2. 1. Migration has many influences
2. CC will have major impacts in Middle East & Africa
3. There will be profound impacts on rural society
4. It can drive urban unrest and conflict
5. One part of the Solution?
Building thriving rural economies
6. …but fraught with controversy
• Lack of systematic data
• Complex circumstances that influence decisions
economic opportunities (push and pull)
land degradation
political persecution
overpopulation
Black et al., 2011
10. “the worst 3-year drought in
the instrumental record”
Kelley et al. (2015)
Drought index
11. Water stress by country: 2040
Ratio of withdrawals
to supply > 80%
RCP8.5
WRI
12. Agricultural
and economic
shocks
Vietnam: Loc Duc Nguyen et al., 2012
South Asia: Bhatta and Aggarwal 2015
Ghana: Rademacher-Schulz et al. 2014
“migration is the
most important
coping strategy”
rainfall
variability and
food insecurity
3. There will be profound impacts on
rural society
13. Vietnam: Loc Duc Nguyen et al., 2012
Nepal: Sugden et al., 2015
Ghana: Rademacher-Schulz et al. 2014
Generally only one member migrates
60% males
Age 24
Better educated
Less poor
Largely male out-migration
Increasing gendered vulnerability
14. Loc Duc Nguyen et al., 2012
<1 year out: very unsatisfied with choice
3–5 years: most satisfied
> 5 years: less satisfied
Much back-migration
15. Rainy season migration
• “Rainfall now is unpredictable,
it stops when it is needed and
it rains when it is not needed”
• Sell assets (livestock) to cope
- vulnerability
• Rainy season migration
• Reduced labour for ag
production - vulnerability
Rademacher-Schulz et al. 2014
16. “…. will be an extremely effective way to
build long-term resilience”
Migration is a legitimate form of climate
change adaptation
$300 billion per annum
17. 26 million people per
year are internally
displaced due to natural
disasters
(INDC, 2015)
200 million coastal
inhabitants will be
displaced by 2050
Stern, 2006
Despite many exit barriers
Beegle et al. 2011
50 million
environmental
migrants in the
next decade
Sept Newsweek
(though numbers are disputed)
18. fuels the fire
of unrest
4. Migration can drive urban unrest and conflict
19. Marco Lagi, Yavni Bar-Yam, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam 2012
Food price index
“Food riots”
Deaths
20. 1.5 million displaced to cities
Large influx of Iraqi refugees
Poor governance
Poverty
Socio-political factors
Failure to address suffering of a displaced population
21. 5. One part of the
solution:
Build thriving rural
economies
24. Length of growing season
To 2090, taking 14
climate models
Four degree rise
>20% loss
5-20% loss
No change
5-20% gain
>20% gain
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy
Ff
F
Fff
Fff
f
27. • IRI provides the forecast
• Early Warning, Early Action
Strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response
International Federation
of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
28. Early Action works:
• Faster response: 1-2 days rather than 40 in 2007
• Fewer victims (30 instead of hundreds)
• Lower cost per beneficiary (30%)
Braman et al., 2013
Tall et al., 2013
29. Example: Ethiopia
• Cash transfers for work by chronically food
insecure populations
• ~1.3 million made food secure
• Growth in livestock holdings
• 9 million ha rehabilitated
• Better access to clean water
• Increase in school attendance
Productive Safety Nets
Climate change influences the underlying socioeconomic conditions that motivate households to move. This can be through extreme events, which abruptly and forcefully displace people from their land, or through more gradual processes such as sea-level rise and long-term drought
Similar scenarios have occurred in conditions as diverse as;
the United States Great Plains in the 1930s,
to the Sahel region from the 1960s to 1980s (see Reuveny, 2007).
Even the collapse of the Mayan society has been linked to recurrent drought, mass migration and subsequent conflict over resources (Diamond, 2005).
2. ….to upend their lives and embark on uncertain and potentially dangerous journeys
Beginning in the winter of 2006/2007, Syria and the greater
Fertile Crescent (FC), where agriculture and animal herding
began some 12,000 years ago (1), experienced the worst 3-year
drought in the instrumental record (2).
anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe
and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence
of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010
2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone
Population increase, increasing extraction of groundwater
The Middle-East and North African (MENA) region is already one of the least water-secure areas in the world (Maddocks et al., 2015).
In the coming decades, climate change and temperature rise are forecasted to have further significant negative impacts on food and water security (Hötzl, 2008; Chenoweth et al., 2011; Evans, 2009). More frequent extreme weather events and sporadic rainfall will threaten the region’s already stressed water supply, and increased drought occurrence is expected to lower agricultural yields
…..In Vietnam
……in 2 or 3 study areas in Bihar and coastal Bangladesh”
….. In NW Ghana
In Vietnam
In Vietnam
Christina Rademacher-Schulz, Benjamin Schraven & Edward Salifu
Mahama (2014) Time matters: shifting seasonal migration in Northern Ghana in response
to rainfall variability and food insecurity, Climate and Development, 6:1, 46-52, DOI:
10.1080/17565529.2013.830955
remittances are a source of international capital which exceeds
overseas development aid29
Food crisis and conflict map from 2009 – I think I have it somewhere
Figure 2.1: Time dependence of FAO Food Price Index from January 2004
to May 2011. Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates
of \food riots&quot; and protests associated with the major recent unrest in
North Africa and the Middle East. The overall death toll is reported in
parentheses [213{242]. Blue vertical line indicates the date, December 13,
2010, on which we submitted a report to the U.S. government, warning of
the link between food prices, social unrest and political instability [243].
Inset shows FAO Food Price Index from 1990 to 2011.
Over-crowding or unemployment puicture
Providing opportunities for rural communities to remain productively on the land can stymie mass migration, smoothing rural to urban migration rates in order to avoid volatile and rapid urbanization.’
while enhancing the absorptive capacity of cities
Simultaneously, governments must work to address the social and income inequalities that arise when rural to urban migration occurs
Climate change influences the underlying socioeconomic conditions that motivate households to move. This can be through extreme events, which abruptly and forcefully displace people from their land, or through more gradual processes such as sea-level rise and long-term drought
Innovative collaborations among governments, global donors and humanitarian organizations have already shown the way forward.
Ethiopia: Forest area in Ethiopia declines by 1% each year. 98,490,000 cubic meters of woodfuel were consumed in 2008 [FAO. 2011. State of the World’s Forests.]
Ethiopia: Complementary, predictable long-term response to food insecurity
Support to chronically food insecure populations can be designed to protect and create assets at the household and community level, as an alternative to annual emergency food appeals. In Ethiopia, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) takes a development-oriented approach to food aid that creates an assured governmental safety net and greater predictability for smallholders. By combining international donor funding (over USD 1.27 billion over the last six years) with government supplied infrastructure, labour and inputs (USD 500,000 annually), the PSNP ensures food access, stimulates markets and rehabilitates natural resources. Chronically food insecure households with able-bodied adults receive transfers of cash and food for their participation in labour-intensive public works, while other households receive unconditional transfers. The public works initiatives improve soil quality, water supply, ecological condition, infrastructure and social services, as prioritised through a participatory watershed planning approach. Now in its third phase and operational in 317 woredas (administrative districts), PSNP is reaching 7.7 million beneficiaries. The PSNP program is associated with a range of successes including graduation of approximately 1.3 million individuals from food insecurity, rehabilitation of 9 million hectares of land, growth in livestock holdings, better access to clean water, and increase in school attendance as well as enhancing the impact of other food security programs. Complementary programs address household asset building, community infrastructure development and resettlement. The World Food Program (WFP) and other partners have developed a unified stream of technical advice and a stakeholder platform provides oversight. [World Bank, 2010. Designing and implementing a rural safety net in a low income setting: Lessons learned from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program 2005–2009. Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank&apos;s assistance to social safety net. 168p.] [IFPRI, 2008. Gilligan DO, Hoddinott J, Kumar NR, Taffesse AS. An Impact Evaluation of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006. 74p.]
Mexico: Mexican agriculture accounts for 77% of water use, but only 4% of GDP and 13% of total land area. 3.2% of Mexican land is irrigated. [FAO Stat. Mexico.]
Mexico: Index-based insurance spurs investment in sustainable agriculture
Extreme weather (for example, droughts, floods and heat waves) can not only trigger crises and cause hardship in farming families, but can also inhibit investment in agriculture. Farmers are reluctant to invest in their enterprises in the face of uncertainty and risk. Index-based insurance automatically pays out to farmers when the weather exceeds an established level. There is no need for insurers to make site visits. Making sure farmers receive insurance payments quickly can minimize distress sales of assets. Index-based insurance also boosts risk tolerance among farmers, banks, microfinance lenders and agricultural industries. In Mexico, risk insurance products are well-developed, especially those targeting smaller-scale farmers. In 2010, the public insurance agency, Aseguradora Nacional de la Agricultura y Ganadería (ANAGSA), provided traditional and index-based insurance covering more than 8 million hectares—half of the area sown with annual crops and mostly rainfed maize. Farmers who borrow land from the Government, known as ejidatarios, pay much lower premiums than other farmers. Only non-irrigated major crops are eligible. Index-based insurance to safeguard the livelihoods and assets of poor producers, such as that provided by ANAGSA, usually needs to be subsidised and requires special delivery channels. Schemes to help viable farm businesses manage risk are usually provided by the private sector. [Barrett CB, Barnett BJ, Carter MR, Chantarat S, Hansen JW, Mude AG, Osgood D, Skees JR, Turvey CG, Ward MN. 2007. Poverty traps and climate risk: limitations and opportunities of index-based risk financing. IRI Technical Report No. 07-02. Columbia University: International Research Institute for Climate and Society.] [Hazell PBR, Pomerada C, Valdes A, eds. 1986. Crop Insurance for agricultural development: issues and experience. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Fuchs A, Wolff H. 2011. Concept and unintended consequences of weather index insurance: the case of Mexico. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93(2): 505-511.] [Hess U, Hazell P. 2009. Innovations in insuring the poor. Sustainability and scalability of index-based insurance for agriculture and rural livelihoods. 2020 Vision. Focus 17. Brief 5. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.]
India: Post-harvest losses of annual fruit and vegetable production are estimated at 20% due to inadequate transit packaging and refrigeration. [Choudhury. 2006.] [Mittal. 2007.]
India: National guaranteed employment bestows multiple benefits
Poverty alleviation programmes can also address environmental sustainability objectives, particularly when they involve locally appropriate, bottom-up planning. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), launched in 2006, now operates in every district in India. In 2010–2011, MGNREGA provided jobs for over 50 million rural households at a cost of USD 9.1 billion. MGNREGA entitles every adult to 100 days a year of minimum wage, unskilled manual employment on public works, such as water management, drought proofing, tree planting, land development and rural connectivity. Village-level government, the Gram Panchayat, proposes projects based on felt needs of local communities and MGNREGA priorities. Over 80% of the projects have contributed to rejuvenating the natural resource base in some way. MGNREGA jobs deliver local environmental services, such as recharging groundwater, enhancing soil fertility and increasing biomass which, in turn, contribute to climate change resilience and mitigation, as well as conserving biodiversity. The right to employment and flexible access to the scheme help small-scale farmers and landless rural households to manage risk. MGNREGA specifies that at least one-third of workers should be women. Flexible working hours that accommodate women’s unpaid work and the mandatory presence of women in Gram Panchayat committees mean that women provide more than 50% of the MGNREGA workforce. [Mahapatra R. 2010. MGNREGA: making way for women’s empowerment. www.southasia.oneworld.net/fromthegrassroots/mgnrega-paving-way-for-women-empowerment]
This company currently insures millions of farmers in India. It insures many crops.
CCAFS is working with the insurance company to design better insurance products that better help farmers manage risks.
We are working on the metrics (indices) that trigger the insurance products, These indices need to be tailored to local contexts with all their complexities, like specific crop varieties, differing planting dates and varied crop husbandry practices.
We also work on improving the weather data, as very local data is needed to provide the input into the decisions when insurance is paid out. We are exploring remote sensing data combined with meteorological data to improve the coverage of the weather data.
that is best suited to local agro-ecological conditions is just one option to provide improved rural livelihoods.