1. A
RESEARCH WORK
ON
THE EFFECTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS ON
AVIATION FLIGHT SCHEDULES AND
OPERATIONS
BY
AKANDE SAMUEL OLUMIDE
Centre for Space Research and Applications
FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, AKURE
ONDO STATE, NIGERIA
olusamakande@yahoo.com
+234-7032320763

2. INTRODUCTION
Aviation plays a major role in today’s social and
economic scenarios.
It offers a quick, reliable and safe way of taking
people to their destination, for business
reasons, holidays or family visits.
Even after a century of flight, weather is still the
factor most likely to result in accidents with
fatalities.
An increasing demand for air travel is the first
challenge to the future of air transport.

3.  A flight delay is a delay in which an airline CAUSES
flight takes off and/or lands later than its  Maintenance problems
scheduled time. A flight is considered  Crew problems
delayed when it is 15 minutes later than its
 Aircraft cleaning
scheduled time. (Hauke et al, 2001)
 Baggage loading
 Occasional delays are part of air travel today.
 Fueling
Much as we dislike delays, they are yet
unavoidable, even in the well-run airlines.  Extreme weather
 Congestion in air traffic
 Security issues

4.  Aviation weather hazards do not only unleash its impact on
aircrafts in flights but also affects those packed at the
Aerodromes.
 Therefore, a good knowledge of this subject matter becomes
very important to Aircraft operators, pilots and flight crew
members
 Should the safety of lives and properties be ensured and risks
reduced to the barest minimum.
 The great increase in air traffic has led to a large increase in the
demand for airport capacity.
 Also, the months of May to October are months of the rainy
season, characterized by severe thunderstorms and line squalls
and its attendant turbulence, microbursts and lighting.

5. AIM
To examine the various weather hazards that affect
the effective flight operation in the aviation industry.
OBJECTIVES
o study the weather approach to problems of flight
delays and cancellation.
To analyse the weather parameters that likely affects
the smooth flight operations.
To see if by human efforts, air crashes due to natural
(weather) hazards such as thunderstorms, wind shear,
precipitation can be mitigated.

6.  The study area for this report is the Murtala
Mohammed International Airport , Ikeja, Lagos State,
Nigeria. It lies between latitude 6021I11II N and
longitude 3023I44II E. It is the busiest airport in Nigeria.
 It is the major airport serving the city of Lagos,
Southwestern Nigeria and the entire nation, with an
average of 300 aircraft movements a day. It caters for
more than 5 million a year.
 Lagos state is a coastal state bounded to the south by
the Atlantic Ocean and the other sides by neighboring
states.
Total % freight Total Aircraft
Year Passengers Increase (tons) Movements
2003 3362464 51826 62439
2004 3576189 6 89496 67208
2005 3817338 6.3 63807 70893
2006 3848757 0.8 83598 74650
2007 4162424 7.5 81537
2008 5136920 23.4 77472
2009 5644572 9.9 84588
2010 6273454 11.1 96919
2011 6748290 7.6 105215

7. • Flight delay is a complex phenomenon, because it can be
due to problems at the origin airport, at the destination
airport, or during airborne.
• Flight schedules are often subjected to irregularity. Due to
the tight connection among airlines resources, delays could
dramatically propagate over time and space unless the
proper recovery actions are taken. (Wu, 2005).
• In addition, there are general arrival and departure delays.
This usually indicates that arrival traffic is doing airborne
holding or departing traffic is experiencing longer than
normal taxi times or holding at the gate. These could be
due to a number of reasons, including thunderstorms in the
area, a high departure demand, or a runway change.
(Aisling and Kenneth, 1999).

8. WEATHER HAZARDS ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS
REDUCED (POOR) VISIBILITY
Fog
 It forms over land usually under clear
skies and light winds typically after
midnight and peaks early in the
morning. After sunrise, the fog begins
to burn off from the edges over land.
Precipitation
 Rain can reduce visibility; however,
the restriction is seldom less than one
mile other than in the heaviest
showers beneath cumulonimbus
clouds. Drizzle, because of the greater
number of drops in each volume of
air, is usually more effective than rain
at reducing the visibility, especially
when accompanied by fog.

9. Wind Shear
 Wind shear is a change in wind direction
and/or wind speed over the distance
between two points.
 If the points are in a vertical direction then it
is called vertical shear, if they are in a
horizontal direction than it is called
horizontal shear.
 In the aviation world, the major concern is
how abruptly the change occurs.
 Depending on the aircraft type, it may take a
significant time to correct the situation,
placing the aircraft in peril, particularly
during takeoff and landing.
Turbulence
 Turbulence is the direct result of wind shear.
The stronger the shear the greater the
tendency for the laminar flow of the air to
break down into eddies resulting in
turbulence.

10. CONSEQUENCES OF WEATHER HAZARDS

13. DATA USED METHODOLOGY
 The data collected for the  The Histograms were plotted for the
use of the study is known as data from the divisions in Aircraft
Daily Flight Schedule Report. operations. This is to show the
frequent occurrence of factors
 This data was collected from
responsible for the problems of
flight operations data unit of flight operations.
AIR NIGERIA AIRWAYS, ikeja,
Lagos State. The data ranges  Also, line graphs, showing the
relationship between some weather
between May-October 2011 parameters(rainfall, windspeed, and
and May-October 2012. thunderstorm) that also contributes
 The meteorological data used to problems of flight operations.
were collected from the  The monthly means of these
Nigeria Meteorological parameters were used for the
Agency, Ikeja office, Lagos. analysis for the period of my stay on
Industrial Training (May-October).

14. 18
16 14.29
14 13.19
Percentage of Delays
12.09 2011
12 10.99 10.99
9.89 9.89 2012
10
8
6 4.4
4 3.3 3.3 3.3
2.2 2.2
2
0 0
0
Divisions in Aircraft Operations
Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (MAY)
18
16.16
16 15.15
14.14
14
12 2011
10.1
Percentage of Delays
10 2012
8.08 8.08
8
6.06
6 5.05
4.04 4.04 4.04
4 3.03
2.02
2
0 0
0
Divisions in Aircraft Operations
Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (JUNE)

15. 20 18.68
18
16
Percentage of Delays
13.19 13.19 2011
14
12 10.99 2012
9.89
10 8.79
7.69 7.69
8
5.49
6
4 3.3
2 1.1
0 0 0 0
0
Divisions in Aircraft Operations
Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (JULY)
20 18.25
18
15.87
16
Percentage of Delays
14.29
13.49
14
12 2011
10.32
10 2012
7.94
8 6.35
5.56
6
4 2.38 2.38
1.59 1.59
2
0 0 0
0
Divisions in Aircraft Operations
Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations(AUGUST)

16. 18
15.7
16 14.53
2011
Percentage of Delays
14
11.63 2012
12 11.05
9.2 9.65
10 8.14
8 6.4 6.98
6
3.49
4
1.74 1.5
2
0 0 0
0
Divisions in Aircraft Operations
Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (SEPT)
18
16
14.29
14 12.99
11.69 2011
12
10.39 9.96 2012
10
Percentage of Delays
8 6.49 6.49 6.93
5.19 5.63
6
4 3.46
2.16 2.6
1.73
2
0
0
Divisions in Aircraft Operations
Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (OCT.)

17. 210 19
200 18.5
190 18
180 17.5
170 17
RAINFALL (mm)
160 16.5
RR Th
150 16
140 15.5
130 15
120 14.5
110 14
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Rainfall (2011)
200 22
190 21
180 20
RAINFALL (mm)
170 19
160 18
150 17 RR
140 16 Th
130 15
120 14
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Rainfall (2012)

18. 3.15 19
3.1 18.5
3.05 18
17.5
WIND SPEED (m/s)
3
17
2.95
16.5
2.9
16 Wind
2.85
15.5 Th
2.8 15
2.75 14.5
2.7 14
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Windspeed (2011)
3.1 21.5
20.5
3
19.5
2.9
18.5
WIND SPEED (m/s)
2.8
17.5
Wind
2.7
16.5 Th
2.6
15.5
2.5 14.5
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Windspeed (2012)

19. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 The graphs 1-6 which shows the number of delays with their
respective delay reasons, there were some delay reasons that had
low number of delays while some has a high number of delays.
 The months of July and August, 2012 recorded the highest
percentage delays due to weather with amounting to 18.68% and
18.25% respectively.
 Thus, there was an upward trend in the percentage which implies
that there were delays and flight operation problems due to bad
weather.
 The Graphs 7-10 show the weather effects on delays caused by
thunderstorms, wind speed and rainfall which are the weather
variables considered.
 These then show that in most cases, an increase in thunderstorm
occurrence leads to an increase in the rainfall occurrence (as well
as rainfall amount). Also, an increase in the win speed also
corresponds to an increase in the thunderstorms

20. CONCLUSION
From May to October, the percentage and the numbers
of delays due to weather hazards show that the issue of
delays due to weather hazards is to be taken with
utmost seriousness.
In conclusion, weather hazards are one of the
significant factors of flight operations, therefore pilots
and aviation managers needs to have the knowledge of
weather hazards integrated into flight operational
guidelines.

21.  NIMET should be issuing a comprehensive daily weather report
before the daily flight scheduled are been planned.
 The Government should embark on projects to improve weather
study and acquire weather equipment that would ensure that
pilots are kept abreast of weather information at any time.
 The Government should provide the Federal Airport Authority of
Nigeria (FAAN) the installation of MeteoSat Second Generation
(MSG) ground receiver; installation of thunderstorm detectors;
construction of Weather Forecasting and Climate research Centre.
 Also the construction as procurement and installation of Doppler
Weather Radars (DWR); installation of low-level wind shear alert
system (LLWAS) at the two wings of the airports; procurement and
installation of Upper Air sounding equipment.

22. THANK
YOU