When innovators try to envision how people will use their product they often have different ideas on what people want. Products that are of superior technology may fail and inferior succeed, only because the inferior product has some features that people are looking for. In this lecture we look at how new products or technologies get adopted my markets.
We look at the Law of Diffusion of Innovation, which explains how this adoption happens. We also look at what it takes for a new innovation to move from being a visionary idea to a practical product, or crossing the chasm. Finally we explore the hype cycle.
8. Edison’s ideas for the phonograph
1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation
2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people
3. The teaching of elocution.
4. Reproduction of music.
5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons.
6. Music-boxes and toys.
7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc.
8. The preservation of languages
9. Educational purposes
10. Connection with the telephone
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html
16. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
In the early days
In the later days
!
!
The innovators and technology
enthusiasts drive the market
They demand technology
Small percentage of the market
The pragmatists and conservatives
dominate; they want solutions and
convenience
The big market
17. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
In the early days
In the later days
!
!
THEY BUY FOR THE
THEY BUY FOR THE
WHY
WHAT
29. Crossing the Chasm
The
change
in
customers
as
technology
matures
Crossing
the
chasm
–
or
the
Tipping
point
Source:
Geoffrey
A.
Moore:
Crossing
the
chasm
31. What caused the tipping point for the iPod?
Apple
said
it
sold
a
record
22.7
million
iPods,
which
commands
a
70%
share
of
the
U.S.
market
for
music
players.
(source:
LA
times)
35. Theory of Predicting the Future
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future
!
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four
stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with
something else. The stages are:
!
1.
2.
3.
4.
Critical Price
Critical Mass
!
Displace another technology
Become nearly free