The document discusses how IBM has remained successful over decades of technological change by maintaining connections with customers, embracing openness and business-relevant innovation, and planning financial strategies to exit commoditized businesses. It also examines theories for forecasting technological trends and identifies opportunities by targeting underserved customer needs, pursuing "good enough" solutions, and innovating in ways competitors do not.
2. Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future,
hovering on the edges of
the present state of things,
a map of all the ways in
which the present can
reinvent itself
Steven Johnson
3. Case Study
Why is IBM still alive and
thriving after so long, in an
industry characterised
perhaps more than any
other by innovation and
change?
Economist:
1100100
and
counting
6. Platform Shifts
“IBM is not a technology
company, but a company
solving business problems
using technology”
– George Colony
Economist:
1100100
and
counting
8. Platform Shifts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Maintain connection to customers!
Less hierarchical and more open!
Business relevant research!
Globally integrated!
Financial planning – get out of
commoditized business
Economist:
1100100
and
counting
9. Innovator’s Dilemma
Firms that s u c c e e d in one generation of
innovation almost inevitable become hamstrung by
their own success and thus doomed to l o s e o u t
in the next wave of innovation
11. Theories of Innovations
Adjacent possible
Liquid network
Slow hunch
Serendipity
Moore’s Law
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Technology S-Curve
Kondratiev Wave
Technology Adoption Life Cycle
Diffusion of Innovation
Disruptive Innovation Theory
The Resources, Processes and Values Theory
12. Opportunity
How can we use these tools to forecast how
information technology
is evolving?
35. NORMAL
REMOVE THE TECHNOLOGY
Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6
a.m. to check his work e-mail and a.m. to check messages from work,
his Facebook and Twitter accounts. get news from his friends and see
The two boys, Cole and Erik, start what others are recommending. The
each morning with text messages, two boys, Cole and Erik, start each
video games and Facebook.
morning communicating with
friends, playing games and getting
news form their friends.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
38. Targeting overshot customers
or non-consumption
Removes barriers that constrain
the ability to consume
!
Overshooting customers needs
!
Hidden beauty in undesirable or
invisible markets
39. Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Skill
Example: photography
Kodak’s Brownie
Camera
40. Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Skill
Example: Computers
Apple’s iPad
41. Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Wealth
Example: Computing
The Personal
Computer
42. Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Access
Example: Telephony
Mobile phones
43. Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Access
Example: Niche movies
Youtube Lego
Star wars
44. Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Time
Example: Auction
Ebay auction
46. Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
What is the barrier for these:
1. Creating a Computer Game for mobile
2. Making an Music Album
3. Publishing a Novel
4. Health Care
5. University level education
6. Rent your house
47. Targeting overshot customers
or non-consumption
Make the complicated simple
Don’t let the mainstream derail you
Innovate, don’t force
65. Trend Lines
70
Computers
IBM
80
90
IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP
00
Intel
Many vendors
Many devices
!
Operation
System
Owners
Governments Corporation
Users
Priests
Built-in
Unix, VMS,
Specialists
CMP
DOS
10
Windows JVM, CLR
Small business
Homes
Educated people
Public
Public
!
Killer App.
!
Homemade
Business Apps
Customized
Word processing
Business Apps Spreadsheets
!
Abstractions
!
None
Languages
Operating systems
Software
Communication
Media
Entertainment
Services
Comm.
!
None
TCP/IP
HTTP
Web Services
Agents
Big players
!
HCI
!
IBM
IBM, DEC
Tapes, cards Keyboards
Mouse
Microsoft
Google, Yahoo!
Touch, voice
66. Trend Lines
80
IBM
Computers
90
IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP
00
Intel
Users
Priests
Specialists
CMP
DOS
Windows JVM, CLR
Small business
Homes
Educated people
Public
Public
!
Killer App.
Homemade
Business Apps
!
Customized
Word processing
Business Apps Spreadsheets
!
Abstractions
None Languages
!
Comm.
!
None
Big players
Operating systems
TCP/IP
Software
HTTP
IBM
IBM, DEC
Microsoft
HCI
! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse
!
20
Many vendors
Many devices
!
Operation
Built-in
Unix, VMS,
System
Owners
Governments Corporation
10
Communication
Media
Entertainment
Services
Web Services
Agents
Google, Yahoo!
Touch, voice
?
67. Trend Lines
80
IBM
Computers
90
IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP
00
Intel
Many vendors
Many devices
!
Operation
Built-in
Unix, VMS,
System
Owners
Governments Corporation
Users
Priests
Specialists
CMP
DOS
10
Invisible
!
Invisible
Browser
Windows JVM, CLR
Small business
Homes
Educated people
!
Public
Everyone
with many
+
Machines
Public
!
Killer App.
Homemade
Business Apps
!
Customized
Word processing
Business Apps Spreadsheets
!
Abstractions
None Languages
!
Comm.
!
None
Big players
Operating systems
TCP/IP
Software
HTTP
IBM
IBM, DEC
Microsoft
HCI
! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse
!
Communication
Media
Entertainment
Services
Web Services
20
Agents
Google, Yahoo!
!
Games
+
Same
!
APIs
!
!
Software
bots
New players
!
Touch, voice
+ Gestures
!
!