1. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
 Example: Company Trip
 Identify
 Response
 Owner
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2. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
 Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has an
effect on at least one project objective.
 Issue is a point or matter in question or in dispute.
 Threat: Negative risks
 Opportunities: Positive risks
 Risk management objectives:
 increase the probability and impact of positive events
(opportunities).
 decrease the probability and impact of negative events
(threat).
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3. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
 Risk Attitudes
 Risk Averse: people are not comfortable with risks; they are
willing to avoid the risks, doesn’t like risk.
 Risk Neutral: people manage risks based on their expected
value, that is, probability times impact. In other words, their
decisions towards risks are not biased by any other factors,
except for the risks’ expected value.
 Risk Seeker: people see risks as challenges and feel exciting
dealing with them.
 Risk Tolerant: people are indifferent about risks. This means
they do not pay much attention to risks, until these risks
become real problems.
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4. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
 11.1 Plan Risk Management
 11.2 Identify Risks
 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis
 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk
Analysis
 11.5 Plan Risk Responses
 11.6 Control Risks
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5. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
5
Knowledge
Area
Process
Initiating Planning Executing
Monitoring &
Contol
Closing
Project Risk
Management
11.1 Plan Risk
Management
11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform
Qualitative Risk
Analysis
11.4 Perform
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk
Responses
11.6 Control
Risks

6. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT
 Plan Risk Management is the process of defining how to conduct
risk management activities for a project.
 Risk Management Plan include:
 Methodology.
 Roles and responsibilities.
 Budgeting.
 Timing.
 Risk categories.
 …
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Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs
.1 Project management plan
.2 Project charter
.3 Stakeholder register
.4 EEFs
.5 OPAs
.1 Analytical techniques
.2 Expert judgment
.3 Meetings
.1 Risk management plan

7. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT
 Risk categories: Provide a means for grouping potential causes of risk.
Several approaches can be used, for example, a structure based on
project objectives by category
Example of a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
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8. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.2 IDENTIFY RISKS
 Identify Risks is the process of determining which risks may affect
the project and documenting their characteristics.
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Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Cost management plan
.3 Schedule management plan
.4 Quality management plan
.5 Human resource management
plan
.6 Scope baseline
.7 Activity cost estimates
.8 Activity duration estimates
.9 Stakeholder register
.10 Project documents
.11 Procurement documents
.12 EEFs
.13 OPAs
.1 Documentation reviews
.2 Information gathering
techniques
.3 Checklist analysis
.4 Assumptions analysis
.5 Diagramming techniques
.6 SWOT analysis
.7 Expert judgment
.1 Risk register

9. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.2 IDENTIFY RISKS
 SWOT Analysis: This analysis looks at the project to identify its strengths and
weaknesses and thereby identify risks (opportunities and threats).
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10. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.2 IDENTIFY RISKS
 Risk Register
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11. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.3 PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of
prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by
assessing and combining their probability of occurrence
and impact.
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Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Scope baseline
.3 Risk register
.4 EEFs
.5 OPAs
.1 Risk probability and
impact assessment
.2 Probability and impact
matrix
.3 Risk data quality
assessment
.4 Risk categorization
.5 Risk urgency assessment
.6 Expert judgment
.1 Project documents
updates

12. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.3 PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
 Probability and Impact Matrix
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13. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.4 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of
numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on
overall project objectives.
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Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Cost management plan
.3 Schedule management
plan
.4 Risk register
.5 EEFs
.6 OPAs
.1 Data gathering and
representation
techniques
.2 Quantitative risk
analysis
and modeling techniques
.3 Expert judgment
.1 Project documents
updates

14. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.4 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
 Expected monetary value analysis
 Expected monetary value (EMV) = Probability * Impact
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15. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES
 Plan Risk Responses is the process of developing
options and actions to enhance opportunities and to
reduce threats to project objectives.
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Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs
.1 Risk management plan
.2 Risk register
.1 Strategies for negative
risks or threats
.2 Strategies for positive
risks or opportunities
.3 Contingent response
strategies
.4 Expert judgment
.1 Project management
plan
updates
.2 Project documents
updates

16. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES
 Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats
 Avoid: Changing the project management plan to eliminate
the threat entirely: extending the schedule, changing the
strategy, or reducing scope
 Transfer: Make another party responsible for the risk by
purchasing insurance, performance bonds, warranties, or
guarantees or by outsourcing the work.
 Mitigate: Taking early action to reduce the probability and/or
impact of a threat
 Accept: Do nothing and say, “If it happens, it happens:”
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17. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES
 Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities
 Exploit: Add work or change the project to make sure the
opportunity occurs.
 Enhance: Increase the likelihood (probability) and/or positive
impacts of the risk event.
 Share: Allocate ownership of the opportunity to a third party
(forming a partnership, team, or joint venture) that is best
able to achieve the opportunity
 Accept: Do nothing and say, “If it happens, it happens:”
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18. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES
 Contingency plans are plans describing the specific actions that
will be taken if the opportunity or threat occurs.
 Secondary risks that arise as a direct outcome of implementing a
risk response.
 Residual risks These are the risks that remain after risk response
planning.
 Fallback plans These plans are specific actions that will be taken if
the contingency plan is not effective.
 Contingency reserves that are calculated based on the
quantitative risk analysis of the project and the organization’s risk
thresholds.
 Risk response owners A key concept in risk response planning is
that the project manager does not have to do it all and neither
does the team.
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19. SMSVN – PMP Training Course 2013 – Chapter 11 Prepared by Nguyen Quy Son - 20/08/2013
11.6 CONTROL RISKS
 Control Risks is the process of implementing risk
response plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring
residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk
process effectiveness throughout the project.
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Inputs Tool&Techniques Outputs
.1 Project management plan
.2 Risk register
.3 Work performance data
.4 Work performance
reports
.1 Risk reassessment
.2 Risk audits
.3 Variance and trend
analysis
.4 Technical
performance
measurement
.5 Reserve analysis
.6 Meetings
.1 Work performance
information
.2 Change requests
.3 Project management plan
updates
.4 Project documents
updates
.5 Organizational process
assets updates