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Two Indias
1. A Tale of Two Indias Presentation made to Semester at Sea NishaAgrawal, CEO, Oxfam India October 8, 2011
2. Context for Big Bang Liberalization in India in 1991 Balance of payments crisis in 1991 Elections in 1991 of a new Government Abandoning of piece meal approach to reforms and launching systemic reforms
3. Reforms Undertaken Trade liberalization Opening up of most industries to Foreign Direct Investment Taxation reforms Reform of the financial sector Trimming of fiscal deficit Opening up of telecom and domestic aviation to private sector
4. Result: A Jump in the GDP Growth Rate Source: Panagariya (2008)
5. Beginning of the Transformation of India And the emergence of “two Indias” A middle income country, with a large and growing middle class, that is influential in global affairs And yet an India that is still home to a large number of poor people Demanding Rights for All 5
16. Two Indias—An India Shining With the rapid growth of the last two decades, India is creating wealth at an unprecedented rate and is now home to a large number of rich and middle class people (about 200--300 million by some estimates) With its booming and large economy and its democratic politics, India is emerging as an influential power in global geopolitics (trade, aid to South Asia and Africa, investments, climate change, G20, BRICS etc) Nuclear deal; rocket to the moon, etc Demanding Rights for All 16
17. And a Bharat in darkness India is home to 350 million poor people 60% of Indians live on agriculture, which accounts for less than 16% of GDP Rates of malnutrition are as high as 50%; India has 60 million chronically malnourished children (40% of the world’s total) School attendance after class 8 declines to 50% Infant and maternal mortality rates are amongst the highest in the world Society is fragmented and many groups (women, Dalits, tribals and Muslims) face high levels of social exclusion, discrimination, and violence Demanding Rights for All 17
18. Concluding Remarks Poverty has been falling in India for the last 30 years and continues to decline steadily, if not rapidly Inequality is on the increase Improving India’s human development indicators will require systemic change A redoubling of efforts to eradicate social exclusion on the basis of caste, ethnicity, religion and gender are needed to get onto a truly inclusive development path
19. Two Indias—both true! India today is in a state of rapid transition Whatever you say about India—the opposite is also true! Demanding Rights for All 19
20. Thank you for your attention Demanding Rights for All 20
