Presentation I gave to The Nature Conservancy (TNC) state leaders on energy efficiency, solar and wind power as America's best energy future

1. GLOBAL WIND POWER
Michael Totten, Conservation International
TNC Wind Power Workshop
Jan. 24, 2007

3. Normative Criteria
1. Optimizing the delivery of efficient energy services at or near the point of
use as the key goal, rather than simply expanding ever-larger resource
supplies shipped over ever-longer distances at ever-higher expense;
2. Environmentally and ecologically friendly and avoiding adverse impacts
(to terrestrial, freshwater, marine ecosystems);
3. Economically attractive now, with massive growth opportunity in the
foreseeable future (speed facilitated by well-crafted incentives, R&D,
policies and regulations);
4. Low-risk, risk-resistant and risk-manageable — against inflation, price
spikes, sudden disruptions, acts of nature or malicious attack;
5. Resilient — if the energy system (water, transport) fails, it fails gracefully,
not catastrophically, and is rapidly recoverable;
6. Enhancing climate, air and water quality;
7. Resulting in minimal adverse impacts and capable of further reducing
those externalities through continuous innovation and best practices; and
8. Robust experience curves — potential for significant, ongoing
improvements in cost, performance, reduced footprint, generation of
positive externalities, etc., through ongoing R&D and cumulative learning
experiences.

4. WIND 1 to 2% of the
sun’s energy
is converted
into wind
energy.
50 to 100X more energy than
converted into biomass by
all plants on earth.

5. Global Power Investment will Misallocate Half
of $48 Trillion – to the detriment of customers
• Over 30-year lifespan of these power plants
consumers will pay $48 trillion (at 5¢/kWh)
TWh Projected World Electricity
(billion kWh)
Generation 2030 • Alternatively, investing in lower cost efficiency
14,000
improvements in the manufacturing of high
12,000
coal efficiency appliances, consumer electronics, lights,
natural
motors, buildings, etc. could save $24 trillion of
10,000
gas this projected growth
8,000
• Money left in customers wallets by avoiding
higher utility bills
6,000
large
• Money spent on retail purchases of a myriad of
4,000
hydro high efficiency devices
nuclear
other
renews • Dramatic reduction of CO2 emissions (potentially
2,000
oil one-fourth of 2030 global energy emissions) as an
ancillary co-benefit of efficiency gains
-
Source: Intl Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004

6. Less Utility Power Plants through
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants
$
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines

7. Avoided Emissions & Savings
Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP)
Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)
(1.8 billion kWh per year)
Eliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year
Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coal
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx
Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2
Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy
metals
Avoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge
Saves 45 billion gallons waters
Accrues $67.5 million annual savings
Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year
[1]
Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and
Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdf
T T

8. Biggest Retail EPP of Them All:
Supplier Chain Factories & Products
Demand - Facts Outcomes
Industrial electric motor 2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal to
systems consume 40% of 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030
electricity worldwide – over 7 worldwide.
trillion kWh per year. $240 billion savings per decade, freed up
Motors consume 60% of China’s from the utility sector by capturing this
total electricity, 50% in USA. super mega-EPP in manufacturing
facilities.
Efficiency savings of 30% or
more highly cost-effective. $200 to $400 billion savings per decade in
avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
Support SEEEM (Standards SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive
for Energy Efficiency of market transformation strategy to promote efficient
Electric Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide

9. Megadamus negavitae
7% of total global GHG emissions, rising
to 15% given potential expansion

10. Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs
compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Km2/
MW Emissions: Emissions:
Reservoir Generating Emissions
Hydro CC Gas
DAM Area Capacity (vs Ratio
(MtCO2- (MtCO2-
(km2) (MW) wind eq/yr) eq/yr)
Hydro/Gas
0.1)
Tucuruí 24330 4240 5.7 8.60 2.22 3.87
Curuá- 72 40 1.8 0.15 0.02 7.50
Una
Balbina 3150 250 12.6 6.91 0.12 57.58
Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International
Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

11. Freshwater Fish Species Threatened
% Fish species 8 times more
threatened than mammals
or birds in the USA

12. NUCLEAR
POWER?
The fascination with nuclear power is due to the fact
that 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal

13. Unfortunately, uranium-generated electricity carries
some intrinsic downsides that are inherently
intractable:
1) Ever-present target of nuclear facilities for
military or terrorist attack;
2) Dual civilian-military nature of a nuclear
reactor;
3) Proliferation of weapons-grade material;
4) Diversion of uranium fuel for military or
terrorist use in fabricating atomic bombs;
5) Contaminant fuel wastes that remain
radioactive for millennia; and,
6) Generating systems that can fail
catastrophically, with disastrous human
health and ecological consequences lasting for
generations, and economic impacts lasting for
centuries
Displacing coal use worldwide by 2100 would require constructing a 100 MW
nuclear reactor every 10 hours for the entire century. It would require
reprocessing weapons-grade plutonium for use in breeder reactors by 2050.
This would produce 5 million kilograms of plutonium per year, equal to 500,000
atomic bombs, annually circulating in global commerce.

14. In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met
simply by applying PV to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking
lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other
dual-use scenarios.
We wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to
make PV our primary energy source!

15. Global Wind Speed extrapolated to 80 meter height
averaged over all days of 2000 at sounding locations with >20 valid readings.
72 TW global wind power generated at locations with mean annual wind
speeds 6.9 m/s at 80 m. 20% captured could satisfy 100% of world energy
demand for all purposes, and >7X world electricity needs (in 2000).
Source: Archer & Jacobson, Evaluation of Global Wind Power, Journal Of Geophysical Research, V. 110, 2005.

16. Global Wind Energy
Council (GWEC)
www.gwec.net

17. Global Cumulative Wind Power 1995-2005
(MW & TWh)
124 TWh
For context: 18,000 TWh of global electricity generated in 2005 from all
sources, including 2,800 TWh from nuclear and 2,800 from hydro.
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/

18. Global Cumulative Wind Power 2005-2050
(MW & TWh) 7,900
TWh
6,900
TWh
5,200
TWh
2,600
TWh
124 340
TWh TWh
Advanced Scenario Assumptions: 20% annual growth, progress ratio 0.90 to
0.98, global capacity factor 30%, 1/3rd of global electricity (w/ high efficiency).
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/

19. Regional Breakdown: Advanced Scenario [GW]
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/

20. Wind Power Advanced Scenario
INVESTMENT: By 2030, annual investment value of the
wind energy market would be $110 billion.
GENERATION COSTS: By 2020, a good site would be 4 to
5 ¢/kWh, and a low average wind site 5 to 7.7 ¢/kWh.
EMPLOYMENT: By 2030, 1.4 million jobs, and 2.8 million
by 2050.
CO2 SAVINGS: By 2030, 3.1 billion tons per year,
increasing to 4.7 billion tons per year by 2050. [Total CO2 in
2006 ~8 billion tons]
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/

21. CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario
In 2005 China reset 2020 wind target to 30 GW. An increase of 10 GW from
the goal of just a year earlier. Raises annual growth rate from 20% to 24%.
Wind industry experts are confident that 170 GW is achievable by 2020,
and 330 GW by 2030. The required 39% annual growth rate is feasible,
they argue, IF utility pricing policies can be reformed.

22. CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario
NREL wind mapping of vast areas of eastern China at 50-m height found 4% of
the mapped LAND area could support 580 GW at a conservatively estimated 5
MW/km2(good-to-excellent wind resources).
NREL estimates windy MARINE sections could support >660 GW, and 4X this
figure Including moderate wind resources.
More studies are required to accurately assess the wind potential, considering
shipping lanes, water depth, existing transmission grid and accessibility.

23. Brazil Advanced Wind Potential
Rio Grande do Sul
Simulations, performed in 1999 by CEPEL (Brazil’s Electric Energy Research
Center), estimate a Brazilian wind potential of 144 GW.
This assumes average wind velocities of more than 7m/s, only on-shore, using
wind turbines of 600 kW. The Brazilian Center of Wind Energy (CBEE)
indicates wind power generation is between 4 and 8.4 ¢/kWh.
Yet, only 28 MW installed by 2005, and 200 MW by 2006.
Wind Energy ATLAS of Brazil, Atlas do Potencial Eólico Brasileiro, Antonio Leite de Sá, Electric Energy Research Center – CEPEL, DEWI (German
Institute of Wind Energy), Magazine 19, Aug. 2001. Wind Economics, CBEE, www.eolica.com.br/index_ing.html

24. Brazil Advanced Wind Potential
Along the 630 km coastline of
Rio Grande do Sul there are
986 km2 of sand and dunes,
fanned by intense and constant
winds.
winter fall
Also inland, many winds come
together with the Minuano to
create one of the most
promising sources of wind
power in Brazil.
Between 55GW and 115 GW is
available for areas with winds summer spring
>7.0m/s, at heights 75m and
100m, respectively. Rio Grande do Sul
Wind Energy ATLAS of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, Secretariat of Energy, Mines and Communications

25. Rio Grande do Sul Wind Potential
The 55-115 GW of estimated wind power for Rio Grande do Sul is relatively
high. The total Brazilian hydro resources (inventoried plus estimated) is 143
GW, and Brazil’s total installed capacity was 77 GW in 2001.
Source: Rio Grande do Sul Wind Atlas, http://www.semc.rs.gov.br/atlas/ENGandiag.htm

26. US wind power capacity end of 2002 (MW)

27. Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/

28. Of the practically exploitable U.S. wind resources of moderate or better
quality, 95% are located in the sparsely populated 12 Great Plains states,
where the generation potential is 3X total U.S. electricity generation.

29. Figures of Merit
Great Plains
1,200,000 mi2
100% U.S. electricity
400,00 wind turbines
Platform footprint
6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2
Total Wind farm area
37,500 mi2
34,000 mi2 still available
farming-ranching-prairie
CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40%

30. -

31. 1. Unsuitable – lands where
development is prohibited
(Appalachian Trail corridors, for
example) or quot;high conflictquot; areas
2. Less than ideal – federal or state
conservation lands rated quot;medium
conflictquot;
3. Conditionally favorable –
Conservation or open space lands
rated quot;low conflict,quot; or open space or
private lands rated quot;medium conflictquot;:
4. Most favorable – Unrestricted private
land and quot;low conflictquot; areas
Although agriculture controls about 70% of the land area in all three sub-regions of the Great Plains
(Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming,
Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas), the
contribution of agriculture to the Gross Regional Product in very small. Agriculture is very
important in the region for many reasons, but it is not a major player in the regional economy
compared to other industries. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

32. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
non-wind farm
Wind profits
windpower farm
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
[Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April

33. Potential Synergisms
2 additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil
carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from
selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into
these prairie
grasslands -- which
naturally co-evolved
together for millennia -
- generating a
potential revenue
stream from marketing
high-value organic,
free-range beef.
Also More Resilient
to Climate-triggered
Droughts

34. Water Use in Energy Production
Water Consumption (liters per MWh)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Wind turbine Solar-electric combined cycle coal-fired nuclear