TIA experts, including featured guest, former FCC Commissioner Harold Furchtgott-Roth, analyze FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski's proposal to reclassify broadband as a Title II service under Telecommunications Act. Watch webinar: http://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/21172

1. Telecommunications
Industry Association (TIA)
Webinar
Broadband Stimulus Kickstarts
ICT Industry Growth
Analysis Based on TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast
Presented by Economist Arthur Gruen and TIA Vice President for
Government Affairs Danielle Coffey
March 19, 2010

2. 3-5 Year Forecast and
Global in Scope
• Report produced by TIA annually since 1986
• Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates
• Online version through TelecomTV
• Segments information by:
– Geography (U.S., international, global)
– Sectors & services:
• Landline
• Wireless
• Enterprise
• Network equipment
• Broadband
• VoIP
• Data transport
• Internet access
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3. Global Market Forecast
• Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing
• Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal driver
3

4. Broadband Drivers
• Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for
next four years
• Growing demand for high-volume data applications
driving all segments
• Demand pushes rollout of 4G networks
• Government broadband stimulus awards to fuel network
infrastructure growth to meet demands
• Rural broadband to benefit from stimulus
• Adoption of National Broadband Plan on the horizon
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5. Broadband Growth
In the residential market, household penetration of
broadband will increase from 64.2% in 2009 to 90.7%
in 2013.
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6. Broadband Subscription
Growth
Fixed wireless is
emerging as a last-
mile solution for
rural areas. In
percentage terms,
fixed wireless will
be surpassed only
by FTTH as the
fastest-growing
broadband
technology during
the next four years.
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7. Infrastructure Spending
Cumulative spending on infrastructure equipment will
total $130.8B through 2010-13.
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8. Fiber Deployment
A total of 52.5 million miles is expected to be
deployed during 2010–13, primarily in the backbone
infrastructure.
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9. Access Equipment Spending
DOCSIS 3.0 modems installation will drive spending
on cable access equipment by 20.4% over the next
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two years.

10. Backbone Infrastructure
Spending
Stimulus funding will extend backbone infrastructure
so more homes will be in range of DSL, cable modem
and fixed wireless broadband service.
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11. Overall U.S. Landline Spending
By 2011, we expect the economy to be on a recovery
path, which will affect most components of the market
positively.
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12. Voice Landlines
Voice landlines will total an estimated 176.7M in
2013, a 0.3% compound annual increase from 2009.
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13. Decline in Voice Spending
Overall landline voice spending will fall $160.1B in
2013 from $168.1B in 2009.
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14. Bundling Up
By 2013, only 7 million households in the United
States will have non-bundled telephone service.
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15. Cable Telephone Subscribers
By 2013, we project that VoIP will account for 93% of
cable’s telephone subscribers.
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16. Residential VoIP Subscribers
The overall residential VoIP market will rise from 27.5
million subscribers in 2009 to 40.0 million in
2013, growing at a 9.8% compound annual rate.
16

17. VoIP Transition Continues
Projections show that by 2013 there will be more than
54% as many VoIP subscribers as circuit-switched
subscribers.
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18. VoIP: Residential and Business
By 2013, business VoIP will account for 9.7% of all
business lines, while residential VoIP will grow to a
35.1% share.
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19. U.S. IPTV Spending
IPTV spending will more than triple to $10
billion by 2013.
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20. National Broadband Plan
• TIA provided a roadmap with 7 main issues to be
addressed, including:
– Broadband access and adoption
– Spectrum allocation and efficiency
– Access to all Americans, those in rural areas and with disabilities
– Public Safety
– Trade
– R&D
– Energy & Environment
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21. National Broadband Plan
• Focus: Investment and Innovation; Inclusion; National
Purposes
• Recommendations:
– Transition of Universal Service Fund to Broadband
– Freeing 500 Mhz of Much-Needed Spectrum
– Interoperable Public Safety Network
– Digital Literacy Corps
– Broadband Accessibility Working Group and Accessibility and
Innovation Forum
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22. FCC’s Broadband Principles
TIA APPROVES Every American should have a meaningful opportunity to benefit
from the broadband communications era.
TIA APPROVES Continuous private sector investment in wired and wireless
networks and technologies, and competition among providers, are critical to ensure
vitality and innovation in the broadband ecosystem.
TIA APPROVES Strategic and prudent policies toward public resources like
spectrum will benefit all Americans, by meeting current and future needs and by
promoting continued innovation, investment, and competition.
TIA APPROVES The nearly $9 billion Universal Service Fund (USF) and the
intercarrier compensation (ICC) system should be comprehensively reformed.
TIA APPROVES Our Nation should harness the tools of modern communications
technology to protect all Americans, including by enabling the development of a
nation-wide, wireless, interoperable broadband network for the Nation’s first
responders.
TIA APPROVES Ubiquitous and affordable broadband can unlock vast new
opportunities for Americans, in communities large and small.
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23. More on Other Sectors Soon
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24. Research Methodology
1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources
2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory
and competitive factors
3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry
revenues
4. Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and
assign relative significance weight
5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to
compute range of prospective results
6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and
institutional knowledge
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25. How To Order
TIA’s 2010 ICT Market
Review & Forecast
Mobile and Wireless
Communications
Chapter Is Available
Today
http://www.tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm
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26. TIA: A World-Recognized Authority
Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information
and communications technology (ICT) industry
Works through Policy, Standards, Environment,
Intelligence and Networking
3,000 TIA standards developed, including:
New Committee: Smart Communications Devices
Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling
Cell towers and CDMA technology
CALEA and P25
Ethernet
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27. TIA Board of Directors
Recognized leadership
Advances association mission
ACS | ADC | ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp |
Avaya | Bechtel Communications, Inc. | Cisco Systems | Corning
Incorporated | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels &
McCoy | ILS Technology | Intel Corp. | Intersect, Inc.| LGE | Microsoft |
Motorola | Nokia Siemens Networks | Nortel | Openwave, Inc. |
Panasonic Computer Solutions Co. | Powerwave Technologies|
Qualcomm | Research In Motion | Sumitomo Electric Lightwave
Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics | Ulticom, Inc. | Verari Systems
Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia
Technologies
27

28. TIA’s Policy Agenda
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29. Thank You!
Contact TIA at
msnyder@tiaonline.org
tiaonline.org
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