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Great Plains Thunder Express
21st Century style
2012 drought

1930s dust bowl
Great Plains aquifer hot spots increasing
2050 Water Supply Sustainability Index
with climate impact

(no. countries)

2080 Temperature Rise - BAU
1930s Dust bowl - Reprisal in our future?
Business-as-Usual CO2 Emissions Trigger
Great Plains Dust Bowlification this Century

Dallas, South Dakota 1936

Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s
Again this century, but worse
Time to Think Beyond the Box
to Home on the Range
95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures	
  of	
  Merit
Great	
  Plains	
  area
1,200,000	
  mi2
Provide	
  100%	
  U.S.	
  energy
400,000	
  3MW	
  wind	
  turbines
PlaCorm	
  footprint
6	
  mi2
Large	
  Wyoming	
  Strip	
  Mine
>6	
  mi2
Total	
  WindFarm	
  spacing	
  area	
  

37,500	
  mi2

SLll	
  available	
  for	
  farming	
  
and	
  prairie	
  restoraLon
90%+	
  (34,000	
  mi2)
Cost-­‐free	
  US	
  CO2	
  emissions
80%	
  reduced	
  at	
  zero	
  cost	
  
US Onshore Wind Potential
(TWh, billions of kWh)

for comparison
U.S. total power consumption in 2012 was 5,000 TWh
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70% of
Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to
8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural communities,
while  also  enabling  one  of  world’s  largest  
restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South
Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =
Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
10
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare

Crop revenue

Govt. subsidy
Wind profits

non-wind farm

windpower farm
$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

$0

$60

windpower royalty

$200

$0

farm commodity revenues

$50

$64

govt. subsidy
>6	
  	
  mi2	
  
1	
  Wyoming	
  Strip	
  Mine
13,125	
  mi2
land	
  disturbed	
  by	
  surface	
  mining
40%	
  of	
  U.S.	
  electricity

6	
  	
  mi2	
  
plaCorm	
  footprint	
  400k	
  turbines
3,750	
  	
  mi2	
  
spacing	
  area
100%	
  of	
  U.S.	
  electricity 12
g
WA
MT

AK

ME

ND
MN

OR

MI

ID
WI

SD

IA

NE

PA

UT

IL
KS

MO

AZ

OK
NM

TX

NJ
MD DE

VA
NC

AR

SC
MS

MA
CTRI

WV

TN

HI
HI
HI

IN
KY

HI
HI

OH

CO

CA

NY

MI

WY

NV

VTNH

AL

shortage
Statewide

GA

Regional
LA

AK

Local
FL

None
No response or uncertain

GAO Survey of Likely Water Shortages
this Decade under Average Conditions

Figure IV-1. Survey of Likely Water Shortages over the Next Decade under Average
Conditions (GAO, 2003)

29

Fossil & nuclear power accounted
for 41% total water use - 143
million gals/d or 52 billion gals in
2005.

100% U.S. power from wind
farms would have a total water
use 95% less.

13
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

offshore
area
needed for
100%

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage refer to storage of
Solar-battery and Wind-battery of these intermittent renewable the
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
intermittent solar & wind in plug-in electric vehicles
COMPARISON power require 30 to 60 times less land area than
Solar PV & Wind OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
biomass, require 95% less water, and produce zero emissions
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Potential Synergisms
Deep-rooted, soil-retaining, water-regenerating,
carbon-storing, biodiversity rich Prairie grasslands

“I bequeath myself to the dirt, to grow from the grass I love; If you want me again, look for me under your boot-soles.”
Walt Whitman
Restoring soil, grasslands, water and climate
Wes Jackson, The Land
Institute, why native
grasses are the
perennial favorite
Ted Turner, bison entrepreneur
Reviving the great migrations
Preserving the praire potholes
Great Plains: Dust Bowlification or Dollarization?

ActionMapping Wind farms
for Rural Prosperity & Urban Clean Energy
EXISTING
75% land farmed/ranched
5% revenues of Great Plains
Dust Bowlification looming
Water Aquifer deep decline
OPPORTUNE
3% land in Wind Farms
10+% revenues Great Plains
100% US power generation
Dust Bowl prevention option
Prairie grasses/bison option
Water Regeneration option
Existing U.S. Transmission Grid System

NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012

(a) Existing transmission grid representation in ReEDS
Designed for Fossil, Nuclear & Hydro Power
NOT Wind & Solar Power
Opportune New Transmission Links

NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012

Figure ES-9. New transmission capacity additions and conceptual location in the 80%
RE-ITI scenario

Designed for Wind & Solar Power Expansion
On the Verge of Convergences

GRIDS

BUILDINGS

VEHICLES

Smart Integration Eliminating Oil Dependency

LINKING 1 TW Smart Grid w/ 3 TW Vehicle fleet
PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize largescale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with
3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus
8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity)
providing operating reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable
energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel
84%  of  the  nation’s  cars,  pickup  trucks,  and  SUVs  (198  million).

ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion
gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million
barrels per day).

OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings

AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,
40% urban PM10, 80% SOx;
BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal
generation). higher coal generation - but none if from wind power.
ONLY IF from
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional
U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
Accelerating RE-powered Electric Vehicles
http://evworld.com/blogs.cfm?authorid=226&blogid=1123
Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally
Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015

Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines
Windy	
  Grassland	
  regions	
  of	
  the	
  World

Source:	
  h.p://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html	
  
20 Year 100% Global RE Scenario

IF conventional,
then 17 TW

OR

WIND TURBINES - 5MW - 1% in place

25%/yr
growth rate

SOLAR PV ROOFTOPS - .003MW - <1% in place

40%/yr
growth rate
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER - 300MW- <1% in place

SOLAR PV POWER PLANTS - 300MW - <1% in place

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by
2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

IF RE + DeepDive Efficiency
then 11.5 TW
Spurring Emission-Free Cities by Using

COLLABORATIVE	
  INNOVATION	
  	
  NETWORKs

COINs

Ad hoc self-organized groups of
Self-Motivated Citizens, geographically dispersed,
focused on accomplishing a specific goal
Web-led COINs using smart devices to create ASSETs Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge
Leveraging the funnel of knowledge and learning-by-doing
COIN MAPPING Rural & Urban ASSETs
Geospatial Mapping
Web-based visualization of city ASSETS:
harnessing deep efficiency savings, onsite solar,
locally distributed power and microgrid network.

Tech-knowledge roadmapping
Web-accessible tool library encompassing spectrum of resources for learning,
applied knowledge, capacity building, skills development, training, specialized
competencies, across a myriad of relevant domains (technical, financial, policy,
regulatory, communications, etc)

Action mapping
Identify the goal.
Identify what needs doing to reach that
goal.
Identify actions for people to do.
Identify the effective information
required to complete the action.

emission-free city
ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS
ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE

Goal of becoming emission free

In collaboration with the Association for the Advancement of
Sustainable Higher Education
ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS
ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE

TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAP & MAKE
EMISSION FREE COMMUNITIES

Mayors Leading the Way on Climate Protection
1,060 U.S. Cities as of 3/22/2013

70% of U.S. cities
with 30,000+
citizens are
signatories to the
Mayors’ Climate
Protection
Commitment
Documentary Production Team
Chris Tribble

Michael P Totten
Contact:

Michael P Totten
totten.michael@gmail.com
1-303-974-8676
http://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelptotten

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Great plains win-win-wind strategy 100% renewable US power michael p totten april 20 2013

  • 1. Great Plains Thunder Express 21st Century style
  • 3. Great Plains aquifer hot spots increasing
  • 4. 2050 Water Supply Sustainability Index with climate impact (no. countries) 2080 Temperature Rise - BAU
  • 5. 1930s Dust bowl - Reprisal in our future?
  • 6. Business-as-Usual CO2 Emissions Trigger Great Plains Dust Bowlification this Century Dallas, South Dakota 1936 Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s Again this century, but worse
  • 7. Time to Think Beyond the Box to Home on the Range
  • 8. 95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures  of  Merit Great  Plains  area 1,200,000  mi2 Provide  100%  U.S.  energy 400,000  3MW  wind  turbines PlaCorm  footprint 6  mi2 Large  Wyoming  Strip  Mine >6  mi2 Total  WindFarm  spacing  area   37,500  mi2 SLll  available  for  farming   and  prairie  restoraLon 90%+  (34,000  mi2) Cost-­‐free  US  CO2  emissions 80%  reduced  at  zero  cost  
  • 9. US Onshore Wind Potential (TWh, billions of kWh) for comparison U.S. total power consumption in 2012 was 5,000 TWh
  • 10. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while  also  enabling  one  of  world’s  largest   restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture) 10
  • 11. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy Wind profits non-wind farm windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 govt. subsidy
  • 12. >6    mi2   1  Wyoming  Strip  Mine 13,125  mi2 land  disturbed  by  surface  mining 40%  of  U.S.  electricity 6    mi2   plaCorm  footprint  400k  turbines 3,750    mi2   spacing  area 100%  of  U.S.  electricity 12
  • 13. g WA MT AK ME ND MN OR MI ID WI SD IA NE PA UT IL KS MO AZ OK NM TX NJ MD DE VA NC AR SC MS MA CTRI WV TN HI HI HI IN KY HI HI OH CO CA NY MI WY NV VTNH AL shortage Statewide GA Regional LA AK Local FL None No response or uncertain GAO Survey of Likely Water Shortages this Decade under Average Conditions Figure IV-1. Survey of Likely Water Shortages over the Next Decade under Average Conditions (GAO, 2003) 29 Fossil & nuclear power accounted for 41% total water use - 143 million gals/d or 52 billion gals in 2005. 100% U.S. power from wind farms would have a total water use 95% less. 13
  • 14. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol offshore area needed for 100% Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage refer to storage of Solar-battery and Wind-battery of these intermittent renewable the resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles intermittent solar & wind in plug-in electric vehicles COMPARISON power require 30 to 60 times less land area than Solar PV & Wind OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES biomass, require 95% less water, and produce zero emissions Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  • 16. Deep-rooted, soil-retaining, water-regenerating, carbon-storing, biodiversity rich Prairie grasslands “I bequeath myself to the dirt, to grow from the grass I love; If you want me again, look for me under your boot-soles.” Walt Whitman
  • 17. Restoring soil, grasslands, water and climate
  • 18. Wes Jackson, The Land Institute, why native grasses are the perennial favorite
  • 19. Ted Turner, bison entrepreneur
  • 20. Reviving the great migrations
  • 22. Great Plains: Dust Bowlification or Dollarization? ActionMapping Wind farms for Rural Prosperity & Urban Clean Energy EXISTING 75% land farmed/ranched 5% revenues of Great Plains Dust Bowlification looming Water Aquifer deep decline OPPORTUNE 3% land in Wind Farms 10+% revenues Great Plains 100% US power generation Dust Bowl prevention option Prairie grasses/bison option Water Regeneration option
  • 23. Existing U.S. Transmission Grid System NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012 (a) Existing transmission grid representation in ReEDS Designed for Fossil, Nuclear & Hydro Power NOT Wind & Solar Power
  • 24. Opportune New Transmission Links NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012 Figure ES-9. New transmission capacity additions and conceptual location in the 80% RE-ITI scenario Designed for Wind & Solar Power Expansion
  • 25. On the Verge of Convergences GRIDS BUILDINGS VEHICLES Smart Integration Eliminating Oil Dependency LINKING 1 TW Smart Grid w/ 3 TW Vehicle fleet
  • 26. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize largescale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity) providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
  • 27. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84%  of  the  nation’s  cars,  pickup  trucks,  and  SUVs  (198  million). ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). higher coal generation - but none if from wind power. ONLY IF from Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
  • 30. Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015 Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines
  • 31. Windy  Grassland  regions  of  the  World Source:  h.p://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html  
  • 32. 20 Year 100% Global RE Scenario IF conventional, then 17 TW OR WIND TURBINES - 5MW - 1% in place 25%/yr growth rate SOLAR PV ROOFTOPS - .003MW - <1% in place 40%/yr growth rate CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER - 300MW- <1% in place SOLAR PV POWER PLANTS - 300MW - <1% in place Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009 IF RE + DeepDive Efficiency then 11.5 TW
  • 33. Spurring Emission-Free Cities by Using COLLABORATIVE  INNOVATION    NETWORKs COINs Ad hoc self-organized groups of Self-Motivated Citizens, geographically dispersed, focused on accomplishing a specific goal
  • 34. Web-led COINs using smart devices to create ASSETs Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge Leveraging the funnel of knowledge and learning-by-doing
  • 35. COIN MAPPING Rural & Urban ASSETs Geospatial Mapping Web-based visualization of city ASSETS: harnessing deep efficiency savings, onsite solar, locally distributed power and microgrid network. Tech-knowledge roadmapping Web-accessible tool library encompassing spectrum of resources for learning, applied knowledge, capacity building, skills development, training, specialized competencies, across a myriad of relevant domains (technical, financial, policy, regulatory, communications, etc) Action mapping Identify the goal. Identify what needs doing to reach that goal. Identify actions for people to do. Identify the effective information required to complete the action. emission-free city
  • 36. ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE Goal of becoming emission free In collaboration with the Association for the Advancement of Sustainable Higher Education
  • 37. ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAP & MAKE EMISSION FREE COMMUNITIES Mayors Leading the Way on Climate Protection 1,060 U.S. Cities as of 3/22/2013 70% of U.S. cities with 30,000+ citizens are signatories to the Mayors’ Climate Protection Commitment
  • 38. Documentary Production Team Chris Tribble Michael P Totten