Swechha Shukla has presented a paper "London Colder than Antarctica" - Unusual Trends of Global Cooling. It drawn attention on changes in northern hemispheres and successfully conveyed that snowfall and avalanches are the results of global changes and not local incidents. Vernacular Newspaper "Danik Bhaskar" has covered her paper with photograph on 18th February, 2010.
London Colder than Antarctica" unusual Trends of Global Cooling- Swechha Shukla
1. “London Colder than Antarctica” Unusual Trends
of Global Cooling
Presented By:
Mrs. Swechha Shukla , The Times of India & Mr. Prasoon
Shukla, Prtyancha Society
(Research paper read in Feb, 2010, at International Conference on
“Land-Water Resources, Biodiversity and Climate Change” at BSSS
College, Bhopal)
2. Abstract
To identify the major causes of massive snow fall in northern hemisphere in the year
2009-2010 from Canada to China and to newer regions, this investigative study has been
conducted to track the causes and stakeholders aspects of global cooling and to further
discuss the response. This research work is ushered by Mrs. Swechha Shukla, The Times of
India, Indian Newspaper & Mr. Prasoon Shukla, Prtyancha Society (an NGO), in collaboration
with, Dr Divya Tiwari and Dr Ashutosh Tiwari, Faculty in Centre of Excellence, Crain field
University, U.K. Outcomes of the study, on grounds of globally accepted indicators and trends
of climate change, precisely establish the relationship of global warming and its subsequent
upshot into global cooling. Objective of the study is to explain the logical coherence between
Global Cooling done by nature and Global Warming caused by Modern society, and to present
a scenario of climate changes in the years to come. It will also academically confirm and
suggest strategies opted locally by communities to protect climate, and biodiversity. This
paper tried to present all the factors of global cooling and suggest stakeholders’ response,
which it can cover in 1 month of study and 5 member team.
3. CONTENTS
1. Background of the problem
2. Purpose of the study
3. Significance of the study
4. Research Question
5. Hypothesis taken
6. Objectives of the study
7. Methodology
8. Demographics; Different Perspectives, Ongoing Research and Global Scenario
9. Hypothesis Testing
10. Key Findings
11. Bibliography
4. Introduction and Background of the Problem
2009 was another year of global cooling, which saw numerous low temperature and high snowfall
records. The Dutch canals for the first time in 12 years got free zed, record cold came to Al Gore's
home town and ironically a blizzard dumped snow on the Copenhagen convention where world
leaders met to try and stop global warming. It was so cold that even the BBC was forced to ask,
what happened to global warming? As Climate gate would reveal, Intergovernmental Penal of
Climate Change(IPCC) scientists had been hard at work hiding evidence of global cooling. Yet the
observational evidence cannot be ignored.
Purpose of the study
1. This study will help people and organizations to learn the global scenario of global cooling and identify
relationship between global warming and global cooling.
2. Sensitization communities to reduce the intensity of extremes of global warming and further global
cooling.
Significance of the study
The study encompasses the change in climate and environment of major countries globally and also provides
an exploratory overview to learn the gravity of their local practices in global warming, changing climate and
disturbing biodiversity and further response of nature in balancing the same by taking over the control from
human order.
Communities will be made aware of their practices and consequences thereof, its will also help them to
develop new system and practices to establish balance between nature and modern developmental path.
5. General Government policies and regulations of different countries and international agreements will also
evaluate to learn the strategies opted locally and globally.
Unique practices that communities observing to live with nature will also be discussed. Stakeholder’s
relationship will also be established.
Research Question
“Determining the major indicators signifying relationship between global warming
and global cooling and risk assessment with respect to communities”
This study tries to find out global relationship between global warming by artificial
development and global cooling a nature response and identify relationship to work out an
order of camaraderie.
Hypothesis of the study
There are two hypotheses were taken for the study:
1. Human Beings are the supreme authority of the earth in changing climate, biodiversity
and shape of land and water resources.
2. Nature is only a dependent variable of human actions and no catalyst therein can
control/change its response.
6. 3. Existing theories of global warming for future are align with global scenario of global
cooling.
Objectives of the study
1. Make communities aware globally of nature’s response to global warming.
2. Intensity and gravity of global cooling.
Methodology
1. Qualitative research, where hypothesis is incompletely conceptualized and discussed
during the course of study.
2. The study is exploratory in nature where all the dimensions are tired to be covered to
present the scenario.
Demographics
1. Region for study: Global
7. 2. Communities Profiling: On the basis of
• Country Region
• Climate and Biodiversity
Stakeholders Aspects Account;
Communities changing living pattern Soil Erosion for farming
Greenhouse gases Flaura and Fauna threat
Modern lifestyle and environmental Tribal Population,
degradation Chhattisgarh
Industrial production and global warming Coastal Population,
Use of Natural Resources, oil, mining, Maldives
water and land Food Security
Deforestation ecological balance
Nuclear test political scenario
Global Warming and Cooling Theories
8. In the 1970s there was increasing awareness that estimates of global
temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of those scientific papers considering
climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling,
while most papers predicted future warming. The general public had little
9. awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959
forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from
1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend. (The actual increase in this
period was 29%.) Paul R. Ehrlich mentioned climate change from greenhouse
gases in 1968.By the time the idea of global cooling reached the public press in
the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the
climatological community about carbon dioxide's warming effects. In response to
such reports, the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning in June
1976 that a very significant warming of global climate was probable.
Currently there are some concerns about the possible cooling effects of a
slowdown or shutdown of thermohaline circulation, which might be provoked by
an increase of fresh water mixing into the North Atlantic due to glacial melting.
The probability of this occurring is generally considered to be very low, and the
IPCC notes, "even in models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming
over Europe. For example, in all AOGCM integrations where the radioactive
forcing is increasing, the sign of the temperature change over north-west Europe
is positive."
Physical mechanisms(Theory Of Global Cooling)
Aerosols
Human activity — mostly as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, partly by
land use changes — increases the number of tiny particles (aerosols) in the
atmosphere. These have a direct effect: they effectively increase the planetary
albedo, thus cooling the planet by reducing the solar radiation reaching the
surface; and an indirect effect: they affect the properties of clouds by acting
as cloud condensation nuclei. In the early 1970s some speculated that this
cooling effect might dominate over the warming effect of the CO2 release: see
discussion of Rasool and Schneider (1971)2.
Orbital forcing and Ice Age Cycles
Orbital forcing refers to the slow, cyclical changes in the tilt of Earth's axis and
shape of its orbit. These cycles alter the total amount of sunlight reaching the
10. earth by a small amount and affect the timing and intensity of the seasons. This
mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles, and
understanding of the mechanism was increasing rapidly in the mid-1970s.(The
seminal paper of Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton "Variations in the earths orbit:
pacemaker of the ice ages",
Global Cooling Conferences;
1. 1972 and 1974 National Science Board :The National Science Board's Patterns
and Perspectives in Environmental Science report of 1972 discussed the cyclical
behavior of climate, and the understanding at the time that the planet was
entering a phase of cooling after a warm period.
2. The Board's report of 1974, Science And The Challenges Ahead, continued on
this theme. "During the last 20-30 years, world temperature has fallen,
irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade."
3. 1975 U.S National Academy of Sciences report: "Understanding Climate
Change: A Program for Action" did not make predictions, stating in fact that "we
do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what
determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem
possible to predict climate
The report further stated: The climates of the earth have always been changing,
and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future
changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know.
4. 1975 Newsweek article : Titled "The Cooling World", it pointed to "ominous
signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change" and pointed to "a
drop of half a degree [Fahrenheit] in average ground temperatures in the
Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968." The article claimed "The
evidence in support of these predictions [of global cooling] has now begun to
accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with
it."
5. 1980s “Concerns of nuclear winter arose in the early 1980s from several
reports.”
11. 6. Currently, the concern that cooler temperatures would continue, and perhaps
at a faster rate, has been observed to be incorrect by the IPCC. More has to be
learned about climate, but the growing records have shown that the cooling
concerns of 1975 have not been borne out.
Glaciers at British Columbia and Europe
20. USA
Massive rainfall and snow has changed stand still the Washington city and many
parts of USA, Catrina and Rita has devastated the entire life of southern parts of
USA.
21. Himalayan Region
Avalanche in Himalaya region from India to Afghanistan has killed many people
in last month. The local manifestation of global cooling scenario.
More than 200 hundred people killed from Kashmir to Afghanistan.
24. Australia
Frequent fire in Australian forest is also affect the climate and ecological balance
and putting biodiversity at risk.
25. Greenhouses gases increasing the face of global cooling earlier only CO2 effect
was studied but replace of gas against petrol as fuel is also causing temperature
to increase.
26. INDIA
India, Chhattisgarh, where forest cover has become shallow and massive mining
have intoxicated water resources and eroded the fertile land, changed the
climate and biodiversity.
27.
28.
29. Maldives
Maldivian Cabinet has conducted a cabinet meeting in sea to gather attention of
international community. Show case the misery of existence of coastal
communities victim of global warming and increase in sea level.
30. Hypothesis testing
The Hypothesis of supremacy of human factors is proven wrong and
nature is capable in taking control for rebuilding climate and
biodiversity.
1. Nature is an interdependent variable which can contribute as
per its overall relationship with climate of the earth and
atmosphere and human factors will remain dependent when all
31. natural factors collectively respond to ecology, atmospheric
balance, climate and biodiversity.
2. In long run, Interdependence of Human factors and Natural
Factors got established and its effect in global warming and
cooling, and we are not having sufficient time to adapt the fury
of nature.
Key Findings
1. No Country wise polices for environment and International Agreements on
Global Cooling.
2. There is no clear cut understanding of dynamic of earth and factored.
3. With respect to time frame “on the ground emergencies are needed to be
understood and addressed at earliest to avoid catastrophic effects
4. Communities living on the edge like Maldives and Hilly regions are the
requiring immediate attention.
32. 5. Drought proofing for south hemispherical regions which are presently
affected with global warming.
6. Massive forestation is required to handhold with natural climate.
7. Evolutionary genetic bottlenecks
8. Drivers and Pressures
9. No Governmental Policies
10.International consensus
11.Community Awareness for taking controllable factors on priority like
forestation, rain water harvesting, proper land use, environmental friendly
green industrial projects,
Bibliography and References
1. Website of Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change.
2. Reports published on respective governmental agencies on countries
quoted.