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Credit symfonie
- 1. Credit
High Yield
22 May 2013
London: 16 High Holborn, London WC21V 6BX Prague: Evropska 136, 16000 Praha 6
T: +44 20 3287 2690 F: +44 20 8616 7499 T: +420 724 260 952 F: +420 222 951 429
e-mail: msonenshine@symfoniecapital.com
This publication has been prepared by Symfonie Capital (Symfonie) for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation for the
purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not
untrue or misleading, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. This document is confidential and proprietary to
Symfonie. Transmission or publication of this document without the express prior consent of Symfonie is strictly prohibited. Symfonie
Capital reserves all legal rights in connection with the publication of this document. © Symfonie Capital 2013.
- 2. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 2
Ideal Investor Profile
• Investors seeking relatively stable returns over time but who may not have
sufficient credit expertise
• Investors who understand the high yield market are looking for more diversification
along with investment management expertise.
• High Net Worth Investors and Family Offices seeking a relatively high yield for
savings and who are able to accept moderate level of risk.
• The product is ideal for investors who are willing to match the term of their
investment to the underlying maturity of the portfolio, which is expected to remain
about 3-5 years.
- 3. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 3
Fixed Income Services
• Portfolio advisory – we provide security selection and research.
• Tailored portfolio management – we design and manage the portfolio according to
client specifications.
• Symfonie Credit Opportunity Fund, LP – a limited partnership recently
established. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of bonds and credit instruments.
• Symfonie Lending Fund, LP – a limited partnership focused on peer to peer loans.
Investors can select a class of loans maturing in 2016 or 2018 and thus have a a
natural, pre-determined termination point for their investment. Principal and interest
can be paid quarterly.
- 4. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 4
Symfonie EM Credit – Consistent Outperformance
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
Jan-05
M
ar-05M
ay-05
Jul-05
Sep-05
N
ov-05
Jan-06
M
ar-06M
ay-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
N
ov-06
Jan-07
M
ar-07M
ay-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
N
ov-07
Jan-08
M
ar-08M
ay-08
Jul-08
Base=1
Hedged WE XOVER
Hedged EEI
Hedged EMCI
USDLIBOR 1M
Symfonie
HEDGED WE HY
Source: Symfonie. Chart above reflects the performance of the credit strategy implemented within the MT Thaler New Europe Fund during the time Symfonie
principal Michael Sonenshine was responsible for the Fund’s investments in credit instruments.
- 5. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 5
Symfonie Global High Yield – Successful Track Record
Symfonie Global HY
90
105
120
135
150
165
180
195
210
225
240
31-O
ct-0831-Dec-08
28-Feb-0930-Apr-0930-Jun-0931-Aug-0931-O
ct-0931-Dec-09
28-Feb-1030-Apr-1030-Jun-1031-Aug-1031-O
ct-1031-Dec-10
28-Feb-1130-Apr-1130-Jun-1131-Aug-1131-O
ct-1131-Dec-11
29-Feb-1230-Apr-1230-Jun-1231-Aug-1231-O
ct-1231-Dec-12
IndexNov1=100
ML WE HY SYMFONIE EU XOVER EMCI
Source: Symfonie. Chart above reflects the performance of the Ceska Sporitelna High Yield Fund during the time Symfonie principal Miichael Sonenshine was
responsible as investment advisor to the Fund.
- 6. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 6
Investment Process – Research Driven
Bond Selection
Asset class selection
Risk/return analysis
Credit fundamental modeling
MONITORING
On-going review of bond
performance and credit
fundamentals.
INVESTMENT EXECUTION
CIO approves bond purchase
Trade Executed
SIZING AND RISK
Diversification of among bonds
Market Assessment
Proprietary screening filters
Macro-economic research
Relative value comparisons
- 7. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 7
Investment Methodology - Bonds
• Credit Worthiness – with in-depth research we
select issuers based on their ability and
willingness to pay interest and principal.
• High yield – we focus on bonds with relatively
high yields.
• Capital gain potential - we look for bonds
whose credit quality is likely to improve over
time.
• Relative Value – we look for bonds that
represent good relative value we feel the market
has not fully priced in.
• Special Situations – we look for bonds priced at
deep discounts to par that offer substantial
prospect of capital gain.
• Credit Deterioration – where we believe credit
quality is likely to deteriorate we sell.
• Low return potential – where we believe a
bond no longer offers adequate return we sell.
• Capital loss potential - when we decide there
are significant downside risks we sell.
• Relative Value – when we decide a bond
represents poor value relative to other
opportunities we sell.
BUYS SELLS
- 8. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 8
Key Risks
• Deterioration of Credit Quality – During recessions default rates are likely to
increase. We try to manage this risk by diversifying the portfolio among many
countries, many credits varying the range of credit profiles in the portfolio and by
moving to relatively safe, liquid fixed income assets.
• Interest Rate Risk – When base interest rates go up, bond prices fall. We
manage this risk by investing in relatively short duration bonds and by investing in
bonds whose improvements in credit quality are likely to be the dominant driver of
price changes. High Yield bonds have an equity-like component of risk. Higher
interest rates and higher inflation, providing they correspond with improving
economies, are likely to result in improved earnings and improvements in credit
quality. As market conditions improve the likelihood of trade sales and IPOs
increases and this also has a positive impact on high yield bond pricing.
- 9. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 9
Symfonie Investment Team
Michael Sonenshine, CFA – Investment Principal
Mr. Sonenshine More than 20 years of experience in banking and investment management. He specialises in credit
investments. His investment process is research driven with an emphasis on fundamental analysis. He founded Symfonie
Capital in 2012.
2003-2012, MT Thaler, Prague/London: CEO/Partner, Head of Research. Investment funds focused on central and eastern
Europe and pan-European credit markets
2000-2003 CSFB, London: European High Yield Debt Research
1998-2000 ING Bank, London: European High Yield Debt Research
1995-1998 ING Investment Management, Prague: CEO, Czech Republic
1994-1995 ING Bank, London: Analyst
1993-1994 Driehaus Capital, Prague: Analyst
1992-1993 Evrobank, Prague: Advisor
MBA William Simon School, University of Rochester
B.A., Tufts University
- 10. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 10
Symfonie Investment Team
Jan Kofol, Workout Specialist
Mr. Kofol has more than 30 years of experience incorporate restructuring, workouts, risk management and
corporate lending at major consulting firms, and at major investment and commercial banks.
Alvarez & Marshal Central Europe
Senior Director, Global operational and advisory firm specializing in assisting organizations to solve problems and
unlock value for the stake holders
BBK, Ltd.
Principal, leading business advisory firm assisting companies and/or their creditors in a wide range of areas, from
improving enterprise value to managing distressed situations
CSFB
Director, Global head of Impaired Assets. Managed the global portfolio of problem loans of CSFB
Deputy Head of Risk Management North America.
Vice Chairman Credit Committee and Vice Chairman of the Leverage Finance Credit Committee.
Head of Credit Suisse Corporate Lending, North America. Responsible for Corporate Banking team in the
Northeast United States.
Corporate Lending Officer, Credit Suisse North America
Manufacturers Hanover Trust
International Lending Officer
MBA, New York University, BA, Presbyterian College.
- 11. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 11
Symfonie Investment Team
Zvezda Dermendzieva, Ph.D. – Quantitative Credit Research
Ms. Dermendzieva is an award winning economist specialising in statistical data models. Using data files supplied by
the P2P platforms Ms. Dermendziveva develops analytical models and filtering tools aimed at reducing the number of
default loans in the portfolio. Ms. Dermendzieva’s professional experience includes econometric analysis of insurance
data for one of Europe’s leading insurance companies, insurance risk modeling and pricing, economic research for the
German Ministry of Finance and analysing longitudinal data at then National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in
Tokyo, Japan.
Professional Experience
•Generali Insurance Group, Prague, Czech Republic – econometric data analysis, risk and price models
•Osteuropa Institut, Regensburg, Germany – economic and finance research for the German Ministry of Finance
•National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan – visiting professor, econometric analysis and financial modeling
Academic Experience
•Ph.D., Economics, CERGE-EI, Prague, Czech Republic
•M .A., Economics, University of the State of New York, CERGE-EI, Prague, Czech Republic
•B.A., Economics, American University, Sofia, Bulgaria, Graduated Magma Cum Laude
Awards & Publications
•Best CEE Ph.D. Thesis - UniCredit & Universities Foundation
•Boston Consulting Group Strategy Cup – finalist
•Citigroup Endowment – merit scholarship
•CERGE-EI – merit scholarship
•Philip Morris – merit scholarship
•“Emigration from the South Caucusus – Who Goes Abroad and What are the Economic Implications “(Post-Communist
Economics, 23(3))
•“How Does Overconfidence Affect Individual Decision Making?” (Proceedings of the International Conference Experiments in
Economic Sciences, Kyoto, Japan)
- 12. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 12
Symfonie Advisory Board
The Symfonie Advisory Board is a group of highly experienced financial professionals. Symfonie has regular
meetings with the Advisory Board to discuss the Fund’s investments, strategy, research on P2P providers. Advisory
Board members are independent of Symfonie and do not have legal or regulatory authority or status within Symfonie.
Willem Naves
Holland
• More than 25 years of experience in investment and corporate banking
• Twenty years experience in credit trading management positions in the ING Group - Amsterdam, London, Sao Paolo
• Global co-Head of Fixed Income trading at ING
• Head of EMEA Equity and Fixed Income sales and trading product
• Banking advisory projects focusing on credit and risk management in Macedonia, Poland, El Salvador and Indonesia
• Erasmus University degree in Law
Pavel Kohout
Czech Republic
• Fifteen years experience in economic analysis and investment management
• Director of Strategy at Partners Advisors, a leading Czech financial advisory firm
• Author of several books on economics
• Member of Czech National Economics Advisory Board
• Member, Expert Panel of Advisors to Czech Ministry of Finance
- 13. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 13
Symfonie Advisory Board
The Symfonie Advisory Board is a group of highly experienced financial professionals. Symfonie has regular
meetings with the Advisory Board to discuss the Fund’s investments, strategy, research on P2P providers. Advisory
Board members are independent of Symfonie and do not have legal or regulatory authority or status within Symfonie.
Maarten van den Belt
UK
• More than twenty five years of experience in investment and corporate banking
• Credit risk management and loan officer positions at NMB Bank, the Netherlands
• Corporate high yield bond management during the formative years of the European high yield market
• Senior management positions in treasury and lending at ING Bank, Raiffeisen Bank and West LB
• Developed and managed capital markets trading and consumer banking businesses in Tokyo, Moscow and London
• Managing partner responsible for alternative asset manger with $400 mn AUM focused on investments in Russia
• Non-Executive Directorships with TMM, a leading Ukrainian real estate developer and Pristav, one of Russia’s largest c c
consumer debt collection agencies
• University of Utrecht, Social and Business law
Charles Klein
China
• Twenty years experience in corporate finance and treasury management
• Management positions in General Motors with responsibility for currency portfolios, asset acquisition and disposition and
financial reporting systems
• Resident in China, fluent in German and Russian
• MBA, Wharton School of Management
- 14. A Few Things You Should Know
About High Yield Bonds (but were
afraid to ask)
London: 16 High Holborn, London, WC1V 6BX Prague: Klimentska 1216 / 46, 110 00 Praha 1
T: +44 20 8616 7311 F: +44 20 8616 7499 T: +420 222 191 008 F: +44 20 222 191 200
This publication has been prepared by Symfonie Capital (Symfonie) for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation for the
purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not
untrue or misleading, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. The views and opinions expressed in this
document are those of its author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of Symfonie. No reliance should be placed on this document for
the purposes of making an investment decision. Neither Symfonie, its officers, directors, nor the author(s) of this document accept
liability for any loss arising from any investor arising from any decision to rely on this document. Symfonie, its affiliates and any of its or
their officers may have financial interest in any transactions, securities or commodities referred to herein. Symfonie, or its affiliates, may
perform services, for, or solicit business from, any company referred to herein. This document is confidential and proprietary to
Symfonie. Transmission or publication of this document without the express prior consent of Symfonie is strictly prohibited. Symfonie
Capital reserves all legal rights in connection with the publication of this document. © Symfonie Capital 2012.
- 15. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 15
High Yield Beats Equity in the Long Term
• Between 1995 and
2012 European High
Yield returned 416%
while European
Equities returned
206%.
• Between 1986 and
2012 US High Yield
returned 1120%
while US Equities
returned 716%.
Source: Bloomberg, CSFB, S&P 500, DowJones Stoxx 50
European High Yield vs. Equities
0
100
200
300
400
500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1995 - 2009
Index1995=100
High Yield Bonds Equities
US High Yield vs. Equities
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1986 - 2009
Index1986=100
High Yield Bonds Equities
- 16. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 16
High Yield Offers Rewards
Source: Credit Suisse, Symfonie Capital, Data through 31 December 2009
High Yield and EM offer
significant yield premium to
BBB
Many BB and BBB EM
corporates have much
better credit metrics than
high yield counterparts, but
offer same or better yields
Good credit research
brings rewards over
time.
Bond Spreads - Higher Rated
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2004-2012
Spreadvs.Benchmark
(bp)
WE BBB BBB EM Corporates Split BBB HY
Bond Spreads - Lower Rated
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2004-2012
Spreadvs.Benchmark
(bp)
WE BB WE B EM BB EM B
- 17. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 17
High Yield is Less Volatile Than Equities
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Symfonie Capital,, S&P 500
•Since 1986 the US Equity Market
recorded monthly declines of more
than 5% 33 times versus just 6 in the
case of the US High Yield Market.
•Since 1995 the European Equity
Market recorded monthly declines of
more than 5% 32 times versus just 9
in the case of the European High Yield
Market.
European High Yield Bonds - Monthly Returns
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1995 - 2010
European Equities - Monthly Returns
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1995 - 2010
- 18. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 18
High Yield Bonds Have Built-In Recovery Potential
Bonds are issued at face value (par). In down markets, they may trade
below par. As their maturity nears bonds trend back toward par and as
markets recover bonds trend back toward par. High Yield bonds may
experience deeper declines, but High Yield Bonds compensate with higher
long term returns. Bonds reward patient investors.
Source: Credit Suisse, Symfonie Capital
Bond Prices as % of Par
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2000 - 2012
A Rated Bonds High Yield Bonds
- 19. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 19
In Recessions Stock Markets Get Hit Harder than Bond
Markets
• From August 2000 to February
2003 the US Equity Market
declined by 44.5% and the
European Equity Market
declined by 58.3%. In contrast,
the US High Yield Market
generated a 6.9% total return
while the European High Yield
Market was down 13%.
• Since 2008 High Yield has
consistently provided higher
annual returns than equities.
• High Yield Bonds have a built
in-advantage because they
earn interest. Over the medium
term interest payments help
provide a more stable return. In
contrast, equity markets are
prone to sharp and long lasting
down cycles.Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Symfonie Capital, S&P 500. DowJones Stoxx 50
Rolling 12 Month Returns - High Yield vs. Equities
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Return
High Yield Equities
Rolling 12 Month Returns - Euro
High Yield vs. Equities
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Return
High Yield Equities
- 20. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 20
In Recessions Stock Markets Get Hit Harder than Bond
Markets
• Despite the global economic
downturn since 2008 and the
European sovereign debt crisis
High Yield bonds have provided
strong returns.
• Equities have yet to recover
from the peak prior to the
collapse of Lehman. High Yield
bonds, in contrast, not only
recovered, but have also
continued to generate superior
returns.
• High Yield bonds have two
advantages over equities. First,
performing High Yield bonds
pay interest in good times and
bad times. Second, they have
a stated value with a stated
maturity date.Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Symfonie Capital, S&P 500. DowJones Stoxx 50
European High Yield vs. Equities
0
100
200
300
400
500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1995 - 2012
Index1995=100
High Yield Bonds Equities
US High Yield vs. Equities
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1986 - 2012
Index1986=100
High Yield Bonds Equities
- 21. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 21
Rise in default rates usually coincides with recession
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Periods of Recession
Historical and Estimated Default Rates in U.S. High Yield Market
2008 and 2009 are MT Thaler Estimates
Sources: E. Altman (2008), National Bureau of Economic Research, MT Thaler
- 22. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 22
Recovery Rates Increase as Default Probabilities
Decline and vice versa.
2007
1988
1984
1994
1998
1997
1985
1993
1986
2004
2005
1989
1996
1995
1999
1987
2000
2001
1990
1983
1992
2002
1991
2003
1982
2006
y = -2.3137x + 0.5029
R
2
= 0.5361
y = -0.1069Ln(x) + 0.0297
R
2
= 0.6287
y = 30.255x
2
- 6.0594x + 0.5671
R
2
= 0.6151
y = 0.1457x
-0.2801
R
2
= 0.6531
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
RecoveryRate
Recovery Rate/Default Rate Association
Dollar Weighted Average Recovery Rates to Dollar Weighted Average Default Rates
(1982-2007)
- 23. Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. ©2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 23
Disclaimer
• This document has been prepared by Symfonie Capital Investment Management LLC (“Symfonie Capital”) for persons reasonably
believed by Symfonie Capital to be persons of the categories to whom Symfonie Capital are permitted to communicate financial
promotions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe or
purchase any investment. Symfonie Capital believes that the information it provides is accurate as at the date of publication, but no
warranty of its accuracy or completeness is given and no liability in respect of errors or omissions is accepted by Symfonie Capital or
any partner or employee of Symfonie Capital. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
• This presentation is for illustration and discussion purposes only and is not intended to be, neither should it be construed or used as,
financial, legal, tax or investment advice nor an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any of the funds
managed by Symfonie Capital (the “Funds”). None of the Funds have shares registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as
amended. None of the Funds will be registered under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Any offer or solicitation
of an investment in any of the Funds may be made only by delivery of a respective fund’s Confidential Offering Memorandum to
qualified prospective investors.
• This presentation is as of the date indicated, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the Funds,
including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment in any of the Funds.
• Any indications of interest from prospective investors in response to this material involves no obligation or commitment of any kind.
Subscriptions can be made only on the basis of a Confidential Offering Memorandum to qualified investors. The investment objectives
and methods summarized in this document represent our current focus and intentions.
• There is no assurance that Symfonie Capital will achieve its objectives or that its investment process or risk management will be
successful. Investors may lose money. No representation is made that any of the Funds will or are likely to achieve their respective
objectives or that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to any that may be shown or will make any profit at all or will
be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• This presentation does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances of any specific person who
may receive it. Before making any investment, you should thoroughly review the particular fund’s Confidential Offering Memorandum
with your financial and tax advisor to determine whether an investment in the fund is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.
• This presentation is subject to revision and updating. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources and, although
believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. This
presentation is confidential, is intended only for the person to whom it has been delivered and under no circumstance may a copy be
shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient. Symfonie Capital is solely responsible
for the content herein.