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The Newsonomics of the
           Digital News Decade
                                             Ken Doctor

               Future Media Forum   New Industry Analyst & Author,
                                            Newsonomics
                  June 19, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                               1
Welcome to the
    Digital News Decade

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  2
12 Laws
                             Updated
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  3
From Mostly
    Print/A Little
      Digital to
    Mostly Digital/
     Some Print

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012

Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  4
Print                         Digital    (‘90s)




                   Print Digital                                           (‘00s)




                Print        Digital                                         (‘10s)




                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                                5
Follow the Money
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  6
In Russia & Worldwide
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  7
Today
                             What is It?
                              5 Truths
                                 &
                               3 Lies

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  8
Truth #1
                              Content
                               Wants
                                 a
                                Fee
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  9
NYT:
               450K subs; $100M+
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  10
From Free
          to
         Paid

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012

Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  11
From Free
       to (Also)
         Paid

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012

Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  12
And Loves
                         Many Fees
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  13
Truth #2
             For News(paper)
            Companies, Reader
            Revenue Will Be #1
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  14
The Revolution of
                  Reader Revenue
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  15
We Sell Content
                           Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                    16
Why?
          Print advertising is in death
                     spiral

         Digital circulation can boost
         circulation revenue @10%+
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  17
U.S. Dailies
                            80/20

      Advertising/Circulation
            Old Split
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  18
U.S. Dailies Rapidly
           Pointing Toward 50%
                         New York Times: 52%, up 4% in 1 year
                                   Boston Globe: 47%
                            Minneapolis Star Tribune: 43%
                              Dallas Morning News: 38%
                         Time Inc: 43%, up 5% from 3 years ago




                            Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                     19
Global Dailies*
                             66/34
                                    UK: 48%
                                    US: 29%
                                  EMEA: 30%
                                   Asia: 61%
                                  Japan: 72.5%

    * Outsell Data
                          Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                   20
Global Dailies
              Circulation Revenue


                         $30 Billion
    * Outsell Data        Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                   21
Truth #3
                         Digital First is
                           Becoming
                              the
                           Standard
                           Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                    22
Dropping 4
   Days a Week,
   Reinforcing
     Sunday

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012

Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  23
Daily Cuts in Louisiana, New York, California, Kansas, North
                    Carolina, Michigan, Alabama



        The 7-Day Daily is
           Going Away                       .

         New Orleans, Birmingham, Mobile, Grand
     Rapids, Ann Arbor. Media General cut smaller
   seven-day papers in North Carolina and California
  to three days a week. GateHouse Media did the same
                       in Kansas.

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  24
Johnston
       Press
     5 Dailies
    Now Weekly

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011

Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  25
The Digital First
                Make-Over



                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  26
John Paton’s
                         Outsourcing



                          Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                   27
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  28
As We Enter Into
              New Age of Many
               News Products

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  29
Chicago Tribune
                   20 Ebooks Planned
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  30
“Mining
                            the
                         Archives”
                          Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                   31
Paywalls
                                      2012

                                subscription
                                abonnement
                                 suscripción
                                  подписка
                                  assinatura
                              サブスクリプション



                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  32
Membership
                      Arrives
 L.A. Times, Boston Globe, The Day, a small
            daily in Connecticut
    The idea: Deepen the relationship to
      subscribers, especially All-Access
                 subscribers
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  33
Truth #3
                                     It’s a
                         5-Screen
                                  Future
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  34
Desktop/Laptop
                                Smartphone
                                  Tablet
                               Connected TV
                              Connected Auto
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  35
2nd Screen Thinking
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  36
All Access is the
                   Business Model



                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  37
Truth #5
             Commerce is About
                           Offers
                Not “Advertising”
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  38
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  39
Lie #1
                                  It’s
                                  All
                                 About
                                 Mobile
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  40
“Mobile”
                            is
                         Obsolete
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  41
Mobile Ramp
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  42
It’s About Serving
  Customers Anywhere
     & Everywhere

                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  43
The Sixth Screen?
                   Holograms
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  44
Lie #2
                         Newspapers
                           Will
                          Recover
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  45
Lie #3
    Google (Amazon,
   Facebook & Apple)
  Want to Be Your Friend
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  46
GAFA
  Grows Stronger
    Every Day
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  47
Google
                               Apple
                              Facebook
                              Amazon
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  48
Digital Display

                         The Coming
                  Google/Facebook
                     Duopoly
                          Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                   49
Global 2011:
               $80 Billion
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
                                               50

Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  50
67%
                 Google/Yahoo/Microsoft/
                 AOL/Facebook Take of
                   Digital Advertising
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  51
Audiences
                     Distribution
                        Devices
                   Selling Channels
                   Customer Touch
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  52
Dominance
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  53
How Do Media Make
             Friends?
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  54
We’re Writing New Formula
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  55
Welcome to the
      the Beginning of
    Digital News Decade
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  56
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  57
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  58
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  59
2020: Telling Stories About
          Daily Newspapers
                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  60
Contact
             kdoctor@gmail.com

              Twitter: @kdoctor

          www.newsonomics.com



                         Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012

Wednesday, June 13, 12                                                  61

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'The Newsonomics of the Digital News Decade' Кен Доктор, ведущий аналитик информационной индустрии

  • 1. The Newsonomics of the Digital News Decade Ken Doctor Future Media Forum New Industry Analyst & Author, Newsonomics June 19, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 1
  • 2. Welcome to the Digital News Decade Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 2
  • 3. 12 Laws Updated Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 3
  • 4. From Mostly Print/A Little Digital to Mostly Digital/ Some Print Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 4
  • 5. Print Digital (‘90s) Print Digital (‘00s) Print Digital (‘10s) Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 5
  • 6. Follow the Money Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 6
  • 7. In Russia & Worldwide Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 7
  • 8. Today What is It? 5 Truths & 3 Lies Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 8
  • 9. Truth #1 Content Wants a Fee Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 9
  • 10. NYT: 450K subs; $100M+ Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 10
  • 11. From Free to Paid Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 11
  • 12. From Free to (Also) Paid Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 12
  • 13. And Loves Many Fees Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 13
  • 14. Truth #2 For News(paper) Companies, Reader Revenue Will Be #1 Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 14
  • 15. The Revolution of Reader Revenue Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 15
  • 16. We Sell Content Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 16
  • 17. Why? Print advertising is in death spiral Digital circulation can boost circulation revenue @10%+ Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 17
  • 18. U.S. Dailies 80/20 Advertising/Circulation Old Split Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 18
  • 19. U.S. Dailies Rapidly Pointing Toward 50% New York Times: 52%, up 4% in 1 year Boston Globe: 47% Minneapolis Star Tribune: 43% Dallas Morning News: 38% Time Inc: 43%, up 5% from 3 years ago Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 19
  • 20. Global Dailies* 66/34 UK: 48% US: 29% EMEA: 30% Asia: 61% Japan: 72.5% * Outsell Data Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 20
  • 21. Global Dailies Circulation Revenue $30 Billion * Outsell Data Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 21
  • 22. Truth #3 Digital First is Becoming the Standard Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 22
  • 23. Dropping 4 Days a Week, Reinforcing Sunday Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 23
  • 24. Daily Cuts in Louisiana, New York, California, Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan, Alabama The 7-Day Daily is Going Away . New Orleans, Birmingham, Mobile, Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor. Media General cut smaller seven-day papers in North Carolina and California to three days a week. GateHouse Media did the same in Kansas. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 24
  • 25. Johnston Press 5 Dailies Now Weekly Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2011 Wednesday, June 13, 12 25
  • 26. The Digital First Make-Over Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 26
  • 27. John Paton’s Outsourcing Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 27
  • 28. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 28
  • 29. As We Enter Into New Age of Many News Products Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 29
  • 30. Chicago Tribune 20 Ebooks Planned Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 30
  • 31. “Mining the Archives” Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 31
  • 32. Paywalls 2012 subscription abonnement suscripción подписка assinatura サブスクリプション Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 32
  • 33. Membership Arrives L.A. Times, Boston Globe, The Day, a small daily in Connecticut The idea: Deepen the relationship to subscribers, especially All-Access subscribers Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 33
  • 34. Truth #3 It’s a 5-Screen Future Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 34
  • 35. Desktop/Laptop Smartphone Tablet Connected TV Connected Auto Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 35
  • 36. 2nd Screen Thinking Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 36
  • 37. All Access is the Business Model Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 37
  • 38. Truth #5 Commerce is About Offers Not “Advertising” Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 38
  • 39. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 39
  • 40. Lie #1 It’s All About Mobile Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 40
  • 41. “Mobile” is Obsolete Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 41
  • 42. Mobile Ramp Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 42
  • 43. It’s About Serving Customers Anywhere & Everywhere Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 43
  • 44. The Sixth Screen? Holograms Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 44
  • 45. Lie #2 Newspapers Will Recover Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 45
  • 46. Lie #3 Google (Amazon, Facebook & Apple) Want to Be Your Friend Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 46
  • 47. GAFA Grows Stronger Every Day Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 47
  • 48. Google Apple Facebook Amazon Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 48
  • 49. Digital Display The Coming Google/Facebook Duopoly Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 49
  • 50. Global 2011: $80 Billion Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 50 Wednesday, June 13, 12 50
  • 51. 67% Google/Yahoo/Microsoft/ AOL/Facebook Take of Digital Advertising Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 51
  • 52. Audiences Distribution Devices Selling Channels Customer Touch Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 52
  • 53. Dominance Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 53
  • 54. How Do Media Make Friends? Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 54
  • 55. We’re Writing New Formula Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 55
  • 56. Welcome to the the Beginning of Digital News Decade Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 56
  • 57. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 57
  • 58. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 58
  • 59. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 59
  • 60. 2020: Telling Stories About Daily Newspapers Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 60
  • 61. Contact kdoctor@gmail.com Twitter: @kdoctor www.newsonomics.com Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2012 Wednesday, June 13, 12 61