Lcs for green ict

The Futures of
Low-Carbon
Society: An Asia
Pacific Vision
Beyond 2050

13 September 2011
Green ICT toward Low-Carbon society
Bangkok, Thailand

Dr. Nares Damrongchai, APEC Center for Technology Foresight 1

“Confidence is what you have
before you understand the
problem”
--- Woody Allen

Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society

What did people presume 50 years ago?


What do we presume today?


What should we be presuming
about 50 years time?


Living and working in perpetual motion

‘Alwayson’ culture with lots of traffic, but low-emission is the norm and
sustainable energy forms are widely adopted.

Living and working in an urban colony

Building-integrated energy generation systems are a standard feature of all new
buildings, with photovoltaic skins a standard feature.

Living and working with good intentions

Consumption
Nares Damrongchai of energy isofclosely monitored, ultra-energy-efficient vehicles are
Futures Low Carbon Society
connected into an integrated traffic management system.

Santa Monica Civic Center parking structure


Urban Farm: Eco Office in Tokyo

Futures of Low Carbon Society
14

“Low Carbon” is the only
way to the future


APEC Center for Technology Foresight

Established in 1998 under Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC)
 Now part of STI, Thailand

Nares Damrongchai @APEC 17
Center for Technology Foresight

APEC Member Economies

APEC Official Observers
• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat
• Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC)
Center forForum (PIF) Foresight
• Pacific Islands Technology © 2008 APEC Secretariat

Mission of APEC CTF

•RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies
–7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area
such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy
–Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC
–Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM
•CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors
•TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year)
●Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies

Towards “Best Practice” in Technology Foresight

Our Customers
●Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG
Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research
and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic
Company Limited, Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand, Department of
Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy
Technology Development, Petroleum Institute
of Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, Kasetsart University,
Parliamentary Office, TPA, SIRIM, NISTPASS, and
many others.


The Foundations of Foresight

Futures
Studies

Foresight

Strategic Policy
Planning Development

Nares Damrongchai, APEC Center
for Technology Foresight ©2008

The generic foresight process framework

inputs Strategic intelligence scanning, Delphi

analysis Emerging issues/trends analysis
Foresight

interpretation Systems thinking, Causal Layered Analysis
prospection Scenarios, visioning, backcasts, roadmaps

outputs Reports, presentations, workshops, multimedia

Strategy development & strategic planning:
strategy individual, workgroup, organisation, society,
etc.
Source: Voros (2003)

Scenario A

Expected

Today Possible
and
Plausible
futures
early
weak
signals of Preferred
change

Scenario B

Time

Source: Bezold and23Hancock 1993,
Nares Damrongchai @APEC

What's the difference?


The Johari Window
Strategic planning

trends KNOWN UNKNOWN environment
KNOWNS KNOWNS scanning

KNOWN UNKNOWN imagination
Knowledge UNKNOWNS
management
UNKNOWNS

Nares Damrongchai @APEC Foresight

What is the Rationale?
 To link global science, technology, and policy
communities to government or local initiatives to
combat climate change issues.
– A new sense of purpose for global science,
technology, and innovation due to environmental
limits.
 To envision and describe the future society where a low-
carbon economy and adaptive lifestyle become the
principle drivers governing trade and development.


Q: What could the “divergent outcome”
driven by climate change be like?
A: Low carbon societies with multiple
dimensions.
Q: But what will they look like in 2050?
A: We don't know yet, but certainly not just
about reducing emission anymore.

Process Flow of Scenario Planning

Trends Uncertainties Scenarios Logic Scenarios Communication
Identification Identification Design Writing Strategy

Nares Damrongchai @APEC

Nares Damrongchai @APEC 29 Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)

Climate change and its impact

Migration, rural
Trade of goods life, and natural
and services resources

Housing,
construction,
Society
urban life,
and health of Low Carbon Society
Nares Damrongchai Futures transportation

Delphi survey is simply…….
…..…a way to gather opinions
Structuring Group
wisdom
Communication

Distillation
Making Informed knowledge
Judgment information
Foresight
data

Group Communication
“Group Gain”
Groups can help to...
• spot errors of fact or logic
• resolve ambiguity

Groups provide...
• broad base of information
• greater creativity

Group Communication
“Group Loss”
Groups can be...
• hierarchical
• conservative

In a group, it can be difficult to...
- disagree with the majority
- express an „extreme‟ opinion
- question someone with higher status

Delphi‟s special features

1. Anonymity

2. (Re) iteration…..

3. ...With controlled feedback

x
(Expert Panel)

Expert A Expert B
anonymity

Foresight Committee

answer answer

moderator
feedback feedback

Delphi Applications
Within foresight studies, Delphi is usually used to
tap the wisdom of a group, in order to:
• predict when S&T developments will occur
• assess policy options
• encourage decisions

consensus
conformity
convergence

Example of prediction:
“When will the first
hydrogen-powered car hit
the market in your
country?”

(Practical Use)

Consensus through Delphi
Planning of social services for the elderly - seeking opinions
of community- and hospital-based doctors about
seriousness and prevalence of health problems

From Delphi Techniques and the Planning of Social
Services - The Prevention of Dependency Among the

Source: Manufacturing Visions (ManVis) A Pan-European Delphi study (

Policy Delphi
The same 3 key features apply:
anonymity / iteration / controlled feedback

Example: “Government should bear the burden of
health care across the population by providing 100%
financial support to ensure universal and equitable
access to services.”

Desirability Feasibility Importance
assessment assessment assessment
very desirable 1 definitely 1 very important 1
desirable 2 possibly 2 important 2
undesirable 3 probably not 3 not very important
very undesirable 4 definitely not 4 completely_ 3
_unimportant 4

Delphi logistics - some challenges

 Selecting and Recruiting the panel
 Scale and Response rates:

Japan „99 Korea „99 Austria „98 UK „95
1st round 86% 41% 46% 31%
2nd round 82% 79% 71% 41%
responses 3106 1444 1224 1022

Real-Time Delphi
RT Delphi uses the widespread availability of high-speed
internet and software technologies
Already used in
UN Millennium Project
APEC Low-Carbon Society Project
Universal Health Care Foresight Thailand
Global Risks Analysis Project etc.

45

http://bit.ly/cz2PXz


Real-Time Delphi Survey
• Purpose: to verify the global strategic trends
that drives the society up to 2050 and beyond.
– Feasibility
– Desirability
• Period: 15 June – 30 August, 2009
• Participated by international experts
– Anonymity
– Iterative (roundless) –max. 4 rounds
– Controlled feedback
47

Response rate and respondent profile

• 78 from 5 regions (Af, Am, As, Eu, Oc) invited
• 23-28 from 3 regions (28.2 - 35.9 %) answered
• Asia 21.8 - 26.9 %
• Thailand 7-9 out of 23-28
• Gender (male 15-19, female 6-9)

48

Example of converged opinions
Statement 15 : Water scarcity becomes a cause of war

Median = 3; IQR = 1; SD = 1.274
Median = 5; IQR = 0; SD = 0.929

Median = 1; IQR = 0.25; SD = 0.929 Median = 4; IQR = 1.25; SD = 1.032

Example of divergent opinions
Statement 13 : Algae technology capable of producing fuel (H2,
oil, or ethanol) becomes commercially wide-spread.

Median = 2; IQR = 2; SD = 1.014 Median = 4; IQR = 2; SD = 1.043

Median = 4; IQR = 2; SD = 1.100 Median = 3; IQR = 2; SD = 1.087


Level of agreements on feasibility and
desirability
Top 10 ranking Bottom 10 ranking

The Top Ranking Trends
 Most existing commercial buildings are retrofitted to save 50% of
energy use on average.
 Energy efficiency of home and office appliances increases by 50%.
 Shift of farming land to higher altitude and colder areas cause major
destruction of the most important carbon sink (forests).
 A low carbon related SR (Social Responsibility) ISO Standard is
considered the norm of any business practice.
 Global and regional earth system modeling (integrated assessment
model) provides highly accurate information.
 Migration of people from coastal area towards inland induces major
conflicts over land and resources
 20% of electricity is generated by decentralized sources.

Chronology of Future Events
Global and regional earth Consumers are willing to pay
2030 system modeling
Skilled immigration
applicant increase and are more for low carbon
Economies that were
previously dominated by
Energy efficiency of home
and office appliances
(integrated assessment easily accepted footprint products manufacturing industries increases by 50%.
model) provides highly /sectors have moved
accurate Ecotourism becomes Technologies significantly Majority of trips in daily life
improve the healthcare dramatically towards
dominant in the tourism will be through efficient
system to cope with new knowledge-based services
Food scarcity occurs as a industry public transportation as
result of a significant shift in infectious diseases A low carbon related SR,ISO opposed to personal mode
Coastal ecosystem stimulated from global
land allocation from food Standard is considered the
management becomes warming 20% of electricity is
crop to energy crop norm of business practice
widespread and generated by decentralized
Effective mechanisms are economically beneficial Technological process Carbon accounting becomes sources
devised to cope with the changes toward producing mandatory globally
direct impact of climate New generations of well- food locally to serve
educated people choose Environmentally friendly
related events societal demand while
new knowledge-intensive, goods is now the dominant
reducing carbon emission
agriculture-based industries consumer goods in the
that are more sustainable global market
Algae technology capable of
Water scarcity becomes a Global IT network will
producing fuel (H2, oil, or
cause of War reduce the traveling of Air freight shipments are
ethanol) becomes
people to the 1990 level down to 1990 level
commercially wide-spread

High demand on carbon
2040 Carbon capture and storage
(CCS) is effectively and fully deduction creates
A global regulatory
framework of low carbon is
Political instability and
inter-regional conflicts due
Most existing commercial
buildings are retrofitted to
implemented sustainable income from
totally accepted to climate change impacts save 50% of energy use on
the poor rural people who
lead to little interaction average
Technology and plant trees and energy
between the major
management enable forest crops Personal transportation,
Shift of farming land to economic co-operations
plantations to act as the supplementing mass
Migration of people from higher altitude and colder
main carbon sink It is realized that emission transportation, will mainly
coastal area towards inland areas cause major
trading has had little effect consist of shared, loaned or
induces major conflicts over destruction of the most
on reducing the global rents vehicles
land and resources important carbon sink
green house gas emission

2050 Anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions are stabilized
Breakthroughs in battery
storage technology make
at 1990 level obsolete all other fuels
including H2

Beyond 2050 Conventional fuels
disappear completely from
transportation sector

Scenario workshop
 2-4 November 2009, Phuket, Thailand
 Brought together some 50 creative minds with diverse
expertise, roles, ages, genders, and nationalities from across
the Asia-Pacific to sketch out desirable low-carbon futures
for the region and some paths for how to get there.
 Low carbon – high quality lifestyles, is it possible?

56

• Section 1: Climate Change & Its Impact
– Climate change would have adverse impact but had some doubts about the technologies like carbon
capture and storage and earth system modeling as well as the effectiveness of international agreements.
• Section 2: Migration, Rural Life, and Natural Resources
– Rising sea level will force farmers to shift to higher altitude despite coastal ecosystem management. Impacts
of ecotourism and skilled immigration are only moderate. Water scarcity of course is a major concern. There
are conflicting views whether well-educated people will go farming and whether rural poor can gain
benefits planting trees and energy crops.
• Section 3: Society / Health
– Experts were optimistic that technologies can improve healthcare system. The low carbon concept is
spreading and some consumers are willing to pay more for green product.
• Section 4: Trade of Goods and Services
– Participated experts generally are positive regarding movements towards green trade and services despite
some doubts about the effectiveness of implementation.
• Section 5: Housing and Construction / Urban Life / Transportation
– Experts have good faith in technologies to boost energy efficiency, public transportation, and renewable
energy though conventional fuel will not disappear so quickly.

57

Some lessons learned from scenarios

• Low Carbon society could be reachable within
our lifetime (at least for some of us).
• Community networking is the key. Community-
driven initiatives drive the changes the world
requires in pursuit of the low-carbon
development path.
• Emergence of computerized farming and other
technological advances.
• Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it
replaces USD as the global currency.
63

http://www.lcs2050.com/

64

Devise a roadmap with clear objectives on the steps
APEC should take to transition to low-carbon societies

Mandate and support incorporation of
international climate mitigation and
adaptation strategies into national
development plans.
APEC Energy Working Group has
proposed “Low-Carbon Paths to
Energy Security” and develop a
technology roadmap.

Establish international
certification on green
industries
• Support investment
strategies that encourage
compliance.
• Set regional priorities
such as
 Combating airborne pollution
 Trading in low-carbon products
 Enhancing public awareness
 Strengthening law enforcement
 Promote environmentally sustainable practices.

Advance public education toward
low-carbon societies
• Support regional knowledge
sharing and exchanges through
communications and
networking among APEC
members.
• Promote green values by
supporting APEC-wide media
campaigns that recruit
participation from private sector
actors.

Establish APEC group for climate
change
• The group should
enhance north-
south and south-
south collaboration
and negotiation
among international
parties.
• Political will must be
mobilized.

Participating member economies
1. Hong Kong, China
2. Malaysia
3. Korea
4. Indonesia
5. Philippines
6. New Zealand
7. Canada
8. Japan
9. Australia
10. Vietnam
11. Chinese Taipei
12. Singapore
Macao, China
13. China
United Kingdom
14. Russia
Germany
15. Thailand
16. United States

Source: World Business
Forum for Sustainable
Development
70

Global average energy budget of the Earth’s atmosphere


Adapted from Kiehl & Trenberth (1997)

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) techniques

Source: Royal Society 2009

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) techniques


Preliminary overall evaluation of the geoengineering techniques


What is a Smart Grid?
A smart grid is an electricity network that uses digital
and other advanced technologies to monitor and
manage the transport of electricity from all generation
sources to meet the varying electricity demand of
end-users.

[Technology Roadmap: Smart Grids,

Technologies of Smart Grid/Smart
Community
(Energy supply/demand perspective)

Supply Side Demand Side
Electricity Power Community:
Generation Distribution Micro grid/CEMS
Network and
Storage
Factory: FEMS
Smart Meter

Building: BEMS

House: HEMS

Transport: EV/PHEV

ICT Infrastructure for Smart Community

Lcs for green ict

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

En vedette

En vedette (17)

Similaire à Lcs for green ict

Similaire à Lcs for green ict (20)

Plus de Nares Damrongchai

Plus de Nares Damrongchai (19)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

Lcs for green ict