Advice to Investor Today: Hold the Stock of ICIC Bank and Book Profit on ACC Limited

"BOOK PROFIT" 18th Mar 2014
No doubt the stock's fundamentals are good and also available at a cheaper rate comparing to its early trade . In the previous one month the
stock performed well & recover 20-22% from its estimated low of CY2013. We didn't expected this rise to be so fast.The CMP was estimated for
a medium term target price looking at its earnings and fundamentals . How ever the target price got achieved few days back. we believe the
stock's fundamental is still good and price too cheap also , but for the earning up gradation and revised target price we would like to see the 1st
quarter earnings, hence we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between Rs.1253 to Rs.1310.
......................................................................... ( Page : 2-4)
IEA-Equity
Strategy
18th Mar, 2014
Edition : 226
V-Guard Industries Ltd: "Colling Gun……..." "BUY" 14th Mar 2014
Infosys: "Recovery delayed, but not denied" "BUY" 14th Mar 2014
AXIS BANK :
ICICI BANK : "HOLD" 18th Mar 2014
In our earlier note dated 31st Jan.2014 in which we have given the price target of Rs.1094 lower side of valuation band. Now the stock reached
to the level of Rs.1214 but still below of our upper side of valuation band. We value bank in the range of Rs. 836 to Rs.1287 depending upon the
fundamental and return ratios. Since our result updated report, the stock has given the return of 24%, now we advice our investor to hold the
stock as bank has potential to reached at upper side of valuation band. ........................ ( Page : 5-10)
ACC Limited :
At current market capitalization of Rs. 23444 Crores, the stock is trading at a forward P/B of just 0.9. Tata Steel is a blue chip stock and is
available at a very cheap valuation. But if we look at its historical stock performance, in the past three years it had continued to trade between
0.6 to 1.9 P/B range.With the European crisis behind us, US economy getting stronger and better outlook for Indian economy on the expectation
of stable government at the Center, We feel Tata Steel share price may have some more price appreciation left given the improvement in
financial performance and Outlook. We recommend Buy on the stock at a medium term target price of Rs.401.
............................................................................ ( Page : 19- 21)
Addressing an Investor Con Call, Infosys management has expressed its cautious view on earnings outlook as well as clients spending for near
term. They indicated that FY14E would be a year of lower earnings than NASSCOM guidance followed by FY13 and FY12. The company’s knee
jerk has not associated with single factor; these are partly company specific and partly external factors.
.......................................................................................................... ( Page : 14 - 15)
Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd : "Turnarround Counter" "BUY" 13th Mar 2014
The company was the first to get 5 star rating for energy efficiency for its products from BEE. In addition to submersible pumps, company also
producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal pumps, Pressure booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps etc. Recently company
introduced pumps working with solar power. In next three years company incline to achieve sale revenue of Rs. 600 crore with the net margin of
9-10%. Company is planning to increase the Branch Network to 30 and Dealer network to 3 fold in coming few year. Further, Company have
plans to register our presence in all BRICS, G20 and European Union and in other growing countries in coming years. On valuation front shakti
pump is available at a single digit PE and EV/EBIDTA of 5.6x/4.1x and 4.7x/3.8x of its FY14E/15E estimates. In a volatile market, a company
available at single digit valuations certainly looks up for grabs .................................................................... ( Page : 22-24)
On recent interview management expect a sales growth of around 10% in 4QFY14 on back of strong sales growth of 12-12.5% in January and
February month of 2014. Last financial year for Q4 company had very low margins because of two reasons, higher ad spend and one-off items.
As Vguard product portfolio consist of 65-70% summer facing in nature and we believe that the strong summer expectation in 2014 and low
base of FY14 would lead a revenue growth of at least 18% in FY14E. ....................................................................... ( Page : 16-18)
"BOOK PROFIT" 14th Mar 2014
Recent rally in Axis Bank is fundamentally not justified but is the result of sentiment boost up lead by Modi effect. Opinion poll suggests BJP led
NDA would come to power after the general election. NDA prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is perceived by foreign investor as a
decisive and development making leader. Market participates have hope for revival in economy and business growth opportunity to start again.
This would be result of diminishing NPA buffer and profitability boost up. We advice our clients to book part profit.
....................................................................................... ( Page : 11- 13)
"BUY" 14th Mar 2014TATA STEEL Ltd :
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
India Equity Analytics
Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

ACC Ltd.
1253
1257
1257
0%
0%
500410
19634
9817
6063
Holcim eyeing Jaypee Group's cement grinding plant in Panipat
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute -3.5 -22.3 -21.0
Rel. to Nifty -1.9 -24.4 -22.8
Cureent 3QCY13 2QCY13
Promoters 50.3 50.3 50.3 JP Associates looks to exit JV with SAIL
FII 20.0 20.9 19.5
DII 12.9 11.9 11.7
Others 16.8 16.9 18.6
Management Quotes :
Financials : Q4CY13 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q4CY12 Q3CY13
Net Revenue 2792 -12.2 8.6 3180 2570
EBITDA 361 -9.3 26.2 398 286
Depriciation 153 -3.2 6.3 158 144
Interest Cost 12 -55.6 9.1 27 11
Tax -36 -190.0 -170.6 40 51
PAT 278 16.3 129.8 239 121
(In Crs)
2
Market Data
BSE Code
ACC
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
According to Management the economic environment in the country was sluggish, thus
impacting the demand for cement and concrete. As a result, the company's cement
volumes remained almost flat. The company appears not enthusiastic for demand growth
going forward. Based on current demand indications, we do not foresee any significant
improvement in the cement.
52wk Range H/L 1355/912
CMP
Upside
Change from Previous
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Result Update Book Profit
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Stock Performance-%
Share Holding Pattern-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nearly we saw a upward rally in stocks due to the forecasting of a stable government
after election by the market players. The sentimental effect on market is on positive side
,hence the low valued stock like ACC took very less time like one month to come to its
near fare value, which we had estimated for a medium term target.
No doubt the stock's fundamentals are good and also available at a cheaper rate
comparing to its early trade . In the previous one month the stock performed well &
recover 20-22% from its estimated low of CY2013. We didn't expected this rise to be so
fast.The CMP was estimated for a medium term target price looking at its earnings and
fundamentals . How ever the target price got achieved few days back. we believe the
stock's fundamental is still good and price too cheap also , but for the earning
upgradation and revised target price we would like to see the 1st quarter earnings, hence
we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between Rs.1253 to Rs.1310.
Holcim Cements has expressed interest in the grinding unit which has an annual capacity
of 1.5 million tonnes per annum and the talks are at a preliminary stage. Holcim wants to
expand its presence in North India through this strategic asset and will take a call if this
potential deal can be routed through ACC cements.ACC Cements has a cement plant
nearby in Himachal Pradesh and if JP's grinding unit is absorbed, it would be beneficial
logistically and even in terms of costs.
JP Associates,looking to sell its entire stake in its cement joint ventures with SAIL to cut
down its debt.The company is likely to part with its 74% stake in Bhilai and Bokaro
cement plants that together have an installed capacity of 4.3 mtpa. As per the story , the
company is eying around Rs. 2900 crore from the deal with cement major ACC.The deal
with ACC if it happens would imply enterprise value of USD 147 per MT as against USD
127 per MT it got for Gujarat plant sale.
NSE Symbol
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Nifty
"Book
Profit"
18th March' 14

Outlook
Valuation And Recommendation
Company Description :
Margin Gap
Margin Gap
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E
10237 11358 11169 13027
191 263 219 219
10428 11621 11389 19723
2199 2384 2384 0
1940 2219 2299 0
8316 9162 9540 10942
1921 2197 1848 2084
510 569 584 639
97 115 52 50
215 391 132 323
1276 1050 1094 1292
17.7 18.8 13.8 15.3
3
Depriciation
Tax
PAT
ROE%
Power and fuel
Freight and forwarding
Expenditure
EBITDA
Cement Realization
Cement Realization
Per Ton Analysis
Interest Cost
Total Income
Per Ton Analysis
ACC Ltd.
P/L PERFORMANCE
Net Revenue from Operation
Other Income
Cement Sales Volume
Cement Realization
Cement Realization
ACC Limited (ACC) is engaged in manufacture of cement & ready mixed concrete. The
Company has grinding plants in Karnataka and clinkering line in Maharashtra. The
Company’s subsidiaries include ACC Mineral Resources Limited, Lucky Minmat Limited,
Bulk Cement Corporation (India) Limited, National Limestone Company Private Limited
and Encore Cement and Additives Private Limited. The Company is subsidiary of Ambuja
Cement India Private Limited.
Cement prices witnessed an increase during Oct-Nov,13 but also witnessed a sharp fall
during Dec,13 which has contributed towards lower average realizations for the year for
the company.Further,with a strong balance sheet with zero debt and better dividend
yield of 3%,we continue to remain positive despite near term challenges.We revise our
estimates downwards to factor in lower demand growth scenario. At current price of Rs
1253, stock is trading at 2.8x P/B and 2.8x P/B on CY14 estimates.Valuation looks good
for this company,but we would like to see the 1st quarter for earning upgrading hence
we recommend Book Profit on the stock at a price range between 1253 to 1310.
Company has made several capacity expansion plans in the region. ACC is replacing the
existing facilities at Jamul, Chhattisgarh with a clinker plant with an annual production
capacity of 2.8 MT and local grinding capacity of 1.1 MT of cement, while a new plant
with annual capacity of 2.7 MT is scheduled to be built in Kharagpur. The capacity
expansion plant will increase the company's total cement production capacity to 35 MT
from the existing 30 MT.On a QoQ basis, the EBITDA/tonne improved 10.4% due to an
improvement in realisations & comparatively lower increase in total expenditure/tonne,
it shows a positive view for the further quarters.onsidering the expansion plans we
expect 4% growth in sales volume and 10% growth in realization for CY14.

CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13
6281 6979 7372 7813
510 506 85 0
14 0 0 0
188 126 157 89
1581 816 661 642
1466 1051 1227 1081
11041 11921 11928 12101
77 48 39 40
5230 6359 5893 6040
1564 370 314 322
283 461 566 880
926 1113 1134 1122
249 266 303 397
1086 1660 681 506
162 279 325 340
11041 11921 11928 12101
CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13
3.2 3.1 3.6 2.7
57.4 68.7 73.8 57.6
3.0 2.6 2.7 3.6
19.1 8.0 5.8 5.7
19632 20180 26240 20296
18.7 16.5 19.4 19.2
12.7 10.5 11.9 12.5
2.8 2.5 2.1 2.7
14.6 15.2 16.3 12.3
0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4
Trading At :
4
Debt/Equity
Current Ratio
Dividend Yield%
ROCE%
Inventories
Long-term loans and advances
Capital work-in-progress
Trade payables
Long-term provisions
Cash and bank balances
ACC Ltd.
Total equity
Long-term borrowings
Short-term borrowings
B/S PERFORMANCE
Trade receivables
Short-term loans and advances
RATIOS
EV
Creditors to Turnover%
P/E
EV/EBIDTA
P/B
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%
Total Assets
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Tangible assets

1214
1287
1094
6
18
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 23.7 7.4 7.4
Rel.to Nifty 15.3 -2.0 -2.0
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
3Promoters 66.7 64.1 64.1
FII 11.0 13.2 13.6
DII 15.4 15.3 15.6
Others 6.9 7.4 6.7
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 10739 10734 13866 17734 21111
Total Income 42252 18237 22212 27035 30413
PPP 10950 10386 13199 16762 18856
Net Profit 6093 6465 8325 10658 11955
EPS 52.9 56.0 72.2 92.3 103.6
5
Strong operating performance led by healthy balance sheet growth
ICICI Bank reported revenue growth of 23.5% YoY led by strong operating
performance and healthy non interest income. Strong growth in NII was led by
margin expansion on year on year basis which further led by strong growth in loan
and higher deposits base. Bank’s loan grew by 16% YoY supported by retail and
oversea loan while deposits grew by 11%. Credit deposits for the quarter was 102%
largely liquidity came from borrowing fund but strong base of CASA kept cost of fund
under control. Operating cost increased by 15.7% YoY but CI ratio remained under
control. Operating leverage increased sequentially due to higher expansion towards
branch expansion. Overall it remained in the range of 0.40% to 0.45%.
ICICI BANK
Market Data
Upside
758
BSE Code 532174
NSE Symbol ICICIBANK
Company Update HOLD
Target Price
In our earlier note dated 31st Jan.2014 in which we have given the price target
of Rs.1094 lower side of valuation band. Now the stock reached to the level of
Rs.1214 but still below of our upper side of valuation band. We value bank in
the range of Rs. 836 to Rs.1287 depending upon the fundamental and return
ratios. Since our result updated report, the stock has given the return of 24%,
now we advice our investor to hold the stock as bank has potential to reached
at upper side of valuation band.
CMP
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Stock Performance
52wk Range H/L
Average Daily Volume
140141
Asset quality continued to be concern, impairment asset were higher at QoQ,
Management remained cautious on asset quality
On asset quality front, bank saw some deterioration as impaired assets (GNPA +
Restructure Asset) to loan increased from 5.3% to 5.7% sequentially. According to
bank’s management it would remain at elevated level going forward. However bank
has lower exposure towards corporate segment where slippage risk is relatively high
in current scenario. Total loan in corporate debt restructure was to tune of 30
bn(0.9% of loan). However GNPA showed some strength sequentially and was
improved slightly to 3.07% from 3.10% while net NPA stood at 0.94% versus 0.85%
due to lower loan loss provision made. But provision coverage ratio remained at 70%
level, so nothing to worry about.
ICICI Bank Vs Nifty
3.58 lakh
Nifty
"HOLD"
18th March 2014

6
ICICI BANK
Margin expansion led by stable NIM and healthy loan growth
ICICI bank NIM was stable at 3.32% sequentially led by stable NIM and retail loan.
Bank’s CASA was strong at 43%+ on which current account growth of 13.2% and saving
account growth of 17.5% ahead of private sector banks. Overall CASA reported 16%
YoY growth and in percentage to total deposits, it stood at 42.9% at the end of 3QFY14.
Bank’s loan grew by 16% YoY led by retail loan which grew by 22% YoY and share in
retail loan increased from 35% to 37% at the end of December quarter. Loan growth from
oversea branches was also supportive, registered growth of 24% YoY. Share of oversea
loan composition was 28% at the end of quarter, an increase of 200 bps YoY.
Growth of CASA trend

7
Non Interest Income
ICICI Bank’s total income grew by 23.5% YoY was due to non interest income growth of
26.5% YoY in fee income registered growth of 12.8% YoY. Dividend and other income
growth was higher at 85% owing to higher dividend income from life insurance subsidiary
whereas treasury income grew by 78% YoY. Overall healthy growth in non interest
income was due to bank saw reversal of M2M provisions on bond and equity portfolio.
Composition of non interest income to total revenue
Source: Company/Eastwind
NIM was stable at sequnetial basis led by
strong loan growth and CASA base
ICICI BANK
ICICI Bank NIM remain healthy
Healthy loan growth led by retail and oversea loan growth
Loan Composition (Rs Cr) 3QFY13 2QFY14 3QFY14 YoY Gr. QoQ Gr.
Domestic Corporate 98074 103598 104779 6.8 1.1
Retails Business 100081 115039 122076 22.0 6.1
Overseas Branches 73699 84531 91474 24.1 8.2
SME 14912 14618 14303 -4.1 -2.2
% of loan
Domestic Corporate 34.2 32.6 31.5
Retails Business 34.9 36.2 36.7
Overseas Branches 25.7 26.6 27.5
SME 5.2 4.6 4.3
Non Interest Income 3QFY13 2QFY14 3QFY14 YoY Gr. QoQ Gr.
Core fee income 17.71 19.94 19.97 12.8 0.2
Dividend & Other Income 1.93 2.51 3.57 85.0 42.2
Treasury Income 2.51 -0.79 4.47 78.1 -
Rs.Cr 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14
NII 1991 2204 2312 2510 2411 2506 2712 3105 3193 3371 3499 3803 3820 4044 4256
OtherIncome 1681 1578 1749 1641 1643 1740 1892 2228 1880 2043 2215 2208 2484 2166 2801
TotalIncome 3672 3782 4061 4150 4054 4246 4604 5333 5073 5414 5714 6011 6305 6210 7057
%ofOtherIncometoNII 84.4 71.6 75.6 65.4 68.1 69.4 69.8 71.8 58.9 60.6 63.3 58.1 65.0 53.6 65.8

8
Bank reported deterioration in asset quality (GNPA) in sequential basis by 3.7% in
absoluter term. In percentage to gross advance, GNPA stood at 3.07% versus 3.1% in
previous quarter (marginally improved).
Sequentailly cost to income ratio remained
satble. Management guided CI ratio would be
below of 40% in FY14.
Operating leverage remain ed stable but
sequentially up led by higher operating
expansion largely due to branch expansion
cost
Operating leverage increased sequentially but remained under control. The rise of
operating leverage was due to increased expansion towards branch expansion.
ICICI BANK
Operating Expenses and Employee Cost
Total expenses increased by 15.7% YoY in which employee cost and other operating
cost were increased by 6% and 23% YoY respectively. Cost to income ratio was
remained flat at 37.1% sequentially while operating leverage (operating cost to total
asset) increased slightly from 0.41% to 0.46% but remained under control. This was due
to branch expansion.
Asset quality remain under pressure

9
At the current price of Rs.1214, bank is trading at 1.8 times of FY14E book value. We
value bank in the range of Rs.836 to Rs.1287 depending upon fundamental and return
ratio. Our base case assumption was deposits growth of 12%, loan growth of 17% in
FY14 and margin at current level. Improvement and deterioration from base and bull case
would driven the price movement in either side. We advance our clients to hold the stock
as bank has potential to reach upper side of value band.
Valuation Band
1 Yr forward P/BV 1 Yr forward P/E
ICICI BANK
Provisions were declined by 0.6% QoQ taking net NPA increased by 15.3% QoQ. In
percentage to net advance, this ratio stood at 0.94% versus 0.85% in previous quarter.
Lower provisions made PCR to 70.1% versus 73.1% in previous quarter. Bank’s impair
asset (GNPA+ Restructure asset) were 5.7% of advance at the end of quarter from 5.3%
in previous quarter and 5% in last quarter. Bank management guided asset quality stress
would remain at elevated level. According to the company, corporate debt restructure
pipeline presently is Rs.30 bn which is 0.9% of loan.
Asset quality remained concern. Management
expects it to remained elevated level going
forward. Outstanding CDR at 0.9% of loan
Valuation & View

10
ICICI BANK
Financials & Assuption
Quarterly Result 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Interest/discount on advances / bills 19098 22130 27341 31646 34992
Income on investments 9181 9684 11009 11785 13220
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 469 491 543 184 184
Others 1334 1238 1182 946 946
Total Interest Income 30081 33543 40076 44561 49342
Others Income 31513 7503 8346 9302 9302
Total Income 61595 41045 48421 53863 58644
Interest on deposits 11315 14304 16889 18217 20402
Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 1683 1469 2087 0 0
Others 6345 7035 7234 10146 11364
Interest Expended 19343 22808 26209 27812 28840
NII 10739 10734 13866 16749 20502
Other Income 31513 7503 8346 9302 9302
Total Income 42252 18237 22212 26051 29804
Employee 4393 3515 3893 4451 5096
Other Expenses 26910 4335 5120 5441 6229
Operating Expenses 31302 7850 9013 9892 11325
PPP( Rs Cr) 10950 10386 13199 16159 18478
Provisions 4631 1583 1803 2592 2853
PBT 0 8803 11397 13567 15626
Tax 0 2338 3071 4071 4688
Net Profit 6093 6465 8325 9496 10938
Balance Sheet
DEPOSITS 259106 255500 292,614 321,875 360,500
Deposits Growth 7.3 -1.4 14.5 10.0 12.0
Borrowings 125839 140165 145,341 158,535 177,560
Borrowings Growth(%) 8.8 11.4 3.7 9.1 12.0
Investment 209653 159560 171,394 187,360 209,843
Growth(%) 12.5 -23.9 7.4 9.3 12.0
Advances 256019 253728 290,249 339,592 380,343
Growth(%) 13.4 -0.9 14.4 17.0 12.0
Eastwind Calculation
Yield on Advances 7.5 8.7 9.4 9.3 9.2
Yield on Investments 4.7 6.4 6.7 6.3 6.3
Cost of deposits 4.4 5.6 5.8 5.7 8.0
Cost of Borrowings 6.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.4
Cost of fund 5.0 5.8 6.0 0.0 5.9
Valuation
Book Value 480 524 578 643 682
P/BV 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5
P/E 5.5 7.3 9.4 9.2 10.6

AXIS BANK
1385
1340
1220
-3
10
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 25.2 -1.9 -1.9
Rel.to Nifty 17.9 -11.1 -11.1
Promoters 33.9 33.9 33.9
FII 43.2 43.4 40.7
DII 9.7 4.9 8.8
Others 13.2 17.8 16.6
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 6566 8026 9666 12224 14775
Total Income 11238 13513 16217 19146 21697
PPP 6377 7413 9303 11206 12367
Net Profit 3340 4224 5179 5826 6934
EPS 81.4 102.2 110.7 124.2 148.2
11
Company Updated BOOK PART
PROFIT
CMP
In last one month, Axis Bank has outperformed Bank Nifty and CNX Nifty by
6% and 18% respectively and is now trading at more than 1.7 times of FY14E
book value which is above of our upper side of valuation band. We value bank
in the range of 1.5 to 1.7 times of book lower than its peers group largely due
to some exposure in stress sector specially in infra and power companies
where slippage risk are relatively high. We value bank in the range of Rs.1220
to Rs.1340 per share that implying book value multiple of 1.5 to 1.7 based on
current fundamental and return ratios. The rise of stock price is supported by
opinion poll result which suggests BJP led NDA would come in power. NDA
prime ministry candidate Narendra Modi is perceived by foreign investor as a
decisive and development making leader and would rescue economy.AXISBANK
Market Data
BSE Code
Axis Bank Vs Nifty
26.18 cr
532215
NSE Symbol
Axis bank’s low cost deposits CASA has grown faster than peers like ICICI bank
and is stable at 43% at the end of 3QFY14. Bank’s management expects it to reach
at 46% in FY15E which would help to keep cost of deposits under control and hence
margin expansion. In loan growth parameter, Axis bank expects loan growth higher
than industry growth by 2%. Incremental loan growth would come from SME and
retail sector while corporate loan book is expected to remain sluggish. Bank’s capital
adequacy ratio is close to 17% in which tier -1 capital of 12.5% much healthier than
peers indicating no need to raise money for long tenure in near term. ROA at pre
provisioning profit is at 3% indicating strong capability to delivered profit once asset
quality issue resolve.
Stress loan (GNPA+ Restructure asset) is remained at 3.7% of advances but it might
go up as bank has significant exposure in power (5.54%) and Infrastructure (7.33%)
where slippage risk is relatively high in present economy scenario. Provision
coverage ratio reported by bank is 78% with technical write off which would provides
some cushion on earnings. Axis bank still have 46% of loan exposure in large
corporate where profitability uncertain due to ongoing recession. Therefore on asset
quality front, bank would still have to face tough time as per our view.
We believe market sentiment in recent days are boosted up on the hope that BJP
led NDA would come to power after the general election and revive economy. The
domestic equity market is supported by opinion poll result which suggests BJP led
NDA coming to power after the forthcoming election. Over the last few months, the
estimated numbers of seat, the NDA may win has increased from 165-175 to 220-
230 seats. The prime ministerial candidate of NPA Narendra Modi is known for his
development in Gujarat. Domestic as well as foreign investors are in hope that Indian
economy would come at track and business opportunity would start again. Banking
stocks are rallied more than other sectors in hoping of reducing fresh NPA creation.
64823 Domestic equity market boost-up by economy revival sentiment
Key positive trigger
Key negative trigger
Stock Performance
Target Price
Upside
Nifty 6493
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
"BOOK PART
PROFIT "
14th March, 2014

12
Quarterly Result
AXIS BANK
Source: Eastwind/Company
QuarterlyResult 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 %YoYGr %QoQGr 3QFY14E Variation
Interest/discountonadvances/bills 5557 5394 4907 13.3 3.0 5748 3.4
Incomeoninvestments 2110 2143 2014 4.8 -1.5 2235 5.9
InterestonbalanceswithReserveBankofIndia 49 35 25 97.7 39.4 35 -29.2
Others 73 37 19 277.1 95.6 38 -47.4
TotalInterestIncome 7789 7609 6965 11.8 2.4 8056 3.4
OthersIncome 1644 1766 1615 1.8 -6.9 1774 7.9
TotalIncome 4628 4703 4110 12.6 -1.6 4780 3.3
InterestExpended 4805 4672 4470 7.5 2.8 5049 5.1
NII 2984 2937 2495 19.6 1.6 3006 0.8
OtherIncome 1644 1766 1615 1.8 -6.9 1774 7.9
TotalIncome 4628 4703 4110 12.6 -1.6 4780 3.3
Employee 655 644 615 6.5 1.7 0
OtherExpenses 1358 1309 1134 19.8 3.8 0
OperatingExpenses 2013 1953 1749 15.1 3.1 2008 -0.3
PPP(RsCr) 2615 2750 2362 10.7 -4.9 2772 6.0
Provisions 202 687 387 -47.7 -70.5 752 271.4
PBT 2413 2062 1975 22.2 17.0 2020 -16.3
Tax 808 700 628 28.8 15.5 687 -15.0
NetProfit 1604 1362 1347 19.1 17.7 1333 -16.9
BalanceSheetDate
NetWorth 37649 36224 27027 39.3 3.9 37558 -0.2
Deposits 262398 255365 244501 7.3 2.8 272935 4.0
Loan 211467 201303 179504 17.8 5.0 214892 1.6
Assetqualtiy(RsCr)
GNPA 3008 2734 2275 32.2 10.0 -
NPA 1003 838 679 47.8 19.7 -
%GNPA 1.4 1.4 1.3 -
%NPA 0.5 0.4 0.4 -

13
AXIS BANK
FINANCIALS & ASSUPTION
Source: Eastwind/Company
Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Interest Income 15155 21995 27183 31198 38490
Interest Expense 8589 13969 17516 18974 23716
NII 6566 8026 9666 12224 14775
Change (%) 31.2 22.2 20.4 26.5 20.9
Non Interest Income 4671 5487 6551 6922 6922
Total Income 11238 13513 16217 19146 21697
Change (%) 25.3 20.2 20.0 18.1 13.3
Operating Expenses 4860 6100 6914 7940 9330
Pre Provision Profits 6377 7413 9303 11206 12367
Change (%) 22.4 16.2 25.5 20.5 10.4
Provisions 3033 3189 4124 2402 2461
PBT 3345 4224 5179 8804 9906
PAT 3340 4224 5179 5826 6934
Change (%) 34.8 26.5 22.6 12.5 19.0
Balance Sheet
Deposits( Rs Cr) 189166 219988 252614 290506 334081
Change (%) 34 16 15 15 15
of which CASA Dep 77758 91412 112100 124917 143655
Change (%) 18 18 23 11 15
Borrowings( Rs Cr) 26268 34072 43951 51266 58956
Investments( Rs Cr) 71788 92921 113738 129873 149354
Loans( Rs Cr) 142408 169760 196966 228481 265037
Change (%) 36 19 16 16 16
Valuation
Book Value 460 549 708 813 942
CMP 1404 1146 1304 1174 1174
P/BV 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.2

Infosys
Reasons behind the weak outlooks:
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 4.5 30.4 53.1
Rel. to Nifty 0.8 21.6 49.4
Current 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 15.94 15.94 16.04
FII 40.65 39.93 39.55
DII 15.35 16.16 18.28
Others 28.06 27.97 26.13
Financials
3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 13026 12965 0.47 10424 25.0
EBITDA 3258.9 2836.9 14.88 2677 21.7
PAT 2874.9 2406.9 19.44 2369 21.4
EBITDA Margin 25.0% 21.9% 310bps 25.7% (70bps)
PAT Margin 22.1% 18.6% 350bps 22.7% (60bps)
14
1 year forward P/E
Rs, Crore
Stock Performance
View and Valuation: Infosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with
revenue momentum kicking, and the NRN invisible hand in play. Further announcement of
strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, better deal win, consistent client
traction and revenue momentum would help the company to bridge the gap with rivals
such as TCS. At a CMP of Rs 3358, it trades at 16x FY15E earnings. We retain our “BUY”
view on the stock with a target price of target price of Rs 3760 (revised from 3910).
Impact on Estimates: We expect that the recent developments of Infosys could adversely
impact our sales guidance by 2-3% and earnings growth guidance by 3-4% for FY15E. We
downgrade our revenue growth guidance from 16.5% to 13.7%.
(3) Challenges with skill mis-matches: Infosys CEO anticipated order cancellation from
some of its clients because of its skill mis-match issue. Infosys has also seen some
challenges with skill mis-matches between client’s needs and what company could have
provided; this has led to slowdown in ramp-ups.
(1) Poor response from Retail and CPG verticals: In the retail segment (contributes 25%
of sales) a sluggish sales over the last 2 months, severe winter, and aggressive discounts
by retailers have led to lesser profitability. In addition, this has led to capping of additional
spending in CY14. Some retail clients have specific issues leading to categorization of
spends. We expect this is not specific for Infosys, it could be viral for the Industry growth.
(2) Portfolio related concern in Manufacturing: Recently, Manufacturing segment
(contributes 22% of sales) has adversely impacted by the reduced PC sales and capex
spending in networking and this will have an impact on revenue growth in this segment.
Revenue contribution from manufacturing segments stands larger than other peers.
52wk Range H/L 3847/2190
Nifty 6493
192799
1240448Average Daily Volume
"Recovery delayed, but not denied"
CMP 3358
Target Price 3760
Company update BUY A gloomy outlook by Infosys; however, the best is yet to come.
Addressing an Investor Con Call, Infosys management has expressed its cautious view on
earnings outlook as well as clients spending for near term. They indicated that FY14E
would be a year of lower earnings than NASSCOM guidance followed by FY13 and FY12.
The company’s knee jerk has not associated with single factor; these are partly company
specific and partly external factors. We expect, this adverse scenario would impact its
earnings growth for next couple of quarters.
BSE Code 500209
NSE Symbol INFY
■ The company might only be able to meet the lower end of its annual revenue growth
guidance of 11.5-12% for FY14E, and they are expecting weakness in client spending
throughout the current quarter (4QFY14E).
■ Slowdown in client sentiment in 4QFY14E could be remain continue in the next couple
of the quarters of the next financial year. We expect that 1HFY15E could be a part of
worrisome.
Key facts from Investors Con Call
Previous Target Price 3910
Upside 12%
Change from Previous -4%
Market Data
"BUY"
14th March' 14

15
Why the best is yet to come?
Recent weak guidance given by Infosys management is not an episode of close out. The
company is working on various strategies to rediscovering its past sparkle days with
revenue momentum kicking.
Already, company has initiated to work closely with clients and focused on building
relationship for deal intake. To maintain margin stability and increase productivity,
company is working efficiently on cost optimization initiative. However, the management
indicated that early signs of sales effectiveness initiative would start showing from
1HFY15E.
Infosys.
We believe that strong demand environment across the industry would offer Infosys
breathing space to tide over reorganization-related challenges. Its strategies on sales
effectiveness and cost optimization initiative could turn the growth story as before.
Now, we are waiting for next earning outlook and guidance by management for FY15E.
Financials
Rs in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Sales, INR 22742 27501 33734 40352 50217.7 57222.3
Employee Cost 12085 14856 18340 22565 28373.0 32330.6
Other expenses 2792 3677 4671 6254 8034.8 9441.7
Total Expenses 14877 18533 23011 28819 36407.8 41772.3
EBITDA 7865 8968 10723 11533 13809.9 15450.0
Depreciation 905 854 928 1099 1367.7 1558.5
Other Income 982 1211 1904 2365 2566.1 2861.1
EBIT 7942 9325 11699 12799 15008.3 16752.7
Interest Cost 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
PBT 7942 9325 11699 12799 15008.3 16752.7
Tax 1681 2490 3367 3370 4202.3 4690.7
PAT 6261 6835 8332 9429 10806.0 12061.9
Growth-%
Sales 4.8% 20.9% 22.7% 19.6% 24.4% 13.9%
EBITDA 9.3% 14.0% 19.6% 7.6% 19.7% 11.9%
PAT 4.6% 9.2% 21.9% 13.2% 14.6% 11.6%
Margin -%
EBITDA 34.6% 32.6% 31.8% 28.6% 27.5% 27.0%
EBIT 34.9% 33.9% 34.7% 31.7% 29.9% 29.3%
PAT 27.5% 24.9% 24.7% 23.4% 21.5% 21.1%
Expenses on Sales-%
Employee Cost 53.1% 54.0% 54.4% 55.9% 56.5% 56.5%
Other expenses 12.3% 13.4% 13.8% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5%
Tax rate 21.2% 26.7% 28.8% 26.3% 28.0% 28.0%
Valuation
CMP 2615.1 2765.1 2865.0 2400.0 3358.0 3358.0
No of Share 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4
NW 23049.0 25976.0 31332.0 37994.0 45642.7 54345.7
EPS 109.1 119.0 145.1 164.2 188.2 210.1
BVPS 401.7 452.4 545.6 661.7 794.9 946.5
RoE-% 27.2% 26.3% 26.6% 24.8% 23.7% 22.2%
Dividen Payout ratio 25.1% 45.9% 24.0% 45.1% 22.9% 20.6%
P/BV 6.5 6.1 5.3 3.6 4.2 3.5
P/E 24.0 23.2 19.7 14.6 17.8 16.0

V- V-Guard Industries Ltd.
Key Points :
CMP 453
Target Price 525
Previous
Target Price
475
Upside 14%
10%
BSE Code 532953
NSE Symbol
1,349
59,460
Nifty 6,493
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute (4.5) (9.0) 5.0
Rel. to Nifty (5.6) (13.6) (6.7)
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 65.5 65.5 65.5
FII 18.5 17.4 14.5
DII 2.2 2.5 3.5
Others 13.8 14.5 16.4
About El Nino
16
1 yr Forward P/B
V-GUARD
Stock Performance-%
Forecast updates strengthen El Nino fears
Company update
52wk Range H/L 390/570
Market Data
• In its update on Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said factors that lead to an El
Nino were now increasingly visible. "The tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed
substantially over the past few weeks
• Indian Met officials are treating the reports with caution, saying that though chances of an El
Nino developing around mid-2014 are growing, predictions made at this stage suffer from low
accuracy.
• US agency NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which updated its forecast on Wednesday, said
temperature anomalies associated with El Nino had strongly increased since the end of January.
Further, NOAA said there was a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the summer or autumn
this year.
(Source: Times of India/ Eastwind Research)
El Nino — 'the boy' in Spanish
— is an unusual warming of
sea surface waters in eastern
and central equatorial Pacific
associated with changes in
wind patterns that impact
weather in many parts of the
world. It generally has an
adverse effect on the Indian
monsoon.
"Colling Gun……..."
Buy
• On recent interview management expect a sales growth of around 10% in 4QFY14 on back of
strong sales growth of 12-12.5% in January and February month of 2014.
• Last financial year for Q4 company had very low margins because of two reasons, higher ad
spend and one-off items. From that level, we expect there would been improvement this
quarter and margin would be somewhere around 8.51%.
• Company expect the ad spends in the current quarter are likely to be Rs. 11-12 crore (2.85%
of expected revenue in 4QFY14E), compared to 14 crore (3.7% of 4QFY13 revenue) which
should in our view aid in the margin expansion in current quarter.
• The El Niño visibility in 2014 would be the another factor for the revenue growth of
companies like Vgaurd. As Vguard product portfolio consist of 65-70% summer facing in nature
and we believe that the strong summer expectation in 2014 and low base of FY14 would lead a
revenue growth of at least 18% in FY14E.
"Buy"
4th Mar' 14

17
Outlook / Valuation
(Source: Company/ Eastwind Research)
V-Guard Industries Ltd.
Strong Balance Sheet
•Total Debt has been reduced significantly as on 3Q FY14 to Rs. 117.7 crore, compared to Rs. 157
crore as on 3Q FY13. Working capital loan reduced to Rs. 77.1 vrore from 134.0 crore and whereas
term loan icreased to Rs. 40.6 crore from 22.9 crore.
• Working capital cycle on a TTM basis improves by 9 days to 76 days. Mainly Led by 15 days
reduction in debtors. Management has also guided for improvement in net working capital cycle
by 5- 10 days every year going forward. This will further improve its ROCE and ROE going forward.
• Strong cash generation in 9M. FY14 Cash from operations at Rs. 90 crore in 9M FY14 as
compared to Rs. 14.5 crore for full year FY13
EBITDA % and PAT % Q-o-Q
• We expect margin to expand in 4QFY14E on back of lowered ad spends and non hoping of one-
off items which hit the p/l in past year of same quarter. However we restrict our EBITDA
expectation for FY14E to 8.9% against management guidance of 9-9.5% due to significant
reduction in copper prices both in dollar terms as well as in rupee terms as company value its
inventory on mark-to-market basis but apart from that there are no other issues we could see.
• The El Niño visibility in 2014 would be the another factor for the revenue growth of companies
like Vgaurd. As Vguard product portfolio consist of 65-70% summer facing in nature and we
believe that the strong summer expectation in 2014 and low base of FY14 would lead a revenue
growth of at least 18% in FY14E.
• At the current CMP of Rs. 452, the stock is trading at a PE of 17.0x and 13.4x of FY14E and
FY15E. The company can post RoE of 24.0% and 24.1% & EPS of Rs. 26.4 and Rs. 33.6 FY14E and
FY15E. We believe that from current level the growth would pick pace expected acceleration of
growth momentum, given the strong outlook of summer going forward. We revised our rating to
“Buy” from “Hold” with a revised price target of Rs. 525.
Revenue Q-o-Q
Business segments, market size and existing competition in segment
Industry Size
(crore)
V-Guard
(Share FY13)
Production
Model
Key Players
Stabilisers 2100 201 100% Outsourced Bluebird, Capri, Logicstat, Premium, everest
PVC Cables 7000 289 100% In-House Havells, Finolex
LT Power Cables 6000 64 100% In-House Havells, Finolex
Motor Pumps 2000 152 90% Outsourced Crompton Greaves, Kirloskar, CRI, Texmo
Water Heaters 800 72 90% Outsourced A.O.Smith,Racold,Bajaj,Venus,Crompton
Fans 5000 57 90% Outsourced Crompton,Bajaj Electricals,Havells, Orient
UPS 3500 42 100% Outsourced Numeric,APC,Emerson
Digital UPS 5500 73 100% Outsourced Microtek, Luminous, Su-Kam
Solar Water Heater 300 26 100% In-House Tata BP-Solar

18
Key financials
V-Guard Industries Ltd.
PARTICULAR 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E
Performance
Revenue 454 727 994 1360 1523 1752
Other Income 1 2 2 4 5 6
Total Income 456 728 996 1364 1528 1758
EBITDA 50 73 94 110 136 158
EBIT 43 65 84 99 119 141
DEPRICIATION 7 8 10 11 12 15
INTREST COST 5 11 17 20 21 15
PBT 40 55 69 82 102 132
TAX 14 16 18 19 27 33
Extra Oridiniary Items NA NA NA NA NA NA
Reported PAT 25 39 51 63 79 100
Dividend (INR) 10 12 12 12 12 12
DPS 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0
EPS 8.5 13.1 17.0 21.1 26.4 33.6
Yeild %
EBITDA % 11.1% 10.1% 9.4% 8.1% 8.9% 9.0%
NPM % 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2% 5.7%
Earning Yeild % 9.6% 7.8% 9.2% 4.8% 5.8% 7.4%
Dividend Yeild % 4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
ROE % 18.0% 22.7% 24.1% 24.1% 24.0% 24.1%
ROCE% 13.8% 16.2% 21.2% 19.4% 22.1% 21.7%
Position
Net Worth 141 172 211 261 328 416
Total Debt 81 139 109 165 125 115
Capital Employed 222 311 320 427 453 531
No of Share (Adj) 3 3 3 3 3 3
CMP 89 168 186 435 452 452
Valuation
Book Value 47.4 57.6 70.6 87.6 109.9 139.5
P/B 1.9 2.9 2.6 5.0 4.1 3.2
Int/Coverage 8.4 5.7 4.9 4.9 5.6 9.4
P/E 10.4 12.9 10.9 20.7 17.1 13.5

TATA STEEL Ltd.
336
401
440
19%
-9%
500470
32710
22897
6493
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute -9.3 -4.5 -3.0
Rel. to Nifty -16.4 -14.7 -14.2
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14 Critical Debt Level
Promoters 31.4 31.4 31.4
FII 16.1 13.6 13.2
DII 25.4 26.1 26.3
Others 27.2 29.0 29.2
Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14
Net Revenue 36736 14.4 0.2 32107 36645
Depriciation 1522 4.0 5.4 1463 1444
Interest Cost 1108 7.3 3.9 1032 1067
EBIDTA% 10.9 290bps 80bps 7.0 10.1
OPM% 6.8 430bps 70bps 2.4 6.1
NPM% 1.4 370bps (110bps) -2.3 2.5
(In Crs)
19
Odisha Project could provide further upside in long-term: The Company aims to make
value added steel products at the new facility in Odisha (3mtpa) where the blended
realizations could be potentially higher than existing products by 2015. We believe timely
clearance for expansion of iron ore mine is critical for the plant. The company's Odisha
plant is highly automated and will require fewer employees/ton compared to its
Jamshedpur facility.
NSE Symbol TATASTEEL
On the back of a consistent operational improvement at the company’s European
operations We are positive on the stock in long run .However, on the back of ongoing
capacity expansion, the gross debt is expected to increase from 66074 crore (FY13) to
76919 crore (FY14E) and 77543 crore (FY15E).
In our view, unlike Karnataka and Goa, Odisha is very critical for the Indian steel industry.
We estimate Odisha iron ore production in FY13 stood at 62MT (accounting for ~45% of
India’s production).
1 yr Forward P/B
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Stock Performance-%
52wk Range H/L 435/195
Nifty
Tata Steel reported a good set of Q3FY14 numbers, and positively surprised by the
EBITDA/tonne of Tata Steel Europe (TSE). The company reported a consolidated net
income from operations of Rs. 36735.8 crore for the quarter, higher by 0.2% QoQ and
14.4% YoY.In Q3FY14, Tata Steel India’s Steel deliveries stood at 2.1 MT while TSE
deliveries stood at 3.2 MT and South East Asia at 1.09MT. In Q3FY14, TSI reported
EBITDA of Rs.2936 crore while TSE reported an EBITDA of Rs.860 crore. On a consolidated
basis, consolidated steel sales stood at 6.4 MT. EBITDA/tonne of Indian operations came
in at Rs. 14183/tonne while that of European operations came in at US$ 43/tonne
Result Update BUY
CMP
Target Price
Upside
BSE Code
Tata Steel is a blue chip stock and is available at a very cheap valuation. With the
European crisis behind us, US economy getting stronger and better outlook for Indian
economy on the expectation of stable government at the Center, We feel Tata Steel may
have price appreciation. valuing the financial performance We recommend Buy on the
stock at a medium term target price of Rs.401.
The consolidated EBITDA of Tata Steel came in at Rs. 4006.5 crore (EBITDA margin of
10.9%) , primarily on the back of operational efficiencies realized at its European division
while the ensuing consolidated PAT came in at Rs. 503.2 crore. The company incurred
capex to the tune of Rs.3900 crore in Q3FY14 and Rs.12300 crore in 9MFY14 wherein
majority of capex has been incurred for Kalinganagar project.
Market Data
"BUY"
14th March' 14

Business Outlook
TATA Steel India
Rupee depreciation is helping to restore balance in the market
Tata Steel Europe
Recommendation
20
TATA STEEL
Indian Turnover and Realization
South East Asia Operation
Construction sector outlook remains positive in the region, hence showing a positive
signal for steel.
Indian Steel Deliveries
Indian Steel Deliveries
Southeast Asia Steel Deliveries
The ministry of coal deallocated two of TATA coal blocks at pachmo and Kotre
Basantpur. Tata steel appealed in the high court for this concern and waiting for the
hearing of high courts hearing on 26th march.
Sentiment has improved; though sectors like construction and auto continue to be
under pressure.
Liquid steel production improved further 1% QoQ to 3.91m tons. Sales volumes
however declined 8% QoQ (+5.6% YoY) to 3.19m tons due to seasonal factors leading to
increase in inventories by 300kt to 2.6m tons.
Operating leverage helping EBIDTA margin to improve.(EBIDTA /ton increased 72% to
Rs.273.)
EU steel demand expected to show signs of gradual recovery in Q4 (+3.3%) from a low
base and could translate into a recovery in end user sectors in 2014. TSE will ramp up
production from currently operating facilities. TSE expects to liquidate inventories in
4QFY14 leading to sales volumes surpassing production.
Southeast Asia Turnover and Realization
The political uncertainty still continues in Thailand with no clear solution at sight.
However, the business is focusing on customer relationships and service levels to drive
performance.
Europian Steel Deliveries
Europe Turnover and Realization
At current market capitalization of Rs. 23444 Crores, the stock is trading at a forward P/B
of just 0.9. Tata Steel is a blue chip stock and is available at a very cheap valuation. But if
we look at its historical stock performance, in the past three years it had continued to
trade between 0.6 to 1.9 P/B range. After bottoming out in August 2013 at a stock price of
just under Rs. 200, Tata Steel stock have more than doubled in the past few months. Since
January 2014, the stock had corrected slightly but still it is available at a low P/B (very
much closer to the lower end of its P/B range). With the European crisis behind us, US
economy getting stronger and better outlook for Indian economy on the expectation of
stable government at the Center, We feel Tata Steel share price may have some more
price appreciation left given the improvement in financial performance and Outlook. We
recommend Buy on the stock at a medium term target price of Rs.401.

Global Up & Downs
21
TATA STEEL
One year Stock Performance
One year LME Steel Price
Financials
China's industrial output rose 8.6% in the first two months of 2014 from a
year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, missing
market expectations for a 9.5% rise.

V- Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd.
Key Points :
CMP 76
Target Price 105
NA
Upside 38%
0%
BSE Code 531431
NSE Symbol
116
13,645
Nifty 6,518
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 1.5 44.2 72.4
Rel. to Nifty (6.0) 31.5 57.8
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 45.0 44.9 44.9
FII 0.0 0.0 0.0
DII 9.9 10.5 10.5
Others 45.2 44.7 44.7
22
1 yr Forward P/B
Stock Performance-%
Market Data
Company Profile
Shakti is a manufacturer of stainless steel submersible pumps and motors ranging from 0.5 HP to
255 HP used in domestic, industrial, irrigation, and fire-fighting and located at Pithampur
Madhya Pradesh. Company is the first five star rated pump manufacturer in India. In addition to
submersible pumps ,company also producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal pumps, Pressure
booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps. The company is mainly focused on the
export market and sup-plies its products to around 50 countries, such as US, UK, Turkey, Spain,
Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Australia, Sri Lanka, etc. Nearly 58 per cent of its revenues
are from exports. Of the balance 42 per cent of domestic revenues, 60 per cent come from
supply to farmers, 20 per cent from domestic demand, 12 per cent from government institutions,
and the balance 8 per cent from various industrial sectors.
Industry Structure and Development
The Indian pump industry is estimated to be Rs. 8000 crores in 2012-13. It is likely to grow at 8%
and expected to reach Rs. 18000 crores by 2017-18. The market demand is driven by
infrastructure based spending, urbanisation, growth in manufacturing activity, refurbishment &
upgradation and overall increase in the population, insufficient rains and falling water tables have
led to demand for improvement in hydraulics and pump efficiency. The rising cost of oil has
positively influenced the demand for energy conservative pumps and pumps driven by renewable
energy sources. There will be strong demand for pumps from developing countries like China and
India due to industrialisation and investment in water and power segments. The developed
nations propose to repair and upgrade their old water infrastructure. This will lead to good
replacement demand for pumps in developed countries.
"Turnarround Counter………..."
Buy
38/88
Company update
SHAKTIPUMP
• The company was the first to get 5 star rating for energy efficiency for its products from BEE.
In addition to submersible pumps, company also producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal
pumps, Pressure booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps etc. Recently company
introduced pumps working with solar power.
• In next three years company incline to achieve sale revenue of Rs. 600 crore with the net
margin of 9-10%.
• Company is planning to increase the Branch Network to 30 and Dealer network to 3 fold in
coming few year. Further, Company have plans to register our presence in all BRICS, G20 and
European Union and in other growing countries in coming years.
• On valuation front shakti pump is available at a single digit PE and EV/EBIDTA of 5.6x/4.1x
and 4.7x/3.8x of its FY14E/15E estimates. In a volatile market, a company available at single
digit valuations certainly looks up for grabs.
• Pledging of shares by promoters is the only reason for some concern.But ,since its financial
performance is improving quarter over quarter ,I don’t expect much issues from this
angle.Moreover pledge is not with any NBFC but with one of its bankers - Axis Bank.
52wk Range H/L
"Buy"
13th Mar' 14

23
Revenue Q-Q (In Crores)
(Source: Eastwind Research)
(Source: Eastwind Research)
Operating Profit Q-Q (In Crores)
To drive its domestic growth, Shakti has already strength-ened its marketing team and domestic
dealer network to 650 from 192 just two years back. Though this renewed focus should help
generate revenues for Shakti, the new product portfolio isn’t a unique one and is already
manufactured across the country. Thus Shakti seems to be a late entrant in these products and
therefore one will have to wait and watch the kind of growth it posts in these segments. Besides,
there is a huge unorganised market on the domestic front which firstly eats into the market share
(according to the management, Shakti’s market share is 3 per cent in the overall pump industry i.e.
includ-ing the unorganised market) and sec-ondly, it reduces the pricing power of the organised
players, thus impacting realisations and margins. However, Most Governments are insisting on the
use of Star-rated pumps wherever it is subsidising their purchase on account of higher energy
efficiency. With labour getting scare and expensive, there is a greater preference among
agriculturist to work with branded models that promise a higher uptime, circumventing the need
to invest in submersible pump extraction, repair or replacement. The result is that the market
share of the country’s unorganised sector has steadily declined from 95% to 80%; the performance
of the organised sector growth over the unorganised provides the industry optimism.
Valuation :
Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd.
Reasons of laggard performance :
At current price of Rs. 75, the stock is trading at P/E of 5.5 x for FY14E and 5.0 x the FY15E.
Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 13.6 for FY14E and Rs. 18.7 for FY15E. Considering management’s
aggressive expansion in production capacity and marketing network, I believe company can
deliver good growth in coming years. Further, we expect the company to benefit immensely from
the subdued steel prices currently. We expect the benefit to flow in for the next coming quarters
as well. We recommend a "Buyrating on stock with price target of Rs. 105
Having said that, there are reasons we believe this scrip may not perform as per the expectations
on the bourses. First and foremost, one should note that Shakti is in a business domain that has
low entry barriers and the products can be easily manufactured. Currently, Shakti manufactures
only steel sub-mersible pumps and though it positions itself as an energy-efficient pump
manufacturer, there are other players too who manufacture such energy-effi-cient pumps.
However, the company is increas-ing its product line by adding boost-er pumps, mono-block, and
open well pumps to its portfolio. “Shakti is installing a new 65,000 unit per annum capacity for
booster pumps at a cost of Rs 35 crore, which is being funded through a combination of debt (Rs
25 crore) and internal accruals (Rs 10 crore). This expansion is expected to come on stream and
start generat-ing revenues in coming periods
Outlook :
It is one of the fastest growing companies from this sector .From Rs.41 Cr sales in 2006 it reached
a top line of Rs.210 Cr in 2013. Its export thrust and improvement in India’s rural economy is
expected to drive further growth .Company is targeting a turnover of Rs.600 Cr in next three years.

24
(Source: Eastwind Research) (Figures in crore)
Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR
2011A
9M
2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
Performance
Revenue 135 192 209 270 338 422
Other Income 1 1 7 7 7 7
Total Income 136 193 215 277 344 429
EBITDA 25 31 30 41 51 63
EBIT 22 27 25 34 43 55
DEPRICIATION 3 4 5 7 7 8
INTREST COST 6 9 12 14 14 15
PBT 17 18 20 26 36 47
TAX 3 4 3 6 8 10
Reported PAT 13 14 17 21 28 37
Dividend 2 2 2 2 2 2
EPS 10.8 9.1 11.0 13.6 18.7 24.1
DPS 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
Yeild %
EBITDA % 18.4% 16.0% 14.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
NPM % 9.9% 7.2% 7.8% 7.5% 8.3% 8.6%
Earning Yeild % 20.6% 19.5% 25.5% 18.0% 24.6% 31.8%
Dividend Yeild % 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
ROE % 20.5% 15.9% 15.5% 16.3% 18.5% 19.5%
ROCE% 9.2% 8.2% 8.8% 10.0% 12.2% 13.7%
Position
Net Worth 65 87 109 128 154 189
Total Debt 81 83 82 80 80 80
Capital Employed 147 170 191 208 234 269
No of Share 1 2 2 2 2 2
CMP 52 47 43 76 76 76
Valuation
Book Value 52.6 57.3 71.3 83.7 101.1 123.9
P/B 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6
Int/Coverage 3.6 2.9 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.6
P/E 4.9 5.1 3.9 5.6 4.1 3.1

Narnolia Securities Ltd
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email: research@narnolia.com,
website : www.narnolia.com
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