A Scenario about what may happen in the year 2020 if higher education does not retain enough Latino students.

7. Identify and Clarify Critical Uncertainties Ethnic Majority Ethnic Minority Latino Demographics Priority Focus Minimal Focus College Latino Diversity Programs College Graduate High School Graduate Latino Education Levels Professional Low Skilled Laborer Latino Job Readiness

8. Identify and Clarify Critical Uncertainties Ethnic Minority Ethnic Majority Latino Demographics Define Endpoint What is the question? Define Endpoint Latinos continue to be an Ethnic Minority in the US. What will happen to the US Latino population in the future? Latinos become an Ethnic Majority in the US.

9. Identify and Clarify Critical Uncertainties Minimal Focus Priority Focus College Latino Diversity Programs Define Endpoint What is the question? Define Endpoint Latino issues are ignored or have a negative impact on the recruitment or retention of Latino students. What impact do college programs have in recruiting and retaining Latino students? Latino issues are a high priority and are very effective for the recruitment and retention of Latino students.

10. Identify and Clarify Critical Uncertainties High School Dropout College Graduate Latino Education Levels Define Endpoint What is the question? Define Endpoint The majority of Latino students drop out from High School and do not attend college. What education related paths will Latino students take in the future? The majority of Latino students become both high school and college graduates.

11. Identify and Clarify Critical Uncertainties Low Skilled Laborer Professional Latino Job Readiness Define Endpoint What is the question? Define Endpoint The majority of Latino students are employed as low skilled laborers. What career paths will Latino students pursue in the future? The majority of Latino students are employed as professionals.

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17. Scenario A: Latino Students Graduate/ Priority Support Services “Adelante! (Moving Ahead)”

18. Scenario B: Latino Students Don't Graduate/ Priority Support Services “Atrasados: Moving Backwards”

19. Scenario C: Latino Students Graduate/Minimal Support Services “Olvidado: Forgotten”

20. Scenario D: Latino Students Don’t Graduate/Minimal Support Services “Abandonados: Abandoned”

22. Explore Potential Opportunities NONCONSUMERS Identifier What could happen Signals Colleges and Universities are operating as business as usual. No plans in place to aid Latino students in attaining a degree. Create an identification tool that provides strong support services for Latino students, and a requisite positive graduation percentage. Colleges and Universities improve support services and key programs to support Latino Students. These schools participate in a nationally recognized certification program to indicate their preparedness to support Latino student success.

23. Explore Potential Opportunities UNDERSHOT CUSTOMERS Identifier What could happen Signals Colleges and Universities are providing minimal services and are not seeing success in retention and Latino student degree attainment. Colleges and Universities direct their efforts in engaging Latino students in focus groups to ensure student success. Colleges and Universities provide newly created and refined existing programs/services to ensure Latino student success.

24. Explore Potential Opportunities OVERSHOT CUSTOMERS Identifier What could happen Signals Due to a lack of improvement of services, colleges and universities experience a drop in Latino student enrollment. Students transfer to other institutions with a known track record of Latino student success. Launch a program that clearly identifies institutions that meet specific criteria in ensuring degree attainment.

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27. References Bush, G. (2001, October 15). Executive Order 13230—President’s Advisory Commission on Educational Excellence for Latino Americans. Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, 37(41), 1468. Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018. Georgetown University, Center for Education and Workforce, Georgetown. Gonzalez, J. (2009). Low Hispanic Graduation Rates Threaten Obama's College-Attainment Goal, The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved July 16, 2010 from http://chronicle.com/article/Low-Hispanic-Graduation-Rates/64710/ . Gonzalez, J. (2009). Policy Makers Urged to Think More Broadly About Latino Students, The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved on July 16, 2010 from http://chronicle.com/article/Policy-Makers-Urged-to-Think/49487 . Hernandez, R. (2005). College Latino students: Cultural integration, retention, successful completion (doctoral dissertation). Retrieved June 23, 2010, from ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Mooney, M., & Deborah, R.-D. (2008). Colleges Need to Recognize, and Serve, the 3 Kinds of Latino Students, The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved on July 16, 2010 from http://chronicle.com/article/Colleges-Need-to-Recognize/1660 . Obama, B. (2009). Address to Joint Session of Congress, February 24, 2009. U. S. Census. (2009, July 1). Population Estimates . Retrieved July 17, 2010 from U. S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/NC-EST2009-srh.html U. S. Department of Education. (2010). Fast Facts . Retrieved July 17, 2010 from National Center for Educational Statistics: http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=27

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