Frost & Sullivan Presentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting

1. Frost & Sullivan Workshop:
Global Mobility and Megacities
Presentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting
April 19, 2011

2. Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011
• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and
Technology Planning 40 min
• Video BMW short films: 15 min
• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min
• Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new
opportunities and business models 20 min
• Team Presentations 30 min
• Summary 05 min
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3. Table of Contents
Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of
Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
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4. Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
Urbanization Infrastructure Geo-socialization
New Business Models Power to the Middle Class E-Mobility
and Gen Y
Digital World (high speed
broadband, Wireless, etc) Health, Wellness and Well-being High Speed Rail
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5. Table of Contents
Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
Urbanization & Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of
Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
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6. Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions
and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS
City With A Minimum Cities Combining With Suburbs To The Corridors Connecting Two
Population Of 10 Million Form Regions. (Population over Major Cities or Mega Regions
10 Million)
EXAMPLE: Greater London EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Guangzhou in China (Population
Pretoria (forming 120 Million)
“Jo-Toria”)
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7. Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded -
Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities
1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities
Living areas
expanding well
outside of the
peninsular loop in
Creation of the historic centre and districts San Francisco
2000s Suburbanisation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road • Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres
becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for
2015s Network City “double income, no kids” households.
cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.
• Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while
manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third
belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.
• „Green wave‟ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls
mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).
Third suburban area and cities along the highways cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and
created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
working areas in third and second belt.
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8. Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts
Smart Cities  Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility
Smart Diamond to define Smart city
„S”
Governance
„S‟ Citizen „S‟ Business
„S‟ City
Planning „S‟ Buildings
Source: Frost & Sullivan
These 3 elements Will define the „Smart‟
„S‟ Mobility Mobility of the future
„S‟
Energy
„S‟ ICT
„S‟ Energy  Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure
„S„ City Planning  EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion
Charging
„S‟ Information Communication & Technology  Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet
Technologies
Legend: City‟s Infrastructure City‟s User community City‟s Green Ecology

9. SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafs
from Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City
SMART MOBILITY SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE
• 39% commute by bicycle
• 400+ Km of dedicated cycle
route
• To familiarize electric bicycle
taxis
• 200 charging stations by 2012;
• 10,000 EVs By 2015 • 1200 homes to feature smart meters • ITO tower is testing the use of smart
• Encourage car sharing and energy management systems. meters and energy efficient appliances to
• 14% reduction in energy use is cut energy consumption.
expected of this smart meter project • Design aesthetics of building absorb
• Cheaper parking slots at natural light and air from the environment
P+R public transit stations to
park cars and board trains SMART PUBLIC SPACE
thereby keep artificial lighting and HVAC
use to minimum.
x • Yearly reduction of parking
spaces and increase of tariffs
inside the city.
***** SMART COMMUTE to WORK
• 30 kmph speed limits on 80% • Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrow
of roads inside the city - shopping street downtown is to feature
makes bicycles faster by at • 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce
energy efficient street lighting,
least 50% on a A-B trip. home to work car miles by 10% by 2012.
• Sustainable tram stops with solar
• Incentive/free bicycles to employees
powered displays and billboards
• 154 shore power connections • Free & protected bike parks at offices to
• Solar powered garbage bins with built
to charge inland cargo vessels encourage cycle use.
in compacters will be installed on this
and river cruisers to be • Work from home if necessary
street
installed by 2012

10. “Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to
Convergence of Competition
Energy/Infrastructure
Players
• T&D Technology
• Power Electronics
• Renewable Energy
• Integrated Distribution Management
• Substation Automation
• AMI-Enabled Metering
• Etc.
• IP Networks • Building Automation
• Digital Technology • Demand-Side Management
• Analysis Software • Connectivity of devices
• Wireless Communication • Monitoring and Sensing
• Technology Integration • Smart Grid Integration
• Network Security • Etc.
• Etc.
Automation/Building
IT Players Control Players
Source: Frost & Sullivan.

11. Gen Y and the Rise of Middle Class

12. World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15
to 34 – Important Customer of the Future for City Cars
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global),
2020
2010 2020
2
Around 37% of this Age 7.55 Billion
Group Will Live in India
1.8
6.83 Billion and China Alone 1.2
0.5
1.6
0.5
1.4 0.2
Population (billion)
2.1
2.3 0.1
1.2
0.2
0.1
1 0.5 0.6
0.3
0.8
2.2 0.2 0.6 2.6
0.6 0.1
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.5
0.2
0.4
0.1
1.8 0.1 0.2 0.3
0.2 0.4 1.7
0.4 0.3
0.1 0.2
0.1 0.1
12
.
0.1
21
.
26
.
0 17
.
North America Latin America, Europe Africa India C hina Rest of Asia
C aribbean and
Oceania
0-14 Years 15-34 Years 35-64 Years 65 Years and Above
Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
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13. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and
Lifestyle
Personalisation and Techno Savvy and Civic and Demanding and
Individualisation Connected 24 X 7 Environmentally Impatient – “Fast
Friendly and the Furious”
Gaming Gizmos
Personalised Search and Instant Text Messaging
Eco- Transport
News
Smart Phones
Social Networking Profiles
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags
Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat
Facebook-on-the Move
Personalised Products
Speed Oriented Gaming
Paperless Banking
(Car Racing)
Microblogs

14. Rise of the Middle Class in 2020: Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone
The middle class in Russia
is defined as households
with an annual income
between $6000 and
$30,000
140 Million
700 Million
400 Million The middle class in China is
defined as households with
an annual income between
$8,000 and $70,000
120 Million
The middle class in India is
defined as households with
an annual income between
$5,000 and $220,000
The middle class in Brazil is
defined as households with
an annual income between
$586 and $2,530
15 Million

15. Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation Policies
Congestion , low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging
economies will have a major impact on car mobility
Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo
Bus Rapid
2011 2011
Transit Lanes
Metro/Subway 2011
Congestion
Planned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future
Charging
Parking Cuts
Road use 1 Week 1 week 1 Week
Yes Future
Charging/Ban Day Ban Day Ban Day Ban*
EV/Hybrid
Incentives
Bicycle Lanes
CAFÉ
Euro 3 Euro 4 25%
Emission 27.5mpg.
Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 by Euro 4 Euro 5 by reduction
Standard 34.1 mpg
2012 2011 by 2015
by 2016
Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentive
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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16. Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Trend
Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Growth (Global), 2009 - 2025
Population Per capita 2025 Cars per 1000 - Cars per 1000 –
(Million) (USD) 2009 2025
Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340
New York 25.9 67,591 230 220
London 14.4 57,746 400 340
Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270
Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122
São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335
Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350
Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72
Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155
Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250
Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475
Guangzhou 11.8 36,332 43 173
Seoul 9.7 43,860 239 320
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17. Agenda
Key Trends in Urbanization
Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of
Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
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18. High Speed Rail to Come to US
Overview of 13 high-speed rail corridors across 31 states.
Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025)
California to connect Bay
Area with LA through an
ambitious $42bn program
with construction starting
in 2 years
Impact to Personal
Mobility and Auto
Industry
1. Air travel will diminish
rapidly between the
high speed rail link
cities
2. Train operators could
start offering
integrated transport
e.g. Car sharing
3. Will take congestion off
highways, people will
drive less long distance
4. Attractive cities for car
sharing
5. Small city car sales will
grow in these cities
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19. Car Sharing in North America
4.4 million members Forecast by 2016. Around 88% of NA Car Sharing Members
are in the United States across 26 Car Sharing Programs
Evolution of Megacities: Car Sharing in North America (US and Canada), 2009 - 2025
2016 Potential
More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues
More than 4.4 million members
More than 72,000 vehicles in car sharing
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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20. Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the Market
MIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-
modality travel split
Telecom
Operators
Transport The Concept of a Dynamic
Operators Transport Solution
Rail Bus
Integrating Different Modes
Under a Single Entity to
make Personal
Online Mobility Car sharing
Transportation Easy and
Booking Simple
Agencies:
Long Distance Mobility
Mobility Bikes
Integrator
Short Distance Urban Mobility
Technology MIs will start exploiting the
Solutions Provider Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0
Payment
Engine Internet service to offer
Technology Evolution
mobility-based
applications (apps) on smart
MOBILE phones.
2.0
WEB
2.0
Source: Frost & Sullivan
*The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose
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21. Case Study - Mu by Peugeot (Mobility Integration by OEM)
Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof
Evolution of Megacities: Case Study – Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009
Generate Working Concept
income from the
stock of vehicles
Travel Driving sitting at
Services dealerships Pay subscription charges
Behavior Create an account to use
and Rewards this scheme to get charging units
Earn mobility (reward) Hire services or products
Weekend by points that can be used for based on balance in
Services Peugeot select services charging units
Personal
Transport
Solutions
Current Points of Sale
Decrease spending
Vehicle by using the same Brest
Accessories infrastructure and Rennes
staff
Nantes Paris
Servic Hiring
Lyon
e Units Units London
 Partnering with travel agencies,  Micro-mobility solutions such
Bristol
driving schools amongst others. as bicycles and scooters.
 Booking services on train,  Rental cars and vans.
airplane travel and hotels.  Vehicle accessories such as Expected to be expanded in key EU cities
 Discounts, prizes and member roof-boxes, cycle racks and in 2010-2011
advantages. child seats. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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22. Agenda
Key Trends in Urbanization
Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of
Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
M5A9-18 24

23. In Future, There Will be Shift from Cities Designed around
Cars to Cars Designed around [Mega] Cities :
OEMS to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms
Evolution of Megacities: City Cars (Global), 2009 - 2025
• ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city  Multiple Variants – Pixo, Note and Cube
• Compact Vehicle length and width: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm
• Low emissions: 1-litre engine, Electric vehicles in future
• Tight turning circle of 4.5m and power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city
traffic
• Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear seats, customizable setting
• Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013.
• Electro-mobility – Zero emission vehicles (lithium ion battery with about 35 kWh capacity )
• Electric driveline - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.
• Lighter drive –Carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) passenger cell and aluminum chassis.
• Tata Nano to be launched as City Car in EU and NA (low cost car in India)
• Compact Vehicle length and width: 3099mm x 1,495mm
• Low emissions; sub 1 liter engine (624cc). Electric vehicle in future.
• Turning radius: 4m.
• Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
Logos are only for descriptive purpose. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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24. Characteristics of The Sub-A Segment
Microcar Market: Characteristics of Sub-A Segment (Europe), 2010
Technical Specification Sub-A Segment A-Segment
Reference Model
Gordon Murray TATA Motors Mitsubishi
T.27 Nano EV i-MiEV
Length (mm) 2,500 3,090 3,475
Width (mm) 1,300 1,487 1,475
Height (mm) 1,600 1,585 1,610
Power Capacity (kW) 15-40 47
Seating Capacity (nos.) 1-4 4
Maximum Speed (kmph) 75-140 (Average Top Speed = 110) ~130
Maximum Driving Range (km) 100-160 (Average Driving Range = 130) ~160
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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25. Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning
Opportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs
Evolution of Megacities: Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning (Global), 1950 - 2025
Vehicle length of
CO2 less than 80 less than 3500mm
gm/km vehicles
Limited boot space
Voice recognition and more head and
technology leg room
Start Stop System for
Panoramic roofs
frequent stop in traffic
Customised and Lightweight
personalised comfort construction
functions
Autonomous parking Low speed collision
assist avoidance for enhanced
safety and pedestrian
protection
Simple and easy to use
HMI
3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V
and V2X communication
Ergonomically designed
comfortable seats for
long commuting hours Facebook on wheels,
Internet in cars
Turning radius <4.3m to
drive in congested streets Navigation systems with
route guidance and traffic
information
Smart vehicle
access Source: Frost & Sullivan
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26. E-Mobility
Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the
Globe in 2020 and over 60% of these will be sold in Large Cities
Evolution of Megacities: E-Mobility (Global), 2009 - 2025
Total 30 million – Total 10 Million –
2 Wheelers (2020) 4 Wheelers (2020)
Sanyo Enable XM 3000 Electric Moped The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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27. Connected Mobility
Smart Connectivity Between Home and Office and from Personal Device to Car with
Cloud Character will Become Increasingly Important in Car of the Future
Internet Radio
Cloud Computing
Smarter Home
EV Infrastructure
Infotainment and Mobile Phone
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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28. Future IT Mobility Solutions for “Integrated” and “Interoperable”
Transport Infrastructure:
RTI: Ticketing, EVs IT:
scheduling, CCTV Smart grid/energy
and incident Ticketing/AFC: management,
Connectivity: opportunity for built, management, Innovative payment, billing systems,
bought & beamed in, providing a UTMC integration integration with RTI comms & cloud
hybrid open architecture service and
network comms
V2V: ANPR, DSRC, LMS: Signalling,
vehicle positioning infotainment,
diagnostics, energy
management &GPS
Car Sharing: technology to
locate, reserve and unlock
nearest car on mobile,
provide info via apps/GPS
Congestion
Charging: technology
Commercial Vehicle migration from ANPR –
Telematics: Vehicle/driver Tag& Beacon – GPS,
management, and on board
Source: ETSI and advanced payment
tracking, computer, navigation and info on mobile
Source: ETSI
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29. Mega-City App Store
From Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value Added
Development
Evolution of Megacities: App store from Megacity Vehicles (Global), 1950 - 2025
News – Online Remote Vehicle Integrated
3D Navigation
Car Sharing radio news, Horn/Light Telematics –
EV Billing with Video
Vehicle Access RSS feeds Flash – Security eCall/bCall/Toll
Support
reader App, ing
Multimodal Social Diagnostics –
Transport – Remote Car Real time
Networking – TPMS, Interior Pre-
apps for real Starter/ Traffic
e.g. Twitter, service/oil Condition App
time Security Information
Facebook, notifications,
bus/transit
Car/Van Vehicle Access
IP TV – live tv Real Time
Pooling – car –converting Charging Dynamic POI
using internet, Video Traffic
and van pooling phone in to Station Locator Finder
eg. .SPB TV, Feeds
apps, smart key
Car Sharing –
Choosing, Internet Radio Emergency
Reservation e.g. Pandora, Vehicle Locator State of Charge Turn by Turn
Assistance –
and locating RadioTime Monitoring App Navigation
App
cars,
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Vehicle Access/
Mobility Entertainment Telematics Electric Vehicles Navigation
Security
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30. Future of Urban Mobility – Conclusions and
Recommendations
Impact on
More than 60% Personal Mobility
of the population
will live in cities
by 2025
Multimodal Mobility
Over 30 Mega-
cities, 110
Smart/Sustainable E - Mobility
Cities and Mega
Corridors
Small and Micro Mobility
New integrated
urban mobility
models will Shared Mobility
emerge including (Car Sharing/Pooling)
car sharing
Last Mile Connectivity
OEMs to develop
new Mega City
vehicles
New Technology in Cars
Mega City vehicle (e.g. Internet Radio)
s will have new
“Urban”
technologies V2V & V2I Communication &
Wireless Connectivity
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31. Thank you!
Urban Mobility Tracker, Q1 report page 35

32. Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011
• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and
Technology Planning 40 min
• Video BMW short films: 15 min
• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min
• Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new
opportunities and business models 20 min
• Team Presentations 30 min
• Summary 05 min
36

33. Objectives of the Workshop
• Aim : Evaluate new business models and “out of box” business
opportunities for your industry in relation to MC & Future Mobility
• Methodology :
• Brainstorm within your group for 20 minutes using the Optopus
• Capture the results in a flip chart
• Short-list 2 or 3 opportunities and use the Option Evaluation Grid
to conduct the scoring
• Nominate a leader to present your group findings
• Please present using “weather forecast” presentation tips (5
minutes, top level and most relevant points)
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34. The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) – Brainstorming
Tool for Generation Strategic Market Opportunities
Market
Sectors
Geography Customer
Segments
Divestment Value
or OPTIONS Creation
Outsource
Value
Delivery
Acquisition
Alliance
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35. The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) –
Brainstorming Tool
The Option Octopus (Optopus) is a tool to provide a more structured approach to the brainstorming of
strategic options. The Optopus assumes that there are 8 main categories of growth option into which any
ideas can be mapped.
As such, the Optopus enables the mapping of options under the 8 key headings and is therefore a simple
framework around which growth options can be brainstormed and listed.
• The 8 „arms‟ of the Optopus:
Geography – Options for growth via expansion into new geographical regions
Market Sectors – Options for growth via expansion into new market sectors
Divestment/Outsource – Change of business direction (e.g. outsourcing production)
Acquisition – Options for growth via merger or acquisition activities
Alliance – Options for growth via implementation of strategic alliances/partnerships
Value Delivery – Growth via the development of new channels to market
Value Creation – Growth via the provision of additional services etc. (up-sell/cross-sell)
Customer Segments – Options for growth via targeting new customers or applications
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36. Strategic Option Grid - Tool for Evaluating Options
Options Option1 Option 2 Option 3
Criteria
Strategic
Attractiveness
Financial
Attractiveness
Implementation
Difficulty
Uncertainty
and Risk
Acceptability to
Stakeholders
The Strategic Options Grid is a detailed tool that is ideal for analyzing and prioritizing mutually exclusive strategic options.
This tool assumes that the overall strategic attractiveness of an option can be evaluated by looking at 5 distinct variables: market attractiveness;
financial attractiveness; implementation difficulty; risk/uncertainty; and strategic fit/stakeholder attractiveness.
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37. BMW Films - Mobility
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38. Contacts
Robert Duronio Brian Drake
Consulting Director Director, Business Development
Automotive & Transportation Automotive & Transportation
P: 703.870.5801 P: 248.836.8260
Email: robert.duronio@frost.com Email: brian.drake@frost.com
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