1. MAT10251 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Data Analysis Project
This project leads you through a statistical analysis of the daily change in the closing
price of an ASX (Australian Securities Exchange) Index for 2008 and 2009. Also, the
project investigates, for the same index, the relationship between the daily volume of
shares traded and the daily turnover for 2008.
Data obtained from Sydney Morning Herald at http://business.smh.com.au/ , October
2008, January 2009 and September 2009
Part A covers Topics 1, 5, 6 and 7 and Part B Topics 8 to 11 of the unit.
It is suggested that you work on this project throughout the semester.
The data for this project can be accessed from the MAT10251 website on MySCU
To obtain your data
(1) Click on the 'Assessment Items'.
(2) Click on the ‘Data for Data Analysis Project’. This will download an Excel file.
(3) Save this as a new Excel file.
You are expected to use Excel when completing the project. Your findings and
conclusions should be submitted as a word document into which your Excel outputs
have been copied.
You should submit your project online using Project Submission.
Each part (A and B) of the project should be presented as a three to five page Word file
with Excel output embedded. The given cover sheets should be included as the first
pages.
Furthermore, each part is required to have an appendix, which should be a single
document in one of the following formats:
• Excel with added comments, make sure that this file is formatted so that each
worksheet can be printed as a single page.
• Word with Excel output embedded
• Handwritten with Excel which has been scanned and submitted as a pdf file.
However, for ease of marking please also include your appendix at the end of your
report. If necessary, cut and paste it into your Word file.
Note If you do not have Excel, you may use another computer spreadsheet or
statistical software package.
.
MAT10251: Statistical Analysis Project 2009

2. STUDENT NAME:
STUDENT ID NUMBER:
MAT10251 – Statistical Analysis
Data Analysis Project
Part A
Please use this cover page when submitting your project
Complete the summary table below.
Choice
Index
Value: 15%
PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A COPY OF YOUR PROJECT
MAT10251: Statistical Analysis Project 2009

3. MAT10251 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Data Analysis Project – Part A
(Marked out of 30 but worth 15% of final assessment)
Choose an index, and fill in the summary table on the cover page.
For this index in Part A we will explore the “Change in Price” data for 2008 and 2009
Statistical Working
The following statistical tasks should appear as an appendix to your report. This
should include all necessary steps and appropriate Excel output.
The appendix should be a single document in one of the following formats:
• Excel with added comments; make sure that this file is formatted so that each
worksheet can be printed as a single page.
• Word with Excel output embedded
• Handwritten with Excel which has been scanned and submitted as a pdf file
However, for ease of marking please also include your appendix at the end of your
report. If necessary, cut and paste it into your Word file.
Descriptive Statistics (4 marks)
For your chosen index, analyse the daily change in the closing price for 2008 by using
the data in the “Change in Price” column for 2008 to
• Plot the data graphically – only need to submit one graph, but no penalty if you
submit more.
• Calculate the summary statistics for the daily change in closing price for 2008.
Statistical Inference (16 marks)
For your chosen index use the data in the “Change in Price” column for 2008 and/or
2009 and appropriate statistical inference techniques to answer the following:
• What was the average daily change in closing price of your chosen index in
2008?
• On the majority of days during 2008, did your chosen index fall in price?
• For your chosen index, is there a difference in the average daily change in
closing price between 2008 and 2009?
MAT10251: Statistical Analysis Project 2009

4. Notes
• You do not need to repeat any Excel calculations by hand. However, make sure
that you define your random variables and include any steps not given by
Excel. For example, in a hypothesis test include the null and alternative
hypotheses, along with the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.
• Mention any assumptions you are required to make to answer the above.
• Comment on why the test/confidence interval has been chosen
• Make sure you interpret your confidence interval/s and write a conclusion to
your hypothesis test/s.
Report (10 marks)
Present your graph, statistics, and calculations in a brief report or business memo,
along with your interpretations and conclusions.
This should be three to five pages with a maximum of 1000 words. The report should
be submitted as a Word file with Excel output embedded with the given cover pages as
the first two pages.
Make sure you:
• Describe your samples and populations
• Include your graph.
• Discuss the shape, centre and dispersion of your graph/s. What conclusions can
you reach about the distribution or pattern of the daily change in the closing
price of your chosen index?
• Discuss and interpret the summary statistics. In particular, present conclusions
about the centre and variability of the daily change in the closing price of your
index for 2008.
• Include any necessary assumptions needed for your hypothesis test/s and
confidence interval/s. If assumptions are made how likely they are to be correct
and if not correct how would this affect the results? If no assumptions are
necessary mention this and why.
• Present the results of your hypothesis test/s and confidence interval/s without
unnecessary statistical jargon.
• Comment on the level of significance or confidence level chosen and how this
relates to the reliability of your conclusions.
MAT10251: Statistical Analysis Project 2009

5. Marking Criteria – Part A
See the marking and feedback sheet for allocation of marks.
Statistical Calculation
• To obtain full marks graph must be correct, including correct labels on both axes
and a title. Marks will be deducted if:
o Graph incorrect
o Excel not used
o Axes incorrectly or not labelled
o No title
o Scale on axes distorts graphs.
• To obtain full marks for the summary statistics copy the output table of the
Descriptive Statistics command in Data Analysis. You may delete unnecessary
statistics in this table.
• Marks will be deducted if this table is incorrect, so check:
o Your sample size
o Whether you are calculating sample statistics or population parameters.
• For the confidence interval/s and hypothesis test/s marks will be given for:
o Choice of appropriate statistical technique/s.
o Random variable defined
o Correct hypotheses for a test
o Correct statistical calculations, including Excel
o Correct interpretation of results.
MAT10251: Statistical Analysis Project 2009

6. Report
• Maximum 1000 words and 5 pages - marks will be deducted if this is greatly
exceeded.
• To obtain full marks report must:
o Be well structured
o Clearly communicate the results of the Excel output in language appropriate
for your audience
o Include your conclusions in the context of the data.
o Include appropriate graphs and tables to summarise your results.
• Marks will be deducted if:
o There is little or no comment on, or interpretation of, the Excel output
o Unnecessary statistical jargon and equations appear
o Report is confusing or not readable
o Report is handwritten
• Marks will not be deducted for minor spelling and grammatical errors. However,
marks will be deducted for spelling and grammatical errors that affect the
readability of the report.
• As there is no specified format for the report, no marks will be given or deducted
for format.
Notes
• You should not need to read beyond the study guide and textbooks to complete the
project.
• You probably will not need to reference, but if you do use any consistent
referencing style.
MAT10251: Statistical Analysis Project 2009

7. STUDENT NAME:
STUDENT ID NUMBER:
MAT10251 – Statistical Analysis
Data Analysis Project
Part B
Please use this cover page when submitting your project
Complete the summary table below.
Choice
Index
Value: 15%
PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A COPY OF YOUR PROJECT

8. MAT10251 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Data Analysis Project – Part B
(Marked out of 30 but worth 15% of final assessment)
Choose an index, and fill in the summary table on the cover page.
In Part B we will further explore the “Change in Price” data for 2009, as well as
exploring the “Volume millions”’ and “Turnover A$ million”. data for 2009.
Statistical Working
The following statistical tasks should appear as an appendix to your report. This
should include all necessary steps and appropriate Excel output.
The appendix should be a single document in one of the following formats:
• Excel with added comments; make sure that this file is formatted so that each
worksheet can be printed as a single page.
• Word with Excel output embedded
• Handwritten with Excel which has been scanned and submitted as a pdf file
However, for ease of marking please also include your appendix at the end of your
report. If necessary, cut and paste it into your Word file.
Further Statistical Inference (11 marks)
• Assuming that the daily change in closing price is normal for all indices, is there a
difference in daily change in closing price in the five indices for 2009?
• For your chosen index, check the normality assumption above.
Notes.
• Use Excel for statistical calculations. You do not need to repeat any Excel
calculations by hand. However, make sure that you define your random variables
and include any steps, including null and alternative hypothesis, not given by
Excel.
• Mention any assumptions you must make.
• Make sure you write a conclusion to your hypothesis tests.

9. Regression and Correlation (7 marks)
For your given index, investigate the relationship between the volume of trade and the
daily turnover in 2009 by using the data in the “Volume millions”’ and “Turnover A$
million” columns for 2009 to
• Plotting the data graphically
• Calculating the least squares regression line, correlation coefficient and coefficient
of determination.
• Assume on a given day during 2009 that 600,000,000 shares of your chosen index
were traded. Using an appropriate interval estimate the turnover on this day.
Notes:
• Use Excel for statistical calculations. You do not need to repeat any Excel
calculations by hand. However, make sure that you define your random variables
and include any steps not given by Excel.
• Mention any assumptions you need to make.
• Comment on why an interval has been chosen
• Make sure you write a conclusion to your interval
Report (12 marks)
(10 marks)
Present your graphs, statistics, and calculations in a brief report or business memo,
along with your interpretations and conclusions.
This should be three to five pages with a maximum of 1000 words. Furthermore, the
report should be submitted as a Word file with Excel output embedded with the given
cover pages as the first two pages.
Make sure you:
• Include any necessary assumptions needed for your tests and interval
• If assumptions are made how likely, they are to be correct and if not correct how
would this affect the results? If no assumptions are necessary mention this and why.
• Mention any concerns you have about the validity of results due to violations of
required conditions.
• Present the results of your tests without unnecessary statistical jargon.
• Comment on the level of significance and how this relates to the reliability of your
conclusions.
• Include your graph.
• Explain your choice of independent and dependent variable when exploring the
relationship between daily volume of trade and turnover.

10. • Discuss any apparent relationship between the daily volume of trade and turnover.
Comment on the strength, shape and sign of the relationship. Is this relationship
what you would have expected?
• Use the least squares regression line to estimate daily turnover from volume of
trade. Give an expression for estimated daily turnover in the report.
• Interpret the value of the gradient of the least squares regression line. What
conclusions can you draw about the value of a typical share traded in 2008?
• Interpret the value of the vertical intercept of the least squares regression line. Is
this value valid? Explain. If the value is not valid, theoretically what should the
value of the vertical intercept be?.
• Discuss and interpret the values of correlation coefficient and coefficient of
determination. In particular, are these values consistent with your graph?
• Mention any concerns you may have about the validity of your results due do a non-
linear relationship, extreme values etc.
(2 marks)
Furthermore, assume that after you submitted your report for Part A, that you obtained
the population data for 2008, which enabled you to calculate the population parameters
for 2008, mean daily change in closing price and proportion of days index fell during
2008. These parameters will be available on MySCU after Part A is submitted.
Include in you report a comment on the value of these parameters and your
conclusions in Part A. In particular,
• Did your confidence interval contain the population parameter?
• Did you make the right decision in your hypothesis test? If not was the error Type
I or Type II?

11. Marking Criteria – Part B
See the marking and feedback sheet for allocation of marks.
Statistical Calculation
• For the tests and interval marks will be given for:
o Choice of appropriate statistical technique/s.
o Random variable/s defined
o Correct hypotheses for a test
o Correct statistical calculations, including Excel
o Correct interpretation of results.
• To obtain full marks graph must be correct, including correct labels on both axes
and a title. Marks will be deducted if;
o Graph incorrect
o Excel not used
o Axes incorrectly or not labelled
o Incorrect independent and dependent variables
o No title
o Scale on axes distorts graphs.
• To obtain full marks for the least squares regression line, correlation coefficient
and coefficient of determination, you can use either:
o The Regression command in Data Analysis and copy resultant table into
report.
o Or insert a trendline on a scatter diagram, with both the equation and r 2
value showing, you will then need to manually calculate value of r.
• Marks will be deducted if Excel is not used and also for incorrect equations or
coefficients, so check:
o Your independent and dependent variables
o Your sample size

12. Report
• Maximum 1000 words and 5 pages - marks will be deducted if this is greatly
exceeded.
• Also, to obtain full marks report must:
o Be well structured and analysed
o Clearly communicate the results of the Excel output in language appropriate
for your audience
o Include your conclusions in the context of the data.
o Include appropriate graphs and tables to summarise your results.
• Marks will be deducted if:
o There is little or no comment on, or interpretation of, the Excel output
o Unnecessary statistical jargon and equations appear
o Report is confusing or not readable
o Report is handwritten
• Marks will not be deducted for minor spelling and grammatical errors. However,
marks will be deducted for spelling and grammatical errors that affect the
readability of the report.
• As there is no specified format for the report, no marks will be given or deducted
for format.
Notes
• You should not need to read beyond the study guide and textbooks to complete the
project.
• You probably will not need to reference, but if you do use any consistent
referencing style.