A look population growth patterns in the Garden State, at the history of state planning, and at what the new State Strategic Plan could be if implemented well.

1. NJ Final State Plan: A Key to
Economic Stimulus or Sprawl?
New Jersey Future
Peter Kasabach, Executive Director
March 10, 2012
New Jersey Land Conservation Rally
Brookdale Community College, Lincroft, Monmouth County

2. Smart Growth research, policy and advocacy organization
Development that protects open space and farmland, revitalizes
communities, keeps housing affordable, and provides transportation choices

3. Economic
Model of
Perpetual
Growth

4. Decennial
Census Population % # New Jersey has grown in
1790 184,139 population every year since
1800 211,149 15% 27,010
1810 245,562 16% 34,413
we started counting.
1820 277,575 13% 32,013
1830 320,823 16% 43,248
1840 373,306 16% 52,483
But our borders have
1850 489,555 31% 116,249 never grown.
1860 672,035 37% 182,480
1870 906,096 35% 234,061
1880 1,131,116 25% 225,020
1890 1,444,933 28% 313,817 •Between 1850-1930
1900 1,883,669 30% 438,736 growth averaged 30% and
1910 2,537,167 35% 653,498 just over 400,000 people
1920 3,155,900 24% 618,733 per decade.
1930 4,041,334 28% 885,434
1940 4,160,165 3% 118,831
1950 4,835,329 16% 675,164
1960 6,066,782 25% 1,231,453 How do we manage growth?
1970 7,171,112 18% 1,104,330
1980 7,365,011 3% 193,899
1990 7,730,188 5% 365,177
2000 8,414,350 9% 684,162
2010 8,791,894 4% 377,544

5. Decennial
Census Population % #
1790 184,139
1800 211,149 15% 27,010
1810 245,562 16% 34,413 New Jersey has had
1820 277,575 13% 32,013 two very different
1830 320,823 16% 43,248
1840 373,306 16% 52,483 growth patterns.
1850 489,555 31% 116,249
1860 672,035 37% 182,480
1870 906,096 35% 234,061
1880 1,131,116 25% 225,020
1890 1,444,933 28% 313,817 • Center-based growth
1900 1,883,669 30% 438,736
(walkable urban) until the
1910 2,537,167 35% 653,498
1950s.
1920 3,155,900 24% 618,733
1930 4,041,334 28% 885,434 •Then sprawl (driveable sub-
1940 4,160,165 3% 118,831 urban).
1950 4,835,329 16% 675,164
1960 6,066,782 25% 1,231,453
1970 7,171,112 18% 1,104,330
1980 7,365,011 3% 193,899
1990 7,730,188 5% 365,177
2000 8,414,350 9% 684,162
2010 8,791,894 4% 377,544

6. Percentage of NJ’s Population Living at Various Densities,
1930 to 2008
percentage of NJ's population living at various densities
1930 to 2008
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
density (persons per square mile): urban/compact (5,000 and up) suburban (1,500 - 4,999)
exurban (500 - 1,499) rural (< 500)

7. State Planning
1934 Governor Moore
creates temporary state
planning board and first
state planning act passed.

8. State
Planning
• First State Development Plan • Policy Map from current State
Development and Redevelopment Plan.
• GS Parkway, NJ Turnpike,
Round Valley Reservoir, Wharton • From 1986 State Planning Act
and Worthington forests.
• Five Planning Areas.

9. Running Out of Land
1986 1995 2002 2007
"available" ("developable") acres - not
developed, not permanently preserved
or environmentally constrained 1,931,837 1,772,099 1,345,425 991,638
% of state's land area that was developed
/ urbanized 26.0% 28.7% 31.2% 32.9%
Continuing Inefficient Sprawl
1986 - 1995 1995 - 2002 2002 - 2007
newly-developed acres per year 13,998 16,700 16,059
population growth rate 6.0% 5.7% 1.1%
ratio, % change in developed acres to %
change in population 1.72 1.54 5.14

10. Built Out, But Still Growing
2004 = 204 municipalities at least 90% built out
2007 = 271 municipalities at least 90% built out
Built-out places of all
types accounted for
a much larger share
of total statewide
building permit
activity in the 2000s,
after the adoption of
the Rehab Subcode
in 1998, than they
had in the 1990s.

11. Our Goals for State Planning
• Encourage Center-based growth that results in more walkable
communities and more efficient use of land
• Prioritize Redevelopment
• Discourage sprawl and high value greenfield and farm field
conversion
• Cluster Development

12. Our Expectations for the State Plan
• Identify places to grow and places to preserve.
• Align state investments to support these areas.
• Guide the type of development, not just the location.
• Create density patterns that allow transportation choice,
mixes of uses, economic agglomeration and contiguous
preserved and protected spaces.
• Facilitate consistency with the plan between state, county,
and locals.

13. New Jersey Future
Peter Kasabach, Executive Director
www.njfuture.org
.
609-393-0008