An overview of the Chinese space program as of Feb 2009.

1. Beyond The Final Frontier II
The Rising Dragon
Feb 2009 – Capfalcon.com – Nadir Belarbi
Outside the Circle
Up to date, and by chronological order, only 3
countries: Russia (1961), The US (1962) and China
(2003) have been able to launch humans into space.
Five additional entities have Satellite launch capabilities: Japan, Israel, Europe (through
France), India and recently Iran. Iran joined the club last 2nd of February 2009; when it
launched the small Omid communications satellite aboard a Safir 2 rocket. Outside the circle
and despite other established space nations, the Middle Kingdom is quickly spreading its
wings.
Countries with Satellite Launch Capabilities
China - : The Rising Dragon
The Dragon space history is not recent. After Russia and the US, the China National Space
Administration (CNSA) is the third nation that successfully launched the April 24, 1970 a
first satellite, Mao 1, on a Long March 1 rocket. Several observation and telecommunication
satellites were launched in the following decades.
China accomplished a major milestone in 2003, after demonstrating its manned mission
capabilities. Five years later, astronaut Zhai Zhigang conducted the first space walk or EVA
(Extra-Vehicular Activity) the 28th of September 2008 as part of the Shenzhou 7 mission.
China is aggressively catching up with the two world
leaders; Russia and the US. It ended 2008 with 11
successful launches a new record for launches in a single
year. A major achievement compared to the 15 launches
operated by the US during the same year, a nation with
obviously more capabilities and a larger spatial
experience than China. The new US administration has
indeed a diametrical opposed policy compared to China.
While the Dragon declared that space was a priority, the
US administration is more conservative, aiming low
Astronaut Zhai Zhigang back to expenses and no major breakthrough.
earth after his EVA,
the 28th of September 20

2. China is now aiming the Moon with a possible manned mission around it before 2015.
The influx of foreign currencies thanks to the globalization and their foreign trade surplus
during the last years, have fueled the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) with a fresh
supply of money. The current $500M budget is very likely to be understated as many other
metrics in the Chinese economy.
The low profile stratagem seems to be the rule in the rising Dragon strategy to trigger a
stronger surprise effect "à la" Sun Tzu.
A report issued last year by Paris-based Euroconsult, "World Prospects for Government
Space Markets", appears to confirm this hypothesis, stating that the China National Space
Administration's (CNSA) current budget is about US$1.3 billion, up 6% from 2007.
From a size point of view, 200,000 people are working for the Chinese Space agency versus
nearly 17,000 for NASA. The Chinese have very talented people and they the capacity to
launch very large scale and complex projects.
Indeed, China has already launched a
remarkable number of research, weather
and surveillance satellites and is now
planning to launch by 2015 its own Global
Positioning System (GPS). Moreover, the
October 24, 2007, Chang'e 1, an un-
manned lunar orbiter was successfully
launched at Xichang Satellite Launch
Center and other launches are expected in
2010 and 2011. A Moon Rover is even
expected by 2017.
Satellite "Yaogan V" launched with a Long March-
The dragon likes to surprise its 4B rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center
competitors and this firework of dates and in north China's Shanxi Province, Dec. 15, 2008.
schedule is probably masking other dates
and objectives.
The 28th of January 2009, China began to work on an Antarctic station more than 12,000 feet
(4093 m) above the sea level on the continent's highest icecap. The perfect place to train
astronauts for future Lunar or Martian missions. From a Geopolitical point view, will the
Moon replace at the long term the African strategy of Beijing?
Ouyang Ziyuan, head of the first phase of lunar exploration, was quoted on government-
sanctioned news site ChinaNews.com describing plans to collect three dimensional images of
the Moon for future mining of Helium 3: "There are altogether 15 tons of helium-3 on Earth,
while on the Moon, the total amount of Helium-3 can reach one to five million tons."
Even if technically feasible, one could cautiously question the pertinence of alleviating
million tons of the satellite that governs some important Earth mechanisms. The hundred of
hours of Apollo missions that I had the opportunity to study show for sure that the Moon
manned exploration is a very complex and costly task that would require immense budgets to
develop a large-scale permanent and sustainable Moon colonization. Apollo 17 crew spent
less than 8 hours on the lunar surface, the current record.
The International Space Station build up started in 1998 and is not yet finished after a decade
and over $200B spent despite its proximity to earth and the collaboration of nearly 16

3. countries. Building a permanent base on the Moon will certainly requires more important
means and logistics. Officially the Chinese are aiming to send the first manned mission to the
Moon in 2024 but things could happen earlier. Depending on the economy and the success of
their different missions, the Chinese could plant their national flag into the lunar surface
before the US comeback planned in 2020.
The Chinese are also planning to have their own space station in orbit around the Earth, a step
forward in this direction. As stated by the former NASA administrator, M. Griffin, the current
Chinese Space Program resembles the Gemini US program that NASA ran between 1965 and
1966. These ten flights helped the US to master the Space Walk, Rendez-Vous and other
techniques that were crucial for a lunar mission. But the Moon is a "Deja-Vu" and China is
now targeting Mars and the launch of an unmanned probe in October 2009 on top of a
Russian launcher. Despite its endemic secrecy on its own space program, the Chinese Space
Agency is planning to collaborate with several international space agencies. Beijing need to
learn more and transfer technology at a faster pace.
Much of this "know how" directly or indirectly inspired by the West has granted China with
an International class launcher reliability; Beijing didn't experience any launch failure since
1996. Many critics of the Chinese policy and space program may be right in pointing these
shortcuts but one thing is sure; the Chinese are working day and night to achieve these
objectives and that's a sufficient reason to respect and be inspired by the rising dragon
motivation.
But the Chinese race for space is not done solely for a national pride purpose, space will grant
the rising Dragon with the means to control and improve its communications, research and
military programs. The paramount of this "tour de force" was done last 11th of January 2007
when China destroyed a weather satellite using a ground-based medium-range ballistic
missile to destroy a weather satellite.
The worldwide acceleration of the space orbital activity is the sign that the space exclusivity
to some world powers will quickly disappear in the next decades. Will this be the chance to
shift the phenomenal spending of the Iron-Triangle from Earth to Space? Hopefully, the new
space race with China will reduce the incentive of producing other weapons and triggering
wars but rather focusing on the Astropolitical vs. Geopolitical issues that the presence on the
Moon of these emerging regional powers will create.
Life is about priorities and the budget spending in the next decade will define who will keep
its "Most innovative nation" status.
Sun Tzu was right, you can't fight all your enemies at the same time but you can choose the
first one to fight. The Chinese seem to have chosen to tackle innovation and energetic
independence while the West is still wandering in central Asia, desperately trying to secure
vanishing oil, energy of the past and financing a costly presence draining its finances.
The descendants of the Dragon ( ) know that if they will be the first coming back to
the Moon and/or walking on Mars, their prestige as the new super power will be final and
unalterable.
Not far from China, another emerging regional power is dreaming of lunar voyages and
Martian adventures. With an immense talent and engineer’s reservoir, the secular India is on
the raise, no longer competing against a sleeping Western world but against the flames of the
flying dragon.

4. Nadir Belarbi received an Engineering degree from the University of Science and Technology of
Oran, Algeria (1993), a Master Degree in Networks and Telecommunications from Paris V University
& Sup Telecom Paris, France (1994), studied 3 years of studies and research on Intelligent Networks
during a PhD program (1997) and received an Executive MBA from the Chicago University, Booth
Graduate School of Business, USA (2008). He has worked for IBM, Air France, Groupe Danone and
Dannon US. He is currently (2012) an IT Program Director at The Canadian National (CN).
Nadir Belarbi’s research has spanned a large number of disciplines, emphasizing information
technology and telecommunications with a focus on emerging technologies. As a manager with multi-
cultural skills speaking five languages, he worked in an international environment where he specialized
in the coordination and lobbying of global organizations.
His political and social experience ranges from heading the corporate work council to participating in
political and geopolitical organizations and think tanks. With a major interest in Intelligence,
Technology & Energy roles in Geopolitical, Military & Security issues, he is now managing a
LinkedIn group and a Portal (capfalcon.com) on Business, Innovation & Geopolitics.