4. Mission of APEC CTF
• RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies
– 7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact
area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy
– Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC
– Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM
• CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors
• TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year)
●
Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies
Towards “Best Practice” in Technology Foresight
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 4
5. Our Customers
●
Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG
Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research
and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic
Company Limited, Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand, Department of
Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy
Technology Development, Petroleum Institute of
Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, มหาว'ทยาลยเกษตรศาสตร,
ส)านกงานเลขาธ'การรฐสภา, TPA, SIRIM,
NISTPASS, and many others.
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 5
6. Modes of Strategic Policy Learning
Current context:
Policy analysis,
structure and dynamics
Past experience: Policy Future options:
Impact analysis, development Foresight etc.
History etc.
Parallell activities:
Intelligent benchmarking etc.
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center KenTechnology Foresight
(partly based on for Guy, 2006) 6
7. The Foundations of Foresight
Futures
Studies
Foresight
Strategic Policy
Planning Development
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 7
Source: APEC Center for Technology Foresight
9. The Johari Window
Strategic planning
trends KNOWN UNKNOWN environment
KNOWNS KNOWNS scanning
KNOWN UNKNOWN imagination
Knowledge UNKNOWNS
management
UNKNOWNS
Foresight
10. The generic foresight process
framework
inputs Strategic intelligence scanning, Delphi
Emerging issues/trends analysis
analysis
Foresight
interpretation Systems thinking, Causal Layered Analysis
prospection Scenarios, visioning, backcasts, roadmaps
outputs Reports, presentations, workshops, multimedia
Strategy development & strategic
planning: individual, workgroup,
strategy
organisation, society, etc.
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 10
Source: Voros (2003)
11. Global Strategic Trends
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 11
Source: Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)
15. what might happen – need
to understand this
your vision – need to create this
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 15
16. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
problem Litany: official public description of issue
causes
Social Science Analysis: short-term
Systemic (social, historical facts uncovered. Solution values
economic, cultural) with structures
Discourse Analysis: worldview solution
Worldviews, ideologies
often in consciousness transformation
Myths-metaphors Myth/Metaphor Analysis: solution
can rarely be rationally designed
Source: Sohail Inayatullah (1998)
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 16
17. • “Causal layered analysis is based on the
assumption that the way in which one
frames a problem changes the policy
solution and the actors responsible for
creating transformation.”
- Sohail Inayatullah
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 17
18. Example of CLA
• Litany… Bangkok traffic, pollution, waiting time
(Solution: hire consultant, build more roads, Actors:
contractors, government)
• Causes… urbanization, rapid development, economic
growth (Solution: telecommuting or use mobile phones,
Actors: corporations, int’l agencies)
• Worldview… Industrialism, Big City Outlook,
Colonialism (Solution: transform development model,
deep decentralization, focus on agriculture, Actors:
public intellectuals, social movements)
• Myth… West is best, Bigger is Better (Solution: focus
on indigenous metaphors, on pre-modern modes of
knowing, Actors: mystics, fringe artists)
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 18
Source: UNESCO/World Futures Studies Federation workshop in Thailand (1993)
21. (Expert Panel)
Expert A x
anonymity
Expert B
Foresight Committee
Foresight Committee
answer answer
moderator
feedback feedback
22. Consensus through Delphi
Planning of social services for the elderly - seeking
opinions of community- and hospital-based doctors about
seriousness and prevalence of health problems
From Delphi Techniques and the Planning of Social Services - The Prevention of
Dependency Among the Old (Giovanni Bertin)
23. Delphi Applications
Within foresight studies, Delphi is usually used to
tap the wisdom of a group, in order to:
• predict when S&T developments will occur
• assess policy options
• encourage decisions
consensus
conformity
convergence
24. Example of prediction:
“When will the first
hydrogen-powered car hit
the market in your
country?”
(Practical Use)
25. One of the Original Delphi Studies
(Report on a Long-Range Forecast by
Gordon and Helmer)
Published in 1964
Contained forecasts of scientific
and technological breakthroughs
through 2000 and beyond
82 panelists who contributed
included Isaac Asimov and Arthur
Clarke
26. “On
Targets”…
economically useful desalination
of sea water
oral contraceptives
advent of ultra light materials
automated language translation
transplanting organs …and “Big Misses”
more reliable weather forecasts
centralized data banks
artificial organs
X Ray lasers controlled thermo nuclear power
psychotropic drugs biochemical general immunization
self replicating molecules limited weather control
synthetic protein world population by 2000 less than
feasibility of control over 6 billion
hereditary defects manned landing on Mars
27. Realization of Past Forecasts of the Japanese
Delphi conducted every five years after 1970
In 1996, the Sixth survey assessed the first and second surveys
Realized Partially Unrealized
realized
First 26% 38% 36%
survey
Second 21% 42% 37%
survey
31. Policy Delphi
The same 3 key features apply:
anonymity / iteration / controlled feedback
Example: “Government should bear the burden of
health care across the population by
providing 100% financial support to ensure
universal and equitable access to services.”
Desirability Feasibility Importance
assessment assessment assessment
very desirable 1 definitely 1 very important 1
desirable 2 possibly 2 important 2
undesirable 3 probably not 3 not very important
4 3
very undesirable definitely not 4 completely_ 4
_unimportant
42. RISK
“Effect of uncertainty on
objectives”
ISO 31000:2009
- Perception that something could happen.
- Likelihood of something happening.
- Consequences if it does happen.
42
SIG 42
47. Evolution of technology roadmapping
Cambridge Fast-start
1997
1970 1980 1990 2000 Generalisation
2010
Customisation
Strategic
planning
Motorola develops
technology
roadmapping Take up in Semiconductor
approach electronics Technology Roadmap Roadmapping
sector, approach
defence Take up in supports
Co-evolution and other sectors integrated
aerospace - companies strategic
- consortia planning
- government
Forecasting
Policy Foresight
Science fiction Futures & Scenario planning
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 47
48. PRESENT
VISION
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 48
daho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/factsheet.pdf
49. A Technology Roadmap Links the future to
present, and resources to market/applications
Time
Market M1 M2
P1 P2 P3
Product
How can Where do
P4
Where are
T1 T2
Technology we get we want
we now? T3 T4
R&D RD 1 RD 2 there? RD 4 to go?
RD 6
programmes RD 3 RD 5
Capital investment / finance
Resources Supply chain
Staff / skills
Source: Centre for Technology Management, University of Cambridge
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 49
50. Foresight Vehicle technology
roadmap: architecture
+5 years +10 years +15 years +20 years
Now Vision
Market / S Time
T
Industry E
E Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
P
drivers I
Performanc
Evolution of required and desirable functional
e measures performance of road transport systems of the future
and targets
Technical Required and desired technological
Group areas response, including research requirements
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 50
51. Foresight Vehicle TRM: process
Engine and powertrain (E&PT)
Hybrid, electric and alternatively
Market Road fuelled vehicles (HEV)
and transport
Planning industry system Advanced software, sensors, Reporting
Consultation electronics and telematics (ASSET) Synthesis
(Oct ‘01) trends performance (Sept ‘02)
and measures
drivers and targets Advanced structures
and materials (FASMAT)
Design and manufacturing
Processes (DMaP)
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information
• 10 month duration • More than 130 participants
• 10 workshops • More than 60 organisations
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 51
52. Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision
80-85% of Growth in personal mobility (70% of Individual 2010: Passenger 2015: 150% 2031: 57% increase Cheap,
journeys by car drivers use car for leisure day trips ‘time numbers through increase in in UK road traffic, safe,
39,40,103
75% of all every week or month; 50% expect to budget’ for UK airports international compared to 1996 reliable,
journeys be making more by 2020) 42 travel increase by 50% air traffic; 80,103
clean
are under 5 remains 30
100% 2031: 40% convenient
Journey times increasing (70% 2010: 20-50% 2012: increase in bus /
miles constant ? increase in ,
longer by 2016 in peak travel increase in Bicycle coach vehicle
and 45% are domestic, comfortabl
periods) 67 Increasing European road journeys miles, compared
Nearly one third
less than 2 miles Vehicles sold increasingly as compared to e
of UK complexity of passenger and double 31 1995 1 to 1996 1 transport
31 ‘lifestyle’ choices ? 2022: 70%
lives ? haulage traffic 13,80 Frustration with congestion and for all
households do
Increasing female vehicle purchase / public transport continues ? increase in
not have a car 2010: 10%
ownership (women are more likely to (journey time no longer journey times in
Many different
(13 million Trend towards increase in bus
describe their cars as ‘stylish’, ‘sporty’ predictable) many UK cities
stakeholder
people) 31 career passenger
or ‘fun’) 42 1996 80
groups, with ‘downsizing’ journeys 30 2030:
Balance Legal issues and New working /
different needs People and jobs for improved 2010: 50% population in
between global, frameworks ? living patterns
from transport have moved out lifestyle ? increase in rail the UK is
national and
system of the city and passenger miles Social forecast to
UK car-centric local Shift from car
town centres 103 solutions ?
30 attitudes increase by
culture Increasing ownership to car
Increasing proportion of women towards 3.3%, to 61
leisure time access ?
1999: UK in paid employment (9.9 million 39,40
road million 1,39,40,67,
‘leads’ world in in 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) Increased transport after which it
Increasing 2010: 25% of UK 2015: 400 million and the
vehicle theft 73
More than half of drivers exceed use of car will decline to
(twice global mobile workforce people live in environment
speed limits on motorways, dual pools ? 57 million by
working teleworking at 2030:73 27%
average at carriageways and residential roads megacities of more ? 2050 22-
2.5%); cost of least two days than 10 million of UK population
66
vehicle-related More residential traffic calming per week 57 inhabitants 57 over retirement
crime £6bn 46,47 schemes and pedestrianisation of age, compared
town centres Demand to 2016: 4 million (25%) to 19% in 1998;
2000: Shift in social Younger
increase in housing (80% pension costs
3,500 road traffic reduce attitudes to generation
Between 8 and deaths and single-person), increasing rise from 4.5-
deaths and 40,000 speeding more IT-literate
20% of car- demand for travel 1,67 5.5% of GDP
serious injuries in injuries on 1,25,39,40
UK, at an owning roads
2007: working at home becoming Continued 2016: 25% increase in 2021:
estimated cost of households
common (currently more than growth of number of UK households, Households in
£13.3bn (40,000 experience
Increasing 66% of European organisations cities and 80% of growth due to single South-east
deaths and 1.7 vehicle-related
concern about with more than 500 employees towns, person households; 1.3% forecast to grow
million injuries in crime each
crime, security already practice teleworking) mainly in rural land use predicted to by 19% on 2001
EU, representing a year,
depending on and safety Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center
28,39,40
South East for Technology Foresight 41
change to urban land use levels 52
cost of 2% of GDP) 39,40
8,37,39,40 region 41
Key: Mobility & congestion Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics Health, safety &
53. Example summary roadmap content:
Social performance measures & targets
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Aim for 2005: 70% user 2010: 80% user 2020: 85%
‘equitabl satisfaction satisfaction with user
e’ with all all transport satisfaction
Vehicle
mobility transport modes with all adaptability
(same modes transport
price for (measure of modes
2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5 Urban
Society
same ‘convenience’)
journey - Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5 people
for all minutes transport
groups - Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes;
in Window glass: 2 minutes
society) Effective
2005: Road 2010: Road 2020: Road traffic noise
traffic noise traffic noise reduced by 6dBA;
selling and
reduced by reduced by Homologated noise reduction customer
3dBA from 1998 4dBA of 4dBA and 8dBA for light and support
levels heavy vehicles, respectively
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 53
54. 2005
Transportation 2010 2020 2030
LIQUID FUELS (conventional oil GAS FUELS
bitumen and heavy oil)
Biofuels GTL CG
Hydrogen
OIL NG BIOMASS
Stationary
Electricity
And Electricity and Heat from renewable and gas fuels
Heat
LNG
Coal Coal bed methane
Gasification
Renewable and Alternate Gas Hydrates
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 54
55. ‘First-cut’ roadmap
• In groups of two, generate 2-3 post-it notes for each broad layer (5 minutes)
• Consider all layers & timeframes of roadmap
… history, current plans, events, external actions,
future possibilities, issues, vision
• Round table, each group place a post-it on chart, and share with group
(limit discussion to points of clarification)… 2 rounds
• Generate as many additional post-it notes as possible and
place on roadmap (‘parallel’ activity) - fill ‘white space’
• Identify and discuss key strategic issues
(‘arrow’ post-it notes)
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 55
63. Technology Promotion Association (Thailand-Japan)
• Established in 1973 by a group of alumni from Japan
• Trained over 350,000 persons in industrial technology
• Over 100,000 persons in languages
• Over 1,000 persons in enterprise diagnosis
• Published over 830 titles and sold
over 4.5 million copies
• Services over 2,000 companies
a year
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 63
64. Three Scenarios
TPA Corp.
Concentrate on profit making activities, RBM, CEO, less
synergy
Value of Non-Profit Organization (NPO)
From association to foundation, new dimension for
learning, synergy and teamwork, Prime Minister’s Price
in International Cooperation for NPO
New Synergy
Competition from universities, synergy spear-headed by
consultancy, practical solution provider, expansion of
service to provinces, closer relationship with China
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 64
65. Two Policy Issues
• Can TPA survive if Japan cuts off its
financial support?
• Should TPA become a private company
since some of its operations are making
profit?
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 65
66. Changes in Three Years
• Library@Company: TPA library
management software in 100
companies
• E-commerce: book selling and
training management
• HRM Package with e-learning:
implemented
• Marketing programme: expand
customer base, survey corporate
image
• http://km.tpa.or.th: for internal
knowledge sharing
• BELIEF as corporate identity
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 66
67. Surprises
• Thailand-Japan Institute of Technology: with
an investment of US$ 10 million. The Institute
took in the first batch of bachelor and master
students in 2007
• E-learning: did not take off
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 67
68. Discussions
Why TPA has been successful in implementing
the outcomes of foresight?
• Its leaders recognised the time for change
• Strong commitment in the foresight workshops
• BSC pointed out needs to enhance
partnerships, improve marketing, and utilise IT
for productivity
• TPA staff does not wait to get on with the
reforms
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 68
69. ภาพอนาคตประเทศไทย
ในอก 10 ปขางหนา
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 69
70. นาพรกปลาท ตมยากงนาโขง เกาเหลาไม!งอก
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 70