Trm for mtec

Technology Roadmapping (TRM)
Special Course

Dr. Nares Damrongchai
APEC Center for Technology Foresight

©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 1

Technology
Foresight

Nares Damrongchai
APEC Center for Technology Foresight

Scenarios

Roadmapping
STEEP


Trends & Drivers
V
Products & Services
I
S
I
Technology
O
Supporting Systems
N
(resources)
Source of picture: http://www.pianetabimbi.it/

Present ©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai Future 5

“Roadmapping coal’s future – zero emissions technologies for fossil fuels”, International
Energy Agency Working Party on Fossil Fuels / Coal Industry Advisory Board / Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2005, pg. 20.


“Hitachi disk drive roadmaps”, Grochowski, E., Hitachi San Jose Research
Centre, 2003.


Communication Roadmap Example: Display technology

www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm

• Roadmapping is particularly valuable in novel
situations in which experience is lacking. Part
of the fundamental value of roadmapping is
that it can serve (at least in part) as a
substitute for experience.


Purpose of Roadmapping

“The fundamental purpose of the Technology
Reviews and the Technology Roadmaps is to
assure that we put in motion today what is
necessary in order to have the right technology,
processes, components, and experience in place to
meet the future needs for products and services.”

-- Bob Galvin
Past Chairman of the Board of Motorola
“Father of Roadmapping”

Motorola Roadmap Matrix
- summary of product plans and technology forecast
Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Subcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

PRODUCTS Plus: A NEW SERVICE
Stereo Plus: Plus:
Stock market
Scan PersonalRoad information Super Hi Fi
paging Remote
Seek amplifiers Local maps
©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai controls
Remote 13
Source: Willyard & McClees, 1987

Synchronization of the R&D Timing
Technology 1

Technology 2
R&D item 1 (3y)

R&D item 4 (2y) Technology 3

R&D item 3 (4y)

R&D item 2 (6y)

time
Evaluation criteria: orderDr. Nares Damrongchai on importance,
©2011
of priority based 14
emergency, risk, difficulty of R&D etc. Souce: Kohtsuki (2008)

Practical issues in roadmap design
 Solve 'ownership' issue
 Purpose of use
 From 'Theme' to 'Title'
 Scope
 Time horizon
 Role of core team and stakeholders
 Project management point of view
 Budget
 (Human) Resource
 Risk
 Reporting

Technology roadmapping
Relationship to the strategic planning process

Where are the
Market Information
boundaries of
the roadmapping
process?
Product-Market analysis

Product-Technology Roadmap Defined Project
Options Evaluation Creation Targets Proposals

Technology Assessment

Identification of Technology
Available / Feasible / Possible Source: EIRMA, 1997

Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process
Focus (Theme),
Scope,
Business need Aims Plan

Domain
knowledge

dialogue

Business TRM process
owner owner
Architecture
Process

Source: T-Plan, University of Cambridge

Case study 1
Industrial coding equipment

• Background to organisation and the need for roadmapping

• Starting and continuing the roadmapping process

• Lessons learned

Source: Dr Rick Mitchell, Technical Director

Ink jet coding equipment


Laser coding equipment


Organisation Structure

Holding Company

Business Corporate Sales Manufacturing
Units Functions Channels Operations


Business Units

• Product Identification
• Commercial Printing
• Laser Coding and Marking
• Outer Case Coding


The need for a strategic planning process
• Business Planning System in place (1,3,10 years)
• Lacked clarity on the product need to achieve the strategies

- Commercial groups unclear what they could rely on

- Technical groups unclear what would be required

• All aware that effective innovation needs time…..
• How to manage the dialogue?


The innovation trap
• Time to Market is key
• Minimum time between Requirement Specification and Product
Launch
• Innovation is inherently risky
• Risk means DELAY
• Or incredible luck….
• So: No Innovation in a Development project


Why roadmapping?
• Emphasis on the Product suited the company
(“Everyone in organisation talks about Products”)
• Links Commercial and Technical plans in a
simple visual way
• Provides prioritisation (and justification)
for projects
• Clarifies what products can be offered at what times

• Above all: A Communication Tool


Roadmapping history (to 2002)
Need for better
Product/Technology input

“Seek Advice”

Collaboration with
University of Cambridge

Start-up PI Start-up Laser Start-up process Outer Case Coding CP wait until ready

PI Start-
process Roadmap Roadmap
Draft Roadmap

Marketup
Research Revision 1

Roadmap 1
Revision 2
Has continued to evolve

Roadmap 2 Revision 3

Revision 4


Lasers roadmap Revision 2
1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003
DEVELOPMENT
Peripheral 1

Product 1

Product 2a Product 2b Product 2c

Product 3

Product 4a Product 4b
Product 5a Product 5b Product 5c Product 5d Product 5e

RESEARCH
Research 1 a b c
Research 1

Research 2
Research 3
Research 4
Research 5
Research 6
Research 7
Research 8
Research 9 Jun-00

Review the roadmap regularly
• Because….
• The world and our understanding change
• The act of reviewing :
- Reminds us where we are going
- Brings new colleagues in
- Deepens commitment
- Deepens understanding
- May make us change our view….


Case study 2
Korea National Technology
Roadmap
• Visions and National Agenda

• Porfolio Analysis of Visions

• The Roadmap

Source: STEPI

Visions for Korea’s National Technology Roadmap
1
Building an Information-
Knowledge-Intelligence
Society
2
Aiming at Bio-
5 Improving National
Healthopia Safety Prestige

Visions
for Science and
Technology
in 2012
3 4
Advancing the Upgrading the Value of
Environment/Energy Major Industries of Korea
Frontier Today

Source: National Technology Roadmap (NTRM) Outline, KISTEP (2002)

Example: Portfolio Analysis of Visions
Advanced Precision Machining System New Functional Information Materials/Devices
(2010, $ 270 billion) (2010, $ 300 billion)
Very
High Highly Functional Metals/
Ceramics/Polymers/Textile
(2010, $ 800 billion)

Next Generation Manufacturing System
(2010, $ 200 billion)
User-friendly Advanced Construction
(2011, market-scale $ 40,00 billion, saved $110,000 billion)

Nanomaterials
(2010, $ 200 billion) New Automotive System
High (2011, 75 million cars)

New Ocean Transportation System
(2000, domestic $ 5,000 billion)
Economical Effect

Integrated Transporting System
(market-size $ 100,000 billion before 2011, increasing by $20,000 per
year, saved $ 80,000 billion per year)

Medium New Railway System (Korean Type)
(2010, $ 5,000 billion)

Possibility of
Success
Sustainable natural resource and effective development of
:High natural land
(2011, market-scale $ 4,000 billion, saved $2,000 billion)
Low

:Medium

Very
Low
:Low

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Strategic Importance

Example: The Technology Roadmap
Vision IV Upgrading the Value of Major Strategic Products and Functions:

Economical
Industries of Korea Today Next Generation Manufacturing System

Effects
Direction of Development:
Next Generation Manufacturing and Mechatronics Strategic
Importance

•Diversification of demands – customization mass production age
Assessment •An aging society, the lack of technological/technical man power -> intellectual production age
Importance •The protection of the earth environment, environmental restriction -> clean production age
of future •The development and growth of the key industry through the attainment of high efficiency and high value
High low
Integrated CAX solution
Clean based intellectual and virtual process/factory/company
Knowledge based facility Knowledge acquiring inspection facility
Products and Intellectually autonomous industrial robots/industrial facility
Functions AI (Artificial Intelligence) control system
Integrated automatic storage/distribution
Self-maintaining production system Eco production system
R&D strategy Energy reduction type of facilities
Ecology fused reproduction system

basic research 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
applied research Intelligent Self-learning tech.
manufacturing Self-healing tech.
intn’l collaboration
Key technologies

and clean Self-organizing tech.
outsourcing manufacturing Integrated product information system tech.
system and ultra
precision Optimization modeling/ simulation tech.
machining knowledge tech.
system knowledge tech.
technology AI tech.
Eco-design tech.
Eco-product tech.
Remanufacturing.

Supporting Nano technological
Technologies Energy IT Limitation in the level of AI Tech.

•Limitation in the level of AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology
•Level and time in the utilization of the technology for computer, auto-recognition,
Change reasoning and decision
Factor •Environmental restriction, trade restriction and uncertainty in the earth environmental
change

Case study 3
UK Foresight Vehicle Technology
Roadmap
• Key Themes

• Architecture and Process of the Roadmap

• The Roadmap

Source: Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge

http://www.foresightvehicle.org.uk/

Road transport system: key themes

Social Social, economic and
environmental drivers
reflect the three
cornerstones of
Economic Environmental sustainable development

Technology, policy and
infrastructure
Political Infrastructural enable or constrain
progress towards the
social, economic and
environmental goals
Technological

Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap:
architecture
+5 years +10 years +15 years +20 years
Now Vision
Market / S Time
T

Industry Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
E
E
P
drivers I

Performance T
S

E Evolution of required and desirable functional
measures EP performance of road transport systems of the future
and targets I

Technical Required and desired technological response,
Group areas including research requirements

Foresight Vehicle TRM: process
Engine and powertrain (E&PT)

Hybrid, electric and alternatively
fuelled vehicles (HEV)
Market Road
and transport
Planning industry system Advanced software, sensors, Reporting
Consultation electronics and telematics (ASSET) Synthesis
(Oct „01) trends performance (Sept „02)
and measures
drivers and targets
Advanced structures
and materials (FASMAT)

Design and manufacturing
Processes (DMaP)

Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information

• 10 month duration • More than 130 participants
• 10 workshops • More than 60 organisations

Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision

80-85% of journeys Growth in personal mobility (70% of Individual 2010: Passenger 2015: 150% 2031: 57% increase in Cheap,
by car 39,40,103 drivers use car for leisure day trips every „time budget‟ numbers through UK increase in UK road traffic, safe,
week or month; 50% expect to be making for travel airports increase by international air compared to 1996 80,103 reliable,
75% of all journeys
more by 2020) 42 remains 50% 30 traffic; 100% clean
are under 5 miles
constant ? increase in 2031: 40% increase convenient,
and 45% are less
Journey times increasing (70% longer domestic, comfortable
than 2 miles 31 2010: 20-50% increase 2012: Bicycle in bus / coach
by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67 journeys compared to vehicle miles, transport
in European road
double 31 1995 1 compared to 1996 1 for all
Increasing passenger and
Nearly one third of Vehicles sold increasingly as
complexity of haulage traffic 13,80
UK households do „lifestyle‟ choices ?
not have a car (13 lives ? Frustration with congestion and public 2022: 70%
million people) 31 transport continues ? increase in journey
Increasing female vehicle purchase / 2010: 10% increase
(journey time no longer predictable) times in many UK
Many different ownership (women are more likely to in bus passenger
describe their cars as „stylish‟, „sporty‟ or Trend towards cities 1996 80
stakeholder groups, journeys 30
„fun‟) 42 career
with different needs
Balance between „downsizing‟ for New working / 2030: population
from transport Legal issues and
People and jobs global, national improved 2010: 50% living patterns in the UK is
system frameworks ?
have moved out of and local lifestyle ? increase in rail forecast to
the city and town solutions ? passenger miles 30 Social increase by 3.3%,
UK car-centric centres 103 Shift from car ownership to 61 million
attitudes
culture Increasing to car access ? 1,39,40,67, after
towards road
Increasing proportion of women in leisure time 39,40 which it will
transport and
1999: UK „leads‟ paid employment (9.9 million in decline to 57
the
world in vehicle 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73 Increased million by 2050 73
Increasing 2010: 25% of UK environment?
theft (twice global use of car 2015: 400 million
average at 2.5%); More than half of drivers exceed speed mobile workforce pools ? people live in
cost of vehicle- limits on motorways, dual carriageways working teleworking at megacities of more 2030: 22- 27% of
related crime and residential roads 66 least two days per than 10 million UK population
£6bn 46,47 week 57 inhabitants 57
More residential traffic calming schemes over retirement
and pedestrianisation of town centres age, compared to
2000: 19% in 1998;
3,500 road traffic 2016: 4 million (25%)
Demand to Shift in social Younger pension costs rise
deaths and 40,000 increase in housing (80%
reduce deaths attitudes to generation more from 4.5-5.5% of
serious injuries in single-person), increasing
Between 8 and and injuries on speeding IT-literate GDP 1,25,39,40
UK, at an estimated demand for travel 1,67
20% of car- roads
cost of £13.3bn
owning
(40,000 deaths and
households 2007: working at home becoming Continued 2016: 25% increase in number 2021: Households
1.7 million injuries in
experience common (currently more than 66% of growth of of UK households, 80% of in South-east
EU, representing a
vehicle-related European organisations with more cities and growth due to single person forecast to grow by
cost of 2% of GDP) Increasing
8,37,39,40 crime each year, than 500 employees already practice towns, mainly households; 1.3% rural land 19% on 2001 levels
concern about teleworking) 28,39,40 41
depending on in South East use predicted to change to
crime, security
region 41 urban land use 39,40
and safety
Mobility & congestion Health, safety & security
Key: Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics

Example summary roadmap content:
Social performance measures & targets
002 2007 2012 2017 2022

Aim for 2005: 70% user 2010: 80% user 2020: 85%
„equitable‟ satisfaction with satisfaction with user
mobility all transport all transport satisfaction Vehicle
(same modes (measure modes with all adaptability
price for of „convenience‟) transport
same modes
journey Urban people
for all 2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5 transport
Society

groups in - Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5
society) minutes
- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window Effective
glass: 2 minutes selling and
customer
2005: Road traffic 2010: Road traffic 2020: Road traffic noise reduced
noise reduced by noise reduced by by 6dBA;
support
3dBA from 1998 4dBA Homologated noise reduction of
levels 4dBA and 8dBA for light and
heavy vehicles, respectively

Update: Foresight Vehicle TRM - Round 2

• „Ownership‟ of Foresight Vehicle has shifted to Industry (SMMT)
• Roadmap has become a central „reference point‟ for consortium
• Aims for Round 2:
- Development of efficient low maintenance repeatable process
- Increased (industrial) focus & prioritisation
• 6 half day workshops
• Version 2 of the Roadmap was published in October 2004

Case study 4
NANOTEC Roadmap

• Analysis of resource

• Analysis of global trend and future demand

• Research agenda

Source: APEC Center for Technology Foresight, NANOTEC

National and Global R&D Agenda
Existing and Future Resource
Competitive Strength

Nanotech Technology Roadmap CPMO Cluster Roadmaps
(Platform Technology)

Where we want to go?
How will we go there?
What resources are needed?
What are the obstacles?

NANOTEC Strategic Plan

NANOTEC Annual Operation Plan

Work Plan and Resource Allocation of
NANOTEC Central Laboratory
Network of COEs
Extramural Funding 15

Nanotech Technology Roadmap
(platform technology)

National and Global S&T Agenda (from various sources)
Demand-Pull

TARGETs (“Technology” targets and “Application” targets)

Supply-Push
Role of Nanotechnology in those targets

Existing and Future
Expertise and Resources

Role of Thailand/NANOTEC

Nanotechnology TRM

17

Technology capability of NANOTEC staff

PhD staff = 28 Researchers
(each has more than one capability)
68
4
8

Functional Nanostructure Equipment
No. of Equipment

Techniques

72
4
9

Coating Platform (2) – Degree of Relevance


Technology Platforms

Core
Technology

Characterization / Testing
Core
Knowledge
Tools Modeling / Simulation

51
Intelligence information, safety and Risk management

‘First-cut’ roadmap
• In groups of two, generate 2-3 post-it notes for each broad layer
• Consider all layers & timeframes of roadmap
… history, current plans, events, external actions,
future possibilities, issues, vision
• Round table, each group place a post-it on chart, and share with group
(limit discussion to points of clarification)… 2 rounds
• Generate as many additional post-it notes as possible and
place on roadmap („parallel‟ activity) - fill „white space‟
• Identify and discuss key strategic issues
(„arrow‟ post-it notes)


Points of ‘First-cut’ roadmap

• Participatory
• Quick “story”
• Exploratory
• Creative
• Active „canvas‟
• Capture, structure and share knowledge
- know-why
- know-what
- know-how
plans, forecasts,
- know-when
issues, links,
- know-who
challenges,
- know-where
questions,
speculation


‘First-cut’ roadmap (‘landscape’)


Process funnel (e.g. strategy, product development)

Stage gates

Requirements fluid
Concepts fuzzy
Many unknowns Requirements clear, stable
Time, effort, iteration Concepts clear, stable
Many options
Many assumptions Fewer unknowns, risks understood
Few constraints Fewer options, greater constraints
Scenarios

Year
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

? ? ? ? Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

? Subcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

? Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

? ? Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre
? ? ? ?
Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

? ? ? ? ? PRODUCTS Plus: A NEW SERVICE
Stereo Plus: Plus:
Stock market
Scan Personal Road information Super Hi Fi
? ? ? paging Remote
Seek amplifiers Local maps
Remote controls

Divergent process Convergent process

Source: University of Cambridge

Technology Roadmap for Bicycles (example)
Now +2y +5y Time + 10 y
Business Market
(Ext.)
Drivers

(Int.)
Product
Technology
Resources /
Other


Business Drivers:
Business Market
(Ext.)

Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.
Drivers

New owner
(Int.)

Demonstrator New Range 2nd Generation
- Investment
Product

Market change and business change
・smaller population of consumer population
・variety of tastes
・digitization, tendency for networking
・change in systems e.g. tax
Technology

・globalization
Resources /
Other


Biko - Product evolution:
Business Market
(Ext.)

Drivers

New owner Demonstrator New Range 2nd Generation
(Int.)

- Investment “Design your own bike”

Style Designer look Expand range On-line design

“Super-bike”
Product

Comfort Ergonomic Moulded £500-1000
design seat Customised frame

Technical Direct drive “Chip-on-bike” Automatic

Product specifications
Technology

What functions are needed?
Resources /
Other


Biko - Technology needs:
Business Market
(Ext.)

Drivers

(Int.)



“Super-bike”
Product


Technical Direct drive “Chip-on-bike” Automatic”

Internet Networked Networked
mass customisation
business factory
Technology

design Materials / Ergonomics
mechanics CADCAM Visualisation
Electronics Security Communications
What technologies are
Resources /
Other

needed to realize the
product

Resource / other needs:
Business Market
(Ext.)

Drivers

(Int.)



“Super-bike”
Product


Technical Direct drive “Chip-on-bike” Automatic”

Internet Networked Networked
mass customisation
business factory
Technology

design Materials / Ergonomics
mechanics Usage of
CADCAM management resource （existing
Visualisation
Electronics technologies, HR, funding）
Security Communications
Resources /

Alliances: gear / drive; styling; electronics
Other

Skills Capital Branding & promotion Sportco

What to expect 'post-roadmapping'
 Mutual understanding
 Synchronization with company strategy
 Better communication
 ...


Roadmapping challenges
50
45
40
Response (%)

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Starting up Developing a Roll-out of Keeping the Other
the TRM robust TRM the TRM TRM process
process process process 'alive' on an
ongoing
basis
Source: CTM survey, 1999


How NANOTEC Platform TRM will be used

 To communicate annual R&D agenda (priority areas of implementation), while
being aware of the next agenda.
 As guidance for key NANOTEC’s operations: R&D Funding and call for papers,
Direction of in-house Central Laboratory, and COEs.
 To manage Changes that are vital to survival and growth of NANOTEC. For
example,
 Direct resources/capability in the key areas, while limit resources in others
 Recruit personnel in specific technical areas
 Modify internal structure (e.g. phase out some labs and set up new ones)
 Tie TRM cycle with NANOTEC's operational cycle and update it constantly, esp. at
Board meetings (← keep it alive!)

This is a living technology roadmap
Still a work-in-progress
Need to be further refined 121
6
4

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