SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  14
Cox, Ross and Rubinstein
        Binomial Trees

  Acedo  Fabia  Reyes  Sorbito  Vidamo
Report Outline

1
    • Overview


2
    • General Assumptions


3
    • Steps and Formulas


4
    • Example


5
    • Summary
Overview
• A type of binomial asset pricing model first proposed by John
  C. Cox, Stephen A. Ross and Mark Rubinstein (1979).

•    “Simple and efficient numerical procedure for valuing
    options for which premature exercise may be optional”

•    “All corporate securities can be interpreted as portfolios of
    puts and calls on the asset of the firm.”

• Uses discrete time model of varying price over time of the
  underlying financial instrument

• Uses binomial tree of possible price of the underlying asset ;
  each nodes valuation is performed iteratively
Assumptions

                         uS   with probability p
                S
                         dS   with probability q = p ‒ 1


• Underlying asset price S follows a multiplicative binomial
  process over discrete period.

• Rate of return on the stock over each period can have two
  possible values.

• u and d parameters are constant over the whole tree.
Assumptions

• u and d are chosen so that u = 1/d .

• Interest rates are assumed constant, d < Rf < u. It means that
  there is no arbitrage opportunity.

• No taxes, transaction cost, or margin requirements

• The underlying doesn't pay dividends over the life of the
  option.
Steps and Formulas

    Step 1. Compute for the Risk free Return

                      r   is the one period rate of return
r = EXP(i*(t/n))     t    is term in years
p = (r-d)/(u-d)      n    is the number of periods
q=1-p                p    is the risk-neutral probability up move
                     q    is the risk-neutral probability down move


    Step 2. Generate the price of the tree

       uxS          S is the price of underlying asset,
S                   u is the up move factor with probability p,
       dxS          d is the down move factor with probability q
Steps and Formulas
Step 3. Calculation of option value at each final node
(Backward Induction)
                                                 Sn is the computed
 At Final Node n:
                                                        underlying asset price
  If it is a Call Option, then use MAX(0,Sn-K)
                                                        at node n
  If it is a Put Option, then use MAX(K-Sn,0)
                                                 K is the strike price


Step 4. Sequential calculation of the option value at each
preceding node
                                                 Cu is the older upper
    At other Nodes 0 to n-1                             option price
       other nodes = [p * Cu + q * Cd] / r       Cd is the older lower
                                                        option price
Example:
Step 1. Compute for the Risk free Return

Stock price                               [S]     $ 60.00           Given
Interest rate                             [i]     5.00%             Given
Strike price                              [K]     $55.00            Given
Term in years                             [t]        1              Given
Number of periods - quarterly             [n]        4              Given
Up move factor                            [u]      1.05             Given
Down move factor                          [d]     0.9524           d = 1/u
One period rate of return                 [r]     1.0126      r = EXP(i*(t/n))
Risk-neutral probability - up move        [p]     61.67%       p = (r-d)/(u-d)
Risk-neutral probability - down move      [q]     38.33%          q=1-p

Notes: The price of LDI stock is $60/share and the one-year interest rate is
0.05. We wish to price one-year call option with a strike price of $55. Using a
four-step tree (quarterly) with assumed stock price factor increase of 1.05, we
will compute for the price of the underlying asset and the call option.
Example:
    Step 2. Generate the price of the tree
                  Formula:                                   CRR Tree:
      0      1       …               n         0      1       2       3       4

                                    Suuuu                                    72.93
                             Suuu                                    69.46
                    Suu             Suuud                    66.15           66.15
             Su              Suud                    63.00           63.00
      S             Sud             Suudd    60.00           60.00           60.00
             Sd              Sudd                    57.14           57.14
                    Sdd             Suddd                    54.42           54.42
                             Sddd                                    51.83
                                    Sdddd                                    49.36
S   is the price of underlying asset,       S = $ 60
u   is the up move factor                   u = 1.05
d   is the down move factor                 d = 0.9524
n   is the number of periods                n=4
Example:
Step 3. Calculation of option value at each final node
           CRR Tree:                      Binomial Tree for Pricing a $55 Call Option
  0      1     2     3           4              0       1      2       3      4

                                72.93                                      17.93
                        69.46
                66.15           66.15                                      11.15
        63.00           63.00
60.00           60.00           60.00                                      5.00
        57.14           57.14
                54.42           54.42                                        -
                        51.83
                                49.36                                        -
                                                Given: K = $ 55
At Final Node n:
                                                Sample Computation:
 If it is a Call Option, then use MAX(0,Sn-K)
                                                    MAX(0, 72.93-55) = 17.93
 If it is a Put Option, then use MAX(K-Sn,0)
                                                    MAX(0, 66.15-55) = 11.15
Example:
   Step 4. Calculation of the option value at each preceding node
                                          Binomial Tree for Pricing a $55 Call Option
 At other Nodes 0 to n-1
    other nodes = [p * Cu + q * Cd] / r          0      1      2       3       4
 where
    Cu is the older upper option price                                        17.93
    Cd is the older lower option price                                15.14
                                                              12.51           11.15
Given: p = 1.05, q = 0.9524, r = 1.0126               10.06           8.68
                                               7.87           6.44            5.00
Sample Computation:                                   4.62            3.04
                                                              1.85              -
O31 = [1.05*17.93+0.9524*11.15]/1.0126                                  -
    = 15.14                                                                     -
O32 = [1.05*11.15+0.9524*5.00]/1.0126
    = 8.68
O21 = [1.05*15.14+0.9524*8.68]/1.0126
    = 12.51
Summary and Conclusions
• Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Model is one of many available
  binomial options pricing models. It is a simplified alternative
  numerical method that can be used for practical
  computations of complex option values. It assumes a
  constant interest rate (risk free return), absence of arbitrage
  opportunities and constant probability of underlying assets
  upward (u) and downward (d) movement.

• Options priced derived from Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial
  tree can be used in formulating strategy that will
  generate/ lock in pure arbitrage profits if the market price of
  an option differs from the value given by the model.
References:
• Cox, J.C., Ross S.A, Rubinstein, M., Option Pricing : A Simplified
  Approach. (1979). Published in Journal of Finance and
  Economics
• Watsham, Terry J., and Parramore, Keith. Quantitative
  Methods in Finance. (1997)
• http://investexcel.net/736/binomial-option-pricing-excel/
• http://www.sitmo.com/article/binomial-and-trinomial-trees/
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_options_pricing_mode
  l
• http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-
  berlin.de/fedc_homepage/xplore/tutorials/xlghtmlnode63.ht
  ml#bin-fig2
• http://www.terry.uga.edu/~mayhew/Old/chapter9.pdf
Thank
 You!

Contenu connexe

En vedette

2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
 
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTEverything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTExpeed Software
 
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsKurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Tessa Mero
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...RachelPearson36
 

En vedette (20)

2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
2024 State of Marketing Report – by Hubspot
 
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPTEverything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
Everything You Need To Know About ChatGPT
 
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
 
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture CodeSkeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 

Crr presentation

  • 1. Cox, Ross and Rubinstein Binomial Trees Acedo  Fabia  Reyes  Sorbito  Vidamo
  • 2. Report Outline 1 • Overview 2 • General Assumptions 3 • Steps and Formulas 4 • Example 5 • Summary
  • 3. Overview • A type of binomial asset pricing model first proposed by John C. Cox, Stephen A. Ross and Mark Rubinstein (1979). • “Simple and efficient numerical procedure for valuing options for which premature exercise may be optional” • “All corporate securities can be interpreted as portfolios of puts and calls on the asset of the firm.” • Uses discrete time model of varying price over time of the underlying financial instrument • Uses binomial tree of possible price of the underlying asset ; each nodes valuation is performed iteratively
  • 4. Assumptions uS with probability p S dS with probability q = p ‒ 1 • Underlying asset price S follows a multiplicative binomial process over discrete period. • Rate of return on the stock over each period can have two possible values. • u and d parameters are constant over the whole tree.
  • 5. Assumptions • u and d are chosen so that u = 1/d . • Interest rates are assumed constant, d < Rf < u. It means that there is no arbitrage opportunity. • No taxes, transaction cost, or margin requirements • The underlying doesn't pay dividends over the life of the option.
  • 6. Steps and Formulas Step 1. Compute for the Risk free Return r is the one period rate of return r = EXP(i*(t/n)) t is term in years p = (r-d)/(u-d) n is the number of periods q=1-p p is the risk-neutral probability up move q is the risk-neutral probability down move Step 2. Generate the price of the tree uxS S is the price of underlying asset, S u is the up move factor with probability p, dxS d is the down move factor with probability q
  • 7. Steps and Formulas Step 3. Calculation of option value at each final node (Backward Induction) Sn is the computed At Final Node n: underlying asset price If it is a Call Option, then use MAX(0,Sn-K) at node n If it is a Put Option, then use MAX(K-Sn,0) K is the strike price Step 4. Sequential calculation of the option value at each preceding node Cu is the older upper At other Nodes 0 to n-1 option price other nodes = [p * Cu + q * Cd] / r Cd is the older lower option price
  • 8. Example: Step 1. Compute for the Risk free Return Stock price [S] $ 60.00 Given Interest rate [i] 5.00% Given Strike price [K] $55.00 Given Term in years [t] 1 Given Number of periods - quarterly [n] 4 Given Up move factor [u] 1.05 Given Down move factor [d] 0.9524 d = 1/u One period rate of return [r] 1.0126 r = EXP(i*(t/n)) Risk-neutral probability - up move [p] 61.67% p = (r-d)/(u-d) Risk-neutral probability - down move [q] 38.33% q=1-p Notes: The price of LDI stock is $60/share and the one-year interest rate is 0.05. We wish to price one-year call option with a strike price of $55. Using a four-step tree (quarterly) with assumed stock price factor increase of 1.05, we will compute for the price of the underlying asset and the call option.
  • 9. Example: Step 2. Generate the price of the tree Formula: CRR Tree: 0 1 … n 0 1 2 3 4 Suuuu 72.93 Suuu 69.46 Suu Suuud 66.15 66.15 Su Suud 63.00 63.00 S Sud Suudd 60.00 60.00 60.00 Sd Sudd 57.14 57.14 Sdd Suddd 54.42 54.42 Sddd 51.83 Sdddd 49.36 S is the price of underlying asset, S = $ 60 u is the up move factor u = 1.05 d is the down move factor d = 0.9524 n is the number of periods n=4
  • 10. Example: Step 3. Calculation of option value at each final node CRR Tree: Binomial Tree for Pricing a $55 Call Option 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 72.93 17.93 69.46 66.15 66.15 11.15 63.00 63.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 5.00 57.14 57.14 54.42 54.42 - 51.83 49.36 - Given: K = $ 55 At Final Node n: Sample Computation: If it is a Call Option, then use MAX(0,Sn-K) MAX(0, 72.93-55) = 17.93 If it is a Put Option, then use MAX(K-Sn,0) MAX(0, 66.15-55) = 11.15
  • 11. Example: Step 4. Calculation of the option value at each preceding node Binomial Tree for Pricing a $55 Call Option At other Nodes 0 to n-1 other nodes = [p * Cu + q * Cd] / r 0 1 2 3 4 where Cu is the older upper option price 17.93 Cd is the older lower option price 15.14 12.51 11.15 Given: p = 1.05, q = 0.9524, r = 1.0126 10.06 8.68 7.87 6.44 5.00 Sample Computation: 4.62 3.04 1.85 - O31 = [1.05*17.93+0.9524*11.15]/1.0126 - = 15.14 - O32 = [1.05*11.15+0.9524*5.00]/1.0126 = 8.68 O21 = [1.05*15.14+0.9524*8.68]/1.0126 = 12.51
  • 12. Summary and Conclusions • Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Model is one of many available binomial options pricing models. It is a simplified alternative numerical method that can be used for practical computations of complex option values. It assumes a constant interest rate (risk free return), absence of arbitrage opportunities and constant probability of underlying assets upward (u) and downward (d) movement. • Options priced derived from Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial tree can be used in formulating strategy that will generate/ lock in pure arbitrage profits if the market price of an option differs from the value given by the model.
  • 13. References: • Cox, J.C., Ross S.A, Rubinstein, M., Option Pricing : A Simplified Approach. (1979). Published in Journal of Finance and Economics • Watsham, Terry J., and Parramore, Keith. Quantitative Methods in Finance. (1997) • http://investexcel.net/736/binomial-option-pricing-excel/ • http://www.sitmo.com/article/binomial-and-trinomial-trees/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_options_pricing_mode l • http://sfb649.wiwi.hu- berlin.de/fedc_homepage/xplore/tutorials/xlghtmlnode63.ht ml#bin-fig2 • http://www.terry.uga.edu/~mayhew/Old/chapter9.pdf

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Step 1. Binomial model acts similarly to the asset that exists in a risk neutral world.pu+qd = exp(i*∆t) = r, where ∆t = t/nt = term of the optionn= number of periodsIts variance: pu^2 + qd^2 – (exp(i*∆t))^2 =𝜎^2∆tStep 1. Binomial model acts similarly to the asset that exists in a risk neutral world.pu+qd = exp(i*∆t) = r, where ∆t = t/nt = term of the optionn= number of periodsIts variance: pu^2 + qd^2 – (exp(i*∆t))^2 =𝜎^2∆t
  2. Notice that the lattice is symmetrical, that is due to the assumption that d=1/u (ud=1).