Day 2- Opening Keynote: Emerging Mining Destinations
Session 4: Resource Nationalism
Objective Capital Global Mining Investment Conference 2010
Stationers' Hall, City of London
28-29 September 2010
Speakers:
Opening Keynote: David Hutchins - Grafton Resources
Jaakko Kooroshy - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Stuart Russell - Government of Western Australia
Day 2 - Opening Keynote (Emerging Mining Destinations) and Session 4 (Resource Nationalism)
1. Investment Conferences
GLOBAL MINING
INVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2010
DAY 2 – OPENING KEYNOTE: EMERGING MINING DESTINATIONS
– SESSION 4: RESOURCE NATIONALISM
Opening Keynote: Emerging Mining Destinations
David Hutchins – Fund Manager, Grafton Resources
How are governments responding to the resource crisis
Jaakko Kooroshy – Policy Analyst, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Making your jurisdiction attractive to mining
Stuart Russell – Senior Trade & Investment Manager , Government of Western Australia
● CITY OF LONDON ● TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 28-29 SEP 2010
STATIONERS’ HALL
www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
4. Disclaimer
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Resource Investments Limited (the “Company”). It has not been independently verified and is subject to material updating, revision and further amendment. The
Presentation does not constitute an admission document, listing particulars or a prospectus relating to the Company in any jurisdiction, does not constitute an
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Information contained herein is confidential information and the property of the Company. It and any further information made available to any recipient must be
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Certain statements contained in this document constitute "forward-looking statements". Such forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other
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4
5. Overview
Grafton Resource Investment Limited (‘Grafton’ or ‘the
company’) focuses on developing and realising a small
portfolio of selected assets
The company was formed at the end of 2008, by the
founders of the successful ‘Resources Investment
Trust’, to take advantage of the low valuations of
companies in the resources sector
Grafton engages in an active management style and
will look to encourage consolidation and other
corporate activity.
The company was established as a dedicated
resources based realisation fund. It is a closed-end
fund with a 5 year life. After this period, cash will be
returned to shareholders.
5
6. Overview
Grafton had an NAV per share of $39.05 on the
31st August(1,864,645 shares outstanding)
Grafton has evolved as an incubator in the
resources sector. The company is concentrating
on marshalling assets (approximately $80m) to
develop its portfolio of resource companies to a
stage where they can be:
A. Sold to third parties
B. Listed on a recognised stock exchange
C. Developed so that they are cash generative for
the group
6
7. Investment Case
Through some of its main investments, Grafton has
a net interest in:
A. 1.20bn bbls of oil (250 million recoverable)
B. 33M tonnes of iron ore
C. 220,000 oz of JORC gold resource
D. 23,000 hectares of rare fallen lumber
E. 50% of Bulgaria's largest independent water project
Excluding the top 6 ventures outlined below, the
remaining companies in Grafton’s portfolio are
valued at ~ US$14m, with ~61% listed on a
recognised stock exchange.
7
9. Grafton’s Assets (31/08/2010)
Company Percentage
Madagascar Oil 28.5%
Hydrostroi Bourgas 16.3%
Phoenix Lumber Co. SA 10.3%
South American Ferro Metals 9.1%
Compostela Mining 3.6%
Kolar Gold 3.4%
Other Unlisted Companies 6.8%
All Listed Companies 10.5%
Termed Deposit 5.1%
Net Current Assets 6.3%
Total 100%
9
10. Grafton Resource Investments Ltd
Commodity Breakdown
Commodities Breakdown (31/08/2010)
Other
6%
Precious Metals
15%
Water and Timber
30%
Energy
34%
Base Metals
15%
10
11. Directors and Management
Peter Seabrook – Director
Peter is a graduate of Oriel College, Oxford, and has over twenty years experience as
an investment manager. He joined Fleming Investment Management Limited in 1984
and became a director of Robert Fleming Holdings Limited in 1994. During his
tenure there he was appointed UK chief investment officer. In 1997 Peter moved
to Societe Generale Asset Management in a similar role, and after leaving in 2002 he
held the post of chairman at Ocean Resources Capital Holdings until 2007.
David Hutchins - Director
David has 20 years’ experience as a resources analyst and fund manager. His career
began with the Melbourne Stock Exchange in 1979 and subsequently became an
executive director of M&G Investment Management. He headed the International Desk
at M&G Investment Management from 1995, where he was concurrently responsible for
M&G's investments in the precious metals and commodities sector globally. He was
a founding director of Resources Investment Trust plc at the launch in January 2002
and is a non-executive director of Rivington Street Holdings Plc and a non-executive
director of Australian listed SA Metals Limited.
11
12. Directors and Management
Kjeld Thygesen – Fund Manager
Kjeld is a graduate of the University of Natal in South Africa and has 30 years experience as a
resources analyst and fund manager. His resume includes managing a portfolio of South African
mining companies for African selection trust, working with James Capel and Co. in London as part of
their highly rated gold and mining research team, and manager of N M Rothschild &
Sons' commodities and Natural Resources Department in 1979. In 1987 he became an executive
director of N M Rothschild International Asset management Limited, subsequently co-founding Lion
Resource Management Limited, a specialist investment manager in the mining and natural resources
sector. Kjeld has been a director of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd since 2001 and served as Investment Director
for Resources Investment Trust PLC from 2002 – 2006.
David Cather – Consulting Mining Engineer
David graduated from the Royal School of Mines, Imperial College, and has extensive experience in
the development and management of a wide range of resource projects. He has held senior
executive positions at operational and line management levels with both De Beers and Anglo
American. David is a Chartered Engineer, a member of IoM3, and a Competent Person. He is a
director of Compostela Mining Limited, an exploration company with copper/gold porphyry assets in
the Philippines.
Willie West – Consultant
Former Partner, Potts West Trumbull, Members of the Australian Stock Exchange. Sold to Prudential
Bache 1990. Venture capital investor together with clients in Eastern European start-ups, including
$100 million raise for Hungarian Investment Co. Ltd., in conjunction with John Govett in 1990; the
provision of $500 million of “seed capital” for the development of early stage resources in Eastern
Europe and the former Soviet Union. Latterly a founder of Resources Investment Trust plc and
thereafter the development of a $200 million venture capital portfolio in the resource sector.
12
13. About the Fund
Quoted on the Irish Stock Exchange
All securities are held directly to the order of
the fund by BNY Mellon, which is the
administrator and custodian.
No prime broker or margin facilities.
Sole debt is the convertible loan stock
Portfolio contains 38 stocks, but its value is
heavily weighted towards core development
projects
The top 6 holdings, accounting for ~80% of the
portfolio, are outlined below
13
14. Madagascar Oil (MOL)
Oil exploration company in Madagascar with PSC’s over
two major blocks -Bemolanga and Tsimiroro
DeGoyler & McNaughton and Netherland Sewell have
produced independent assessment of the resources for
Bemolanga and Tsimiroro respectively
Bemolanga contains an estimated resource of 9.8bn bbls
of bitumen (2.5 bn bbls recoverable). Madagascar Oil
owns 40% after farming out 60% to TOTAL for $100m.
Tsimiroro contains an estimated resource of 5.5 bn bbls
of which 0.94 bn bbls classified as “Contingent”. MOL
owns 100% of the field.
MOL therefore has a net reserve of 1.94 bn bbls. Grafton
own 12.71% of MOL and so can be said to ‘have a net
interest in ~ 0.25bn bbls of recoverable heavy oil.
14
15. Hydrostroi Bourgas
Partially built water reservoir near Bourgas,
Bulgaria – a water stressed area
Asset acquired by H-B.
Debt finance being arranged for completion of
dam, water treatment plant and infrastructure
First sale of water anticipated in Q2/11. Annual
volume average 6.5mm3.
NPV12 = €34.6m. Annual free cash flow
estimated at €5m.
On 8x multiple, this gives a FV of €40m.
15
16. Phoenix Lumber Company SA
Phoenix Lumber Company SA (Phoenix) have,
under licence and option, 50,000 hectares of
the hurricane hit North-West region of
Nicaragua, from which they are extracting rare
hardwood timber
Phoenix expects the project to conclude by
2015, with cash returned to investors. Total
cash flow for the project is estimated at circa
$100m
16
17. South American Ferro Metals
South American Ferro Metals (SAFM) has, through its fully
owned subsidiary, acquired the rights to the Ponte Verde
property in Minas Gerais, Brazil
The Ponte Verde property has been partly drilled with the
geology well understood, and contains an estimated 150
Million tonnes + of hematite rich itabirite, grading 39% in
situ, increasing to 65% on beneficiation
A further drilling programme will bring the resource to
JORC standard in 2010
Based on a price of US$ 40 per tonne at the mine gate,
cash costs of around US$ 12.0 per tonne and an output of
3.0 Mtpa, this generates an estimated enterprise value of
US$ 250- 300 million
RTO agreed with ASX listed Riviera Resources
17
18. Compostela Mining
Gold exploration project adjacent to infamous Mt
Diwalwal gold rush area, Mindanao, Philippines
Unique “Operating Agreement” implemented over 950
ha of tribal land
Drilling commenced in Q4/09 which has confirmed
high sulphidation mineralisation associated with gold
and base metals. Initial set of assay results imminent.
Viewed as similar potential to Medusa Co-O Mine –
50km to north. 100kozpa. Market cap of $600m.
18
19. Kolar Gold Plc
Data regarding the Kolar gold fields, located in
southern India, indicate a world class gold asset, with
an estimated resource of ~10Moz Au
Kolar Gold Plc (KG) has a JV with the United Mine
Employees Co-operative Society with the first and last
right to acquire the mining leases and assets of the
Kolar gold fields
Short term cash flow is possible through a low capex
tailings project, and a JORC resource of 10Moz would
be worth over $500m
Kolar is also pursuing a deal with Geomysore Services
India to take a stake in several high potential
exploration projects around the region of Karnataka,
India
Grafton owns approximately 15% of KG
19
21. THE NEW POLITICAL ECONOMY OF RARE METALS
Global Mining Investment Conference
London, September 29, 2010.
JAAKKO KOOROSHY
22. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
INTRODUCTION
The Hague Centre of Strategic Studies (HCSS)
•Independent think-tank providing strategic orientation and
navigation services
•Clients range from national governments, transnational
organizations to private companies & NGOs
•Young, rapidly growing organizations with excellent European
and trans-Atlantic ties
•“Natural resource scarcity”(= political economy of commodity
markets) among key topics
•Focus on the political economy of rare metals with much in-
house expertise, an excellent track-record and strong networks
23. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
SCARCITY: AGE OLD FEAR & FASCINATION
I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his
hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A
quart of wheat for a dinares, and three quarts of barley for a dinares”
24. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
WHY COMMODITIES MATTER AGAIN…
• “new economy” (1995-2001) >> “revenge of the old economy” (2004)
>>“revenge of the old political economy” (2008) >> “new normal” (2009-?)
• Commodities key part of the story, with
• high price levels and strong volatility
• tight markets and supply side constraints
• states and their proxies (SWFs, SOEs, regulatory bodies) as key actors
in markets
• added factor Climate Change debate
Intense politicization and securitization of commodity markets
Commodities as key strategic issue in a multipolar world
Emerging nexus of environmental, economic & security policy
25. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
WHY COMMODITIES MATTER AGAIN...
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0 Base Metals Index
AGRICULTURAL TIMBER
Food
CROPS Energy
100.0
50.0
0.0
26. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN RARE METALS MARKETS
•Rare metals are especially prominent in the resource debate due to:
• Western import-dependence & crucial role of China
• indispensability for high- & green-tech applications
• inelasticity & concentration of supply
• fast-growing & highly volatile demand
This creates supply security concerns and makes (some) metals
into “strategic” resources!
The strategic value & political economy of each metal is
unique, evolving rapidly, and …
27. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN RARE METAL MARKETS
•In response to supply security concerns, importing countries
• designate particular rare metals as “critical”
• actively monitor supply and demand
• create stockpiles & develop domestic supply
• diversify & secure supply
• regulate trade and consumption
•Authorities of exporting countries seek to
• increase profits through taxation, licensing, nationalization
• control valuable downstream industries through preferential supply
or export restrictions
• use rare metals as strategic bargaining chips.
… this can matter greatly for the success of business ventures
and investments in the market for a given rare metal!
28. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
EUROPEAN POLICY RESPONSE TO RARE METALS DEBATE
•Raw Materials Initiative (RMI) led by DG Enterprise & Industry
resulted in the 2008 Communication with focus on non-energy
mineral resources:
•Ensure equal access for European industry globally
•Promote supply expansion from European sources
•Boost resource efficiency and recycling
•Follow-up EU criticality study released June 2010:
•Examines 41 minerals and metals with 14 labeled as “critical”
•Recommends to tailor policy responses for each critical material
•Extensive consultation process has just been wrapped up
• Watch out! A new Commission Communication on latest
developments and the progress of the RMI at the end of this year
29. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
EUROPEAN POLICY RESPONSE TO RARE METALS DEBATE
Source: European Commission, DG Enterprise and Industry “Critical Raw Materials for the EU”
Brussels, 2010.
30. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
COMMISSION RESEARCH INTO RARE METAL SUPPLY CHAIN BOTTLENECKS
EU 2020 strategic targets:
•20% less carbon emissions
•20% energy savings
•20% green energy supply
•The Joint Research Commission (JRC) is examining rare metals supply
chain bottlenecks that might prevent realization of 2020 Targets
•Will list metals that provide serious obstacles to deploying high-priority
energy technologies
•Includes concrete recommendations how to ensure adequate supply
•HCSS, Oakdene Hollins, and Namtec in the lead
•Part of the European policy formulation process, study to be published
Spring 2010
31. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
MEMBER STATE RESPONSES: GERMANY
A driving force behind the EU
Raw Materials Initiative (RMI)
Following ongoing
“Rohstoffdialog”, the German
government is currently finalizing
its new “Rohstoffstrategie”. Key
elements are:
•Close cooperation between various ministries, BGR & corporations, with
a new “Rohstoffagentur” as central actor
•Strengthening of bilateral cooperation with resource-rich developing
countries
•International engagement to lower market distortions and promote
global investments through “ungebundene Finanzkrediete” (UFK)
32. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
MEMBER STATE RESPONSES: FRANCE
•The announced creation of a “Comité pour les metaux strategiques”
(COMES) has been delayed
•Key elements of the plan:
•Exploration for REEs (€ 6 mil.)
• R&D around gallium,
germanium, niobium, PGMs &
REEs (€140 mil.)
•Recycling of rare metals
(€ 250 mil.)
33. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
MEMBER STATE RESPONSES: UK
•Treasury Department
(2008) has promoted laissez-
faire approach
•Earlier criticality study
followed up by a new study
with AEA in the lead,
commissioned by DEFRA
•New UK government yet to
take a stance on the issue
34. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
CONCLUSION: WHERE DOES EUROPE STAND ON RARE METALS?
• EU is stepping ahead with member states’ responses still
fragmented:
•Germany is in the lead
•Strong French response has been somewhat delayed
•UK is still looking to develop a coherent policy
•Compared to US and Japanese efforts to ensure supply security:
•No stockpiling
•No establishment of domestic / Western supply chains for
rare metals
•Little government investments as of yet
This might change very fast!
35. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
SHORT RECAP
•Like other commodity markets, the markets for metals have
become subject to intense politicization and securitization
•In times of the “new normal”, the unique political economy of
each metal market creates specific threats and opportunities for
miners and investors
•Grasping, anticipating and navigating this political economy is
rapidly becoming a key determinant to business success in the
world of mining
•HCSS is a reliable partner in strategic orientation & navigation
36. RESOURCES, STRATEGIES & POLICY
SHORT RECAP
•Questions???
•Please get in touch!
jaakko@hcss.nl
www.hcss.nl
38. Making your jurisdiction
attractive to mining
(while at the same time driving Australia’s economy!)
Stuart Russell
Senior Trade & Investment Manager
Global Mining Investment Conference
London, 29 September 2010 Government of Western Australia – European Office
39. Broad policy objectives in
Western Australia
The policies: Designed to encourage the continued
responsible development of the State’s resource
industries.
Key priorities:
1. To improve the State’s legislative and regulatory
framework
2. To support exploration and development
3. To put an emphasis on safety and sustainability
4. To maximise the benefits from the minerals and
petroleum industries to the Western Australian
community.
40. About Western Australia
Nation’s largest state, covering
one third of the continent.
Population of 2.2 million.
Abundance of natural resources:
minerals, energy and agriculture
Relaxed lifestyle with high quality
infrastructure.
Gateway to Asia
41. World Leader in Mineral and
Energy Production Oil & Gas
Lead/Zinc
Bauxite
Diamond
Iron Ore
Oil & Gas Nickel
Salt
Nickel Tantalum Manganese
Gold
Iron Ore
Chromite
Nickel
Gold
Gold
Iron Ore
Titanium Minerals Copper/Zinc
Oil & Gas Nickel
Perth
Bauxite Coal
Titanium Minerals Tantalum
42. Big State provides wealth of
opportunities
SELECTED WA COMMODITIES
RELATIVE TO WORLD PRODUCTION ENDING
2009, BY QUANTITY
Western Australia’s resource Alumina
production is both world Diamonds
scale and world class Garnet
Gold
Ilmenite
Iron ore
LNG
Nickel
Rutile
Salt
Tantalum
Zircon
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Western Australia Rest of Australia
Source: DMP, ABARE and USGS
43. Top ten export destinations
(2009-10)
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
44. Investor-friendly State
Government
Since coming to office in late 2008, the new State
Government has:
Created a new department to focus on the mining and
petroleum sector
Accelerated approvals relating to mineral titles
Now allows uranium exploration and mining
Welcomes investment in small to large mineral and
energy projects
Implemented an Exploration Incentive Scheme
45. Exploration Incentive Scheme
assists explorers
An $80 million package that provides:
A drilling subsidy to innovative explorers
A stimulus for applied research relevant to exploration
Complete coverage of WA by 400 metre line spacing
airborne magnetic and radiometric surveys
Major gravity surveys and deep seismic lines
New online systems for industry to lodge applications
relating to mineral titles and track their progress through
approvals processes
49. Oakajee Port, Rail and Industrial
Estate – A$10 Billion+ project
“the single most important project for Western Australia’s
economic development over the next 50 years”
Premier Barnett, March 2009.
51. Anketell Port & SIA
This project includes the
development of the Anketell Port
and Strategic Industrial Area (SIA)
to:
Facilitate future mining
development in the Pilbara
Develop a multi user deep
water port and industrial area
that will cater for the project
proponents as well as future
users
The Anketell project will be
managed by a single foundation
proponent – yet to be determined
54. India jumps to largest coking coal importer in 2015
Coking Coal Import Demand (million tonnes)
66
49
53
62
32
34 Japan
Europe 2009 2015 6 8
2009 2015 27
USA
17 2009 2015
CHINA
2009 2015
Korea
76 2009 2015
25
10
5 12
Taiwan
30 Brazil
INDIA 2009 2015
2009 2015
2009 2015
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
55. Perth is an Attractive Base
for Companies and Talent
Shift in corporate influence to the West driven by Perth’s strategic
location - access to natural resources, capital, and a quality lifestyle.
Perth is home to more than a dozen listed companies with market
value greater than AU$1 billion – including Woodside, Shell, BHP
Billiton, Rio Tinto, Chevron, Newmont Mining, Fortescue Metals
Group, Wesfarmers.
It is also home to major petroleum and mineral resources sector
research and development facilities and industry bodies including
the Association of Mining & Exploration Companies.
Since 2007, Perth has become home to 80 more companies. The
total of 783 extends the lead over Sydney (672), Melbourne (362)
Brisbane (183) and Adelaide (95).
Australia was ranked 6th in the 2009 World Quality of Life Index
Source: UWA Committee for Perth Study, September 2009
IMD World Competitiveness Online 1995-2009; Austrade
56. Where to from here?…..
Follow up to obtain information on opportunities in Western
Australia by:
Joining in various conferences & exhibitions –
MPES 2010 Mine Planning & Equipment Selection, Fremantle
1 December 2010 (www.ausiim.com.au)
AJM’s 14th Annual Global Iron Ore and Steel Forecast Conference, Perth
22 March 2011 (www.globalironore.com.au)
Visiting Perth independently or as part of a Business Mission
16-18 December 2010
Follow up with our Office
57. Contact details
Stuart Russell
Senior Trade & Investment Manager
Government of Western Australia
European Office
5th Floor, Australia Centre
Corner of Strand and Melbourne Place
London WC2B 4LG – United Kingdom
Tel: +44 20 7395 0564 | Fax: +44 20 7240 6637
Email: stuart@wago.co.uk
Web: www.wago.co.uk
