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Equity Selection

    Acedo * Fabia * Reyes * Sorbito * Vidamo
Fund Description
Fund Size            100 million pesos
Launch Date          March 23, 2013
Fund Structure       Equity Fund
Fund Currency        Php
Management Fee       1% pa
Investment Horizon   Medium Term
Policy Constraints    • Not less than 10% in government
                      securities
                      • Not more than 10% of the portfolio to
                      be invested in any one stock or 10% of the
                      issuers equity, whichever is smaller
                      • No short positions
                      • No leverage
Client Requirements
Actuarial Return      10% net of fees and taxes
Actuarial Liability   350 Million pesos,
                      260 Million is matched by other assets fully
                      dedicated and cash-flow matched with the
                      liabilities to be paid out beyond 5 years
Actuarial Forecast    10 Million in liquid or near liquid assets.
Others                The fund must be fully invested except for
                      500,000 pesos in cash for operating
                      expenses outside of management fees
Philippine Stock Market Outlook
• Based on macroeconomic analysis, sectors we prefer are :




 Consumer Staples        Utilities             Financial




               Real estate           Tourism
PSEi
                                    Correlation matrix
                Financials Holding firms Industrial Mining & oil            Property     Services
 Financials             1.00           0.94           0.88           0.63         0.96       0.82
Holding firms           0.94           1.00           0.95           0.68         0.96       0.77
 Industrial             0.88           0.95           1.00           0.72         0.95       0.77
Mining & oil            0.63           0.68           0.72           1.00         0.68       0.76
  Property              0.96           0.96           0.95           0.68         1.00       0.84
  Services              0.82           0.77           0.77           0.76         0.84       1.00

                                          RISK-RETURN STATS
                           Expected                   Sharpe
                            return         Volatility  Ratio           Optimizer
           Financials          8.25           33.44          -0.01          0%
           Holding
           firms               16.64          43.64          0.13           30%
           Industrial          12.01          36.56          0.30            0%
           Mining &
           oil                 23.77          51.71          -0.14          40%
           Property            5.92           43.61           0.32           0%
           Services            1.52           18.66           0.32          30%
Stock Selection Screening
                      Fundamentals
   Cheap or Not          P/E or P/B, etc. below its Peers
     Liquidity           Higher Market Cap and Volume
     Leverage                 ROI with low leverage
      Growth              Analysis of PEG, P/E and ROE
      Others                      Dividend Yield
                        Technicals
Candle sticks Chart              2007 up to date
                  Risk – Return Statistics
  Risk and Return                 Sharpe Ratio
               Other Analysts’ Consensus
       Source                        Reuters
               Optimization per Sector
Mean-Variance Opt    Min Variance and Expected Return > 15%
Banks
                       RISK-RETURN STATS                                     FUNDAMENTALS                              ALLOCATION
                                                                                           Ave daily volume
             Mean            Std. Var      Sharpe Ratio            P/B      Dividend Yield      (6-mo)                                   Optimizer
  SECB       21.10            50.68            0.36                    2.46           1.24   703,936.60                     0.20            0.50
  UBP         12.64           47.73               0.20                 1.56           2.65   284,895.80                     0.00            0.00
  PNB         8.89            59.22               0.10                   1.84               -      1,231,893.00             0.00            0.00
  RCB         10.48           47.97               0.16                   1.54             1.54      653,179.00              0.00            0.00
  BPI          8.81           23.19               0.25                 3.54             1.88       1,707,217.00             0.50            0.50
  PSB          8.95           24.52               0.24                   1.44            0.77        7,073.94               0.00            0.00
  MBT         9.61            44.59               0.15                   2.23            0.88      3,316,030.00             0.15            0.00
  BDO         4.38            41.18               0.03                   2.42               -      4,854,643.00             0.15            0.00
                                                                                                                            1.00            1.00
      200
      180
      160
      140
      120
      100
      80
      60
      40
      20
         -
                                                                   Rizal Commercial                                         Metropolitan
             Security Bank   Union Bank of the       Philippine                        Bank of the     Philippine Savings                    BDO Unibank,
                                                                        Banking                                             Bank & Trust
             Corporation      Philippines, Inc.    National Bank                    Philippine Islands        Bank                               Inc.
                                                                     Corporation                                             Company
12/30/2011        97                  66                 56              30                 55                 85                  68              53
MAX              179                125                  104             68                 106               135                  114             99
MIN               16                  20                 12               9                 33                 36                  20              18
LAST PRICE       179                120                  98              67                 106               135                  113             88
Holding Firms
                        RISK-RETURN STATS                                           FUNDAMENTALS                                  ALLOCATION
                                       Sharpe                                                  Div.     Ave daily volume
                                                                     P/B          P/E
                     Mean     Std. Var  Ratio                                                  Yield         (6-mo)                                 Optimizer
          JGS        21.66          81.65           0.23             1.71         11.73        0.81       2,095,162.00                0.25            0.00
          AGI        18.24          63.89           0.24             2.59         19.01        1.80      17,434,400.00                0.10            0.00
          DMC        36.33          74.87           0.45             3.68         13.56        0.00       2,042,333.00                0.20            0.00
           SM        14.90          34.94           0.34             3.09         25.97        1.18        441,296.30                 0.05            0.09
          MPI         0.33          31.57          -0.08             1.40         20.02        0.61      34,343,560.00                0.10            0.55
           AC         4.67          35.73           0.05             2.92         33.29        0.69        727,891.50                 0.00            0.00
           LPZ        7.14          72.58           0.06             0.74          5.69        0.00       6,542,529.00                0.00            0.00
          AEV        37.46          52.09           0.66             3.42         13.97        3.23       1,428,067.00                0.30            0.36
          FDC        -0.86          75.51          -0.05             0.89         14.39        1.61       1,004,184.00                0.00            0.00
                                                                                                                                      1.00
   8.00
   7.00
   6.00
   5.00
   4.00
   3.00
   2.00
   1.00
      -
  (1.00)
                                                                                    Metro Pacific                                                           Filinvest
              JG Summit       Alliance Global   DMCI Holdings,   SM Investments                           Ayala      Lopez Holdings    Aboitiz Equity
                                                                                    Investments                                                           Development
             Holdings, Inc.    Group, Inc.          Inc.          Corporation                          Corporation    Corporation      Ventures, Inc.
                                                                                    Corporation                                                           Corporation
12/30/2011        3.22             2.34              3.72             6.37              1.30              5.74           1.63                3.68               1.21
MAX               3.71             3.00              4.09             6.95              1.82              6.36           2.01                4.06               1.77
MIN               0.53             0.41              0.90             5.21              0.82              5.08           (0.03)              1.70               (0.47)
LAST PRICE        3.71             2.98              3.99             6.94              1.66              6.31           1.98                4.00               1.77
Mining and Oil
                    RISK-RETURN STATS                                                   FUNDAMENTALS                                     ALLOCATION
                                   Sharpe                                                                          Ave daily volume
                                                                 P/E            ROI      EPS     Div. Yield
                 Mean     Std. Var  Ratio                                                                               (6-mo)                          Optimizer
        SCC      39.90          57.08            0.65           14.83       20.79      15.57           0.00           272,644.90               100.00     0.20
         PX       31.15         50.02            0.56           24.69       12.84      0.72            0.00          5,087,707.00                         0.30
        ORE      -10.47         121.67          -0.11            9.51       16.00      0.36            0.00           868,180.30                          0.00
         AT        5.41         63.67            0.04           24.95        5.00      0.92            0.00          1,515,709.00                         0.00
        OV       18.30          59.55            0.26           25.00       10.32      0.00            0.00        327,079,700.00                         0.02
       OPMB       -0.31         43.39           -0.08           12.96       11.57      0.00            0.00         36,268,030.00                         0.00
        BSC       -5.76         41.79           -0.21            3.75       27.00      0.07            0.00          8,024,672.00                         0.48
      8.00

      6.00

      4.00

      2.00

        -

    (2.00)

    (4.00)

    (6.00)
                                                                                  Atlas Consolidated
                                                                                                                               Oriental Petroleum
              Semirara Mining       Philex Mining         Oriental Peninsula         Mining and               The Philodrill                            Basic Energy
                                                                                                                                  and Minerals
                Corporation         Corporation         Resources Group, Inc.       Development               Corporation                               Corporation
                                                                                                                                  Corporation
                                                                                     Corporation
12/30/2011         5.40                  3.02                   1.38                    2.82                     (3.82)               (4.02)               (1.67)
MAX                5.56                  3.31                   2.48                    3.16                     (2.81)               (3.58)               (0.73)
MIN                2.85                  0.86                  (0.92)                   1.01                     (4.77)               (4.83)               (2.21)
LAST PRICE         5.56                  2.86                   1.19                    3.09                     (3.19)               (3.86)               (1.29)
Consumer
                     RISK-RETURN STATS                                                   FUNDAMENTALS                                 ALLOCATION
                                     Sharpe                                                                       Ave daily volume
                                                                   EPS           P/E    Div. Yield EBITDA/SH
                  Mean     Std. Var   Ratio                                                                            (6-mo)                        Optimizer
       URC        28.80           65.32            0.39            1.04      23.69        1.58       1.45          2,095,162.00                        0.00
        JFC       14.86           23.11            0.51            1.20      30.70        1.73       2.08          17,434,400.00          0.30         1.00
       RFM        31.14           78.10            0.36            0.08      22.42        6.37       0.09          2,042,333.00           0.20         0.00
       SMC        12.48           40.28            0.24            1.49      14.28        4.83       6.02           441,296.30                         0.00
      PGOLD       70.65           12.11            5.59            0.38                   0.00       0.00          34,343,560.00          0.20         0.00
         PF       81.30           204.79           0.38            6.13      13.74        1.20      11.80           727,891.50            0.30         0.00

  10.00


      8.00


      6.00


      4.00


      2.00


        -


   (2.00)
                                           San Miguel Pure Foods     Universal Robina            Jollibee Foods
              Puregold Price Club, Inc.                                                                                 RFM Corporation    San Miguel Corporation
                                               Company, Inc.          Corporation                 Corporation
12/30/2011              2.87                       7.24                   3.87                       4.50                    0.17                  4.76
MAX                     3.72                       8.01                   4.55                       4.84                    1.61                  5.16
MIN                     2.50                       3.52                   1.59                       3.51                   (1.51)                 3.61
LAST PRICE              3.65                       5.60                   4.64                       4.74                    1.56                  4.74
Utilities, Telco and Other Services
                            RISK-RETURN STATS                         FUNDAMENTALS
                                                                                                           ALLOCATION
                                            Sharpe                            Div.
                                                              EPS        P/E        ebitda/sh Ave volume
                       Mean       Std. Var   Ratio                            Yield                                   Optimizer
             MER       23.55       47.96      0.43         3.45         20.75 3.12     5.95    638,988.10      0.30     0.25
             FPH        1.06       67.00     -0.03         1.54          4.43 2.64     4.06    938,046.40               0.00
             MWC       15.04       27.47      0.44         0.75         13.12 1.87     1.31   2,674,040.00     0.20     0.07
             GLO       -1.88       26.32     -0.19         0.31         20.83 5.78    62.51    88,292.99                0.36
              TEL       2.20       15.49     -0.05        31.13         17.00 4.94    92.04    165,280.30      0.30     0.32
              AP       41.07       50.67      0.75         0.84          0.00 3.43     0.87   2,783,387.00     0.20     0.00

                                                                    Utilities
      350


      300


      250


      200


      150


      100


      50


       -
               Aboitiz Power Corporation       Manila Electric Company          First Philippine Holdings Corporation   Manila Water Company, Inc.
12/30/2011                30                            247                                      62                                19
MAX                       39                            314                                     114                                37
MIN                       3                              39                                      15                                 9
LAST PRICE                36                            314                                     106                                37
Telcommunication
      3500

      3000

      2500

      2000

      1500

      1000

       500

         0
                               Globe Telecom, Inc.                                                 Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company
12/30/2011                            1133                                                                          2453.28
MAX                                  1499.79                                                                        2867.78
MIN                                    710                                                                          1772.77
LAST PRICE                            1205                                                                           2792



                                                          Other Services
       9.00
       8.00
       7.00
       6.00
       5.00
       4.00
       3.00
       2.00
       1.00
         -
              Aboitiz Power                             First Philippine Holdings   Manila Water Company,                           Philippine Long Distance
                              Manila Electric Company                                                        Globe Telecom, Inc.
              Corporation                                      Corporation                  Inc.                                     Telephone Company
 12/30/2011       3.39                 5.51                       4.12                      2.97                    7.03                        7.81
 MAX              3.65                 5.75                       4.73                      3.61                    7.31                        7.96
 MIN              1.22                 3.65                       2.72                      2.21                    6.57                        7.48
 LAST PRICE       3.58                 5.75                       4.66                      3.61                    7.09                        7.93
Properties
                                                                    FUNDAMENTALS
                         RISK-RETURN STATS                                                              ALLOCATION
                                        Sharpe                                Div.
                                                           EPS       P/E                Ave volume                   Optimizer
                      Mean     Std. Var  Ratio                               Yield
              RLC      2.19     62.39         -0.01        0.29     20.44    35.71      3,288,723.00       0.20        0.00
              ALI      8.79     44.52          0.13        0.17     43.28     0.00     10,445,860.00       0.30        0.00
             SMPH     10.78     25.52          0.30        0.15     30.72    29.36     14,866,540.00       0.20        0.80
              MEG     -7.26     71.97         -0.14        0.07     12.72     0.00     74,760,880.00                   0.00
              CPG     31.44     89.60          0.32        0.05     5.35     61.22     14,439,860.00       0.30        0.20


      8.00
      7.00
      6.00
      5.00
      4.00
      3.00
      2.00
      1.00
        -
   (1.00)
   (2.00)
   (3.00)
               Robinsons Land                                                                                          Century Properties
                                        Ayala Land, Inc.     SM Prime Holdings, Inc.     Megaworld Corporation
                Corporation                                                                                               Group, Inc.
12/30/2011          2.42                     2.72                     2.36                       0.53                         0.66
MAX                 3.19                     3.47                     2.94                       6.94                         1.66
MIN                 1.40                     1.72                     1.72                      (0.62)                        (2.04)
LAST PRICE          3.19                     3.39                     2.90                       6.94                         1.66
Final Picks                                                         Risk/return stats
                                                      (using rolling 12-mo returns for the period Jan 2007 - Feb 2013)
                                                                                                Expected
            FUND SIZE:                                                                                       Volatility Sharpe ratio
                                                                                                  return
         100,000,000.00                                                             Financials
                                     Security Bank Corporation                                       21.10        50.68        0.36
       Operating expense:
                                     Bank of the Philippine Islands                                    8.81       23.19        0.25
            500,000.00               Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company                                 9.61       44.59        0.15
                                     BDO Unibank, Inc.                                                 4.38       41.18        0.03
        Management fee:
                                                                                 Holding firms
           1,000,000.00              JG Summit Holdings, Inc.                                        21.66        81.65        0.23
                                     Alliance Global Group, Inc.                                     18.24        63.89        0.24
      Investment in T-bills:
                                     DMCI Holdings, Inc.                                             36.33        74.87        0.45
          10,000,000.00              SM Investments Corporation                                      14.90        34.94        0.34
   TOTAL Available for EQUITY        Metro Pacific Investments Corporation                             0.33       31.57       (0.08)
          investment:                Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc.                                   37.46        52.09        0.66
                                                                                  Mining & Oil
          88,500,000.00              Semirara Mining Corporation                                     39.90        57.08        0.65
  Total cost of equity allocation:                                                 Consumer
                                     Jollibee Foods Corporation                                      14.86        23.11        0.51
          88,449,523.40              RFM Corporation                                                 31.14        78.10        0.36
           Excess cash:              Puregold Price Club, Inc.                                       70.65        12.11        5.59
                                     San Miguel Pure Foods Company, Inc.                             81.30       204.79        0.38
            50,476.60                                                  Utilities, telco & other services
                                     Manila Electric Company                                         23.55        47.96        0.43
                                     Manila Water Company, Inc.                                      15.04        27.47        0.44
Portfolio Expected                   Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company                        2.20       15.49       (0.05)
                          24.66      Aboitiz Power Corporation                                       41.07        50.67        0.75
return
                                                                                    Property
Portfolio Volatility      54.01
                                     Robinsons Land Corporation                                        2.19       62.39       (0.01)
Sharpe ratio              0.406      Ayala Land, Inc.                                                  8.79       44.52        0.13
                                     SM Prime Holdings, Inc.                                         10.78        25.52        0.30
                                     Century Properties Group, Inc.                              31.44         89.60          0.32
Final Picks
                                               SECB     BPI MBT BDO JGS AGI DMC SM p MPI SCC JFC RFM MER MWC TEL AP p RLC ALI SMPH CPG
Security Bank Corporation                       1.00
Bank of the Philippine Islands                  0.79     1.00
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company               0.91     0.83   1.00
BDO Unibank, Inc.                               0.95     0.81   0.93    1.00
JG Summit Holdings, Inc.                        0.91     0.66   0.90    0.93    1.00
Alliance Global Group, Inc.                     0.86     0.77   0.91    0.90    0.91    1.00
DMCI Holdings, Inc.                             0.85     0.66   0.90    0.89    0.93    0.94   1.00
SM Investments Corporation                      0.86     0.88   0.96    0.90    0.84    0.89   0.88   1.00
Metro Pacific Investments Corporation           0.35     0.62   0.39    0.41    0.30    0.46   0.40   0.56   1.00
Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc.                   0.64     0.49   0.73    0.67    0.82    0.79   0.78   0.63   0.10
Semirara Mining Corporation                     0.49     0.19   0.40    0.56    0.70    0.60   0.62   0.33   0.00    1.00
Jollibee Foods Corporation                      0.73     0.71   0.85    0.80    0.78    0.78   0.80   0.86   0.39    0.45 1.00
RFM Corporation                                 0.79     0.79   0.87    0.85    0.82    0.78   0.76   0.85   0.40    0.39 0.74 1.00
Manila Electric Company                         0.32     0.34   0.48    0.36    0.33    0.50   0.55   0.54   0.41   (0.08) 0.45 0.25 1.00
Manila Water Company, Inc.                       0.58 0.46 0.37 0.64 0.50 0.46 0.40 0.39 0.30 0.45 0.22 0.47 (0.04) 1.00
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 0.73 0.52 0.60 0.73 0.61                     0.57   0.60   0.60   0.36    0.29    0.44    0.51    0.36   0.75   1.00
Robinsons Land Corporation                         0.87 0.77 0.93 0.88 0.81             0.84   0.84   0.91   0.39    0.24    0.73    0.83    0.57   0.46   0.71   0.61   1.00
Ayala Land, Inc.                                   0.92 0.82 0.96 0.95 0.89             0.90   0.88   0.94   0.41    0.41    0.77    0.89    0.45   0.55   0.71   0.69   0.96 1.00
SM Prime Holdings, Inc.                            0.74 0.82 0.79 0.75 0.57             0.62   0.63   0.84   0.53   (0.02)   0.70    0.70    0.51   0.37   0.62   0.24   0.82 0.81 1.00
Century Properties Group, Inc.                     0.41 0.23 0.28 0.35 0.26             0.25   0.31   0.26   0.19    0.08    0.19   (0.05)   0.25   0.17   0.32   0.01   0.27 0.28 0.37 1.00
*insufficient data points for Puregold, San Miguel Purefoods, Aboitiz Equity Ventures
Final Picks                            TAA                              FUND ALLOCATION
                                                                 Fund allocation Last price                  Cost
                                         Sector Equity    Wt       (PhP mio)      (PhP/sh) # of shares*   (PhP mio)
Financials                                    17%                         15.00
Security Bank Corporation                          20%      3.4%           3.01        179.2    16,791          3.01
Bank of the Philippine Islands                     50%      8.4%           7.47        105.7    70,699          7.47
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company                  15%      2.6%           2.26        112.7    20,024          2.26
BDO Unibank, Inc.                                  15%      2.6%           2.26         87.9    25,674          2.26
Holding firms                                 30%                         26.55
JG Summit Holdings, Inc.                           25%      7.5%           6.64        40.95 162,088            6.64
Alliance Global Group, Inc.                        10%      3.0%           2.66        19.74 134,498            2.65
DMCI Holdings, Inc.                                20%      6.0%           5.31         53.9    98,516          5.31
SM Investments Corporation                           5%     1.5%           1.33        1033      1,285          1.33
Metro Pacific Investments Corporation              10%      3.0%           2.66         5.28 502,841            2.66
Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc.                      30%      9.0%           7.97         54.5 146,147            7.97
Mining & Oil                                   2%                          1.77
Semirara Mining Corporation                       100%      2.0%           1.77          261     6,782          1.77
Consumer                                      16%                         14.16
Jollibee Foods Corporation                         30%      4.8%           4.25          115    36,939          4.25
RFM Corporation                                    20%      3.2%           2.83         4.77 593,711            2.83
Puregold Price Club, Inc.                          20%      3.2%           2.83        38.65    73,273          2.83
San Miguel Pure Foods Company, Inc.                30%      4.8%           4.25        271.4    15,652          4.25
Utilities, telco & other services             25%                         22.13
Manila Electric Company                            30%      7.5%           6.64          314    21,139          6.64
Manila Water Company, Inc.                         20%      5.0%           4.43         36.8 120,245            4.43
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company         30%      7.5%           6.64        2792      2,377          6.64
Aboitiz Power Corporation                          20%      5.0%           4.43           36 122,917            4.43
Property                                      10%                          8.85
Robinsons Land Corporation                         20%      2.0%           1.77         24.3    72,840          1.77
Ayala Land, Inc.                                   30%      3.0%           2.66         29.8    89,094          2.66
SM Prime Holdings, Inc.                            20%      2.0%           1.77         18.2    97,253          1.77
Century Properties Group, Inc.                     30%      3.0%           2.66         5.28 502,841            2.66
Total                                        100%          100%           88.45                                88.45
References:
• Bloomberg
• Reuters
• IMF

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Equity allocation

  • 1. Equity Selection Acedo * Fabia * Reyes * Sorbito * Vidamo
  • 2. Fund Description Fund Size 100 million pesos Launch Date March 23, 2013 Fund Structure Equity Fund Fund Currency Php Management Fee 1% pa Investment Horizon Medium Term Policy Constraints • Not less than 10% in government securities • Not more than 10% of the portfolio to be invested in any one stock or 10% of the issuers equity, whichever is smaller • No short positions • No leverage
  • 3. Client Requirements Actuarial Return 10% net of fees and taxes Actuarial Liability 350 Million pesos, 260 Million is matched by other assets fully dedicated and cash-flow matched with the liabilities to be paid out beyond 5 years Actuarial Forecast 10 Million in liquid or near liquid assets. Others The fund must be fully invested except for 500,000 pesos in cash for operating expenses outside of management fees
  • 4. Philippine Stock Market Outlook • Based on macroeconomic analysis, sectors we prefer are : Consumer Staples Utilities Financial Real estate Tourism
  • 5. PSEi Correlation matrix Financials Holding firms Industrial Mining & oil Property Services Financials 1.00 0.94 0.88 0.63 0.96 0.82 Holding firms 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.68 0.96 0.77 Industrial 0.88 0.95 1.00 0.72 0.95 0.77 Mining & oil 0.63 0.68 0.72 1.00 0.68 0.76 Property 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.68 1.00 0.84 Services 0.82 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.84 1.00 RISK-RETURN STATS Expected Sharpe return Volatility Ratio Optimizer Financials 8.25 33.44 -0.01 0% Holding firms 16.64 43.64 0.13 30% Industrial 12.01 36.56 0.30 0% Mining & oil 23.77 51.71 -0.14 40% Property 5.92 43.61 0.32 0% Services 1.52 18.66 0.32 30%
  • 6. Stock Selection Screening Fundamentals Cheap or Not P/E or P/B, etc. below its Peers Liquidity Higher Market Cap and Volume Leverage ROI with low leverage Growth Analysis of PEG, P/E and ROE Others Dividend Yield Technicals Candle sticks Chart 2007 up to date Risk – Return Statistics Risk and Return Sharpe Ratio Other Analysts’ Consensus Source Reuters Optimization per Sector Mean-Variance Opt Min Variance and Expected Return > 15%
  • 7. Banks RISK-RETURN STATS FUNDAMENTALS ALLOCATION Ave daily volume Mean Std. Var Sharpe Ratio P/B Dividend Yield (6-mo) Optimizer SECB 21.10 50.68 0.36 2.46 1.24 703,936.60 0.20 0.50 UBP 12.64 47.73 0.20 1.56 2.65 284,895.80 0.00 0.00 PNB 8.89 59.22 0.10 1.84 - 1,231,893.00 0.00 0.00 RCB 10.48 47.97 0.16 1.54 1.54 653,179.00 0.00 0.00 BPI 8.81 23.19 0.25 3.54 1.88 1,707,217.00 0.50 0.50 PSB 8.95 24.52 0.24 1.44 0.77 7,073.94 0.00 0.00 MBT 9.61 44.59 0.15 2.23 0.88 3,316,030.00 0.15 0.00 BDO 4.38 41.18 0.03 2.42 - 4,854,643.00 0.15 0.00 1.00 1.00 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - Rizal Commercial Metropolitan Security Bank Union Bank of the Philippine Bank of the Philippine Savings BDO Unibank, Banking Bank & Trust Corporation Philippines, Inc. National Bank Philippine Islands Bank Inc. Corporation Company 12/30/2011 97 66 56 30 55 85 68 53 MAX 179 125 104 68 106 135 114 99 MIN 16 20 12 9 33 36 20 18 LAST PRICE 179 120 98 67 106 135 113 88
  • 8. Holding Firms RISK-RETURN STATS FUNDAMENTALS ALLOCATION Sharpe Div. Ave daily volume P/B P/E Mean Std. Var Ratio Yield (6-mo) Optimizer JGS 21.66 81.65 0.23 1.71 11.73 0.81 2,095,162.00 0.25 0.00 AGI 18.24 63.89 0.24 2.59 19.01 1.80 17,434,400.00 0.10 0.00 DMC 36.33 74.87 0.45 3.68 13.56 0.00 2,042,333.00 0.20 0.00 SM 14.90 34.94 0.34 3.09 25.97 1.18 441,296.30 0.05 0.09 MPI 0.33 31.57 -0.08 1.40 20.02 0.61 34,343,560.00 0.10 0.55 AC 4.67 35.73 0.05 2.92 33.29 0.69 727,891.50 0.00 0.00 LPZ 7.14 72.58 0.06 0.74 5.69 0.00 6,542,529.00 0.00 0.00 AEV 37.46 52.09 0.66 3.42 13.97 3.23 1,428,067.00 0.30 0.36 FDC -0.86 75.51 -0.05 0.89 14.39 1.61 1,004,184.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - (1.00) Metro Pacific Filinvest JG Summit Alliance Global DMCI Holdings, SM Investments Ayala Lopez Holdings Aboitiz Equity Investments Development Holdings, Inc. Group, Inc. Inc. Corporation Corporation Corporation Ventures, Inc. Corporation Corporation 12/30/2011 3.22 2.34 3.72 6.37 1.30 5.74 1.63 3.68 1.21 MAX 3.71 3.00 4.09 6.95 1.82 6.36 2.01 4.06 1.77 MIN 0.53 0.41 0.90 5.21 0.82 5.08 (0.03) 1.70 (0.47) LAST PRICE 3.71 2.98 3.99 6.94 1.66 6.31 1.98 4.00 1.77
  • 9. Mining and Oil RISK-RETURN STATS FUNDAMENTALS ALLOCATION Sharpe Ave daily volume P/E ROI EPS Div. Yield Mean Std. Var Ratio (6-mo) Optimizer SCC 39.90 57.08 0.65 14.83 20.79 15.57 0.00 272,644.90 100.00 0.20 PX 31.15 50.02 0.56 24.69 12.84 0.72 0.00 5,087,707.00 0.30 ORE -10.47 121.67 -0.11 9.51 16.00 0.36 0.00 868,180.30 0.00 AT 5.41 63.67 0.04 24.95 5.00 0.92 0.00 1,515,709.00 0.00 OV 18.30 59.55 0.26 25.00 10.32 0.00 0.00 327,079,700.00 0.02 OPMB -0.31 43.39 -0.08 12.96 11.57 0.00 0.00 36,268,030.00 0.00 BSC -5.76 41.79 -0.21 3.75 27.00 0.07 0.00 8,024,672.00 0.48 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 - (2.00) (4.00) (6.00) Atlas Consolidated Oriental Petroleum Semirara Mining Philex Mining Oriental Peninsula Mining and The Philodrill Basic Energy and Minerals Corporation Corporation Resources Group, Inc. Development Corporation Corporation Corporation Corporation 12/30/2011 5.40 3.02 1.38 2.82 (3.82) (4.02) (1.67) MAX 5.56 3.31 2.48 3.16 (2.81) (3.58) (0.73) MIN 2.85 0.86 (0.92) 1.01 (4.77) (4.83) (2.21) LAST PRICE 5.56 2.86 1.19 3.09 (3.19) (3.86) (1.29)
  • 10. Consumer RISK-RETURN STATS FUNDAMENTALS ALLOCATION Sharpe Ave daily volume EPS P/E Div. Yield EBITDA/SH Mean Std. Var Ratio (6-mo) Optimizer URC 28.80 65.32 0.39 1.04 23.69 1.58 1.45 2,095,162.00 0.00 JFC 14.86 23.11 0.51 1.20 30.70 1.73 2.08 17,434,400.00 0.30 1.00 RFM 31.14 78.10 0.36 0.08 22.42 6.37 0.09 2,042,333.00 0.20 0.00 SMC 12.48 40.28 0.24 1.49 14.28 4.83 6.02 441,296.30 0.00 PGOLD 70.65 12.11 5.59 0.38 0.00 0.00 34,343,560.00 0.20 0.00 PF 81.30 204.79 0.38 6.13 13.74 1.20 11.80 727,891.50 0.30 0.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 - (2.00) San Miguel Pure Foods Universal Robina Jollibee Foods Puregold Price Club, Inc. RFM Corporation San Miguel Corporation Company, Inc. Corporation Corporation 12/30/2011 2.87 7.24 3.87 4.50 0.17 4.76 MAX 3.72 8.01 4.55 4.84 1.61 5.16 MIN 2.50 3.52 1.59 3.51 (1.51) 3.61 LAST PRICE 3.65 5.60 4.64 4.74 1.56 4.74
  • 11. Utilities, Telco and Other Services RISK-RETURN STATS FUNDAMENTALS ALLOCATION Sharpe Div. EPS P/E ebitda/sh Ave volume Mean Std. Var Ratio Yield Optimizer MER 23.55 47.96 0.43 3.45 20.75 3.12 5.95 638,988.10 0.30 0.25 FPH 1.06 67.00 -0.03 1.54 4.43 2.64 4.06 938,046.40 0.00 MWC 15.04 27.47 0.44 0.75 13.12 1.87 1.31 2,674,040.00 0.20 0.07 GLO -1.88 26.32 -0.19 0.31 20.83 5.78 62.51 88,292.99 0.36 TEL 2.20 15.49 -0.05 31.13 17.00 4.94 92.04 165,280.30 0.30 0.32 AP 41.07 50.67 0.75 0.84 0.00 3.43 0.87 2,783,387.00 0.20 0.00 Utilities 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Aboitiz Power Corporation Manila Electric Company First Philippine Holdings Corporation Manila Water Company, Inc. 12/30/2011 30 247 62 19 MAX 39 314 114 37 MIN 3 39 15 9 LAST PRICE 36 314 106 37
  • 12. Telcommunication 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Globe Telecom, Inc. Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 12/30/2011 1133 2453.28 MAX 1499.79 2867.78 MIN 710 1772.77 LAST PRICE 1205 2792 Other Services 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - Aboitiz Power First Philippine Holdings Manila Water Company, Philippine Long Distance Manila Electric Company Globe Telecom, Inc. Corporation Corporation Inc. Telephone Company 12/30/2011 3.39 5.51 4.12 2.97 7.03 7.81 MAX 3.65 5.75 4.73 3.61 7.31 7.96 MIN 1.22 3.65 2.72 2.21 6.57 7.48 LAST PRICE 3.58 5.75 4.66 3.61 7.09 7.93
  • 13. Properties FUNDAMENTALS RISK-RETURN STATS ALLOCATION Sharpe Div. EPS P/E Ave volume Optimizer Mean Std. Var Ratio Yield RLC 2.19 62.39 -0.01 0.29 20.44 35.71 3,288,723.00 0.20 0.00 ALI 8.79 44.52 0.13 0.17 43.28 0.00 10,445,860.00 0.30 0.00 SMPH 10.78 25.52 0.30 0.15 30.72 29.36 14,866,540.00 0.20 0.80 MEG -7.26 71.97 -0.14 0.07 12.72 0.00 74,760,880.00 0.00 CPG 31.44 89.60 0.32 0.05 5.35 61.22 14,439,860.00 0.30 0.20 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - (1.00) (2.00) (3.00) Robinsons Land Century Properties Ayala Land, Inc. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. Megaworld Corporation Corporation Group, Inc. 12/30/2011 2.42 2.72 2.36 0.53 0.66 MAX 3.19 3.47 2.94 6.94 1.66 MIN 1.40 1.72 1.72 (0.62) (2.04) LAST PRICE 3.19 3.39 2.90 6.94 1.66
  • 14. Final Picks Risk/return stats (using rolling 12-mo returns for the period Jan 2007 - Feb 2013) Expected FUND SIZE: Volatility Sharpe ratio return 100,000,000.00 Financials Security Bank Corporation 21.10 50.68 0.36 Operating expense: Bank of the Philippine Islands 8.81 23.19 0.25 500,000.00 Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 9.61 44.59 0.15 BDO Unibank, Inc. 4.38 41.18 0.03 Management fee: Holding firms 1,000,000.00 JG Summit Holdings, Inc. 21.66 81.65 0.23 Alliance Global Group, Inc. 18.24 63.89 0.24 Investment in T-bills: DMCI Holdings, Inc. 36.33 74.87 0.45 10,000,000.00 SM Investments Corporation 14.90 34.94 0.34 TOTAL Available for EQUITY Metro Pacific Investments Corporation 0.33 31.57 (0.08) investment: Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. 37.46 52.09 0.66 Mining & Oil 88,500,000.00 Semirara Mining Corporation 39.90 57.08 0.65 Total cost of equity allocation: Consumer Jollibee Foods Corporation 14.86 23.11 0.51 88,449,523.40 RFM Corporation 31.14 78.10 0.36 Excess cash: Puregold Price Club, Inc. 70.65 12.11 5.59 San Miguel Pure Foods Company, Inc. 81.30 204.79 0.38 50,476.60 Utilities, telco & other services Manila Electric Company 23.55 47.96 0.43 Manila Water Company, Inc. 15.04 27.47 0.44 Portfolio Expected Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 2.20 15.49 (0.05) 24.66 Aboitiz Power Corporation 41.07 50.67 0.75 return Property Portfolio Volatility 54.01 Robinsons Land Corporation 2.19 62.39 (0.01) Sharpe ratio 0.406 Ayala Land, Inc. 8.79 44.52 0.13 SM Prime Holdings, Inc. 10.78 25.52 0.30 Century Properties Group, Inc. 31.44 89.60 0.32
  • 15. Final Picks SECB BPI MBT BDO JGS AGI DMC SM p MPI SCC JFC RFM MER MWC TEL AP p RLC ALI SMPH CPG Security Bank Corporation 1.00 Bank of the Philippine Islands 0.79 1.00 Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 0.91 0.83 1.00 BDO Unibank, Inc. 0.95 0.81 0.93 1.00 JG Summit Holdings, Inc. 0.91 0.66 0.90 0.93 1.00 Alliance Global Group, Inc. 0.86 0.77 0.91 0.90 0.91 1.00 DMCI Holdings, Inc. 0.85 0.66 0.90 0.89 0.93 0.94 1.00 SM Investments Corporation 0.86 0.88 0.96 0.90 0.84 0.89 0.88 1.00 Metro Pacific Investments Corporation 0.35 0.62 0.39 0.41 0.30 0.46 0.40 0.56 1.00 Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. 0.64 0.49 0.73 0.67 0.82 0.79 0.78 0.63 0.10 Semirara Mining Corporation 0.49 0.19 0.40 0.56 0.70 0.60 0.62 0.33 0.00 1.00 Jollibee Foods Corporation 0.73 0.71 0.85 0.80 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.86 0.39 0.45 1.00 RFM Corporation 0.79 0.79 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.76 0.85 0.40 0.39 0.74 1.00 Manila Electric Company 0.32 0.34 0.48 0.36 0.33 0.50 0.55 0.54 0.41 (0.08) 0.45 0.25 1.00 Manila Water Company, Inc. 0.58 0.46 0.37 0.64 0.50 0.46 0.40 0.39 0.30 0.45 0.22 0.47 (0.04) 1.00 Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 0.73 0.52 0.60 0.73 0.61 0.57 0.60 0.60 0.36 0.29 0.44 0.51 0.36 0.75 1.00 Robinsons Land Corporation 0.87 0.77 0.93 0.88 0.81 0.84 0.84 0.91 0.39 0.24 0.73 0.83 0.57 0.46 0.71 0.61 1.00 Ayala Land, Inc. 0.92 0.82 0.96 0.95 0.89 0.90 0.88 0.94 0.41 0.41 0.77 0.89 0.45 0.55 0.71 0.69 0.96 1.00 SM Prime Holdings, Inc. 0.74 0.82 0.79 0.75 0.57 0.62 0.63 0.84 0.53 (0.02) 0.70 0.70 0.51 0.37 0.62 0.24 0.82 0.81 1.00 Century Properties Group, Inc. 0.41 0.23 0.28 0.35 0.26 0.25 0.31 0.26 0.19 0.08 0.19 (0.05) 0.25 0.17 0.32 0.01 0.27 0.28 0.37 1.00 *insufficient data points for Puregold, San Miguel Purefoods, Aboitiz Equity Ventures
  • 16. Final Picks TAA FUND ALLOCATION Fund allocation Last price Cost Sector Equity Wt (PhP mio) (PhP/sh) # of shares* (PhP mio) Financials 17% 15.00 Security Bank Corporation 20% 3.4% 3.01 179.2 16,791 3.01 Bank of the Philippine Islands 50% 8.4% 7.47 105.7 70,699 7.47 Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company 15% 2.6% 2.26 112.7 20,024 2.26 BDO Unibank, Inc. 15% 2.6% 2.26 87.9 25,674 2.26 Holding firms 30% 26.55 JG Summit Holdings, Inc. 25% 7.5% 6.64 40.95 162,088 6.64 Alliance Global Group, Inc. 10% 3.0% 2.66 19.74 134,498 2.65 DMCI Holdings, Inc. 20% 6.0% 5.31 53.9 98,516 5.31 SM Investments Corporation 5% 1.5% 1.33 1033 1,285 1.33 Metro Pacific Investments Corporation 10% 3.0% 2.66 5.28 502,841 2.66 Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. 30% 9.0% 7.97 54.5 146,147 7.97 Mining & Oil 2% 1.77 Semirara Mining Corporation 100% 2.0% 1.77 261 6,782 1.77 Consumer 16% 14.16 Jollibee Foods Corporation 30% 4.8% 4.25 115 36,939 4.25 RFM Corporation 20% 3.2% 2.83 4.77 593,711 2.83 Puregold Price Club, Inc. 20% 3.2% 2.83 38.65 73,273 2.83 San Miguel Pure Foods Company, Inc. 30% 4.8% 4.25 271.4 15,652 4.25 Utilities, telco & other services 25% 22.13 Manila Electric Company 30% 7.5% 6.64 314 21,139 6.64 Manila Water Company, Inc. 20% 5.0% 4.43 36.8 120,245 4.43 Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company 30% 7.5% 6.64 2792 2,377 6.64 Aboitiz Power Corporation 20% 5.0% 4.43 36 122,917 4.43 Property 10% 8.85 Robinsons Land Corporation 20% 2.0% 1.77 24.3 72,840 1.77 Ayala Land, Inc. 30% 3.0% 2.66 29.8 89,094 2.66 SM Prime Holdings, Inc. 20% 2.0% 1.77 18.2 97,253 1.77 Century Properties Group, Inc. 30% 3.0% 2.66 5.28 502,841 2.66 Total 100% 100% 88.45 88.45