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Thailand’s Competitiveness:
              Creating the Foundations for Higher Productivity



                                                                                                                     Professor Michael E. Porter
                                                                                                    Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness
                                                                                                                        Harvard Business School

                                                                                                                                     Bangkok, Thailand
                                                                                                                                          4 May 2003

           This presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s articles and books, in particular, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (The Free Press,
           1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,” in The Global Competitiveness Report 2002, (World Economic Forum, 2002),
           “Clusters and the New Competitive Agenda for Companies and Governments” in On Competition (Harvard Business School Press, 1998), and joint
           work with Dr. Christian Ketels and the Sasin Graduate School of Business on Thai competitiveness financed by the NESDB. No part of this publication
           may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or
           otherwise - without the permission of Michael E. Porter.
           Further information on Professor Porter’s work and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness is available at www.isc.hbs.edu
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                               1                                                          Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thailand’s Economy in 2003


                 •        Thailand has registered economic growth through the 1990s, and
                          attracted substantial foreign investment

                 •        The economy has achieved high employment and comparatively
                          low poverty rates despite the Asian Crisis

                                                         BUT

                 •        The Asian Crisis hit Thailand first and harder, indicating the
                          fundamental weaknesses of the historical approach

                 •        Growth after the Crisis was driven by devaluation and domestic
                          stimuli packages

                 •        Despite the recent growth, GDP per capita remained flat over the
                          period since 1995


CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                       2                                 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Comparative Economic Performance
                                                       Selected Asian Economies



                   Annual Growth
                  Rate of Real GDP
                     30%
                                                                                                   Countries sorted by
                     25%                                                                           1995-2002 GDP Growth:

                     20%                                                                                   China
                                                                                                           Myanmar
                     15%
                                                                                                           Vietnam
                     10%                                                                                   Singapore
                                                                                                           Taiwan
                        5%
                                                                                                           Malaysia
                        0%                                                                                 Philippines
                      -5%                                                                                  Hong Kong
                                                                                                           Indonesia
                   -10%
                                                                                                           Thailand
                   -15%
                   -20%
                                     1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002




Source: EIU (2002)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                    3                                      Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
What is
                                           Competitiveness?
   •        Competitiveness is determined by the productivity with which a nation uses its
            human, capital, and natural resources. Productivity sets a nation’s or region’s
            standard of living (wages, returns to capital, returns to natural resource endowments)
               – Productivity depends both on the value of products and services (e.g.
                 uniqueness, quality) as well as the efficiency with which they are produced
               – It is not what industries a nation competes in that matters for prosperity, but how
                 firms compete in those industries
               – Productivity in a nation is a reflection of what both domestic and foreign firms
                 choose to do in that location. The location of ownership is secondary for
                 national prosperity
               – The productivity of “local” industries is of fundamental importance to
                 competitiveness, not just that of traded industries
               – Devaluation does not make a country more competitive



   •        Nations compete in offering the most productive environment for business
   •        The public and private sectors play different but interrelated roles in creating a
            productive economy
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                    4                                 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Challenges to Thai Prosperity

                 •        Prosperity has stagnated over the period 1995 – 2002. The harder impact
                          of the Asian Crisis outweighed the relatively lower reliance on the sluggish
                          world IT markets
                 •        Productivity is comparatively low and growing only slowly
                 •        While export market share has stabilized after falling between 1995 and
                          1998, devaluation has reduced the prosperity gain for Thailand
                 •        Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows are reverting back to low pre-Asian
                          Crisis levels. FDI stock is still below regional averages
                 •        Innovation and technology performance is weak, though showing some
                          signs of improvement


                     • Thailand’s fundamental challenge is microeconomic
                     • Without an improvement in microeconomic fundamentals, current
                       growth will be short-lived


                     • Thailand must move to a new model of competitiveness
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                          5                                  Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Comparative Economic Performance
                                               Selected Middle- and Lower-Income Economies

          GDP per Capita,
           2001, US=100
          40%
                                                                                                                           Hungary
                                                                      Argentina
                                                                                                                           Slovak Republic

           30%
                                                                                                                                                        Estonia
                                                                                                     Chile
                                                        Uruguay       South Africa       Russia                             Poland                      (30%, +4.3%)
                                                                                                   Mexico
                                                                          Malaysia                   Costa Rica                   Croatia
                                                                               Brazil                             Lithuania      Botswana               Latvia
                                                           Romania
           20%                         Thailand                                                   Namibia         Tunisia                               (22%, +3.7%)
                                      Colombia                 Bulgaria Turkey                                                 Dominican Rep.
                                     Venezuela         Peru
                                                                           El Salvador
                                Jordan                  Ukraine
                              Jamaica                                      Philippines       Morocco
           10%                                                             Guatemala                         Sri Lanka                                  China
                             Ecuador                  Indonesia                                                                                         (12%, +4.5%)
                              Honduras                   Bolivia             Nicaragua                             India
                                                                                                                                     Vietnam
                                      Haiti
                                                                Nigeria
             0%
              -4.0%                           -3.0%           -2.0%           -1.0%           0.0%          1.0%              2.0%             3.0%

                                                                   CAGR of GDP per Capita Relative to the
                                                                             US, 1995-2001



Source: World Development Indicators 2002
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                                       6                                                   Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Comparative Labor Productivity Performance
                                                         Selected Asian Economies
       Labor Productivity
    (GDP per Employee), 2000

           $60,000
                                                                                          Singapore
                                                            Hong Kong
           $50,000                                                                   Taiwan


           $40,000


           $30,000


           $20,000
                                     Thailand                 Malaysia
           $10,000                                                Philippines
                                                                                                             China
                                                     Indonesia                Vietnam      Myanmar
                       $0
                         -2%                    0%           2%               4%           6%           8%        10%
                                                        Growth of Labor Productivity, CAGR, 1995-2000




              • Thailand’s labor productivity is far behind leading Asian economies and
                productivity growth is lagging badly
Source: EIU (2002)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                        7                                     Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thai Productivity
                                              Cluster Examples
       •        Tourism
                   – Thailand generates less revenue per tourist than leading competitors, for
                     example Indonesia
                   – Thailand has not been able to increase the revenue per tourists over time. Even
                     after the 1997 devaluation, revenues in terms of Thai Baht only remained
                     stable, while tourists reduced their spending in terms of US-Dollar

       •        Automotive
                   – Assembly plants in Thailand produce fewer cars per employee than the
                     international benchmark countries (11 versus 45 per year).
                   – Low labor cost allow Thai assembly plants to be cost competitive despite a
                     much lower level of automation
                   – Thai-based producers have low incentives to adopt world-class technology to
                     improve productivity, but this perpetuates low wages

       •        Food industry
                   – Thai companies employ workers without specific training and pay close to the
                     minimum wage, yet complain about high turnover
                   – Thai food processors are trapped in a low-productivity, low-wage, low-skill
                     system. Employees leave for more productive, better paying industries
Source: Sasin Study (2003)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                    8                                Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Comparative Inward Foreign Investment Flows
                                                   Selected Asian Economies
           FDI Inflows as
           percentage of
                GDP
           20%


           15%

                                                                                          Singapore
           10%                              Malaysia


              5%
                                                       Philippines                                             China
                                                                                                                Thailand
              0%

                                                                                             Indonesia
            -5%
                            1990     1991   1992   1993      1994    1995   1996   1997   1998   1999    2000



      • Thailand received strong FDI inflows in the years immediately after the devaluation in
        1997 but is now falling back to the FDI inflow levels of its immediate neighbors
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, SMC Analysis
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                   9                                   Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Annual U.S. patents                           International Patenting Output
          per 1 million
        population, 2001
               400

               350                                    USA

               300

                                                                             Taiwan
               250
                                Japan
                                                     Sweden
               200
                                                                                                                                 = 10,000
                              Germany
               150                               Finland                                                                         patents
                                                        Israel                                                                   granted in
                                                  Canada                                                                         2001
               100                                                                                    Singapore
                                         Netherlands                              South Korea
                                          UK
                  50                                       New Zealand
                                     Australia                                           Thailand
                    0
                        0%                            10%                20%                    30%          40%
                                        Compound annual growth rate of US-registered patents, 1990 - 2001




      • Thailand’s level of innovation as measured by U.S. patenting is insignificant
Source: US Patent and Trademark Office (www.uspto.gov). Author’s analysis.
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                           10                                    Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thailand’s Competitiveness



                 •        Assessing Thailand’s Competitive Position




                 •        Thailand’s Competitiveness Agenda in 2003




CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                     11             Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Innovation and Competitiveness


                                                       Prosperity
                                                       Prosperity




                                                      Productivity
                                                      Productivity                Competitiveness




                                                  Innovative Capacity
                                                   Innovative Capacity


                                 • Innovation is more than just scientific discovery
                                 • There are no low-tech industries, only low-tech firms

CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                         12                              Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth


                                     Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social
                                     Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social
                                             Context for Development
                                             Context for Development



                                     Microeconomic Foundations of Development
                                     Microeconomic Foundations of Development
                                     Sophistication
                                      Sophistication                Quality of the
                                                                     Quality of the
                                      of Company
                                       of Company                   Microeconomic
                                                                    Microeconomic
                                     Operations and
                                     Operations and                    Business
                                                                       Business
                                        Strategy
                                         Strategy                    Environment
                                                                      Environment




          • A sound macroeconomic, political, legal, and social context creates the
            potential for competitiveness, but is not sufficient
          • Competitiveness ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic
            capability of the economy and the sophistication of local companies and
            local competition
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                      13                            Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Integration of Macro- and Microeconomic Reforms


                                      Stability and confidence support
                                         investment and upgrading

Macro
reform
                                                                                       Micro
alone leads Create the opportunity                     Required to achieve         reform is
to short       for productivity                           productivity
                                                                                impeded by
term capital
                                                                                      macro
inflows
             Macroeconomic                             Microeconomic               economic
and
growth           reform                                      reform                volatility
                                                                                        that
spurts
                                                                                    reduces
that
                                                                                   company
ultimately
                                                                                 investment
are not                   Productivity growth allows economic
sustainable                growth and rising incomes without
                                      inflation, making macroeconomic
                                           stability easier to achieve



CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                 14                        Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Productivity and the Microeconomic Business Environment
                                                               Context for
                                                               Context for
                                                                  Firm
                                                                   Firm
                                                                Strategy
                                                                 Strategy
                                                               and Rivalry
                                                               and Rivalry
                                                       A local context and rules that
                                                        encourage investment and
                                                        sustained upgrading
                                                            – e.g., Intellectual property
                                      Factor
                                       Factor                 protection                            Demand
                                                                                                    Demand
                                      (Input)
                                       (Input)          Meritocratic incentive systems
                                                   
                                                                                                   Conditions
                                                                                                   Conditions
                                     Conditions
                                     Conditions         across all major institutions
                                                       Open and vigorous competition
                                                        among locally based rivals
               Presence of high quality,                                                  Sophisticated and demanding local
                specialized inputs                                                          customer(s)
                available to firms                             Related and                 Local customer needs that anticipate
                 – Human resources
                                                               Related and
                                                               Supporting                   those elsewhere
                 – Capital resources                            Supporting                 Unusual local demand in specialized
                 – Physical infrastructure                      Industries
                                                                 Industries                 segments that can be served nationally
                 – Administrative infrastructure                                            and globally
                 – Information infrastructure
                 – Scientific and technological       Access to capable, locally based suppliers
                   infrastructure                      and firms in related fields
                 – Natural resources                  Presence of clusters instead of isolated
                                                       industries


        • Successful economic development is a process of successive economic upgrading, in which
          the business environment in a nation evolves to support and encourage increasingly
          sophisticated ways of competing
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                  15                                                         Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
The California Wine Cluster                                               Winemaking
                                                                                                                        Winemaking
                                                                                                                        Equipment
                                                                                                                         Equipment

                     Grapestock
                     Grapestock                                                                                              Barrels
                                                                                                                             Barrels
                                                                        State Government Agencies
                                                                      (e.g., Select Committee on Wine
                                                                          Production and Economy)
            Fertilizer, Pesticides,
            Fertilizer, Pesticides,                                                                                           Bottles
                                                                                                                              Bottles
                  Herbicides
                   Herbicides


               Grape Harvesting                                                                                      Caps and Corks
                                                                                                                     Caps and Corks
               Grape Harvesting
                  Equipment
                  Equipment

                                                                                                                              Labels
                                                                                                                              Labels
            Irrigation Technology
             Irrigation Technology                                                           Wineries/Processing
                                                                                             Wineries/Processing
                                                       Growers/Vineyards
                                                       Growers/Vineyards                          Facilities
                                                                                                   Facilities      Public Relations and
                                                                                                                   Public Relations and
                                                                                                                       Advertising
                                                                                                                        Advertising

                                                                                                                   Specialized Publications
                                                                                                                   Specialized Publications
                                                                                                                    (e.g., Wine Spectator,
                                                                                                                     (e.g., Wine Spectator,
                                                                                                                        Trade Journal)
                                                                                                                         Trade Journal)




              California
              California                                            Educational, Research, & Trade
                                                                    Educational, Research, & Trade                  Tourism Cluster
                                                                                                                    Tourism Cluster
         Agricultural Cluster
         Agricultural Cluster                                      Organizations (e.g. Wine Institute,
                                                                   Organizations (e.g. Wine Institute,
                                                                     UC Davis, Culinary Institutes)
                                                                     UC Davis, Culinary Institutes)


                                                                                                                      Food Cluster
                                                                                                                      Food Cluster
Sources: California Wine Institute, Internet search, California State Legislature. Based on research by
MBA 1997 students R. Alexander, R. Arney, N. Black, E. Frost, and A. Shivananda.
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                             16                                     Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Levels of Clusters

          • There is often an array of clusters in a given field in different locations, each with
            different levels of specialization and sophistication

          • Global innovation centers, such as Silicon Valley in semiconductors, are few in
            number. If there are multiple innovation centers, they normally specialize in different
            market segments

          • Other clusters focus on manufacturing, outsourced service functions, or play the
            role of regional assembly or service centers

          • Firms based in the most advanced clusters often seed or enhance clusters in other
            locations in order to reduce the risk of a single site, access lower cost inputs, or
            better serve particular regional markets




          • The challenge for an economy is to move from isolated firms to an array of
            clusters, and then to upgrade the breadth and sophistication of clusters to more
            advanced activities
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                  17                                 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Levels of Clusters
                                                       Leading Footwear Clusters

                                                                                               Romania
                     Portugal
                                                                                               • Production subsidiaries
                     • Production
                                                                                                 of Italian companies
                     • Focus on short-
                                                                                               • Focus on lower to
                       production runs in the
                                                                                                 medium price range
                       medium price range




                                                Italy
                                                • Design, marketing,
                                                   and production of
                                                   premium shoes
                                                • Export widely to the
                                                   world market

  United States                                                                                        Vietnam/Indonesia
  • Design and marketing                                                                               • OEM Production
  • Focus on specific market                                              China                        • Focus on the low cost
    segments like sport and                                               • OEM Production               segment mainly for the
    recreational shoes and boots                                          • Focus on low cost            European market
  • Manufacturing only in                                                   segment mainly for the
    selected lines such as hand-                                            US market
    sewn casual shoes and boots

Source: Research by HBS student teams in 2002
 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                      18                                    Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Institutions for Collaboration

                                        General                • Institutions for collaboration (IFC) are formal
                                                                 and informal organizations that
              • Chambers of Commerce                               - facilitate the exchange of information
              • Professional associations                            and technology
              • School networks                                    - conduct joint activities
              • University partner groups                          - foster coordination among firms
              • Religious networks
              • Joint private/public advisory                  • IFCs can improve the business environment
                councils                                         by
              • Competitiveness councils
                                                                   - creating relationships and level of trust
                                                                     that make them more effective
                                                                   - defining of common standards
                                     Cluster-specific              - conducting or facilitating the organization
              • Industry associations                                of collective action in areas such as
              • Specialized professional                             procurement, information gathering, or
                associations and societies                           international marketing
              • Alumni groups of core cluster                      - defining and communicating common
                companies                                            beliefs and attitudes
              • Incubators                                         - providing mechanisms to develop a
                                                                     common economic or cluster agenda
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                        19                                     Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Influences on Competitiveness
                                        Multiple Geographic Levels

                                              World Economy




                                           Broad Economic Areas



                                           Groups of Neighboring
                                                 Nations



                                                   Nations




                                              States, Provinces



                                             Cities, Metropolitan
                                                     Areas

CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                   20              Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Specialization of Regional Economies
                                                     Select U.S. Geographic Areas
                                      Denver, CO
                                      Denver, CO                                 Chicago
                                                                                 Chicago
                                      Leather and Sporting Goods
                                      Leather and Sporting Goods                 Communications Equipment
                                                                                 Communications Equipment
                                      Oil and Gas                                                                   Boston
                                                                                                                    Boston
                                      Oil and Gas                                Processed Food
                                                                                 Processed Food
                                      Aerospace Vehicles and Defense                                                Analytical Instruments
                                                                                                                    Analytical Instruments
Seattle-Bellevue-
Seattle-Bellevue-                     Aerospace Vehicles and Defense             Heavy Machinery
                                                                                 Heavy Machinery
Everett, WA                                                                                                         Education and Knowledge Creation
                                                                                                                    Education and Knowledge Creation
Everett, WA                                                                                                         Communications Equipment
Aerospace Vehicles                                      Wichita, KS                       Pittsburgh, PA            Communications Equipment
Aerospace Vehicles                                      Wichita, KS                       Pittsburgh, PA
and Defense
and Defense                                             Aerospace Vehicles and
                                                        Aerospace Vehicles and            Construction Materials
                                                                                          Construction Materials
Fishing and Fishing
Fishing and Fishing                                        Defense
                                                            Defense                       Metal Manufacturing
                                                                                          Metal Manufacturing
Products
Products                                                Heavy Machinery
                                                        Heavy Machinery                   Education and Knowledge
                                                                                          Education and Knowledge
Analytical Instruments
Analytical Instruments                                  Oil and Gas
                                                        Oil and Gas                         Creation
                                                                                             Creation




San Francisco-
Oakland-San Jose
Bay Area
Communications
Equipment
Agricultural                                                                                                              Raleigh-Durham, NC
                                                                                                                           Raleigh-Durham, NC
Products                                                                                                                  Communications Equipment
                                                                                                                           Communications Equipment
Information                                                                                                               Information Technology
                                                                                                                           Information Technology
Technology                                                                                                                Education and
                                                                                                                           Education and
                                                                                                                          Knowledge Creation
                                                                                                                           Knowledge Creation

  Los Angeles Area
  Apparel                                                                                                               Atlanta, GA
                                      San Diego                                                                         Atlanta, GA
  Building Fixtures,                  San Diego                                                                         Construction Materials
                                      Leather and Sporting Goods                                                        Construction Materials
   Equipment and                      Leather and Sporting Goods                                                        Transportation and Logistics
                                      Power Generation                           Houston                                Transportation and Logistics
   Services                           Power Generation                           Houston                                Business Services
                                      Education and Knowledge                    Heavy Construction Services            Business Services
  Entertainment                       Education and Knowledge                    Heavy Construction Services
                                      Creation
                                      Creation                                   Oil and Gas
                                                                                 Oil and Gas
                                                                                 Aerospace Vehicles and Defense
                                                                                 Aerospace Vehicles and Defense


Note: Clusters listed are the three highest ranking clusters in terms of share of national employment
Source: Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School
 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                        21                                                 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Stages of Competitive Development




                      Factor-Driven                               Investment-                Innovation-
                        Economy                                 Driven Economy             Driven Economy


                                 Input                        Efficiency Through               Unique
                                 Cost                         Heavy Investment                 Value




  Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, The Free Press, 1990
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                          22                    Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thailand’s Competitiveness Agenda



                 •        Upgrade the Business Environment

                 •        Activate Cluster Development

                 •        Transform Company Strategies

                 •        Redefine the Roles of Business and Government

                 •        Decentralize More of Economic Policy to the Regional Level

                 •        Lead a Cross-National Strategy



CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                       23                            Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
National Business Environment Overview
                         Thailand’s Relative Strengths and Weaknesses
                                                                 Context for
                                                                 Context for
                                                                    Firm
                                                                     Firm
                                                                  Strategy
                                                                   Strategy
                                                                 and Rivalry
                                                                 and Rivalry
                                              + Inward foreign investment has
                                                raised the level of competition
                                              – Most companies compete on low
                                    Factor
                                     Factor     input costs and invest little in
                                                creating capabilities                         Demand
                                                                                              Demand
                                    (Input)
                                     (Input)
                                              – Complex, high tariffs and weak anti-        Conditions
                                                                                             Conditions
                                   Conditions
                                   Conditions
                                                trust laws impede competition
                                              – Government bureaucracy and
  + Thailand has a rich wildlife,
                                                corruption create significant costs
       beautiful locations, and some
                                                                                     – Local Thai demand tends to be
       natural resources
                                                                                        unsophisticated and does not
  + Physical infrastructure, especially
                                                                                        generally lead international trends
       roads, is good                                    Related and
                                                         Related and                        + In pick-up trucks, however,
  – Infrastructure in Bangkok is overtaxed                Supporting
                                                          Supporting                          Thailand is one of the most
  – The general skill level of the Thai                   Industries                          developed markets in the
                                                            Industries
       labor force is low, and educational                                                    world
       programs do not match company
       needs                                       – Most Thai clusters are focused on a
  – Communication networks are                       few labor-intensive stages of their
       expensive and weak outside of                 industries’ value chain
       Bangkok                                     – Cluster organizations exist, but tend to
  – Inadequate development of financial              be focused solely on lobbying
       markets
  – Low level of domestic technological
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                            24                                          Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Educational Performance
                                                                    Selected Asian Countries
  Gross Enrolment in Primary,
    Secondary, and Tertiary
       Education, 1999

         100
                          90
                                         82         82
            80                                                 75           73
                                                                                        70
                                                                                                      67          66           65          63
                                                                                                                                                       60       58
            60                                                                                                                                                               55               55


            40


            20


               0




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Source: UN – Human Development Indicators
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                                               25                                                                  Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Educational System Quality
                                                               Employer Satisfaction

                             Very satisfied
                                      Satisfied    3                      9                 8


                                                                                           29
                                                                         41
                                                  63
                                       Neutral
                                                                                           28

                                                                         35                 7
                                 Dissatisfied     12

                        Very dissatisfied                                 3                28
                                                  19
                                                                         12
                                                  Vocational        Under-graduate   Post graduate
                                                    level               level            level




    • Many Thai employers are unsatisfied with the quality of the education system at the
      more advanced levels, especially at the vocational level
Source : TDRI Survey 2001
 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                      26                          Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Quality of the Educational System
                                                     Cluster Examples

                 •        Tourism
                             – Graduates from many educational institutions are not trained for tasks
                               that are essential in tourism-related businesses
                             – More than 40% of tourism-related courses prepare graduates for
                               management positions. However, management positions account for
                               only 3% of the workforce needs in the Thai tourism cluster

                 •        Automotive
                             – The capabilities of production engineers and technicians graduating
                               from local educational institutions are often insufficient
                             – Companies are forced to provide extensive in-house training to
                               integrate new hires

                 •        Information Technology
                             – IT executives report that nearly 50% of all graduates need to be
                               significantly retrained before being useful


Source: Sasin Study (2003)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                           27                               Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Factor
      Factor
     (Input)
      (Input)                                    Science and Technology
    Conditions
    Conditions                                     Thailand’s Relative Position


                              Competitive Advantages                                             Competitive Disadvantages
                             Relative to GDP per Capita                                          Relative to GDP per Capita
                                                         Country Ranking,                                                               Country Ranking,
                                                          Arrows indicate a                                                              Arrows indicate a
                                                       change of 5 or more                                                            change of 5 or more
                                                          ranks since 1998                                                               ranks since 1998


          University/Industry Research Collaboration 29                              Availability of Scientists and Engineers                             55
                                                                                     Quality of Scientific Research Institutions 45
                                                                                     Quality of Math and Science Education                                41
                                                                                     Intellectual Property Protection                                     38




         •        Thailand is only slowly moving towards a system with high-quality research
                  institutions and the appropriate incentives for R&D and commercialization


  Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001)
  Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                         28                                                       Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Context for Firm
  Context for Firm
      Strategy
      Strategy                       Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry
    and Rivalry
     and Rivalry                                   Thailand’s Relative Position


                              Competitive Advantages                                              Competitive Disadvantages
                             Relative to GDP per Capita                                           Relative to GDP per Capita
                                                         Country Ranking,                                                                  Country Ranking,
                                                          Arrows indicate a                                                                 Arrows indicate a
                                                       change of 5 or more                                                                     change of 5 or
                                                          ranks since 1998                                                                  more ranks since
                                                                                                                                                        1998
          Cooperation in Labor-Employer Relations 9                                  Costs of Other Firms' Illegal/                                        46
                                                                                     Unfair Activities
          Extent of Locally Based Competitors                        14
                                                                                     Favoritism in Decisions of Government                                 46
          Extent of Distortive Government Subsidies 17
                                                                                     Officials
          Decentralization of Corporate Activity                     28
                                                                                     Hidden Trade Barrier Liberalization                                   45
          Intensity of Local Competition                             29
                                                                                     Efficacy of Corporate Boards                                          37
          Tariff Liberalization                                      31
                                                                                     Effectiveness of Anti-Trust Policy                                    35




   Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001)
   Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                          29                                                       Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Bureaucracy in Thailand


                 Evidence
                                                                                                       % of executives’ time
                 • Thailand ranks 79 out of 80                                                     spent with government official
                    countries on the extent of
                    bureaucratic red tap in the 2002                               15.5%                     Small
                    Global Competitiveness Report
                 • Bureaucracy inflicts the largest                                15.0%                    All Thai
                                                                                                            companies
                    burden on smaller domestic                                     14.5%
                    companies
                                                                                   14.0%
                                                                                                             Medium
                                                                                   13.5%

                 •        Many examples show that                                  13.0%
                          corruption and bureaucracy thrive                        12.5%                     Large
                          in an environment with elaborate,
                          complex regulations and                                  12.0%
                                                                                                   Thai Firms        Foreign Firms
                          administrative procedures


   Source: Thailand : Business Environment and Governance Survey, Corruption in Thailand Report,
   Office of Civil Service Commission, 2001
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                          30                                              Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Tariff Barriers

                                          Sectors                         Tariff Rates (March, 2003)


                                                              General               WTO                AFTA
                                       Food products            60 %              30 – 40 %            5%

                                     Textile and Apparel        100 %             30 – 44 %            5%
                                         Foot ware              100 %               30 %               5%

                                         Diamonds              0 – 20 %            1 – 10 %            0%

                                        Automotive            100 -200%             80 %               5%


             •        Historically, Thailand followed an import-substitution strategy based on high
                      tariffs and domestic content requirements
             •        In the 1990s, the policy changed to support the creation of manufacturing
                      export industries. Export industries could import machinery and inputs tariff-free
             •        Currently, Thailand is in the process of reducing regional tariff rates in
                      accordance with the ASEAN free trade agreement. However, tariff protection
                      remains significant in many industries and is blunting competition

Source: Sasin Study (2003)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                               31                                         Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Barriers to International Trade
                                           Automotive Industry

             • The Thai automotive industry was born as a result of trade protection

             • While the industry consists of a large number of assembly plants and
               suppliers, its ability to compete internationally rests almost entirely on
               low labor costs that compensate for low levels of productivity

             • The industry began to export only after the devaluation of the Thai
               Baht in 1997. Thai-based operations have relatively weak positions in
               international markets

             • Thailand’s progress in becoming the ASEAN automotive production
               hub is still fragile

             • The potential for growth will be limited until Thailand significantly
               improves its sophistication and technology




Source: Sasin Study (2003)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                32                             Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Automotive Clusters in the World Economy
                                     Top 25 Exporting Countries by Export Value, 2000
    Revealed Comparative
    Advantage (RCA), 2000
                2.5

                                      Japan
                2.0
                                                                                    Spain
                                                    Germany                                                             Canada
                                                                      France                                                   Mexico

                1.5                                                                  Poland Czech R.
                                                                                   Hungary
                                                                                Austria           UK
                                                                      Italy    Portugal              Brazil
                1.0
                                                                                                             Korea             USA
                                                      Sweden
                                                                                        Belgium
                                                                                           Finland
                0.5                                               Netherlands                  Switzerland
                                                                           Singapore                               China

                                                                                    Australia Thailand
                0.0
                   -3%                        -2%                  -1%                       0%                        1%                    2%
                                                          Change in World Market Share, 1995-2000                                    D
                                                                                                                                     D        = $35 billion
Note: RCA is defined as a country’s market share in the cluster divided by the country world market share across all exports
                                                                                                                                              export volume
Source: UNCTAD Trade Data. Author’s analysis.
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                             33
                                                                                                                                              in 2000
                                                                                                                                     Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Domestic Competition in Thailand



                 •        Foreign investors have significantly improved the level of
                          competition in a number of sectors such as retail

                 •        The increased focus of Thai business groups on markets where
                          they have dominating positions has reduced competitive intensity in
                          some industries

                 •        The Competition Committee has few effective instruments to act
                          against companies with market power
                           – The Competition Act does not, for example, apply to state
                             owned companies




  Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002, McKinsey 2002, Sasin Study 2003
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                       34            Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thai Policy Toward FDI
                 •        Some foreign investors have been encouraged to use older
                          technology to create more (lower paying) jobs
                 •        Historically, the government tried to channel FDI to different parts
                          of the country
                             – Recently the preferences for investing outside Bangkok have
                               been removed
                 •        Investment incentives are less attractive than, for example,
                          Malaysia and Singapore
                 •        The new strategy seeks to attract regional headquarters without
                          offering any compelling advantages versus other locations.
                 •        Government is searching to promote technology transfer in, for
                          example, electronics but success so far is limited
                 •        No convincing cluster-based approach to FDI attraction is in
                          place
                             – Special incentives exist in textiles, footwear, and food products

Source: Sasin Study (2003)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                         35                             Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Demand
     Demand
    Conditions
                                                      Demand Conditions
    Conditions
                                                  Thailand’s Relative Position


                              Competitive Advantages                                             Competitive Disadvantages
                             Relative to GDP per Capita                                          Relative to GDP per Capita
                                                        Country Ranking,                                                             Country Ranking,
                                                         Arrows indicate a                                                            Arrows indicate a
                                                      change of 5 or more                                                          change of 5 or more
                                                         ranks since 1998                                                             ranks since 1998


          Consumer Adoption of Latest Products                      21               Laws Relating to Information Technology 48
                                                                                     Stringency of Environmental Regulations                              39
                                                                                     Presence of Demanding Regulatory                                     36
                                                                                     Standards




Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001)
Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                         36                                                     Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thai Demand Conditions
                                                  Pick-up Trucks

                 •        Thailand has heavy demand for pick-up trucks that are used for
                          multiple commercial and private uses
                 •        Manufacturers react to the demand by offering more varieties of
                          pick-up truck models in Thailand than in any other national
                          market
                 •        Thailand has a strong and growing position for pick-up trucks
                          in the world market
                           – This is the only segment (apart from tires and rubber-related
                              products) in the automotive industry in which Thailand has a
                              revealed comparative advantage
                           – Thailand is the second largest producer of pick-up trucks
                              worldwide behind the United States




                 •        Seek such opportunities in other parts of Thai industry

Source: Sasin Study (2003)
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                      37                           Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Related and
  Related and
  Supporting
   Supporting                           Related and Supporting Industries
   Industries
    Industries                                     Thailand’s Relative Position


                              Competitive Advantages                                              Competitive Disadvantages
                             Relative to GDP per Capita                                           Relative to GDP per Capita
                                                        Country Ranking,                                                               Country Ranking,
                                                         Arrows indicate a                                                              Arrows indicate a
                                                      change of 5 or more                                                            change of 5 or more
                                                         ranks since 1998                                                               ranks since 1998


         Extent of Product and Process                               17               Local Availability of Specialized                                      40
         Collaboration                                                                Research and Training Services
         Local Availability of Components                            18               Local Availability of Process Machinery                                37
         and Parts
         State of Cluster Development                                23
         Local Supplier Quantity                                     29




         •        Thailand is home to an array of clusters, but clusters are shallow and are
                  characterized by weak linkages among cluster participants

   Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001)
   Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                           38                                                      Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Moving Beyond Factor Competition
                                              Policy Imperatives



                             Factor-                                    Investment-
                        Driven Economy                                Driven Economy


                • Openness to trade and                       • Increased local rivalry
                  FDI                                         • Improving factor quality,
                • Competition policy                            education
                • Protection of physical and                  • Advanced financial
                  intellectual property                         infrastructure
                • Communications and                          • Specialization of human
                  transportation                                capital
                  infrastructure                              • Cluster development (buyers,
                • Streamline government                         suppliers)
                  regulation                                  • Establish infrastructure for
                • Regional trade                                innovation


CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                  39                             Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Some Immediate Steps



                 •        Negotiate ASEAN Open Skies agreement

                 •        Reduce distortive taxes for particular product groups

                 •        Reduce capital gains tax for venture investments in smaller
                          companies

                 •        Open the telecommunication market

                 •        Negotiate FTA agreement with the United States




CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                      40                              Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thailand’s Competitiveness Agenda



                 •        Upgrade the Business Environment

                 •        Activate Cluster Development

                 •        Transform Company Strategies

                 •        Redefine the Roles of Business and Government

                 •        Decentralize More of Economic Policy to the Regional Level

                 •        Lead a Cross-National Strategy



CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                     41                              Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thailand’s Export Performance By Broad Sector
                                                                        1995-2000

                                                                    Thailand’s average change in
         World Export Share,                                          world goods export share:
                2000                                                           - 0.069%                                          Office
                 3.0%
                                                                                                                                 (3.7%, +1.3%)
                                                              Food/Beverages

                 2.5%
                                     Textiles/Apparel
                                                        Entertainment
                 2.0%
                                                                                    Semiconductors/Computers


                 1.5%                                    Personal       Housing/Household                  Power
                                                                                                                       Thailand’s average
                                                                                                                       goods export share:
                                                                    Materials/Metals               Multiple Business   1.24%
                 1.0%                                                                                        Petroleum/Chemicals
                                                        Telecommunications
                                                                                                               Forest Products

                 0.5%
                                                                          Health Care                  Defense              D
                                                                                                                            D         = $1.5 billion
                                                                                            Transportation                            export volume
                 0.0%
                                                                                                                                      in 2000
                    -1.0%                                -0.5%                          0.0%
                                                                                           +                       + 0.5%
                                                Change in Thailand’s World Export Share, 1995 - 2000


Source: UNCTAD Trade Data. Author’s analysis.
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                          42                                              Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Threats to Traditional Clusters

                 •        Thailand is losing world market position in some of its traditional
                          areas of strength, such as textiles/apparel and food products

                 •        In these clusters, Thailand firms focus on a few, labor-intensive
                          steps in the value chain. They use either imported (e.g., gold, tuna)
                          or locally-produced raw materials, and sell undifferentiated
                          products on anonymous world markets

                 •        Technology is low and not being upgraded

                 •        While these clusters provide many jobs, wages are close to the
                          Thai minimum wage

                 •        Thailand is losing market share both to lower cost locations such as
                          China and to more focused, higher cost locations such as Austria
                          (Leather) or Australia (Food/Beverages)


Source: Sasin Study, UNCTAD Trade Data. Author’s analysis.
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                           43                         Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Cluster Development Efforts in Thailand

                 •        Tourism
                           – Thailand is home to many of the components of a well-
                             functioning tourism cluster
                           – There is no overarching strategy for the cluster, despite the
                             existence of many industry associations for different parts of the
                             cluster, and of many different strategic plans
                           – The absence of a clear strategy is a key factor in the inability of
                             the cluster to capture more value from tourists

                 •        Food
                           – Government policy and private sector efforts are poorly
                             coordinated in many segments of the cluster
                                     • Import tariffs for inputs and uncoordinated government positions in
                                       international trade negotiations hurt food industries
                                     • Lack of coordination between government institutions and industry
                                       associations create ineffective cluster strategies

Source: Sasin Study, Author’s analysis.
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                               44                               Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Economic Performance of the Thai Tourism Cluster
                                                    Revenue per Tourist over Time

                                     Receipts per
                                      Tourist in
                                      Thailand

                                                                                         $1,201.12



                                                                                             In Thai Baht


                                                                                                     $749
                                                                                     In US-Dollar




                                          80   82    84   86   88   90    92   94   96     98   00



Source: TAT, World Tourism Organization
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                   45                                     Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Agricultural Productivity
                                                             Selected Countries

            Agricultural Productivity,
                      1999
                   $40,000

                   $35,000                                                                                  Australia

                   $30,000                                        Japan

                   $25,000                                                New Zealand

                   $20,000

                   $15,000
                                                                                                     Korea
                   $10,000
                                                                 Malaysia
                      $5,000
                                          Thailand                                                    South Africa
                                                                                China
                               $0
                                     0%         1%          2%            3%        4%          5%           6%                 7%

                                                     Change in Agricultural Productivity, CAGR, 1995-1999




Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                                        46                                       Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thai Agriculture

             • Thai agricultural production is low and stagnant

             • Thai agriculture acts as an overflow valve for the industrial labor market
                – Agricultural productivity increased somewhat in the 1990s when
                  subsistence farmers left agriculture to work in manufacturing
                – In the downturn after the Asian crisis, the outflow from agriculture
                  slowed and productivity growth fell back

             • Thai agriculture is divided in two groups: a few large food companies
               serving foreign markets, and many small farmers serving domestic
               markets

             • The Thai Ministry for Agriculture has a history of corruption and
               inefficiency. It is currently being restructured

             • There are local colleges that provide training for agriculture, but there
               activities are controlled centrally and are not well coordinated with
               local needs
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt               47                             Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thailand’s Cluster Vision: World Leader in Niche Markets
                                                 Selected Niches
                       Food:
                       Food:         • Important sector with declining world market position
              Kitchen of the
              Kitchen of the         • Insufficient value chain presences and lack of brands key issues
                  World
                  World

                  Fashion:
                  Fashion:           • Three (Textiles/Apparel, Jewelry, Leather) important sectors with
               Asia Tropical
               Asia Tropical           declining world market share and few linkages
                 Fashion
                  Fashion            • Insufficient value chain presence and inconsistent policy key issues

                  Tourism:
                  Tourism:           • Important sector with potential for significantly higher value creation
           Tourism Capital
           Tourism Capital           • Lack of shared vision is critical constraint
                Asia
                 Asia

                                     • Growing sector with small world market share moving gradually out of
              Automotive:
              Automotive:              protection
             Detroit of Asia
             Detroit of Asia         • Low level of productivity and innovation key issues

                 Software:
                 Software:           • Very small sector of few companies
             World Graphic
             World Graphic           • Uncompetitive business environment and lack of linkage to existing IT
             Design Center
             Design Center             activities are critical issues


                • Concentrating on areas of existing strengths provides the right basis for success
                • Focus of government policy should be on increasing Thailand’s attractiveness
                  for the cluster, not on the strategic choices of companies in the cluster
CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                       48                                       Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Cluster Development in Emerging Economies
                                             Some Principles
           • Improving the general business environment is essential, but cluster development is
             needed to attain middle-income levels

           • Developing economies should upgrade traditional clusters including agriculture, never
             abandon them

           • Recruitment of foreign direct investment should focus on existing and emerging clusters,
             not generalized appeals
              – Incentives should be weighted toward training, infrastructure, and other areas that
                 upgrade the cluster versus general subsidies and tax holidays

           • Existing MNCs can become nodes for cluster development
              – The best way to retain companies is to make them part of a cluster to support higher
                local productivity

           • Free trade zones should be organized around clusters, and regulations designed to
             encourage linkages with the local economy

           • A formal structure for cluster development is an important component of economic
             development
              – Private sector led
              – Government convening and participation
              – Seed funding for cluster assessment and the formation of cluster-based industry groups

CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                    49                                   Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Some Immediate Steps



                 •        Create private sector-led cluster competitiveness councils for
                          clusters throughout the economy
                           – Clusters willing to take responsibility for cluster development
                              qualify for matching funds
                           – Potential new cluster groups include furniture and health
                              services

                 •        Launch cluster-based efforts to improve secondary and vocational
                          education programs



                 •        Develop and publicize productivity metrics for a wide array of Thai
                          clusters


CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt                       50                             Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter
Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter

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Thailand’s competitiveness michael e porter

  • 1. Thailand’s Competitiveness: Creating the Foundations for Higher Productivity Professor Michael E. Porter Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness Harvard Business School Bangkok, Thailand 4 May 2003 This presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s articles and books, in particular, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (The Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,” in The Global Competitiveness Report 2002, (World Economic Forum, 2002), “Clusters and the New Competitive Agenda for Companies and Governments” in On Competition (Harvard Business School Press, 1998), and joint work with Dr. Christian Ketels and the Sasin Graduate School of Business on Thai competitiveness financed by the NESDB. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise - without the permission of Michael E. Porter. Further information on Professor Porter’s work and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness is available at www.isc.hbs.edu CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 1 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 2. Thailand’s Economy in 2003 • Thailand has registered economic growth through the 1990s, and attracted substantial foreign investment • The economy has achieved high employment and comparatively low poverty rates despite the Asian Crisis BUT • The Asian Crisis hit Thailand first and harder, indicating the fundamental weaknesses of the historical approach • Growth after the Crisis was driven by devaluation and domestic stimuli packages • Despite the recent growth, GDP per capita remained flat over the period since 1995 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 2 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 3. Comparative Economic Performance Selected Asian Economies Annual Growth Rate of Real GDP 30% Countries sorted by 25% 1995-2002 GDP Growth: 20% China Myanmar 15% Vietnam 10% Singapore Taiwan 5% Malaysia 0% Philippines -5% Hong Kong Indonesia -10% Thailand -15% -20% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: EIU (2002) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 3 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 4. What is Competitiveness? • Competitiveness is determined by the productivity with which a nation uses its human, capital, and natural resources. Productivity sets a nation’s or region’s standard of living (wages, returns to capital, returns to natural resource endowments) – Productivity depends both on the value of products and services (e.g. uniqueness, quality) as well as the efficiency with which they are produced – It is not what industries a nation competes in that matters for prosperity, but how firms compete in those industries – Productivity in a nation is a reflection of what both domestic and foreign firms choose to do in that location. The location of ownership is secondary for national prosperity – The productivity of “local” industries is of fundamental importance to competitiveness, not just that of traded industries – Devaluation does not make a country more competitive • Nations compete in offering the most productive environment for business • The public and private sectors play different but interrelated roles in creating a productive economy CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 4 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 5. Challenges to Thai Prosperity • Prosperity has stagnated over the period 1995 – 2002. The harder impact of the Asian Crisis outweighed the relatively lower reliance on the sluggish world IT markets • Productivity is comparatively low and growing only slowly • While export market share has stabilized after falling between 1995 and 1998, devaluation has reduced the prosperity gain for Thailand • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows are reverting back to low pre-Asian Crisis levels. FDI stock is still below regional averages • Innovation and technology performance is weak, though showing some signs of improvement • Thailand’s fundamental challenge is microeconomic • Without an improvement in microeconomic fundamentals, current growth will be short-lived • Thailand must move to a new model of competitiveness CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 5 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 6. Comparative Economic Performance Selected Middle- and Lower-Income Economies GDP per Capita, 2001, US=100 40% Hungary Argentina Slovak Republic 30% Estonia Chile Uruguay South Africa Russia Poland (30%, +4.3%) Mexico Malaysia Costa Rica Croatia Brazil Lithuania Botswana Latvia Romania 20% Thailand Namibia Tunisia (22%, +3.7%) Colombia Bulgaria Turkey Dominican Rep. Venezuela Peru El Salvador Jordan Ukraine Jamaica Philippines Morocco 10% Guatemala Sri Lanka China Ecuador Indonesia (12%, +4.5%) Honduras Bolivia Nicaragua India Vietnam Haiti Nigeria 0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% CAGR of GDP per Capita Relative to the US, 1995-2001 Source: World Development Indicators 2002 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 6 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 7. Comparative Labor Productivity Performance Selected Asian Economies Labor Productivity (GDP per Employee), 2000 $60,000 Singapore Hong Kong $50,000 Taiwan $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 Thailand Malaysia $10,000 Philippines China Indonesia Vietnam Myanmar $0 -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Growth of Labor Productivity, CAGR, 1995-2000 • Thailand’s labor productivity is far behind leading Asian economies and productivity growth is lagging badly Source: EIU (2002) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 7 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 8. Thai Productivity Cluster Examples • Tourism – Thailand generates less revenue per tourist than leading competitors, for example Indonesia – Thailand has not been able to increase the revenue per tourists over time. Even after the 1997 devaluation, revenues in terms of Thai Baht only remained stable, while tourists reduced their spending in terms of US-Dollar • Automotive – Assembly plants in Thailand produce fewer cars per employee than the international benchmark countries (11 versus 45 per year). – Low labor cost allow Thai assembly plants to be cost competitive despite a much lower level of automation – Thai-based producers have low incentives to adopt world-class technology to improve productivity, but this perpetuates low wages • Food industry – Thai companies employ workers without specific training and pay close to the minimum wage, yet complain about high turnover – Thai food processors are trapped in a low-productivity, low-wage, low-skill system. Employees leave for more productive, better paying industries Source: Sasin Study (2003) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 8 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 9. Comparative Inward Foreign Investment Flows Selected Asian Economies FDI Inflows as percentage of GDP 20% 15% Singapore 10% Malaysia 5% Philippines China Thailand 0% Indonesia -5% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 • Thailand received strong FDI inflows in the years immediately after the devaluation in 1997 but is now falling back to the FDI inflow levels of its immediate neighbors Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, SMC Analysis CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 9 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 10. Annual U.S. patents International Patenting Output per 1 million population, 2001 400 350 USA 300 Taiwan 250 Japan Sweden 200 = 10,000 Germany 150 Finland patents Israel granted in Canada 2001 100 Singapore Netherlands South Korea UK 50 New Zealand Australia Thailand 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Compound annual growth rate of US-registered patents, 1990 - 2001 • Thailand’s level of innovation as measured by U.S. patenting is insignificant Source: US Patent and Trademark Office (www.uspto.gov). Author’s analysis. CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 10 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 11. Thailand’s Competitiveness • Assessing Thailand’s Competitive Position • Thailand’s Competitiveness Agenda in 2003 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 11 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 12. Innovation and Competitiveness Prosperity Prosperity Productivity Productivity Competitiveness Innovative Capacity Innovative Capacity • Innovation is more than just scientific discovery • There are no low-tech industries, only low-tech firms CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 12 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 13. Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Macroeconomic, Political, Legal, and Social Context for Development Context for Development Microeconomic Foundations of Development Microeconomic Foundations of Development Sophistication Sophistication Quality of the Quality of the of Company of Company Microeconomic Microeconomic Operations and Operations and Business Business Strategy Strategy Environment Environment • A sound macroeconomic, political, legal, and social context creates the potential for competitiveness, but is not sufficient • Competitiveness ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the sophistication of local companies and local competition CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 13 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 14. Integration of Macro- and Microeconomic Reforms Stability and confidence support investment and upgrading Macro reform Micro alone leads Create the opportunity Required to achieve reform is to short for productivity productivity impeded by term capital macro inflows Macroeconomic Microeconomic economic and growth reform reform volatility that spurts reduces that company ultimately investment are not Productivity growth allows economic sustainable growth and rising incomes without inflation, making macroeconomic stability easier to achieve CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 14 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 15. Productivity and the Microeconomic Business Environment Context for Context for Firm Firm Strategy Strategy and Rivalry and Rivalry  A local context and rules that encourage investment and sustained upgrading – e.g., Intellectual property Factor Factor protection Demand Demand (Input) (Input) Meritocratic incentive systems  Conditions Conditions Conditions Conditions across all major institutions  Open and vigorous competition among locally based rivals  Presence of high quality,  Sophisticated and demanding local specialized inputs customer(s) available to firms Related and  Local customer needs that anticipate – Human resources Related and Supporting those elsewhere – Capital resources Supporting  Unusual local demand in specialized – Physical infrastructure Industries Industries segments that can be served nationally – Administrative infrastructure and globally – Information infrastructure – Scientific and technological  Access to capable, locally based suppliers infrastructure and firms in related fields – Natural resources  Presence of clusters instead of isolated industries • Successful economic development is a process of successive economic upgrading, in which the business environment in a nation evolves to support and encourage increasingly sophisticated ways of competing CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 15 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 16. The California Wine Cluster Winemaking Winemaking Equipment Equipment Grapestock Grapestock Barrels Barrels State Government Agencies (e.g., Select Committee on Wine Production and Economy) Fertilizer, Pesticides, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Bottles Bottles Herbicides Herbicides Grape Harvesting Caps and Corks Caps and Corks Grape Harvesting Equipment Equipment Labels Labels Irrigation Technology Irrigation Technology Wineries/Processing Wineries/Processing Growers/Vineyards Growers/Vineyards Facilities Facilities Public Relations and Public Relations and Advertising Advertising Specialized Publications Specialized Publications (e.g., Wine Spectator, (e.g., Wine Spectator, Trade Journal) Trade Journal) California California Educational, Research, & Trade Educational, Research, & Trade Tourism Cluster Tourism Cluster Agricultural Cluster Agricultural Cluster Organizations (e.g. Wine Institute, Organizations (e.g. Wine Institute, UC Davis, Culinary Institutes) UC Davis, Culinary Institutes) Food Cluster Food Cluster Sources: California Wine Institute, Internet search, California State Legislature. Based on research by MBA 1997 students R. Alexander, R. Arney, N. Black, E. Frost, and A. Shivananda. CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 16 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 17. Levels of Clusters • There is often an array of clusters in a given field in different locations, each with different levels of specialization and sophistication • Global innovation centers, such as Silicon Valley in semiconductors, are few in number. If there are multiple innovation centers, they normally specialize in different market segments • Other clusters focus on manufacturing, outsourced service functions, or play the role of regional assembly or service centers • Firms based in the most advanced clusters often seed or enhance clusters in other locations in order to reduce the risk of a single site, access lower cost inputs, or better serve particular regional markets • The challenge for an economy is to move from isolated firms to an array of clusters, and then to upgrade the breadth and sophistication of clusters to more advanced activities CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 17 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 18. Levels of Clusters Leading Footwear Clusters Romania Portugal • Production subsidiaries • Production of Italian companies • Focus on short- • Focus on lower to production runs in the medium price range medium price range Italy • Design, marketing, and production of premium shoes • Export widely to the world market United States Vietnam/Indonesia • Design and marketing • OEM Production • Focus on specific market China • Focus on the low cost segments like sport and • OEM Production segment mainly for the recreational shoes and boots • Focus on low cost European market • Manufacturing only in segment mainly for the selected lines such as hand- US market sewn casual shoes and boots Source: Research by HBS student teams in 2002 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 18 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 19. Institutions for Collaboration General • Institutions for collaboration (IFC) are formal and informal organizations that • Chambers of Commerce - facilitate the exchange of information • Professional associations and technology • School networks - conduct joint activities • University partner groups - foster coordination among firms • Religious networks • Joint private/public advisory • IFCs can improve the business environment councils by • Competitiveness councils - creating relationships and level of trust that make them more effective - defining of common standards Cluster-specific - conducting or facilitating the organization • Industry associations of collective action in areas such as • Specialized professional procurement, information gathering, or associations and societies international marketing • Alumni groups of core cluster - defining and communicating common companies beliefs and attitudes • Incubators - providing mechanisms to develop a common economic or cluster agenda CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 19 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 20. Influences on Competitiveness Multiple Geographic Levels World Economy Broad Economic Areas Groups of Neighboring Nations Nations States, Provinces Cities, Metropolitan Areas CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 20 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 21. Specialization of Regional Economies Select U.S. Geographic Areas Denver, CO Denver, CO Chicago Chicago Leather and Sporting Goods Leather and Sporting Goods Communications Equipment Communications Equipment Oil and Gas Boston Boston Oil and Gas Processed Food Processed Food Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Analytical Instruments Analytical Instruments Seattle-Bellevue- Seattle-Bellevue- Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Heavy Machinery Heavy Machinery Everett, WA Education and Knowledge Creation Education and Knowledge Creation Everett, WA Communications Equipment Aerospace Vehicles Wichita, KS Pittsburgh, PA Communications Equipment Aerospace Vehicles Wichita, KS Pittsburgh, PA and Defense and Defense Aerospace Vehicles and Aerospace Vehicles and Construction Materials Construction Materials Fishing and Fishing Fishing and Fishing Defense Defense Metal Manufacturing Metal Manufacturing Products Products Heavy Machinery Heavy Machinery Education and Knowledge Education and Knowledge Analytical Instruments Analytical Instruments Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Creation Creation San Francisco- Oakland-San Jose Bay Area Communications Equipment Agricultural Raleigh-Durham, NC Raleigh-Durham, NC Products Communications Equipment Communications Equipment Information Information Technology Information Technology Technology Education and Education and Knowledge Creation Knowledge Creation Los Angeles Area Apparel Atlanta, GA San Diego Atlanta, GA Building Fixtures, San Diego Construction Materials Leather and Sporting Goods Construction Materials Equipment and Leather and Sporting Goods Transportation and Logistics Power Generation Houston Transportation and Logistics Services Power Generation Houston Business Services Education and Knowledge Heavy Construction Services Business Services Entertainment Education and Knowledge Heavy Construction Services Creation Creation Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Note: Clusters listed are the three highest ranking clusters in terms of share of national employment Source: Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 21 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 22. Stages of Competitive Development Factor-Driven Investment- Innovation- Economy Driven Economy Driven Economy Input Efficiency Through Unique Cost Heavy Investment Value Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, The Free Press, 1990 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 22 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 23. Thailand’s Competitiveness Agenda • Upgrade the Business Environment • Activate Cluster Development • Transform Company Strategies • Redefine the Roles of Business and Government • Decentralize More of Economic Policy to the Regional Level • Lead a Cross-National Strategy CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 23 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 24. National Business Environment Overview Thailand’s Relative Strengths and Weaknesses Context for Context for Firm Firm Strategy Strategy and Rivalry and Rivalry + Inward foreign investment has raised the level of competition – Most companies compete on low Factor Factor input costs and invest little in creating capabilities Demand Demand (Input) (Input) – Complex, high tariffs and weak anti- Conditions Conditions Conditions Conditions trust laws impede competition – Government bureaucracy and + Thailand has a rich wildlife, corruption create significant costs beautiful locations, and some – Local Thai demand tends to be natural resources unsophisticated and does not + Physical infrastructure, especially generally lead international trends roads, is good Related and Related and + In pick-up trucks, however, – Infrastructure in Bangkok is overtaxed Supporting Supporting Thailand is one of the most – The general skill level of the Thai Industries developed markets in the Industries labor force is low, and educational world programs do not match company needs – Most Thai clusters are focused on a – Communication networks are few labor-intensive stages of their expensive and weak outside of industries’ value chain Bangkok – Cluster organizations exist, but tend to – Inadequate development of financial be focused solely on lobbying markets – Low level of domestic technological CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 24 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 25. Educational Performance Selected Asian Countries Gross Enrolment in Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary Education, 1999 100 90 82 82 80 75 73 70 67 66 65 63 60 58 60 55 55 40 20 0 R) ar a . f nd ia na ia am n a e s ep .o di k pa ne or es ys nm A la an hi In R p N (S ap pi Ja a ai n C Re ya iL al do et ilip Th . ng a em M M Vi Sr in a, In Ph Si Ch D re Ko 's g, le n op Ko Pe g on o La H Source: UN – Human Development Indicators CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 25 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 26. Educational System Quality Employer Satisfaction Very satisfied Satisfied 3 9 8 29 41 63 Neutral 28 35 7 Dissatisfied 12 Very dissatisfied 3 28 19 12 Vocational Under-graduate Post graduate level level level • Many Thai employers are unsatisfied with the quality of the education system at the more advanced levels, especially at the vocational level Source : TDRI Survey 2001 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 26 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 27. Quality of the Educational System Cluster Examples • Tourism – Graduates from many educational institutions are not trained for tasks that are essential in tourism-related businesses – More than 40% of tourism-related courses prepare graduates for management positions. However, management positions account for only 3% of the workforce needs in the Thai tourism cluster • Automotive – The capabilities of production engineers and technicians graduating from local educational institutions are often insufficient – Companies are forced to provide extensive in-house training to integrate new hires • Information Technology – IT executives report that nearly 50% of all graduates need to be significantly retrained before being useful Source: Sasin Study (2003) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 27 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 28. Factor Factor (Input) (Input) Science and Technology Conditions Conditions Thailand’s Relative Position Competitive Advantages Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more change of 5 or more ranks since 1998 ranks since 1998 University/Industry Research Collaboration 29 Availability of Scientists and Engineers 55 Quality of Scientific Research Institutions 45 Quality of Math and Science Education 41 Intellectual Property Protection 38 • Thailand is only slowly moving towards a system with high-quality research institutions and the appropriate incentives for R&D and commercialization Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001) Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 28 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 29. Context for Firm Context for Firm Strategy Strategy Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry and Rivalry and Rivalry Thailand’s Relative Position Competitive Advantages Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more change of 5 or ranks since 1998 more ranks since 1998 Cooperation in Labor-Employer Relations 9 Costs of Other Firms' Illegal/ 46 Unfair Activities Extent of Locally Based Competitors 14 Favoritism in Decisions of Government 46 Extent of Distortive Government Subsidies 17 Officials Decentralization of Corporate Activity 28 Hidden Trade Barrier Liberalization 45 Intensity of Local Competition 29 Efficacy of Corporate Boards 37 Tariff Liberalization 31 Effectiveness of Anti-Trust Policy 35 Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001) Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 29 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 30. Bureaucracy in Thailand Evidence % of executives’ time • Thailand ranks 79 out of 80 spent with government official countries on the extent of bureaucratic red tap in the 2002 15.5% Small Global Competitiveness Report • Bureaucracy inflicts the largest 15.0% All Thai companies burden on smaller domestic 14.5% companies 14.0% Medium 13.5% • Many examples show that 13.0% corruption and bureaucracy thrive 12.5% Large in an environment with elaborate, complex regulations and 12.0% Thai Firms Foreign Firms administrative procedures Source: Thailand : Business Environment and Governance Survey, Corruption in Thailand Report, Office of Civil Service Commission, 2001 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 30 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 31. Tariff Barriers Sectors Tariff Rates (March, 2003) General WTO AFTA Food products 60 % 30 – 40 % 5% Textile and Apparel 100 % 30 – 44 % 5% Foot ware 100 % 30 % 5% Diamonds 0 – 20 % 1 – 10 % 0% Automotive 100 -200% 80 % 5% • Historically, Thailand followed an import-substitution strategy based on high tariffs and domestic content requirements • In the 1990s, the policy changed to support the creation of manufacturing export industries. Export industries could import machinery and inputs tariff-free • Currently, Thailand is in the process of reducing regional tariff rates in accordance with the ASEAN free trade agreement. However, tariff protection remains significant in many industries and is blunting competition Source: Sasin Study (2003) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 31 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 32. Barriers to International Trade Automotive Industry • The Thai automotive industry was born as a result of trade protection • While the industry consists of a large number of assembly plants and suppliers, its ability to compete internationally rests almost entirely on low labor costs that compensate for low levels of productivity • The industry began to export only after the devaluation of the Thai Baht in 1997. Thai-based operations have relatively weak positions in international markets • Thailand’s progress in becoming the ASEAN automotive production hub is still fragile • The potential for growth will be limited until Thailand significantly improves its sophistication and technology Source: Sasin Study (2003) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 32 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 33. Automotive Clusters in the World Economy Top 25 Exporting Countries by Export Value, 2000 Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), 2000 2.5 Japan 2.0 Spain Germany Canada France Mexico 1.5 Poland Czech R. Hungary Austria UK Italy Portugal Brazil 1.0 Korea USA Sweden Belgium Finland 0.5 Netherlands Switzerland Singapore China Australia Thailand 0.0 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% Change in World Market Share, 1995-2000 D D = $35 billion Note: RCA is defined as a country’s market share in the cluster divided by the country world market share across all exports export volume Source: UNCTAD Trade Data. Author’s analysis. CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 33 in 2000 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 34. Domestic Competition in Thailand • Foreign investors have significantly improved the level of competition in a number of sectors such as retail • The increased focus of Thai business groups on markets where they have dominating positions has reduced competitive intensity in some industries • The Competition Committee has few effective instruments to act against companies with market power – The Competition Act does not, for example, apply to state owned companies Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002, McKinsey 2002, Sasin Study 2003 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 34 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 35. Thai Policy Toward FDI • Some foreign investors have been encouraged to use older technology to create more (lower paying) jobs • Historically, the government tried to channel FDI to different parts of the country – Recently the preferences for investing outside Bangkok have been removed • Investment incentives are less attractive than, for example, Malaysia and Singapore • The new strategy seeks to attract regional headquarters without offering any compelling advantages versus other locations. • Government is searching to promote technology transfer in, for example, electronics but success so far is limited • No convincing cluster-based approach to FDI attraction is in place – Special incentives exist in textiles, footwear, and food products Source: Sasin Study (2003) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 35 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 36. Demand Demand Conditions Demand Conditions Conditions Thailand’s Relative Position Competitive Advantages Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more change of 5 or more ranks since 1998 ranks since 1998 Consumer Adoption of Latest Products 21 Laws Relating to Information Technology 48 Stringency of Environmental Regulations 39 Presence of Demanding Regulatory 36 Standards Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001) Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 36 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 37. Thai Demand Conditions Pick-up Trucks • Thailand has heavy demand for pick-up trucks that are used for multiple commercial and private uses • Manufacturers react to the demand by offering more varieties of pick-up truck models in Thailand than in any other national market • Thailand has a strong and growing position for pick-up trucks in the world market – This is the only segment (apart from tires and rubber-related products) in the automotive industry in which Thailand has a revealed comparative advantage – Thailand is the second largest producer of pick-up trucks worldwide behind the United States • Seek such opportunities in other parts of Thai industry Source: Sasin Study (2003) CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 37 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 38. Related and Related and Supporting Supporting Related and Supporting Industries Industries Industries Thailand’s Relative Position Competitive Advantages Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more change of 5 or more ranks since 1998 ranks since 1998 Extent of Product and Process 17 Local Availability of Specialized 40 Collaboration Research and Training Services Local Availability of Components 18 Local Availability of Process Machinery 37 and Parts State of Cluster Development 23 Local Supplier Quantity 29 • Thailand is home to an array of clusters, but clusters are shallow and are characterized by weak linkages among cluster participants Note: Rank by countries; overall Thailand ranks 35 out of 80 countries (35 on National Business Environment, 53 on GDP pc 2001) Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2002 CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 38 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 39. Moving Beyond Factor Competition Policy Imperatives Factor- Investment- Driven Economy Driven Economy • Openness to trade and • Increased local rivalry FDI • Improving factor quality, • Competition policy education • Protection of physical and • Advanced financial intellectual property infrastructure • Communications and • Specialization of human transportation capital infrastructure • Cluster development (buyers, • Streamline government suppliers) regulation • Establish infrastructure for • Regional trade innovation CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 39 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 40. Some Immediate Steps • Negotiate ASEAN Open Skies agreement • Reduce distortive taxes for particular product groups • Reduce capital gains tax for venture investments in smaller companies • Open the telecommunication market • Negotiate FTA agreement with the United States CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 40 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 41. Thailand’s Competitiveness Agenda • Upgrade the Business Environment • Activate Cluster Development • Transform Company Strategies • Redefine the Roles of Business and Government • Decentralize More of Economic Policy to the Regional Level • Lead a Cross-National Strategy CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 41 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 42. Thailand’s Export Performance By Broad Sector 1995-2000 Thailand’s average change in World Export Share, world goods export share: 2000 - 0.069% Office 3.0% (3.7%, +1.3%) Food/Beverages 2.5% Textiles/Apparel Entertainment 2.0% Semiconductors/Computers 1.5% Personal Housing/Household Power Thailand’s average goods export share: Materials/Metals Multiple Business 1.24% 1.0% Petroleum/Chemicals Telecommunications Forest Products 0.5% Health Care Defense D D = $1.5 billion Transportation export volume 0.0% in 2000 -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% + + 0.5% Change in Thailand’s World Export Share, 1995 - 2000 Source: UNCTAD Trade Data. Author’s analysis. CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 42 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 43. Threats to Traditional Clusters • Thailand is losing world market position in some of its traditional areas of strength, such as textiles/apparel and food products • In these clusters, Thailand firms focus on a few, labor-intensive steps in the value chain. They use either imported (e.g., gold, tuna) or locally-produced raw materials, and sell undifferentiated products on anonymous world markets • Technology is low and not being upgraded • While these clusters provide many jobs, wages are close to the Thai minimum wage • Thailand is losing market share both to lower cost locations such as China and to more focused, higher cost locations such as Austria (Leather) or Australia (Food/Beverages) Source: Sasin Study, UNCTAD Trade Data. Author’s analysis. CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 43 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 44. Cluster Development Efforts in Thailand • Tourism – Thailand is home to many of the components of a well- functioning tourism cluster – There is no overarching strategy for the cluster, despite the existence of many industry associations for different parts of the cluster, and of many different strategic plans – The absence of a clear strategy is a key factor in the inability of the cluster to capture more value from tourists • Food – Government policy and private sector efforts are poorly coordinated in many segments of the cluster • Import tariffs for inputs and uncoordinated government positions in international trade negotiations hurt food industries • Lack of coordination between government institutions and industry associations create ineffective cluster strategies Source: Sasin Study, Author’s analysis. CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 44 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 45. Economic Performance of the Thai Tourism Cluster Revenue per Tourist over Time Receipts per Tourist in Thailand $1,201.12 In Thai Baht $749 In US-Dollar 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 Source: TAT, World Tourism Organization CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 45 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 46. Agricultural Productivity Selected Countries Agricultural Productivity, 1999 $40,000 $35,000 Australia $30,000 Japan $25,000 New Zealand $20,000 $15,000 Korea $10,000 Malaysia $5,000 Thailand South Africa China $0 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Change in Agricultural Productivity, CAGR, 1995-1999 Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 46 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 47. Thai Agriculture • Thai agricultural production is low and stagnant • Thai agriculture acts as an overflow valve for the industrial labor market – Agricultural productivity increased somewhat in the 1990s when subsistence farmers left agriculture to work in manufacturing – In the downturn after the Asian crisis, the outflow from agriculture slowed and productivity growth fell back • Thai agriculture is divided in two groups: a few large food companies serving foreign markets, and many small farmers serving domestic markets • The Thai Ministry for Agriculture has a history of corruption and inefficiency. It is currently being restructured • There are local colleges that provide training for agriculture, but there activities are controlled centrally and are not well coordinated with local needs CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 47 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 48. Thailand’s Cluster Vision: World Leader in Niche Markets Selected Niches Food: Food: • Important sector with declining world market position Kitchen of the Kitchen of the • Insufficient value chain presences and lack of brands key issues World World Fashion: Fashion: • Three (Textiles/Apparel, Jewelry, Leather) important sectors with Asia Tropical Asia Tropical declining world market share and few linkages Fashion Fashion • Insufficient value chain presence and inconsistent policy key issues Tourism: Tourism: • Important sector with potential for significantly higher value creation Tourism Capital Tourism Capital • Lack of shared vision is critical constraint Asia Asia • Growing sector with small world market share moving gradually out of Automotive: Automotive: protection Detroit of Asia Detroit of Asia • Low level of productivity and innovation key issues Software: Software: • Very small sector of few companies World Graphic World Graphic • Uncompetitive business environment and lack of linkage to existing IT Design Center Design Center activities are critical issues • Concentrating on areas of existing strengths provides the right basis for success • Focus of government policy should be on increasing Thailand’s attractiveness for the cluster, not on the strategic choices of companies in the cluster CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 48 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 49. Cluster Development in Emerging Economies Some Principles • Improving the general business environment is essential, but cluster development is needed to attain middle-income levels • Developing economies should upgrade traditional clusters including agriculture, never abandon them • Recruitment of foreign direct investment should focus on existing and emerging clusters, not generalized appeals – Incentives should be weighted toward training, infrastructure, and other areas that upgrade the cluster versus general subsidies and tax holidays • Existing MNCs can become nodes for cluster development – The best way to retain companies is to make them part of a cluster to support higher local productivity • Free trade zones should be organized around clusters, and regulations designed to encourage linkages with the local economy • A formal structure for cluster development is an important component of economic development – Private sector led – Government convening and participation – Seed funding for cluster assessment and the formation of cluster-based industry groups CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 49 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter
  • 50. Some Immediate Steps • Create private sector-led cluster competitiveness councils for clusters throughout the economy – Clusters willing to take responsibility for cluster development qualify for matching funds – Potential new cluster groups include furniture and health services • Launch cluster-based efforts to improve secondary and vocational education programs • Develop and publicize productivity metrics for a wide array of Thai clusters CAON Thailand 2003 05-04-03 CK.ppt 50 Copyright 2003 © Professor Michael E. Porter

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. 2 2
  2. Talking Points: 1) Low cost to high value: prosperous regions are not those with a low cost structure, but rather those with high innovation output. 2) Focus on regions: Important decisions are made in Washington DC, but increasingly it is local strategies that most affect a region’s competitiveness and prosperity. 3) The current economic troubles are cyclical not structural. Economic stimulus policies from Washington are important, but long term prosperity will depend more on increasing innovation. This depends largely on decisions made in the regions.
  3. 7 7
  4. 38 Government has worked to encourage sharing State markets the presence of this industry all around the world
  5. Industry associations are not used to their full potential Evolve from industry/trade to cluster associations