MSLGROUP EMEA Newsletter on Energy November 2012

ENERGY
NEWSLETTER
Volume 1 - Issue 2 | November 2012

18 months on from Fukushima,
what does Europe’s energy future look like?

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

PAGE PAGE PAGE

03 04 07
Introduction MSLGROUP can Flip-flopping on nuclear energy
make the difference bodes ill for Japan’s future
Popular opinion in Japan is rapidly turning anti-nuclear. The
Government tries to reflect this in its energy policy but has run into
major opposition inside and outside of Japan.

PAGE New Italian National Energy Strategy: PAGE Poland heading for
18 it’s time to join the conversation
In a difficult and uncertain macroeconomic scenario,
21 nuclear power – will it work?
While Germany is implementing its phase out from the
all the country’s efforts must be geared towards nuclear program and Japan has just announced its decision
the resumption of sustainable growth. to close its reactors too, Poland is simultaneously preparing
to launch its first nuclear power plant by the end of 2023.

Contents

Introduction 03

MSLGROUP can make the difference 04

Where we are 06

Flip-flopping on nuclear energy bodes ill for Japan’s future 07

UK’s energy future post-Fukushima 10

Turbines in troubled waters 12

Germany’s Energy Shift:
Does less haste mean more speed? 14

Post-Fukushima issues for France’s energy transition 16

New Italian National Energy Strategy: it’s time to join
the conversation 18

Poland heading for nuclear power – will it work? 21

How could Europe save more energy? 23

The Dutch energy landscape: towards a hybrid policy? 25

2
Energy Volume 1 issue
Newsletter November 2012

Introduction

18 months on from Fukushima – what does Europe’s
energy future look like?
As 2012 draws to a close, there is time to pause and reflect on how the tragic
events 18 months ago at Fukushima have changed the nature of the world’s
energy market and nowhere more so than in Europe. At a time of such profound
change, one might have expected a unanimity of approach – particularly given
the dirigiste nature of the European Union – but a quick review of the European
landscape reveals that, on this occasion, nothing could be further from the truth.
Almost every country in the European Union has a unilateral, seemingly
un-coordinated and often contrary position in respect of energy policy and their
reaction to Fukushima has only amplified this. For example, Germany, which
has always been sceptical of nuclear energy, boldly came out and committed to
closing its fleet of reactors in record time, pinning its hopes on developing its
leadership in renewables to plug the gap. With nuclear accounting for nearly 18%
of demand, that is a big gap to fill.

By contrast,there are countries like the UK and Poland, that remain quite bullish
on nuclear. Yet the UK’s nuclear programme is faltering, due to the Government’s
resistance to helping underwrite the associated costs and the reluctance of the
private sector to commit to such huge and uncertain liabilities. You even have the
bizarre situation in Sweden where environmental pressures have called the future
of hydro power, hitherto the poster child of green energy, into question.

Welcome, therefore, to MSLGROUP’s latest energy newsletter where some of my
learned colleagues have lifted the curtain on how Fukushima has shaken up the
European energy landscape. There are no easy solutions, especially in this era of
carbon reduction, and it is also clear that there is no single answer. Undoubtedly,
there needs to be some hard headed decision making at the highest level to
give direction and leadership in this critical area. Whatever happens, it is pretty
clear that communications professionals will be kept busy for decades to come,
explaining the impacts and outcomes to consumers and citizens alike.

Nick Bastin
Managing Director, Capital MSL,
Head of Energy, MSLGROUP EMEA

3

Our team

Anders Kempe
Regional president MSLGROUP EMEA
Chairman JKL Group

anders.kempe@jklgroup.com

MSLGROUP can make the difference

Nick Bastin
Head of MSLGROUP EMEA Energy Practice UK

nick.bastin@capitalmsl.com

MSLGROUP is one of the world’s top five PR and events networks,
employing more than 3,400 people in 22 countries around the world.

We are Publicis Groupe’s speciality communications and engagement
group, advisors in all aspects of communication strategy: from
corporate PR to employee communications, from public affairs to
reputation management and from crisis communications to event
Per Ola Bosson management.
Sweden

per.ola.bosson@jklgroup.com
We work for a quarter of the top-100 most valuable brands globally.

Specialist expertise
MSLGROUP’s EMEA Energy Practice is a leader in advising companies
from Europe and around the world on communications issues in the
energy sector. Across 15 countries and offices, our European network
supports clients that range from large publicly listed Fortune 500
Alessandro Chiarmasso organisations, to small, privately held companies. We currently advise a
Italy
third of the energy companies in the Eurotop 100.
alessandro.chiarmasso@mslgroup.com

We offer in-depth sector understanding

From well head To wall socket

George Godsal
UK

george.godsal@mslgroup.com

From nuclear To renewable

From crisis To talent

Pierre-Samuel Guedj
France

pierre-samuel.guedj@consultants.publicis.fr

4

Our team

Florian Wastl
Germany

florian.wastl@mslgroup.com

We also understand the key communications issues that keep energy
companies awake at night:

License to operate

Sustainability

Deep water
NIMBY
Fukushima

Financing
Emissions
Carbon
Peter Steere

Sustainability
Super Critical
Brussels/ Sweden Sustainability

Drilling
Coal
NIMBY

Water
Deep water
peter.steere@jklgroup.se

Financing

Talent
Financing License to operate

Water
NIMBY Financing
Fracking
Regulation Biodiesel
Regulation Responsibility Sustainability

License to operate Drilling
Renewable

NIMBY Fukushima
Deep water

License to operate Financing

Carbon
Renewable

Talent Water
Fracking

Coal

Wind
We can help to
manage the risks
Pawel Tomczuk
Poland

ptomczuk@publicrelations.pl

Holistic communications solutions
With both breadth and depth of energy communications expertise in
Europe’s key markets, we share the belief that effective, best practice
communications can deliver value to stakeholders across the energy
value chain.
Erik Martens
Netherlands

erik.martens@msl.nl We look at the bigger
picture in the context of
energy market issues
Creativity Corporate
Brand
• We help energy
organisations to find
Digital/
Social media
better ways of
Crisis
communicating
complex messages to
M&A, IPO,
multiple stakeholders
restructuring Talent often across multiple
Lotte Glad markets
Norway
Investor Public affairs
relations
lotte.glad@jklgroup.com and regulatory • We deliver creative
relations
solutions that drive
greater engagement
with key audiences

If you want to find out more about the work we do, or enquire as to how
we might be able to help, don’t hesitate to contact a team member in
your market – or contact Nick Bastin at nick.bastin@capitalmsl.com
Helmut Kranzmaier
Germany

Helmut.Kranzmaier@cnc-communications.com

5

Where we are

EMEA
AMERICAS 41 offices and
20 offices and over 1,150
over 700 employees
employees

Helsinki
Warsaw ASIA
Stockholm (2) SWEDEN 40 offices and
Gothenburg FINLAND

over 1,550
Oslo (2)
NORWAY

RUSSIAN
FEDERATION employees
Boston CANADA Copenhagen (2) ESTONIA

LATVIA

New York (6)
DENMARK LITHUANIA

UNITED
IRELAND

Breda
KINGDOM
BELARUS

Toronto GERMANY
POLAND

UKRAINE
CZECH

Seattle (2)
REPUBLIC
KAZAKHSTAN
FRANCE HUNGARY
AUSTRIA MOLDOVA
MONGOLIA

London (5)
ROMANIA

SERBIA
MONTENEGRO

Paris (8)
BULGARIA GEORGIA UZBEKISTAN

Chicago (2)
ITALY ALBANIA KYRGYZSTAN NORTH
BAKU KOREA
UNITED STATES PORTUGAL GREECE
OF AMERICA SPAIN TURKEY TURKMENISTAN JAPAN
TAJIKISTAN

SYRIA SOUTH
CHINA

Tokyo (3)
KOREA

Brussels (2) MOROCCO
LEBANON

ISRAEL
JORDAN
IRAQ
IRAN
AFGHANISTAN

Amsterdam PAKISTAN NEPAL Seoul (2)
Taipei
ALGERIA
WESTERN LIBYA

Geneva
EGYPT
SAHARA SAUDI BANGLADESH
ARABIA INDIA
MEXICO

PUERTO RICO MAURITANIA
BURMA

LAOS
Shanghai (4)
Los Angeles (2) Beijing (4)
OMAN

Monaco
MALI NIGER CHAD YAMEN
SENEGAL

Hong Kong (2)
VIETNAM

San Francisco
SUDAN
BURKINA

Cologne Dubai
CAMBODIA PHILIPPINES

Chengdu
GUINEA BENIN NIGERIA
TOGO SHRI LANKA
ETHIOPIA
VENEZUELA IVORY GHANA CENTRAL AFRICAN

Frankfurt (2) Abu Dhabi
LIBERIA COAST REPUBLIC

Guangzhou (2)
BRUNEI
MALAYSIA
SOMALIA

Atlanta
COLOMBIA
UGANDA

ECUADOR Hamburg GABON CONGO
DEM. REP.
KENYA

Detroit
INDONESIA

Milan (2)
CONGO

Ahmedabad
PAPUA NEW
GUINEA
TANZANIA

Washington DC PERU
BRAZIL Munich (2) Mumbai (2) Singapore
Kuala Lumpur
ANGOLA

BOLIVIA
Rome ZAMBIA
Pune (2)
MADAGASCAR

New Delhi (4)
MOZAMBIQUE

Berlin (2) NAMIBIA
ZIMBABWE

PARAGUAY BOTSWANA

Johannesburg AUSTRALIA

CHILE
SWAZILAND
Bangalore (2)
URUGUAY
SOUTH AFRICA
Hyderabad (2)
ARGENTINA
Chennai (2) NEW
ZEALAND

Sao Paulo Kolkata
Latin America Buenos Aires
50+ employees
MSLGROUP Office

Affiliate Office

6

Flip-flopping on nuclear energy
bodes ill for Japan’s future
Japan has gone back to the drawing board on whether to let nuclear power stay in
its energy mix. Japan is in desperate need of a more serious debate on its energy
future. It must bring to the table representatives from all ends of society.

Jochen Legewie
Jochen.Legewie@cnc-communications.com

Popular opinion in Japan is rapidly Japan were dashed. In the face of
turning anti-nuclear. The Government strong opposition from the business
tries to reflect this in its energy policy community, municipalities and
but has run into major opposition inside prefectures that host nuclear reactors
The Cabinet eventually approved and outside of Japan. The result is a and fuel reprocessing plants, and from
the new energy plan on Sept. zigzagging course, which is creating the United States, Great Britain and
huge unpredictability about Japan’s France, the Japanese Government
19. But it had dropped the core future nuclear policy. This limbo decided to backtrack on its initial
reference to the 2040 deadline situation threatens to be even worse aspirations.
in a separate document. In other than either switching off all nuclear
reactors or keeping them online. The Cabinet eventually approved the
words, Japan has gone back to the new energy plan on 19 September. But
drawing board on whether to let On 14 September 2012, the Japanese it had dropped the core reference to the
Government presented to the public a 2040 deadline in a separate document.
nuclear power stay in its energy
new national energy strategy. This long- In other words, Japan has gone back
mix. awaited plan included the objective of to the drawing board on whether to let
eliminating nuclear power by 2040. nuclear power stay in its energy mix.
This came as no big surprise as recent
surveys are showing that a majority of This zigzagging on policy has left many
Japanese favor an exit from nuclear in and outside Japan scratching their
energy in the long run. Each Friday, tens heads. Both proponents and opponents
of thousands of people demonstrate of nuclear energy are equally frustrated
against nuclear power in front of the because neither group’s concerns
Prime Minister’s residence and this are being properly reflected by the
has been going on for several months. Government’s wavering course. The
Japan has not witnessed a larger public worst long-term damage, however, is
movement than this since the student probably being caused by the shaken
riots in the 1960s. belief that Japan has a predictable
future in energy.
Only one week after 14 September,
however, hopes for a nuclear-free

7

The announcement of the new energy The ambiguity of the Government policy
strategy on 14 September was filled with is best shown by the following remarks
contradictions and ambiguities from the of Japan’s trade minister, “Whether we
beginning. can become nuclear-free by the 2030s
is not something to be achieved only by
While aiming to close nuclear power policymakers. It also depends on the
plants by the end of the 2030s, the will of electricity users, technological
strategy allows work on plants already innovation, and the international
under construction to continue. It also environment for energy in the next one
calls for shutting down all reactors while or two decades.”
the reprocessing of spent fuel shall
continue. Likewise, the goal of tripling What remains for the time being is a
electricity output from renewable temporary victory by the formidable
energy sources by 2030 sounds hollow coalition of pro-nuclear interest groups.
because the Government does not offer But as long as unpredictability and
any plans for generating the funding immature communications continue
required to do so. to shape energy policy and public
perception at home and abroad, there
In addition to these factual will be no real winner.
contradictions, members of Prime
Minister Noda’s Cabinet have been Japan is in desperate need of a more
making inconsistent remarks over serious debate on its energy future.
the past weeks. On 13 September the The Government should take the lead
Government announced its plan to shut in creating a proper framework and
down the Monju fast-breeder reactor. timeline for this debate. It must bring to
Five days later it insisted that research the table representatives from all ends
Japan needs to develop its own
and development activities at Monju of society, including the growing group
approach in a political environment would continue. of outspoken nuclear opponents.
that lacks a history of long-term
On 17 September, Chief Cabinet Maybe, Japan should borrow a
public discussion of nuclear Secretary Fujimura even told a page from the book of the German
power as Germany had, and which news conference about plans to Government. Right after the Fukushima
faces significant differences with decommission three nuclear reactors disaster, the German Government
in Fukui Prefecture — only to retract the installed the so-called Ethics
Germany in terms of geography, remarks a few hours later on the same Commission, made up of famous
geopolitics and other conditions. day. and highly respected individuals

8

from academia, the church and other On the other hand, if nuclear energy
parts of society, including a business stays, it might lead to another major
representative, to discuss the nation’s accident in earthquake prone Japan and
future nuclear policy. It later provided thus — combined with above — result in
chancellor Merkel with the perfect the worst possible overall scenario.
blueprint legitimising Germany’s
nuclear exit. Facts and perceptions need to be taken
into the equation as well. There are
Japan needs to develop its own many ways to do so. One would be to
approach in a political environment start an annual international summit to
that lacks a history of long-term public discuss the challenges and solutions
discussion of nuclear power as Germany to the energy questions of today and
had, and which faces significant tomorrow. The obvious annual date
differences with Germany in terms would be 11 March, with a venue in
of geography, geopolitics and other Fukushima prefecture.
conditions.
The Japanese Government owes it to
But it is clear that Japan cannot afford to its people, and also to the international
keep zigzagging on energy policy much community, to take the lead in
longer. If it continues, the fears of both addressing nuclear and other energy
sides in the nuclear debate might come issues in a proactive and sustainable
true. way. And it must communicate its course
in a consistent and responsible way. If it
On the one hand, the continued did so, Japan might even be perceived
unpredictability in policy will likely make as leading in a responsible way – at
energy-intensive businesses leave home as well as abroad.
Japan. It will effectively dampen any
further exports of nuclear technology
while preventing the development of a
strong new industry around renewable
energies at the same time. It will even
worsen relations with the U.S. and
other Western allies that want Japan to
stick with nuclear power but most of all
request planning security.

9

UK’s energy future post - Fukushima?
The Tsunami off the coast of Japan that led to the Fukushima disaster has
had a powerful and long reaching effect on global energy policy and its
impact has circumnavigated the world – including reaching the UK
and affecting its energy policy choices.
Even prior to Fukushima,the UK was in submitting a bid, it did raise the
facing some very difficult decisions; controversial prospect of the Chinese
how could its ageing fleet of nuclear State being a significant shareholder in
Nick Bastin reactors be phased out and replaced the privatised UK nuclear industry.
nick.bastin@capitalmsl.com with enough new capacity to keep the
lights on? Should nuclear remain a This would have brought its own
core component of the UK electricity communications challenges, as it
supply? What mix of fuel gave the seems unlikely that the British general
best blend of security of supply, cost public would have readily accepted
efficiency and would help to lower the Chinese ownership in such a sensitive
UK’s carbon footprint; how could prices area – particularly when there is no
be kept affordable; and what was the prospect for reciprocity in China.
right balance between intermittent and
The Government was presented
base load solutions? The problem is that if trusted partners,
with an awkward conundrum, as like E.On, RWE and Areva pull out,
the subsequent bids from a variety Perhaps, unsurprisingly, the role of there is not much choice of other
nuclear power has been questioned as suppliers who have the technical or
of consortiums to take over the
never before, with an added irony being financial ability, or willingness, to bid,
project have been less palatable that this came at a time that the UK particularly if you exclude Chinese or
and had potentially included two seemed to have unblocked a log jam in Russian bidders for political reasons.
its development of new nuclear power In this case, Hitachi have ridden to the
Chinese State-owned bidders
stations and was well advanced in the rescue by agreeing to buy Horizon
- China Guangdong Nuclear planning for the construction of a fleet from E.On and RWE, but there is still
Power Group and Nuclear Power of up to eight new plants. a complex negotiation to be had over
pricing and the financial return, with
Technology Corp.
However, unlike in other countries, Hitachi seemingly having to trust the
like Germany and Japan, the desire to UK Government to do the right thing.
withdraw from nuclear power has not It seems unlikely that more nuclear
come from Government wilting under power stations can realistically be built
popular protest, but from private sector without a greater level of Government
reluctance to commit to the projects involvement, due to the extremely long
under the proposed terms. The swift term liabilities and costs, which are
action taken by Angela Merkel’s increasingly hard for private companies
Government to shut down nuclear to stomach.
power in Germany, was followed rapidly
by E.On and RWE’s withdrawal from But the ripples of Fukushima are
bidding for the Horizon consortium that more subtle than just whether the
was hoping to build two new plants at UK should build more nuclear power
Wylfa and Oldbury on Severn. stations. The question is also, if not
nuclear, then what? With a reluctance
The Government was presented to be more dependent on Russian
with an awkward conundrum, as the gas and with declining production in
subsequent bids from a variety of the UK North Sea, the options for a
consortiums to take over the project robust alternative are limited. Despite
have been less palatable and had theoretical support for renewables like
potentially included two Chinese State- wind, there is increasing push back
owned bidders - China Guangdong from communities on the impact these
Nuclear Power Group and Nuclear have. Recent proposals for a huge wind
Power Technology Corp. Although farm along the banks of Loch Ness
neither of these ultimately participated in Scotland have galvanised intense

10

opposition and it is clear that the But there is no easy way out,
difficult choices people need to make consumers need to be informed
about their power sources are not going about the reality that we face; with
to go away. most renewables currently unable to
meet baseload power requirements,
All of these challenges will require and requiring huge Government
effective communications to help subsidies to get off the ground, all of
people make the right decisions – with the alternatives remain unpalatable
consumers struggling under ever on one level or another. It is inevitable
increasing energy bills, and a growing that ultimately we will need a mix of
number enduring fuel poverty, the energy sources to meet our needs, and
correlation between those choices and nuclear will need to be part of that mix.
politics will become ever narrower. The I am sure nuclear power operators, and
Government is trapped between the the British public for that matter, would
rock of deficit reduction and the need value more open and transparent
for long term planning / financing of communications from the Government
these projects, if you throw in carbon on how these plans will affect them,
reduction targets and the hornet’s nest and they will need to fully understand
of opposition from special interest the costs and ramifications that those
groups, then you can see why decision choices will have, both in the present
making is often glacial. but also in the future, 20 years hence.

11

Turbines in troubled waters
What will the impact be of Sweden’s plans to revise
the environmental permits of the country’s 2,000 hydro plants

Per Ola Bosson
per.ola.bosson@jklgroup.com

“I can’t understand why Sweden is A power plant required to release
doing this! Hydropower is necessary, a certain minimum flow alongside
as we all know. Not only because it its turbine has an impact on up and
is renewable - it is also needed to downstream power plants. The ability
regulate fluctuations in wind power to use hydropower as energy storage is
production.” restricted when flow cannot be freely
regulated.
These words were spoken by a
German electrical engineer, who was Rewriting permits for all power
astonished by Sweden’s plans to cut plants under today’s environmental
hydropower production. Or more legislation is expected to reduce
The few cases in which new
precisely, Sweden’s plans to revise production by 5 TWh, according to
environmental legislation has the environmental permits of the industry body Swedenergy. Regulating
been applied to hydropower have country’s 2,000 hydroelectric plants. capacity – the ability to store energy
Most hydro plants operate under in regulated rivers – will also be
always entailed a decrease in
permits that are 50-100 years old and reduced. Others estimate that the
production. were granted under old legislation. A production decrease may be as much
revision of the permits in accordance as 10 TWh. Today, 65 TWh is produced
with new legislation would compel by hydropower. A crucial question will
the hydro plants to meet more be how environmental regulations
stringent requirements and comply should be applied to the largest hydro
with new environmental law principles, plants. Most hydroelectric production
including the Duty of Care, Best is generated by the 200 largest plants;
Available Technology and Polluter Pays this is also where the regulating
Principles. capacity lies.

The few cases in which new The parliamentary majority that has
environmental legislation has been pushed the plans does not care to
applied to hydropower have always provide a forecast as to the size of
entailed a decrease in production. the production decrease – it wants
This is due to the requirement that the issue to be analysed by the
a greater share of flowing water be Government investigator who was
released alongside the turbine into commissioned last June to draw up a
new or existing fish streams, which is legislative proposal. The proposal will
expected to improve the chance of be finalised by the summer of 2013.
survival for migrating fish and mussels. Meanwhile, Sweden is preparing a plan
Each additional cubic metre of water for making the entire energy supply
released past the turbine means lost climate neutral by 2050. With less
electricity production.

12

hydropower, Sweden will need more production for existing hydro plants. It
wind power. This in turn increases is inconceivable that a parliamentary
the demand for regulating power – majority will have a sudden attack of
i.e., hydropower. The upshot is that remorse and admit that it “forgot about
Europe can hardly count on Swedish climate change.”
hydropower in any significant way to
regulate expanded wind power and A further expansion of hydropower in
solar energy, as Sweden will need the Sweden is also inconceivable, even
hydropower for its own regulation of in the long term. There are unused
supply and demand. A salient point watercourses, but they are clearly
is that Sweden has no natural gas protected by law. For safety’s sake, the
network and thus lacks the option of remaining Swedish rivers (including
using electric power generated by four large, entirely undeveloped
natural gas as a regulating power. Norrland rivers) are protected by both
Swedish law and the EU’s Natura
The political game behind hydropower 2000, and the major rivers have also
is complicated, as it always is with been classified as National Rivers.
Swedish energy policy. Due to high Watercourses are thus triply protected
per capita electricity consumption, from expansion. Angry opinions
energy is an important issue. In the are immediately heard at the mere
battle between various stakeholders, mention of hydropower expansion.
A further expansion of hydropower certain types of energy (e.g., natural Neither is it possible to increase
gas) have been rejected on less electricity production in existing
in Sweden is also inconceivable,
than objective grounds. It is hardly a hydroelectric plants, since production
even in the long term. There are coincidence that the most nuclear- there will be reduced by the release of
unused watercourses, but they are friendly party – the Liberal Party – is more water into fish streams alongside
also critical of hydropower. But even the turbines.
clearly protected by law.
the environmental movement criticises
hydro, which it views as large-scale The German electrical engineer cited
and a threat to biological diversity (as if above points out that Europe will
global warming doesn’t also threaten need Swedish hydropower to regulate
biodiversity). Most people recognise all the future wind power and solar
hydropower’s great importance to energy. But references to Germany’s or
Sweden’s economic welfare, but Europe’s need for Swedish hydropower
no party or group of voters actually fail to resonate with Swedish public
likes hydropower. For people living opinion – in fact, such references
near the plants, it’s hard to like have the opposite effect. Swedes do
hydro. Hydroelectric plants today do not want fish migration blocked by
not employ local staff but control hydropower plants just so electricity
operations remotely from national can be exported. Neither do they
operations rooms. Hydropower’s think more hydropower is needed in
advantages become evident far from Sweden – hydropower already provides
the people who live near the plants, nearly 50 per cent of the electricity
and this distance would be even greater consumed in Sweden. So it’s more
if electric power were exported. enjoyable to fish for trout in Swedish
Taken together, this all means that rivers, and canoeists won’t have to haul
the decision making process on their canoes past hydropower plants.
hydroelectric plant environmental And after all, electricity on the Nordic
permits that is now underway will market is cheaper this year than it’s
most likely carry severe consequences been in a very long time.
and entail a significant decrease in

13

Germany’s Energy Shift:
Does less haste mean more speed?
Germany’s energy shift is not only lagging severely behind schedule,
it is also about to slow down even further. Ultimately, this could be a virtue
for German energy policy.

Florian Wastl
florian.wastl@mslgroup.com

In the early summer of last year, only result of these problems, only two
three months after the Fukushima small offshore wind parks have so far
nuclear disaster, Angela Merkel’s been built, with a joint capacity of a
Government dramatically overturned meagre 0.5 Gigawatts. According to the
its original decision to slow Germany’s Government’s plans, however, offshore
exit from nuclear power, bringing the wind power will have to generate a
date for the final decommissioning of whopping ten Gigawatts by 2020.
all German nuclear reactors forward
to 2022. Alongside the faster nuclear What’s more, the pace of the Energy
phase-out, the Government embarked Shift is set to slow down even further
on a hugely ambitious plan to replace in the months ahead. This is for two
Germany’s nuclear capacity with power reasons: First, the strongest proponent
from renewable energy sources. within the Government of a speedy
transition to renewables, environment
Since then, progress in Germany’s so- minister Norbert Röttgen (CDU),
called “Energiewende” (“Energy Shift”) lost his ministerial post in May 2012,
has been painstakingly slow, with following a poor showing as CDU front-
many projects lagging severely behind runner in a key regional election. The
schedule. This is best exemplified new man in charge of the environment
by the status quo of one of the key brief, Peter Altmaier (also CDU), is
pillars of the Energy Shift, i.e. the determined to focus less on speed
building of offshore wind parks in than on feasibility. This is likely to
the North Sea. More than a year into include a temporary strengthening of
the Energiewende, decision-makers fossil energy production. Secondly,
have still not created the regulatory Germany is facing a general election in
environment to give investors the September 2013. With energy issues
financial security they require (although likely to dominate the election, political
a law to do this is about to be passed parties are already beginning to stake
at the time of writing). Meanwhile, out their positions. As the election
the state-owned Dutch grid operator draws nearer, the policy window will
TenneT, tasked with connecting the close in the spring and is unlikely to
proposed offshore wind parks to reopen until early 2014.
mainland grids, is in severe financial
difficulty. Separate deals between However, it is not all gloom: While
TenneT and investors to secure Peter Altmaier may be putting his
funding for individual projects are now foot on the brake with regard to
beginning to get underway but no renewables, he has also begun to
overall solution to TenneT’s financial frame the debate towards a more
troubles appears to be in sight. As a pragmatic, results-oriented approach

14

Only the Green Party are likely to
step out of line: They will insist
that costs are not being pushed up
by the effort to extend renewable
energy production but by a rebate
for industry which should be
scrapped.

to the Energy Shift. As the Government up by the effort to extend renewable
has just had to raise its green energy energy production but by a rebate for
levy to cover the increasing cost of industry which should be scrapped.
the Energy Shift, Altmaier’s key focus With a Grand Coalition between
will be on keeping overall costs down Christian Democrats and Social
– or, rather, of spreading them out Democrats the most likely outcome
over a greater period of time. While of the election, Altmaier’s approach is
Altmaier’s CDU (and, to some extent, set to prevail. It is therefore likely that
also the Social Democrats) will be Germany will experience a significant
arguing in their election campaigns slowing-down in the shift to renewable
that energy must remain affordable to energy production, but that targets,
consumers, the CDU’s coalition partner timings and the cost of the Energy Shift
FDP will emphasise the importance will become more realistic. Given the
of cheap energy for the continued inevitable extension of fossil energy
competitiveness of Germany’s export- production, however, one target will
driven economy. Only the Green Party hang in the balance more than ever
are likely to step out of line: They will before: Germany’s commitment to cut
insist that costs are not being pushed CO2 emissions.

15

Post-Fukushima issues
for France’s energy transition
We are more and more aware that we are living in a resource
limited world. While 80% of our energy currently comes from
fossil fuels, this cannot be sustained in the future.
Indeed, in a world where the need for
energy is constantly growing, fossil
energy resources are slowly being
Pierre-Samuel Guedj depleted and the scrutiny of their
pierre-samuel.guedj@consultants. environmental impact dramatically
publicis.fr
increasing, an energy transition is
necessary.

In light of these issues, the accident
at Fukushima could have been an
accelerating factor for the transition.
However, in France nuclear energy is
too important and too competitive
to be replaced. Hence, its role has
not really been questioned following
the Fukushima event. Nevertheless,
for political reasons, the French
Government has had to get involved
Companies are both the agents of
in the development of renewable
These are some of the questions
the transition and key to it. If we energies. This is what lies behind
for which those companies that are
want it to be successful, it must the recent announcement, during
affected seek answers.
the Environmental Conference, that
take into account their worries and
a national debate will be organised
expectations. around the energy transition and the Companies required to
associated issues and that this will lead enter the debate
to a new planning law before summer
2013. Seemingly, the idea behind this Companies are both the agents of
declaration is to hide nuclear energy the transition and key to it. If we want
under a carbon-free layer, forbidding it to be successful, its must take into
for example shale gas, to make it more account their worries and expectations.
acceptable. After having being left out in the latest
Environmental Conference, companies
Whatever will be decided later this have to be reintegrated into the
year, the lives of companies will debate. Hence, the governance of the
undoubtedly be affected. For some energy transition debate to date has
sectors, like the public construction to be questioned. Companies want a
sector, or the renewable energy sector, balanced and coherent discussion, in
this transition will be an opportunity to particular in the debate on shale gas
expand their activities, thanks to new and this will need to be re-examined
public projects and new invitations to and involve all stakeholders.
tender – in the photovoltaic sector for
instance. For some others, such as in A need for clearer
the hydrocarbon sector, it will require
major changes to their activities. information about funding

All these changes lead to numerous Once the direction has been settled,
questions for those companies linked companies expect clearer information
to the energy transition. How will the on whom will pay for the transition and
debate be organised and led? Who how it will be organised. Indeed, the
and how will it be financed? What Government has already announced
regulatory framework will be used? strong measures, in particular in the
automobile and public construction

16

MSLGROUP EMEA Newsletter on Energy November 2012

MSLGROUP EMEA Newsletter on Energy November 2012

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Similaire à MSLGROUP EMEA Newsletter on Energy November 2012

Similaire à MSLGROUP EMEA Newsletter on Energy November 2012 (20)

Plus de MSL

Plus de MSL (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

MSLGROUP EMEA Newsletter on Energy November 2012