4. The Most Correct Pundit(s) In All the Land
Prize: Gold Stars
To give credit where it's due, three of our predictors, two of whom might not generally fall in the "pundit"
category, got the electoral vote breakdown just right. They deserve gold medals, but since this is just a blog
post, they will have to settle with their names in bold, bullet points, and the title of best ever. Also deserving of
this medal is our one pundit who got the closest to nailing the popular vote.
● Nate Silver. You have probably already heard about how well this New York Times's number cruncher did
this election season. But now that it's official, official, we can officially call him the most accurate electoral
college predictor of 2012, with his 332-206 breakdown, including the close race in Florida. He also did
pretty well on popular vote, which RealClearPolitics has at 50.4 to 48. His came in at 50.8 to 48.3. Not
bad.
● Markos Moulitsas, The Daily Kos. He came to the right conclusion with the following logic. "Currently,
national polling assumes a big dropoff from registered voters to likely voters. I don't believe that'll be the
case," he wrote. And, while it looks like voter turnout was lower than 2008, his prediction still came out
right. Well done.
● Drew Linzer, Emory. Using a statistical model, this political science professor got it right. Math for the win,
again.
● Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect. He didn't get the electoral college right, giving Florida to Mitt. But
he did get closest to the popular vote with a prediction of 50.4 to 48.2.
8. Jamelle Bouie http://propect.org
President Obama will win reelection and keep every state where he currently
holds a lead. It looks like Obama will lose around 2.5 points from his national
vote share in 2008.
This is a bit crude, but if you subtract that from his 2008 totals in every swing
state, you end up with this map, and my prediction for November 6:
An Obama win in New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado,
and Nevada
Romney wins in North Carolina and Florida.
That means the president claims 303 electoral votes to Romney’s 235, and he
ekes out a popular-vote victory of 50.4 percent to Romney’s 48.2.
How do I figure all that? Averaging the polling averages,
Obama holds greater than 2-point leads in Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and
New Hampshire.
Likewise, Romney holds a greater than 2-point lead in North Carolina and a
slight advantage in Florida.
