This document discusses strategies for driving organizational change. It begins by outlining common questions and challenges around change projects, including identifying allies, overcoming obstacles, and predicting outcomes. It then discusses how evolution has programmed half of populations to be resistant to change as a survival mechanism. The key to success is focusing efforts on the small percentage of early adopters, typically 13.5% of populations. Messages should frame changes in terms of risks of failure to drive urgency while also providing optimism that success is possible. Not all can be persuaded to support change, but alternatives can achieve compliance with change through other means.

1. The
SCIENCE &
ART OF
CHANGE

2. #1
“Who are my
allies?”

3. #2
“How do I persuade
them?”

4. #3
“Where is failure
most likely to
occur?”

5. #4
“How can I
overcome this
single most critical
obstacle?”

6. #5
“How predictable
will the outcomes
be?”

7. PART I
Treats questions
#1 & #2

8. He wrote the
text book on
SURVIVAL.

9. “It is not the strongest of
the species, nor the
smartest of the species
that survive, but...”

10. “...those
most adaptive
to change.”

11. Our human ancestor.
Neither smart not strong!

12. SO, WHAT’S
THE
PROBLEM?

13. 70% OF CHANGE
PROJECTS FAIL
(HBR)

14. WHY WON’T
“THEY”
CHANGE?

15. Are those opposed to
change backward,
recalcitrant if not down and
outright stupid and do they
represent the fifth columns
in our organizations?
(As in the popular bestseller, Who moved my cheese? Johnson
1999).

16. “And one should bear in mind that
there is nothing more difficult to
execute, nor more dubious
of success, nor more dangerous to
administer than to introduce a new
order of things...”
Niccolò Machiavelli
500 years ago.

17. “... for he who introduces it has all
those who profit from the old order as
his enemies, and he has only
lukewarm allies in all those who might
profit from the new.”
Niccolò Machiavelli
500 years ago.

18. The recognition
heuristic!
Gerd Gigerenzer

19. “Green eggs
or ham?”
Dr Seuss

20. “Given Dr Seuss’ choice between green
eggs and ham, most people would
choose the ham...”
Brown, K S, 1999: ‘Decisions, decisions’ in: NewScientist (9 September) : 30-35

21. “Brown rats follow the same strategy,
preferring foods that they have smelt on
the breath of other rats. But the
Recognition heuristic doesn’t work only
with food. Imagine you are a Stone Age
man choosing a hunting party or a
computer-age woman looking for
business partners. Chances are you’ll
pick people you know, or have heard of
are good. The benefits are obvious.”
Brown, K S, 1999: ‘Decisions, decisions’ in: NewScientist (9 September) : 30-35

22. “95% of
30,000 new
consumer
Clay Christensen products fail
annually.”
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6496.html

23. “On average,
innovators
capture 2.2%
of present
value.”
Oded Shenkar

24. THE
RESULT?

25. THE
S-CURVE OF ADAPTATION
Geoffrey Moore,
Venture Capitalist

26. PRO CHANGE: 50%
40,0%$
35,0%$
30,0%$
25,0%$
20,0%$
15,0%$
10,0%$
5,0%$
0,0%$
INNOVATORS$ EARLY$ADOPTERS$ EARLY$USERS$ LATE$USERS$ LAGGARDS$
AVERSE: 50%

27. Engineers and
marketers know this,
BUT why don’t we apply
this when we want
organizations to
change?

28. 40,0%$
35,0%$
30,0%$
25,0%$
20,0%$
15,0%$
10,0%$
5,0%$
0,0%$
INNOVATORS$ EARLY$ADOPTERS$ EARLY$USERS$ LATE$USERS$ LAGGARDS$
This graph teaches us
an important lesson...

29. EVOLUTION
HEDGES IT’S
BETS!

30. 50% OF THE
POPULATION IS
PRO CHANGE,
50% CHANGE
AVERSE.

31. Don’t demonize
those that are
change averse, they
are part of
evolution’s survival
mechanism!

32. SO, WHERE
DO WE
BEGIN?

33. 40,0%$
35,0%$
30,0%$
25,0%$
20,0%$
15,0%$
10,0%$
5,0%$
0,0%$
INNOVATORS$ EARLY$ADOPTERS$ EARLY$USERS$ LATE$USERS$ LAGGARDS$
EARLY ADOPTERS,
THE CRUCIAL 13,5%

34. “Princes, and especially those who are
new, have discovered more loyalty and
more utility in those men who, at the
beginning of their rule, were considered
suspect than those who were first
trusted...”
Niccolò Machiavelli
500 years ago.

35. Skeptics are more valuable
than friends for sales
people!
HBR July-August 2012.

36. HOW TO
CAST THE
MESSAGE

37. He wrote the
text book on the
PSYCHOLOGY of
RISK.

38. “A single cockroach will
completely wreck the
appeal of a bowl
of cherries, ...
Daniel Kahneman
Nobel Laureate

39. “... but one cherry will
do nothing at all for a
bowl of cockroaches.”

40. 2:1(!)
“The threat of loss is
twice as powerful, as
the promise of
reward.”

41. Direct mail: “Don’t
miss out on a holiday
of a life time... draws
double the response
of:
“Win a holiday of a
life time...”

42. Cast the message in
survival terms: “If we fail
to change, we will lose...”
Followed by optimism:
“But if we do,
there is hope...”

43. IT’S CLEAR YOU CAN’T
PERSUADE
EVERYONE TO
CHANGE...

44. BUT!

45. THIS DOES NOT MEAN
YOU CAN’T GET THEM TO
“DO” THE CHANGE
any way!

46. HOW?

47. That’s the next
chapter...