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  และคอมพวเตอร กบการรบมอภาวะ
         โลกรอนของประเทศไทย




 นเรศ ด#ารงชย (nares@sti.or.th)
 APEC Center for Technology Foresight, STI
Slides available at:
http://www.slideshare.net/naresdam
Global Strategic Trends




        Source: Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)
Global map of science by discipline




           The Scientific Century: Securing our Future Prosperity, The Royal Society (2010)

                   N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
http://www.neweconomics.org/




      N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
What did people presume 50 years ago?




           Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
What do we presume today?




          Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
What should we be presuming
about 50 years time?




          Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
Living and working in perpetual motion




‘Always on’ culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm and
sustainable energy forms are widely adopted.


                          Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
The Powermat Portable is intended for travelers. Place any device on the mat, and it
uses induction to deliver a wireless charge; the power flows to small receivers that can
be fitted to most handheld gadgets. The Powermat is powered by an AC adapter, but a
built-in lithium-ion battery allows charging when you can't find a wall socket.




                                                    Availability: Fall 2010
                                                    Source: www.powermat.com
Living and working in an urban colony




Building-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all new
buildings, with photovoltaic skins a standard feature.


                         Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
Source: Monocle, issue 29, volume 03 (Dec09 - Jan10)
Living and working with good intentions




Consumption of energy is closely monitored, ultra-energy-efficient vehicles are
connected into an integrated traffic management system.


                         Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
Santa Monica Civic Center parking structure




                    Source: http://www.greendiary.com/, posted Nov09
Zayan Masood, 11 yrs old, Bangladesh
                                 N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
http://theglobalcommonsproject.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/the-sharp-edge-of-climate-change/
What is the Rationale?

    To link global science, technology, and policy
    communities to government or local initiatives to
    combat climate change issues.
       – A new sense of purpose for global science,
          technology, and innovation due to
          environmental limits.

    To envision and describe the future society where a
    low-carbon economy and adaptive lifestyle become
    the principle drivers governing trade and development.



                         N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Low Carbon Society in Practice:
          Thailand




            N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Real-Time Delphi Survey (web-based)


    15 June – 30 August 2009

    Anonymity

    Iterative (roundless) –max. 4 rounds

    Controlled feedback

    Topics
     
        Climate change & its impacts
     
        Migration, rural life & natural resources
     
        Society/health
     
        Trade of goods & service
     
        Housing & construction/urban life/transportation


                           N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Chronology of Future Events
2030      Global and regional earth
        system modeling (integrated
                                            Skilled immigration applicant
                                                                                 Consumers are willing to pay
                                                                                 more for low carbon footprint
                                                                                                                         Economies that were
                                                                                                                       previously dominated by
                                                                                                                                                           Energy efficiency of home and
                                                                                                                                                           office appliances increases by
                                          increase and are easily accepted
                                                                                            products                  manufacturing industries                          50%.
        assessment model) provides
              highly accurate                                                                                            /sectors have moved
                                                                                                                         dramatically towards             Majority of trips in daily life will
                                          Ecotourism becomes dominant              Technologies significantly
                                                                                                                      knowledge-based services               be through efficient public
                                              in the tourism industry           improve the healthcare system
       Food scarcity occurs as a result                                                                                                                    transportation as opposed to
                                                                                  to cope with new infectious
         of a significant shift in land                                                                              A low carbon related SR,ISO                   personal mode
                                                                                diseases stimulated from global
        allocation from food crop to      Coastal ecosystem management                      warming                  Standard is considered the
                 energy crop                 becomes widespread and                                                   norm of business practice            20% of electricity is generated
                                              economically beneficial                                                                                        by decentralized sources
         Effective mechanisms are                                                                                   Carbon accounting becomes
         devised to cope with the                                               Technological process changes           mandatory globally
          direct impact of climate           New generations of well-            toward producing food locally
               related events              educated people choose new           to serve societal demand while
                                                                                   reducing carbon emission        Environmentally friendly goods
                                               knowledge-intensive,
                                                                                                                   is now the dominant consumer
                                            agriculture-based industries
                                                                                                                      goods in the global market
                                             that are more sustainable
                                                                               Algae technology capable of
                                          Water scarcity becomes a cause                                            Global IT network will reduce
                                                                                producing fuel (H2, oil, or
                                                      of War                                                        the traveling of people to the      Air freight shipments are down
                                                                             ethanol) becomes commercially                    1990 level                          to 1990 level
                                                                                       wide-spread



2040    Carbon capture and storage
        (CCS) is effectively and fully
                                              High demand on carbon             A global regulatory framework        Political instability and inter-         Most existing commercial
                                           deduction creates sustainable       of low carbon is totally accepted                                           buildings are retrofitted to save
                implemented                 income from the poor rural                                                  regional conflicts due to
                                                                                                                   climate change impacts lead to           50% of energy use on average
                                            people who plant trees and
                                                   energy crops                                                     little interaction between the
        Technology and management                                                                                  major economic co-operations
       enable forest plantations to act                                                                                                                        Personal transportation,
           as the main carbon sink                                           Shift of farming land to higher                                                     supplementing mass
                                              Migration of people from       altitude and colder areas cause                                                  transportation, will mainly
                                                                                                                      It is realized that emission
                                             coastal area towards inland     major destruction of the most                                                   consist of shared, loaned or
                                                                                                                    trading has had little effect on
                                            induces major conflicts over          important carbon sink                                                             rents vehicles
                                                                                                                   reducing the global green house
                                                 land and resources
                                                                                                                              gas emission



2050   Anthropogenic greenhouse gas
       emissions are stabilized at 1990
                                                                                                                                                              Breakthroughs in battery
                                                                                                                                                              storage technology make
                    level                                                                                                                                      obsolete all other fuels
                                                                                                                                                                    including H2



Beyond 2050                                                                                                                                                Conventional fuels disappear
                                                                                                                                                          completely from transportation
                                                                                                                                                                      sector
•   Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact
    – Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about the
      technologies like carbon capture and storage and earth system modeling as well as the
      effectiveness of international agreements.
•   Section 2: Migration, Rural Life, and Natural Resources
    – Rising sea level will force farmers to shift to higher attitude despite coastal ecosystem
      management. Impacts of ecotourism and skilled immigration are only moderate. Water
      scarcity of course is a major concern. There are conflicting views whether well-educated
      people will go farming and whether rural poor can gain benefits planting trees and
      energy crops.
•   Section 3: Society / Health
    – Experts were optimistic that technologies can improve healthcare system. The low
      carbon concept is spreading and some consumers are willing to pay more for green
      product.
•   Section 4: Trade of Goods and Services
    – Participated experts generally are positive regarding movements towards green trade
      and services despite some doubts about the effectiveness of implementation.
•   Section 5: Housing and Construction / Urban Life /
    Transportation
    – Experts have good faith in technologies to boost energy efficiency, public
      transportation, and renewable energy though conventional fuel will not disappear so
      quickly.


                                      N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Some lessons learnt from scenarios

    Low-carbon society could be reachable within our
    lifetime (at least for some of us).

    Community networking is the key. Community-driven
    initiatives drive the changes the world requires in
    pursuit of the low-carbon development path.

    Emergence of computerized farming and other
    technological advances.

    Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces
    USD as the global currency.



                        N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
http://www.lcs2050.com/




       N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight

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Computer Electronics For Climate Change

  • 1. บทบาทของเทคโนโลยอเลกทรอนกส และคอมพวเตอร กบการรบมอภาวะ โลกรอนของประเทศไทย นเรศ ด#ารงชย (nares@sti.or.th) APEC Center for Technology Foresight, STI
  • 3. Global Strategic Trends Source: Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)
  • 4. Global map of science by discipline The Scientific Century: Securing our Future Prosperity, The Royal Society (2010) N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 5. http://www.neweconomics.org/ N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 6. What did people presume 50 years ago? Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  • 7. What do we presume today? Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  • 8. What should we be presuming about 50 years time? Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  • 9. Living and working in perpetual motion ‘Always on’ culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm and sustainable energy forms are widely adopted. Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  • 10. The Powermat Portable is intended for travelers. Place any device on the mat, and it uses induction to deliver a wireless charge; the power flows to small receivers that can be fitted to most handheld gadgets. The Powermat is powered by an AC adapter, but a built-in lithium-ion battery allows charging when you can't find a wall socket. Availability: Fall 2010 Source: www.powermat.com
  • 11. Living and working in an urban colony Building-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all new buildings, with photovoltaic skins a standard feature. Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  • 12. Source: Monocle, issue 29, volume 03 (Dec09 - Jan10)
  • 13. Living and working with good intentions Consumption of energy is closely monitored, ultra-energy-efficient vehicles are connected into an integrated traffic management system. Source: UK Foresight Intelligent Instrastructure Project, http://www.foresight.gov.uk/
  • 14. Santa Monica Civic Center parking structure Source: http://www.greendiary.com/, posted Nov09
  • 15. Zayan Masood, 11 yrs old, Bangladesh N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight http://theglobalcommonsproject.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/the-sharp-edge-of-climate-change/
  • 16. What is the Rationale?  To link global science, technology, and policy communities to government or local initiatives to combat climate change issues. – A new sense of purpose for global science, technology, and innovation due to environmental limits.  To envision and describe the future society where a low-carbon economy and adaptive lifestyle become the principle drivers governing trade and development. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 17. Low Carbon Society in Practice: Thailand N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 18. Real-Time Delphi Survey (web-based)  15 June – 30 August 2009  Anonymity  Iterative (roundless) –max. 4 rounds  Controlled feedback  Topics  Climate change & its impacts  Migration, rural life & natural resources  Society/health  Trade of goods & service  Housing & construction/urban life/transportation N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 19. Chronology of Future Events 2030 Global and regional earth system modeling (integrated Skilled immigration applicant Consumers are willing to pay more for low carbon footprint Economies that were previously dominated by Energy efficiency of home and office appliances increases by increase and are easily accepted products manufacturing industries 50%. assessment model) provides highly accurate /sectors have moved dramatically towards Majority of trips in daily life will Ecotourism becomes dominant Technologies significantly knowledge-based services be through efficient public in the tourism industry improve the healthcare system Food scarcity occurs as a result transportation as opposed to to cope with new infectious of a significant shift in land A low carbon related SR,ISO personal mode diseases stimulated from global allocation from food crop to Coastal ecosystem management warming Standard is considered the energy crop becomes widespread and norm of business practice 20% of electricity is generated economically beneficial by decentralized sources Effective mechanisms are Carbon accounting becomes devised to cope with the Technological process changes mandatory globally direct impact of climate New generations of well- toward producing food locally related events educated people choose new to serve societal demand while reducing carbon emission Environmentally friendly goods knowledge-intensive, is now the dominant consumer agriculture-based industries goods in the global market that are more sustainable Algae technology capable of Water scarcity becomes a cause Global IT network will reduce producing fuel (H2, oil, or of War the traveling of people to the Air freight shipments are down ethanol) becomes commercially 1990 level to 1990 level wide-spread 2040 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is effectively and fully High demand on carbon A global regulatory framework Political instability and inter- Most existing commercial deduction creates sustainable of low carbon is totally accepted buildings are retrofitted to save implemented income from the poor rural regional conflicts due to climate change impacts lead to 50% of energy use on average people who plant trees and energy crops little interaction between the Technology and management major economic co-operations enable forest plantations to act Personal transportation, as the main carbon sink Shift of farming land to higher supplementing mass Migration of people from altitude and colder areas cause transportation, will mainly It is realized that emission coastal area towards inland major destruction of the most consist of shared, loaned or trading has had little effect on induces major conflicts over important carbon sink rents vehicles reducing the global green house land and resources gas emission 2050 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized at 1990 Breakthroughs in battery storage technology make level obsolete all other fuels including H2 Beyond 2050 Conventional fuels disappear completely from transportation sector
  • 20. Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact – Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about the technologies like carbon capture and storage and earth system modeling as well as the effectiveness of international agreements. • Section 2: Migration, Rural Life, and Natural Resources – Rising sea level will force farmers to shift to higher attitude despite coastal ecosystem management. Impacts of ecotourism and skilled immigration are only moderate. Water scarcity of course is a major concern. There are conflicting views whether well-educated people will go farming and whether rural poor can gain benefits planting trees and energy crops. • Section 3: Society / Health – Experts were optimistic that technologies can improve healthcare system. The low carbon concept is spreading and some consumers are willing to pay more for green product. • Section 4: Trade of Goods and Services – Participated experts generally are positive regarding movements towards green trade and services despite some doubts about the effectiveness of implementation. • Section 5: Housing and Construction / Urban Life / Transportation – Experts have good faith in technologies to boost energy efficiency, public transportation, and renewable energy though conventional fuel will not disappear so quickly. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 21. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 22. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 23. Some lessons learnt from scenarios  Low-carbon society could be reachable within our lifetime (at least for some of us).  Community networking is the key. Community-driven initiatives drive the changes the world requires in pursuit of the low-carbon development path.  Emergence of computerized farming and other technological advances.  Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces USD as the global currency. N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight
  • 24. http://www.lcs2050.com/ N. Damrongchai ©2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight