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David Humphreys: Opening Session: What is the new 'normal' for mining?
- 1. day 1 – opening session: What is the new ‘normal’ for mining? What is the new ‘normal’ for mining?David Humphreys – DaiEcon Advisors
- 2. GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 Lead sponsors: Media partners: Other sponsors & participating organisations:
- 3. What is the ‘New Normal’ for Mining ? David Humphreys DaiEcon Advisors Presentation to Objective Capital’s Global Mining Investment conference, London, 28-29 September 2010
- 5. Reregulation
- 7. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry
- 9. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry
- 11. OECD composite leading indicators % change USA Eurozone Japan Source: OECD
- 12. OECD industrial production Index of IP, 2005=100 EU USA Japan Source: OECD
- 13. China and India: industrial production Year-on-year % change China India Source: OECD, NBS.
- 14. Composition of global growth World GDP growth %, 5 year moving averages Forecasts Source: IMF
- 15. Developing world share of metal consumption % Sources: WBMS and worldsteel. For steel, data is for 2008, not 2009.
- 17. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry
- 20. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry
- 22. Mining country governance indicators Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators at http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspCountries are rated accordingly to a variety of criteria and then ranked. The numbers shown are the quartiles into which the country falls on the given measure. 1 = first quartile.
- 23. Criticality matrix for the US Source: US National Research Council, 2008
- 25. Growing role of the state in affairs of the industry
- 27. Trade regionalisation Growth in Asian trade Index 2001=100 (exports) Destination of Asian exports Asia World Source: WTO
- 29. Volatile commodity and currency markets
- 31. World’s largest mining companies - By value of mine production in 2008 - Source: Raw Materials Group
- 32. So what happens next?
- 33. Metals prices and exchange stocks Indexes 2000=100 Stocks (r.h.s) Nonferrous metals prices (l.h.s.) Source: The Economist, LME, Comex and SHME. Stocks is a composite index, weighted by value.
- 34. China: fixed asset investment Average annual % growth, nominal RMB terms Sources: NBS
- 35. Steel use per unit GDP Steel use (in t) per $m GDP China RoK Thailand Algeria Slovenia Slovak Rep Austria USA India Colombia New Zealand Norway GDP per capita US$ Source: World Bank and worldsteel. GDP is PPP based.
- 36. Current account imbalances US$ bn Source: IMF
- 37. US trade deficit $ billion sa
- 38. Shares of world GDP % of global GDP (market exchange rate basis) EU USA Japan China Source: IMF
- 39. Shares of world GDP % of global GDP (market exchange rate basis) EU USA Japan China Source: IMF
- 40. What is the ‘New Normal’ for Mining ? David Humphreys DaiEcon Advisors Presentation to Objective Capital’s Global Mining Investment conference, London, 28-29 September 2010
- 41. GLOBAL MININGINVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010 Lead sponsors: Media partners: Other sponsors & participating organisations: