Myanmar’s Hydropower Strategy and Its Impact on Industry Players

www.duanemorris.com1
MYANMAR’S HYDROPOWER STRATEGY
AND ITS IMPACT ON INDUSTRY PLAYERS
Oliver Massmann – Partner, General Director
www.duanemorris.com

Global status
Myanmar status
Conclusion
Outline of Presentation
Power planning
Hydropower strategy

Global status
Myanmar status
Conclusion
Power planning
Hydropower strategy

Source: World Energy Council, REN21, IHA
Global Electricity (2014)
Global power production
23,600 TWh
Including renewables
~5,400 TWh
4

www.duanemorris.com5Source: IHA and REN21
Top 8 Countries (2014)
for hydropower production
Total capacity
GW
Added in 2014
MW
Generation
TWh
1) China 300 21,850 1,070
2) Brazil 89 3,312 392
3) Canada 78 1,724 376
4) United States 101 212 257
5) Russia 49 1,058 164
6) Norway 31 - 136
7) India 44 1,195 125
8) Japan 45 724 85
Rest of World 318 14,925 1,345
World Total 1,055 45,000 3,950
Myanmar 3.1 160 15.8
5

www.duanemorris.com6Source: IHA and REN21
Top 10 Countries (2014)
by remaining hydropower potential
Total potential
TWh/year
Current utilization
%
Undeveloped
TWh/year
1) Russia 1670 10 1502
2) China 2140 41 1259
3) Canada 1181 32 799
4) India 660 21 523
5) Brazil 818 48 425
6) Indonesia 402 3 389
7) Peru 395 6 379
8) DR Congo 314 2 307
9) Tajikistan 317 5 301
10)U.S 529 52 256
Myanmar 240 5 226
6

Global status
Myanmar status
Conclusion
Power planning
Hydropower strategy

Potential of Myanmar
(Major river basins)
8
River basin
Developed
capacity
(MW)
Under
construction
(MW)
Under
processing
(MW)
Potential
future
projects
(MW)
Total of
each
basin
(MW)
Ayeyarwady
Upper Ayeyarwady
Lower Ayeyarwady
1,870
149
2,056
150
15,200
-
6,000
-
25,126
299
Chindwin - - 380 1860 2,240
Sittaung 810 - 260 - 1,070
Thanlwin 302 81.4 15,395 765 16,543.4
Others 20 111 521 1,511.5 2,163.5
Total (MW) 3,151 2,398.4 31,756 10,136.5 47,441.9

Existing Electricity
9
Installed capacity 4,805 MW
Electricity generation 14,156 GWh
Electricity generation from hydropower 8829 GWh (62.4%)
No. of consumers 3.3 millions
Per capita consumptions 222 KWh
Electrification town 429 Nos (On grid)
Electrification villages 6626 Nos (On grid)
Electrification ratio 33%
Generator,
12783
Power
System,
4785
Solar
Power, 740
Bio Gas,
1213
Micro-
Hydro,
2154
Generator Power System Solar Power Bio Gas Micro-Hydro
Power Sources of Villages (2012-13)
Kachin, 355 Kayah, 108
Kayin, 255
Chin, 294
Sagaing,
3815
Tanintharyi,
696
Bago, 1090
Magway,
2514
Mandalay,
2563
Mon, 573
Rakhine,
1016
Yangon, 455
Shan, 1848
Ayeyarwady,
5616
Naypyitaw,
477
Electrified Villages (2012-13)
Average
34%
(21,675)
Average
34%
(21,675)

Global status
Myanmar status
Conclusion
Power planning
Hydropower strategy

Power Consumption Trend
11
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Growth(%)
Energy(GWh)
Company Departmental
Temporary Street lighting
Commercial Industrial
General purpose Growth
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total
consumption
4355 4438 4701 4993 6315 7696 8254
Growth(%) - 1.9 5.9 6.2 26.5 21.5 7.2

Forecasting Conditions
12
Analysis step Conditions for the forecast Reference
Variable
setting
GDP High Case : 8.7% The growth rate of 2011-2012
Low Case : 6.4% IMF “Economic Outlook”
Elasticity 1.4 The average from the result of
2002-2010
Power
Consumption
Forecast
Potential
demand
4.4% Calculated from the load shedding
result data
Scenario High case Both industry and non-industry
sector will grow at 13%
Low case Industry sector will grow at 13% by
2020, afterwards, 9.8%
Non-industry sector will grow at
9.8% constantly

Industrial Complex
13
(Yangon Region)
Name Open
Area
(ha)
No. of
Factories
Capacity
(MVA)
Peak Load
(MW)
Dagon 1997 489.1 102 30 8.99
East Dagon 2000 317.3 45 25 7.08
North Okkalapa 1998 44.4 94 15 4.8
South Dagon 1992 300.8 2078 100 18.1
South Okkalapa 2000 14.2 95 10 2.3
Thaketa 1999 80.9 90 10 2.25
Shwepaukkan 1998 38.3 244 25 5.21
Shwelinpan 2002 445.2 203 35 12.9
Hlaingtharyar(1,2,3,4,6,7) 1995 567.1 519 75 42.1
Mingaladon Pyinmabin 1996 89.8 6 15 5.25
Wartaya 2004 445 3 10 1.8
Shwe Pyi Thar 1996 535.6 240 55 21.2
Yangon industrial Zone 2000 365.2 31 20 4.5
Myaungtagar(Hmawbi) 2006 411 22 100 32.3
Total 4,143.9 3,772 525 168.78
Source: YESB, JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization) “Myanmar Industrial Complex Research Report”

Industrial Complex
14
State/Region Industrial Zone Max Peak Load (MW)
Kachin State Myintkyina 0.1
Kayah State Loikaw 0.5
Kayin State Hpa-an -
Mon State Mawlamying 0.5
Shan(South)State Ayetharyar 3
Mandalay Region
Zone(1) 20
Zone(2) 20
Meikhtila 4.8
Myingyan 1.2
Sagaing Region
Ruby Zone 5
Nandawon Zone 6
Monywa Zone 2.5
Magway
Yaenanchaung 0.6
Pakokku 1.2
Bago(West)Region
Zone(1) 2.5
Zone(2) 0.3
Ayeyarwady Region
Pathein 0.25
Myaungmya 1.56
Total 70.01
Year
Industry Development
High Case (MW) Low Case (MW)
2012 609 609
2020 1,472 1,472
2030 4,723 3,468
Year
Special Economic Zone (MW)
Thilawa Kyaukphyu Mandalay Dawei
2020 180 – 200 100 100 180
2030 400 – 500 180 300 300 - 500

Forecasting Conditions
15
Results of Demand Forecast by region/state
Results of Demand Forecast
Year
Total
Non-
industry
Industry Total
Non-
industry
Industry
2012 1,874 1,265 609 1,874 1,265 609
2020 4,531 3,060 1,472 3,862 2,390 1,472
2030 14,542 9,819 4,723 9,100 5,631 3,468
Region
/State
FY2012 FY2030 FY2012 FY2030
Kachin 21 185 21 140
Kayah 8 162 8 130
Kayin 13 165 13 135
Chin 3 90 3 60
Mon 45 418 45 338
Rakhine 10 243 10 180
Shan 103 355 103 288
Sagaing 98 349 98 282
Tanintharyi 52 290 52 235
Bago 131 646 131 523
Magwe 106 293 106 238
Mandalay 457 2,731 457 2,203
Ayeyarwaddy 85 406 85 329
Yangon 742 8,209 742 4,019
Total 1,874 14,542 1,874 9,100
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Electricity(MW)
High Case Low Case

Balance - Demand & Supply
16
Demand : 14.5GW in High case
Supply : 18.9GW in Dry season available by installed capacity for
Myanmar 23.6GW & total installed capacity 27.0GW

Power Supply Planning
17
Scenarios
SN 1- Domestic Energy
Consumption
SN 2- Least Cost
SN 3- Power Resources Balance
Annual Transition of Power Supply for Peak Demand (MW)
8896, 38%
4758, 20%
7940, 34%
2000, 8%
Hydro Gas Coal Renewable

Global status
Myanmar status
Conclusion
Power planning
Hydropower strategy

Hydropower Planning
19
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Installed Capacity (MW) 3325 3495 3596 3596 3680 3842 4002 4179 4845 4845 5575 6193 7433 9226 12268 13268 16318 19873
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
HydropowerInstalledCapacity(MW)
26%

Strategic Ways
20
1
Sole Investment
by Ministry
2
JV Basic
(Foreign
Investment)
3
BOT Basic
(Local
Entrepreneurs)

www.duanemorris.com21 21
Progress of Hydropower
Implementing Hydropower Projects (MOEP)
Sr. No. Project Name
Installed Capacity
(MW)
1. Upper Paunglaung 140
2. Middle Paunglaung 100
3. Shwe Li (3) 1,050
4. Deedoke 60
5. Upper Yeywa 280
6. Middle Yeywa 700
7. Tha-htay 111
8. Upper Keng Tawng 51
Total 2,492MW

River - Paunglaung River
Inflow - 260 Mm3
Dam - RCC Dam, 98 m Height
Progress - 99.25 %
Upper Paunglaung HPP (140 MW)

Powerhouse
Headrace
(Tunnel)
Dam and Spillway
Switchyard
River flow direction
Right Abutment
T/L
Intake
Tailrace
Left Abutment
Middle Paunglaung HPP (100 MW)
River - Paunglaung River
Inflow - 7.31 Mm3
Dam - RCC Dam, 94.5 m Height
Progress - Review FSR

Shweli (3) HPP (1,050 MW)
River - Shweli River
Inflow - 14259 Mm3
Progress - 9.61 %

Deedoke HPP (60 MW)
River - Myitnge River
Dam - Gravity Dam, 14 m Height
Progress - MOU Stage (Andritz)

Upper Yeywa HPP (280 MW)
Inflow - 11702 Mm3
Progress - 23.62%

Middle Yeywa HPP (700 MW)
Inflow - 12814 Mm3
Progress - MOU Stage (SN Power)

Tha-htay HPP (111 MW)
River - Tha-htay River
Inflow - 2876Mm3
Dam - Zoned Type Rockfill Dam, 91m Height
Progress - 40.50%

River - Nam Teng River
Inflow - 2302 Mm3
Dam - Zoned Type Rockfill Dam, 57 m Height
Progress - 29.15%
Upper Keng Tawng HPP (51 MW)

30
Implementing Hydropower Projects (JV/BOT)
No. of Projects
Installed Capacity
(MW)
MOU Stage 13 8,712
MOA Stage 13 16,205
JVA Stage 3 6,700
Total 29 31,617
JV Basic Projects
No. of Projects
Installed Capacity
(MW)
MOU Stage 2 160
BOT Stage 1 30.4
Total 3 190.4
BOT Basic Projects

Global status
Myanmar status
Conclusion
Power planning
Hydropower strategy

Conclusion
32
 appears to have a promising future
 can increase the clean energy supply and reduce
greenhouse gas emission
 moving to public private partnership
 focus sustainable and responsible development
 key sources of energy for industry players
 electricity supply from the national grid support
industries to reduce the production cost
 assists economic development & reduction of poverty
Hydropower Strategy in Myanmar:

Thank you!
Oliver Massmann – Partner, General Director
omassmann@duanemorris.com;

Myanmar’s Hydropower Strategy and Its Impact on Industry Players

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