A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012

1. A 2000-watt society.
Energy use convergence
for a just and sustainable world.
Dr. Marco Morosini, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich
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2. Chasing nanogramms of pollutants in lichens of the most remote places:
Tristan da Cunha

3. Mount Makalu, Himalaya

4. Antarctic Peninsula

5. Mount Kenya

6. Gas-chromatograph, University of Siena, University of Ulm

7. My most remote travel: Zurich – New Zealand

8. Gas-chromatograph, University of Siena, University of Ulm

9. 8 t CO2 , 37 000 km
CO2 offsetting my travel
Zurich-New Zealand-Zurich:

10. Definition of the normative scenario
“2000-watt society”
In a „2000-watt society“ all energy services together
require a continuous flux of primary energy of
no more than 2000 watt per capita
(or: TPES* of 60 GJ /year per capita)
Present requirement in Europe: 6000 watt per capita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

11. Use of power or of primary energy*
- in the year 2000 (Switzerland)
- and in 2050, in the scenario „2000-watt society“
Unit per capita Year 2000 Year 2050
watt 6000 2000
(continuous flux.
1 W = 1 J /sec)
tons oil equivalent (toe) 4.5 1.5
x year
gigajoule (GJ) 190 60
x year
kilowatt hour (kW.h) 53 000 18 000
x year
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

12. Why to cap energy use per capita?
For a growing world population:
1) Non-renewables energies (fossil, atomic)
are limited, risky and environmental disruptive
2) Renewable energy technologies are not „free“.
Need input of energy, materials, and surface (and much more...)
Can not expand infinitely
3) Global distribution of energy and wealth
is strongly unequal and potentially social disruptive
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13. Why 2000 watt per capita?
1) "Biophysical“ argument:
2000 watt pc would be a precautionary limit
to avoid excessive perturbation to biodiversity and to biosphere
(Wolfram Ziegler, 1977; Hans-Peter Dürr 1993)
2) Status quo argument:
2300 watt pc is the average flux of primary energy in the world now
3) Quality of life indicators show poor correlation
with growing energy use beyond 2000 watt pc
(Vaclav Smil 2003)
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14. Outline
1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”
1. Examples in Switzerland
2. Objections and obstacles
1. Summary and conclusions
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15. 2002: The Swiss government adopts
the 2000-watt normative scenario
”The scenario of a “2000-watt society” serves as a
conception, guiding energy and climate protection policy.
In the long term, this would require a reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) to the sustainable
level of one tonne per capita,
with per-capita energy consumption of 500 watts being
derived from fossil fuels and 1500 watts from renewable
sources.”
Swiss Government
Sustainable Development Strategy 2002 (and 2008 and 2012)
www.deza.admin.ch/ressources/resource_en_23811.pdf

16. X X
http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society
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17. 1985 Josè Goldemberg
UNDP World Energy Assessment
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18. 1994, Switzerland
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19. 1998: The ETH-domain starts the research programme:
“2000 watt society – Switzerland”
Institutions of the ETH-domain:
ETH-Rat (1998) 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft - Modell Schweiz.
Strategie Nachhaltigkeit im ETH-Bereich, Wirtschaftsplattform, ETH Zürich
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20. 2000: The foundation Novatlantis is created
to foster progress towards a 2000-watt society
www.novatlantis.ch/ 20

21. 2002, 2004:
Final
reports
Jochen et al., 2002
Jochen et al., 2004
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22. 2010
“A 2000 watt society is compatible with a further growth of GDP in Switzerland”
Bretschger L. et al. 2010
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23. 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”
1. Examples in Switzerland
2. Objections and obstacles
1. Summary and conclusions
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24. 2000-2010: The vision of a 2000-watt society
spreads in Switzerland and is adopted by:
-Swiss government, (Sustainable development strategy 2002, 2008,
2012)
-Zurich population: in a town referendum 78% of the voting population of
Zurich decide to write in the town constitution the commitment to a “2000-
watt society”
-Some cantons and towns, in their energy strategies
-All major national scientific institutions: ETH, EPFL, EMPA, WSL, PSI
-Society of engineers and architects (SIA), with guidelines for
“2000-watt society buildings”
-Zurich, Basel, Geneva: Pilot towns for a “2000-watt society”
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25. http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society
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26. http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society
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27. http://www.aue.bs.ch/fachbereiche/fachuebergreifendes/nachhaltige-entwicklung/pilotregion.htm
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28. The new headquarter (1998) of the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics, Neuchatel
Demand of primary energy: 10 % of a conventional building.
Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011
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29. 29

30. 2009: New Monterosa Hut: 100% renewable energies at 2883 m asl
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Swiss Alpine Club
- 130 beds
- hot shower for 130
- photovoltaic and thermosolar panels
-emergency backup generator
(agrodiesel)
www.neuemonterosahuette.ch
www.section-monte-rosa.ch/cabanes_4.htm
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31. Since 1986: 100% renewable energy at 2126 m asl.
Markus Menn, Postman and Postbus driver in Juf, Avers Valley, Grison, CH
- chalet of 4 apartments
- heat pump (4 ground probes, 80 m)
- thermosolar panels
- hydropower from nearby plant
http://jufferien.ch/ 31

32. 1998 and 2007: Federal buildings with energy demand of only
10% of a conventional building
EAWAG e EMPA
Federal Institutes for research
Federal Office of Statistics, on water and on materials
Neuchatel, 1998 Zurich, 2007
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33. 1998: MINERGIE, the major Swiss registered label
for low-energy buildings
2010:
- MINERGIE: 19 000 certified buildings (20 million m2)
-MINERGIE-Plus: 630 buildings
-MINERGIE-Plus-ECO: 80 buildings
www.minergie.ch
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34. MINERGIE certified: Headquarters of 2 top 10 companies, Zurich
Migros Tower (nr 1 retail) Sunrise Towers (nr 2 phone company)
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35. 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”
1. Examples in Switzerland
2. Objections and obstacles
1. Summary and conclusions
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36. 2008: “Energy saving is out
In its new energy strategy the ETH abandons the 2000-watt society”
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37. Since 2008: Two diverging strategies
1) Government, cantons, towns, institutions, business:
“2000-watt society” in 2050.
And 1 t CO2 per capita
2) ETH (since 2008):
New slogan: “1-t-CO2-society” in 2100-2150.
4000-6000 watt per capita in Switzerland and worldwide
Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011
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38. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
1. “Reduce damage, not energy!”
“A limit should be put to risks and damages caused by
energy technologies, not to the level of energy use per se.
With C-poor technologies, the average use of primary
energy can grow at least up to 6000 watt pc for 9 billion
humans.”
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39. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
2. “Energy limit, nonsense!”
“A world limit of 2000 watt pc could be either:
- too low,
if environmental friendly technologies are adopted.
- too high,
if environmental unfriendly technologies
are still be used and world population soars.”
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40. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
3. “Horizon 2050 too soon!”
“2100 or 2150 more plausible.”
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41. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
4. “More electrification – and energy - necessary!”
“Fossil fuels can be phased out only through
massive electrification (e.g. private transport; heating)
Trade-off: more-electricity-for-less-carbon.”
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42. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
5. “Lifestyles, not negotiable!”
“For a 2/3 reduction of energy use,
more energy efficiency is not enough.
Strong restrictions in lifestyle would be necessary.
Unacceptable!”
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43. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
6. Rebound effect outmatches efficiency progress
Higher efficiency lowers the price of energy services,
thus boosts the overall use of energy.
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44. 2007
Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf
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45. Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November
2007, pp. 4-7
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf 45

46. Rebound effect by lighting, UK, 1900 to 2000:
Efficiency x 100 – but consumption X 1000
http://www.esc.ethz.ch/box_feeder/StrategyE.pdf
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47. If alone, efficiency is not the solution.
It is the problem
http://www.novatlantis.ch/
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48. Two strategies for reducing overall energy use
1) Efficiency:
Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies
2) Sufficiency*:
Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles
*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety
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49. Change priorities !
1) Sufficiency*:
Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles
2) Efficiency:
Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies
*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety
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50. Ecological economist Herman Daly:
“Efficiency-first does not give frugality-second –
it makes frugality less necessary.
Frugality-first gives us efficiency-second
by making it more necessary.”
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51. Examples of collective sufficiency:
- building all trains for no more than 200 km/h
- building all cars for no more than 120 km/h
www.edizioniambiente.it/eda/catalogo/libri/609/
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52. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
7. Impossible to forecast new inventions.
“Invention is the mother of necessity”
Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929
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53. 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
8. Advertising:
Advertising pressure soars
(ca. 1000 billion U$ in 2004)
Desires engineers outperform efficiency engineers.
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54. 9. Emulative consumption and growing wealth disparities
The “conspicuous consumption “ of the upper classes
stimulates the emulative consumption of the lower classes.
(s. Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929)
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56. Hervè Kempf (Paris newspaper Le Monde):
Restrictions of the material consumption of the upper classes are necessary
in order to slow down the growth of the demand by the entire population.
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hervé_Kempf
www.reporterre.fr
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57. Prof. Robert Frank, Cornell University, USA:
Income taxes to be substituted by progressive consumption taxes.
www.robert-h-frank.com/
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59. 2000
http://www.novatlantis.ch/
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60. 2005
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61. 2000: Energy use distribution
among countries and within countries
(average + upper decile + lowest decile)
Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911
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62. The energy consumption window today (left) and in 2050 (right).
The upper, ecological boundary (between 2 and 4 kW/capita) refers to the global average.
The lower boundary (600 W/capita) refers to the poorest decile of the global society in 2050.
Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911 62

63. World use of primary energy*:
Year 2000 to 2050-2100
Unsustainable transition?
12 TW 60 TW ?
2000 watt x 6 billion
6000 watt x 10 billion
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
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64. Iceland:
16 000 watt per capita average use of primary energy
80 % geothermic
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65. World use of primary energy*:
Sustainable transition?
12 TW 18 TW
2000 watt x 6 billion 2000 watt x 9 billion
IC
LIC
2000 2050
IC: Industrialized countries
LIC: Less Industrialized Countries
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply 65

66. 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”
1. Examples in Switzerland
2. Objections and obstacles
1. Summary and conclusions
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67. Summary (1/2)
1. All technological energy transformations
cause environmental costs – not only fossil fuels.
No energy technology can expand infinitely.
Renewables neither.
2. A voluntary boundary around 2000 watt pc stimulates
energy parsimony – including parsimony of fossil fuels.
3. Only a “2000 watt society” in the industrialized countries can:
a) legitimate them to ask for moderation in energy use worldwide
b) offer to developing countries a possible model for sustainable
energy consumption.
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68. Summary (2/2)
4. Efficiency (“doing more with less”) is ambivalent:
- it can lower energy use in saturable sectors
(es. heating, cooling, production)
- but generally it boosts energy use
in the society as a whole and in non saturable sectors
(e.g. private transport, consumer goods, leisure travel)
5. Sufficiency (“doing less”) is necessary and accessible through:
- voluntary moderation (stimulated by mass communication)
- incentives, disincentives, prescriptions
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69. Conclusions
1)For the political community:
“Sufficiency first”
should raise to a priority in the political and cultural arena.
2)For the scientific community:
Technologists and economists should be
more aware of the limited – or counterproductive - effect
of efficiency progress, if this is not accompanied
by a “sufficiency first” policy.
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70. Symposium for Wolfgang Sachs
Berlin, May 21-22, 2012
„Sufficiency Economy
What is missing on the Rio Agenda…“
Organised by:
-Wuppertal Institute
-Heinrich Böll Foundation
Programme:
http://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/Agenda%20Symposium%20für%20Wolfgang%20Sach
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72. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better
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73. Uso di energia finale pro capite (kWh * anno) in Svizzera
1980-2009
Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011
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74. Emissioni di gas a effetto serra in Svizzera
(Mt CO2 equivalenti) 1990-2009
Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011
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