1. Corn, Cattle and Confusion
Frayne Olson, PhD
Crop Economist/Marketing Specialist
NDSU Extension Service
ND Agricultural Experiment Station
Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics

2. Today's Topics
• Review October 11, 2012 WASDE
– Where are we now (Where have we been).
• Are prices high enough to ration use?
• What does this mean for 2013 acreage and
production?
• What are your questions!!

7. Dec CBOT Corn
DTN – Prophet X 11-07-2012 am

8. Corn Update

9. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep) 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. 91.9 Mill. A. 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A. 87.4 Mill. A. 87.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 147.2 bu. 122.8 bu. 122.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 1,128 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 988 Mill. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. Bu. 10,727 Mill. Bu. 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

10. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep) 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. Core91.9 Mill. A.
Issue!! 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A.
U.S. will not produce 87.4 Mill. A. 87.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. enough corn to bu.
147.2 meet 122.8 bu. 122.0 bu.
Begin Stocks needs. Mill. Bu.
1,128 1,181 Mill. Bu. 988 Mill. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. Bu. 10,727 Mill. Bu. 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Who will use less!
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

11. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep) 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. 91.9 Mill. A. 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A. 87.4 Mill. A. 87.7 Mill. A.
Both Yield and
Yield/Harvest A. 147.2 bu. 122.8 bu. 122.0 bu.
Harvested Acres are still
Begin Stocks being debated. Mill. Bu.
1,128 1,181 Mill. Bu. 988 Mill. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. Bu. 10,727 Mill. Bu. 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Production is the real
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu.
number to watch!
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

12. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep) 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. 91.9 Mill. A. 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A. 87.4 Mill. A. 87.7 Mill. A.
Industry Estimates:
Yield/Harvest A. 147.2 bu. 122.8 bu. 122.0 bu.
Begin Stocks = 10.881 Mill Bu.
High 1,128 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 988 Mill. Bu.
Low = 10.100 Mill. Bu. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. 10,727 Mill. Bu. 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu.
Avg. = 10.629 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

13. What is the U.S. trend line yield?
180
160
140
Bushels /Acre
120
Average Yield
Trend Line
100
80
60
Oct. 11, 2012 WASDE – Feed Grains Data Base Table 1

14. What is the U.S. trend line yield?
180
160
140
Bushels /Acre
120
Average Yield
Trend Line
100
80
2012 ≈ 122.0 bu./a.
38.0 bu. below
60
trend line!
Oct. 11, 2012 WASDE – Feed Grains Data Base Table 1

15. What is the U.S. trend line yield?
180
160
140
Bushels /Acre
120
Average Yield
Trend Line
100
80
1983 = -21.6 (-21%)
60 1988 = -28.0 (-25%)
1993 = -21.8 (-18%)
2012 = -38.0 (-24%)
Oct. 11, 2012 WASDE – Feed Grains Data Base Table 1

16. Have Production estimates stabilized?
Who will use less corn?

17. Corn - Total Use
(Billion Bushels)
7.00
6.00
5.00
Feed & Residual
Billion Bushels
4.00
Ethanol
3.00
2.00 Non-Ethanol
Food, Seed &
1.00 Industrial
0.00
Oct. 11, 2012 WASDE Report & USDA – Feed Grains Data Base Table 4

18. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep) 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. 91.9 Mill. A. 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A. 87.4 Mill. A.
Will the ethanol 87.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 147.2 bu. industry use bu. less
122.8 10% 122.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 1,128 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
corn? 988 Mill. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. Bu. 10,727 Mill. Bu. 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

19. 1,000 Barrels/Day
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
Jun 04, 2010
Jul 04, 2010
Aug 04, 2010
Sep 04, 2010
Oct 04, 2010
Nov 04, 2010
Dec 04, 2010
Jan 04, 2011
Feb 04, 2011
Mar 04, 2011
Apr 04, 2011
May 04, 2011
Jun 04, 2011
Weekly Production
Jul 04, 2011
Aug 04, 2011
Sep 04, 2011
Oct 04, 2011
Nov 04, 2011
Dec 04, 2011
Jan 04, 2012
Feb 04, 2012
(06/04/2010 – 10/26/2012)
Mar 04, 2012
USDA Est. Corn Use
Apr 04, 2012
May 04, 2012
Jun 04, 2012
Weekly Ethanol Production
Jul 04, 2012
Aug 04, 2012
Sep 04, 2012
Oct 04, 2012
Nov 04, 2012
Dec 04, 2012
EIA September Short Term Energy Outlook & EIA Custom Query

20. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep) 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. 91.9 Mill. A. 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A. 87.4 Mill. A.
Will corn exports drop 87.7 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 147.2 bu. by 25%?
122.8 bu. 122.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 1,128 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 988 Mill. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. Bu. 10,727 Mill. Bu. 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

21. Weekly Corn Export Sales
(06/10/2010 – 10/25/2012)
1,400,000
1,200,000
Bushels/Week
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
USDA Exports Actual Exports
USDA-FSA Weekly Export Sales Report & Oct. 11, 2012 WASDE

22. World Corn Prod, Use & Stocks/Use
(Million Metric Ton)
900.00 0.6000
Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use
800.00
0.5000
Million Metric Tons
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
700.00
0.4000
600.00
0.3000
500.00
0.2000
400.00
300.00 0.1000
Oct.11, 2012 USDA -WASDE & PSD Custom Query

23. Corn Supply & Demand Table
Will feed use drop by
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep)
9.0%? 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. 91.9 Mill. A. 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
This value will be the
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A. 87.4 Mill. A. 87.7 Mill. A.
most difficult to track!
Yield/Harvest A. 147.2 bu. 122.8 bu. 122.0 bu.
Begin Stocks Quarterly Grain Stocks
1,128 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 988 Mill. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. Bu. 10,727 Mill. Bu. 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu. 75 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

24. Corn Supply & Demand Table
U.S. Corn 2011/2012 (Est) 2012/2013 (Sep) 2012/2013 (Oct)
Planted A. 91.9 Mill. A. 96.4 Mill. A. 96.9 Mill. A.
Projected 5.5%
Harvested A. 84.0 Mill. A. 87.4 Mill. A. 87.7 Mill. A.
Stocks/Use Ratio
Yield/Harvest A. 147.2 bu. 122.8 bu. 122.0 bu.
Begin Stocks 1,128 Mill. Bu.
Lowest sinceMill. Bu.
1,181 1995/96, 988 Mill. Bu.
Production 12,358 Mill. Bu. 10,727 Mill. Bu.
which was record low 10,706 Mill. Bu.
Imports 25 Mill. Bu. percentage. Bu.
75 Mill. 75 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 13,511 Mill. Bu. 11,983 Mill. Bu. 11,769 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 4,562 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu. 4,150 Mill. Bu.
Food, Seed, Ind. 6,421 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu. 5,850 Mill. Bu.
Ethanol 5,000 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu. 4,500 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,543 Mill. Bu. 1,250 Mill. Bu. 1,150 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 12,526 Mill. Bu. 11,250 Mill. Bu. 11,150 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 988 Mill. Bu. 733 Mill. Bu. 619 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Oct. 11, 2012

25. Corn – Total Production & Use
(Billion Bushels)
14.00 0.500
Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use
13.00 0.450
12.00 0.400
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
11.00 0.350
Billion Bushels
10.00 0.300
9.00 0.250
8.00 0.200
7.00 0.150
6.00 0.100
5.00 0.050
4.00 0.000
Oct. 11, 2012 WASDE Report & USDA – Feed Grains Data Base Table 4

26. Price vs. Stocks/Use Ratio
1993/94 to 2012/13
13.00
1993/94 to
11.00 2006/07
US Dollar/Bushel
9.00 7.80
7.00 6.22
5.18
5.00 4.20 4.06
3.24 3.55
3.00
1.00
0.030 0.050 0.070 0.090 0.110 0.130 0.150 0.170 0.190 0.210
Percent Stocks/Use
Historical Price Forecasted Price

27. Price vs. Stocks/Use Ratio
1993/94 to 2012/13
13.00
1995/96
11.00
US Dollar/Bushel
9.00 7.80
7.00 6.22
5.18
5.00 4.20 4.06
3.24 3.55
3.00
1.00
0.030 0.050 0.070 0.090 0.110 0.130 0.150 0.170 0.190 0.210
Percent Stocks/Use
Historical Price Forecasted Price

28. Price vs. Stocks/Use Ratio
1993/94 to 2012/13
13.00
11.00
2007/08 to
US Dollar/Bushel
9.00 7.80
2012/13
7.00 6.22
5.18
5.00 4.20 4.06
3.55
3.00
1.00
0.030 0.050 0.070 0.090 0.110 0.130 0.150 0.170 0.190 0.210
Percent Stocks/Use
Historical Price Forecasted Price

30. QUESTIONS &
COMMENTS?
Frayne Olson
Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Econ.
NDSU Dept. 7110
P.O. Box 6050
Fargo, ND 58108-6050
701-231-7377
frayne.olson@ndsu.edu
http://www.ndsu.edu/cropeconomics