opportunity
TRIVIA
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

4. Classic
telco voice
SAFETY
OF LIFE
Hybrid
voice
Growth opportunity
TRIVIA
Oct 2013
Cloud
voice
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

5. Example cloud voice service



3% of population are hearingimpaired
“Rich deaf” willing to be reconnected to society
Telephone hearing aid
adaptation in the cloud


Oct 2013
Requires assured packet
network
PSTN voice acts as filter
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

6. Classic
telco voice
Hybrid
voice
Cloud
voice
VALUE FROM
TRANSPORT
100%
?
0%
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

7. FAST
TEMPO
SLOW
TEMPO
SAFETY
OF LIFE
TRIVIA
Oct 2013
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8. TDM
SAFETY
OF LIFE
“VoIP” and “VuIP”
100% MANAGED
& ASSURED
?
Growth opportunity
MANAGED
OR ASSURED
OTT
TRIVIA
Oct 2013
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9. The end game?
“Cloud voice world”
SAFETY
OF LIFE
MANAGED
OR ASSURED
Legacy
TRIVIA
OTT
WHEN & HOW?
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

10. One small problem…
(Almost) nobody
knows how to:
Make
Sell
Buy
Legacy
this capability
“Cloud voice world”
ASSURED
CLOUD
CONNECTIVITY
OTT
How to build digital supply chains for cloud services?
Oct 2013
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11. Cloud voice – not so many players (yet)!
WHOLESALE
ACCESS
SERVICE
PLATFORMS
INFRASTRUCTURE
RETAIL
ACCESS

NOBODY
Oct 2013
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12. Voice service supply chain management

How to build a composable value chain like TDM?




How to create SLAs? To measure conformance? How to spot
“cheats”?
Application performance hazard space – how to model?


Need underlying transport with strong-enough timing properties.
SDN/NFV – cost saint or performance sinner?
When is it “good enough”?
Substitute for other activities – how to make these
dependable enough?

Oct 2013
Who provides service assurance? (where required & applicable)
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

13. Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…



Speed of transition to cloud voice services
Boundary between managed and OTT
Application richness/application performance & quality tradeoff:


Oct 2013
Does it exist (and in which direction!)
Is it worth it?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

14. Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…





Where and when will “assured IP voice transport” emerge?
How will fixed vs mobile “cloudify”?
Where will this happen – US/Europe/ROW?
Will there be a “tipping point” and telephony gets
WhatsApp’d?
Will this be driven from the telco or IT supply chain?
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

15. Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…

Proprietary vs FOSS s/w


Supply shock to traditional telco equipment market?


Contracted in vs out – for operators; is voice a “white-label” service?
What’s the role of the big IT vendors?


“How many milliseconds am I from Amazon?” – what matters is
integration with cloud servers
How to deal with legacy business?


Cheap raw inputs; NEPs squeezed
Meaning of Oracle/Acme; Intel/Aepona, etc
B2C voice & CEBP remains a wildcard

Oct 2013
Next-gen replacement for freephone? “Social voice e-commerce”?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

16. More supply chain
questions & issues

17. Vendors: M&A, new biz models & partnerships
Oct 2013
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18. Two major trends in network infrastructure
Virtualisation of network elements (NFV)
Proprietary
Hardware
Commodity
Hardware
VMs /
Private
Cloud
Hosted /
Public
Cloud
Software-defined networks: separation of function from control (SDN)
Control
Control
Function
Function
(Can also apply to some OSS functions)
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

19. What % of future telco value comes from 3GPP?
VoLTE &
RCS
Corporate
UC
Video conf
Network
APIs
Core ntwk
& legacy
voice
Corporate
UC
Video conf
Developer
APIs
Developers
IMS,
eventually
Cisco /
MS Lync
Bluejeans
/ Vidyo etc
Twillio /
Voxeo
IMS as a
platform
Consumer
Business
OTTs
The Theory
The Reality
• Various telco business units are now disintermediating their own core network / platform
• Increasingly partnering with 3rd-party players for voice/video apps
• What % of future equipment/server need will reside in IMS/3GPP domain vs. 3rd party
equipment or cloud platforms?
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

20. Exercise

21. Exercise
Teenager
Call centre
operator -home
worker
Oct 2013
Travelling
salesperson
Grandmother
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

22. Exercise





What are their use
cases in 5 years’ time?
What happens in their
day?
What do they buy?
How is it packaged &
sold?
Who is making it
happen?
Oct 2013








Infrastructure?
Traditional service
provider or not?
APIs?
App on phone?
Web giants involved?
Device?
Connectivity?
Platforms?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

23. Get in touch
We can help you prepare for a
world where voice is a feature,
not a service. Find out more
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
twitter.com/disruptivedean
www.disruptive-analysis.com
Newsletter
Oct 2013
mail@martingeddes.com
Twitter.com/martingeddes
www.martingeddes.com
Newsletter
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013