1. SOUTH SOUND
FORESTLAND
CONVERSION
South Sound Science Symposium, October 27th, 2010
Luke Rogers, Research Scientist, University of
Washington

2. Integrated Statewide Parcel
Data

3. Washington Forestland
Database

4. Concepts
 What is the rate of forestland conversion?
 What is the current conversion risk?
 What are landowners giving?
 What are landowners getting?
 What are landowners willing to do?
 Concerns
 Opportunities

5. Land Use 1988

6. Land Use 1996

7. Land Use 2004

8. Forest land use change ~1.8% per year
Forest cover change ~0.67% per year
South Sound Land Use Change 1988 - 2004
Mixed
Use
118,000
Urban or
Suburba
n
84,000
Remaine
d Forest
496,000

9. 2037 1901 1885
4012
3833
3389
1636
1662
1763
1978-1979 1988-1989 2001
In/Out of FIA Inventory
National Forest
Reserve
Other Public
Forest Industry
Other Private
Owner Group
Net ownership change
75
48
56
26
51
123
24
50
23
Non-timberland
Right-of-way
Urban
Agriculture
Timberland Ownership Net Flow

11. South Sound Conversion Risk

12. What are Landowners Giving?
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
< 5 miles 5 - 10 miles 10 - 20
miles
20 - 40
miles
> 40 miles
AverageForegoneRevenue
($/acre)
Distance to an Urban Growth Area (miles)
Foregone Revenue for Development by
Parcel Size and Distance to an Urban Area
< 10 acres
10 - 20 acres
20 - 40 acres
> 40 acres

13. What are Landowners Getting?
 Enacted by the Legislature in 1971
 A typical 40 acre parcel in the South Sound
pays $40 in property tax when enrolled in the
DFL program vs. $1,036 at highest and best
use (HBU).
 Add Forest Excise Tax ~$10/acre/year = $440
 FFR costs ~$1,200-$2,000/yr for that same
parcel
 311,000 acres of Designated Forest Lands
 $10 million tax-shift to non-DFL properties =
$0.13/$1,000 = $53/yr for a $400k home

14. Development Compensation?
 Equalize the difference between the market
value of forest lands and the net present value
of managing for timber on those same lands.
 Using 5% discount rate = forest NPV rate
 Contiguous ownerships at least 20 acres,
undeveloped, and parcels are at least 5 acres
 $96m Annuity over $76bn = $1.26/$1,000 =
$500/yr for a $400k home

15. Willingness to Participate
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0 $100 $200 $300
LandownerEnrollment
Incentive Payment ($/acre)
10-year contract 30-year contract

16. Willingness to Participate
Per Acre Payment
Contract
Length
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250
10-year contract 7.7% 17.0% 33.7% 51.3% 65.5% 76.4% 87.1% 93.0% 96.6% 97.5%
30-year contract 0.8% 2.6% 7.7% 17.5% 34.3% 51.6% 66.2% 77.0% 87.6% 93.1%
50-year contract 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 2.6% 7.8% 17.6% 34.6% 52.4% 66.6% 77.3%
Perpetuity 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 2.9% 8.4% 19.3% 35.7% 53.4% 67.4% 78.1%
Expected acreage enrolled, percent available acreage enrolled, total payments
Per Acre Payment
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250
ContractLength
10 1700.83 3384.90 6663.34 10266.55 13118.97 15629.26 17723.22 18994.42 20200.44 20660.94
8.0% 15.8% 31.2% 48.0% 61.3% 73.1% 82.9% 88.8% 94.4% 96.6%
$42,521 $169,245 $499,751 $1,026,655 $1,639,871 $2,344,389 $3,101,564 $3,798,885 $4,545,100 $5,165,234
30 227.19 745.74 1700.83 3565.59 6707.00 10285.30 13216.62 15699.66 17755.08 19014.27
1.1% 3.5% 8.0% 16.7% 31.4% 48.1% 61.8% 73.4% 83.0% 88.9%
$5,680 $37,287 $127,562 $356,559 $838,374 $1,542,795 $2,312,909 $3,139,932 $3,994,893 $4,753,567
50 0.00 14.72 227.19 745.74 1710.95 3593.63 6763.01 10415.67 13368.54 15772.30
0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 3.5% 8.0% 16.8% 31.6% 48.7% 62.5% 73.7%
$0 $736 $17,039 $74,574 $213,869 $539,044 $1,183,527 $2,083,134 $3,007,921 $3,943,076
Perpetuity 0.00 14.72 371.81 822.24 1784.96 3811.77 6964.03 10592.30 13505.95 15965.01
0.0% 0.1% 1.7% 3.8% 8.3% 17.8% 32.6% 49.5% 63.1% 74.6%
$0 $736 $27,886 $82,224 $223,120 $571,765 $1,218,704 $2,118,460 $3,038,840 $3,991,253
Lin, Sonja. (2010) Conservation Easements as a Strategy to Retain Working Forests

17. What are Landowners Willing to
Do?
 Use the forestland owner survey results to
determine, for a watershed, how much income
would be needed to buy continued forest
management
 Used $200/acre/year
 $70 million/year = $0.92/$1,000 = $368/yr for a
$400k home

18. Concerns
 Forestlands are more at risk now than ever
 Loss of infrastructure, aging population, REITs,
population pressure
 DFL program helped to mitigate risk into the
1990s
 DFL program expensive for local communities
 Regulatory takings trump tax incentives 2x - 4x
 Zoning – unintended consequences?
 Wear et al. – between 20 and 70 ppsm Pf drops
from 75% to 25%

19. Opportunities
 93% of small owners willing to commit to 10
year easement for $200/acre/year, 53% for
50+
 Statewide balance of tax incentive programs
rather than at the county level
 PSP Local Improvement/Utility Districts
 Mitigation funds/markets
 Development right markets (not just TDR)

20. Contact Us
Luke Rogers
lwrogers@uw.edu
Andrew Cooke
agcooke@uw.edu
http://www.ruraltech.org/projects/wrl