1. International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis
Systems analysis and
methodological development for
application in critical areas of
global change – major focus:
POPULATION
ENERGY
LAND USE & FORESTRY
EVOLUTION & ECOLOGY
ATMOSPHERIC
POLLUTION &
MITIGATION
DISASTER & RISK
Funded by 19 nations.

2. Game Changers Project
Partnerit
Sitra, TEM, Huoltovarmuuskeskus, UPM
Kymmene, Metso, Itella, Tekes,
EtlajaSanoma
Skotlanninhallitus
www.iiasa.ac.at

3. Game Changers Project
Tulokset
15.6.2011
J. Casti, L. Ilmola, P. Klimek, O. Lehtonen, M. Lex, J. Liesio,
P. Rouvinen and U. Bilge
J. Honkatukia, P. Ormerod, A. Salo, S. Thurner, M. Tynkkynen, M. Wilenius
IIASA Exploratory Projects/ Xevents
www.iiasa.ac.at

4. Epävarmuus lisääntyy
Game Changer
Historia:megatrenditja
trendit
Huhuun perustuvien tappioiden
syntyminen Espanjan
Lehman Brothersin 9/2008
vihannesviennille, tai
ranskalaisten maanviljelijöiden konkurssin todennaköisyys oli
myynnin romahtaminen 90%, 0,00000000000000000000007
ei saanut mitaan
todennäköisyyttä.

5. Game Changers 2/2010-3/2011
Forest industry
Planning for uncertainty
G
T
N
Global economic Com. technology
Ind. Ecosystem simulation
Ind. ecosystem simulation
s system 2030?
i
m
Mitä kaikki tämä
u Structural Life Science vaikuttaa pienen
l scenarios Planning for uncertainty avoimen talouden
a kilpailukykyyn?
t
o Food & drink
r Planning for uncertainty
Game
Changers
Digitalization
Tools for attribution theory
5

6. Yhteenveto
ESIMERKKEJÄTULOKSISTA

7. Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa
Stable& Turbulent Volatile World
World
Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030
Scen
ario in
brief  Syklisyyskasvaa
 Tempo tiivistyy
The structure of the global The global economic
economy is hierarchical system is unpredictable
(one world or blocs). and behavior is very  Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasykl
Economy is pretty stable volatile. Small change in inmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoiminta
(rules) until the shock of external or internal
power centers causes huge conditions may cause a malliin
turbulence. major shift in the
behavior.
Prerequi Fast climate change, Global growth period 2010-
sites resource scarcity severe, 2020, technology
capitalism (financial system) development fast (does not
fails in some areas solve scarcityproblems)
Drivers Globalization, many relatively Knowledge drives economy,
strong nations, strong quantum computing, zero
ideologies, clash of cultures, energy sources , global
political power strong, wars financial system collapsed,
(trade/military conflicts) globalization is over, no
reliance on policy makers
Structure Strong IPR, public sector role Open source development,
drivers strong, climate change is
successful global operations mitigated,/failure, resource
track record scarcity, no ideologies

8. Globaalintaloudensyklisyyskasvaa
Stable& Turbulent Volatile World
World
Globaalitalousjärjestelmä2030
Scen ario
in brief
 Syklisyyskasvaa
 Tempo tiivistyy
The structure of the global The global economic
economy is hierarchical (one system is unpredictable
world or blocs). Economy is and behavior is very  Kaikenkattavastasuunnittelustasykl
pretty stable (rules) until the volatile. Small change in
external or internal inmukaiseenstrategiaanjatoiminta
shock of power centers
causes huge turbulence. conditions may cause a malliin
major shift in the behavior.
China Germany Scenario - Finland Sectors Export Performance in
2030
difference from baseline (bn USD)
Top 20 kauppasimulaattori
 Muttavaikutuksetsaattavat
0.4 ollavähäisiäkin
0.3
0.2
0.1  Kaikkeeneikannatareagoida, pitkätstabii
0 Paper products litkaudetovatmyösmahdollisia
-0.1 Motor vehicles, parts
-0.2 Petroleum, coal products
-0.3
Ferrous metals
-0.4 Machinery and equipment
Wood products
-0.5
Chemical, rubber, plastic Electronic equipments
-0.6
Mineral products
-0.7

9. Ekosysteemitselviävät
Viestintäteknologiasektori
 Muutamansuurenyrityksenekosyste
emituottaakasvua, mutta on
herkkämuutoksille
 Tuoteinnovointituottaaresilienssiä,
muttaeikasvua
 Josepävarmuudetlisääntyvät, pient
enyritystenverkosto on
parempirakennemalli
Skotlannin Food & Drink
 Kehittyneetkorkeanjalostusarvonal
atherkkiämuutoksille
 Perusteollisuuskestäämuutoksest
 Toimivaekosysteemikoostuutoisens
atasapainottavistayrityksistä

10. Kokonaisuusratkaisee
Multiplex
Globaalintalous: Multiplex 2030
Scenario  Montaerimarkkinaa, joillahyvine
in brief rilainenkäyttäytymistapa>erilais
etmenestystekijät
 Systeeminhäiriät/muutoksetlevi
Global system consists of different
domains with different structures and
ävätkaikkialle
behaviours. Uncertainty and
systemic behavior. Each domain has  Globaalintoimijan on
its own dynamics, but it is possible
that small changes cascade through
hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit
system
Prerequi Assymmetric development (local/sector
sites specific regulation, bloc
development, standardization, climate
change agreements, polarization)
Drivers Diverse set of drivers, domain
specific, systemic drivers, external shocks
cascading throughout the system
Structure Role of public sector, International
drivers regulation, polarization of growth

11. Kokonaisuusratkaisee
Multiplex Globaalintalous: Multiplex 2030
Scenario  Montaerimarkkinaa,
in brief joillahyvinerilaisetmenestystekijät
 Systeeminhäiriöt/muutoksetleviävä
tkaikkialle
Global system consists of different
domains with different structures
and behaviours. Uncertainty and
 Globaalintoimijan on
systemic behavior. Each domain has hallittavakaikkitoimintamoodit
its own dynamics, but it is possible
that small changes cascade Vienninrakenne
through system
 Moninaisuustuottaamyoskasvua
LOCALIZED PRODUCTION SCALE FREE PORTFOLIOS
Invest in small production Integrate printing paper
units close to the deinked industry with Globaalimetsäteollisuus
pulp and large markets. biorefineries. Use wood >Joustava portfolio: sekämassa-
Micro mills in cities make also for producing other tuotantoaettäräätälöityjäbisneksiä
quick re-cycling possible. high-value products and
by-products.
Organize own recycled Concentrate on big  Kestäväportfolio on moni-
paper collection and production units in low muotoinen, myöstoimintatavoiltaan
sorting company cost areas.
Vertical integration.
Search partners for printing UseMultiple revenue
paper company fusions. possibilities .

12. Rytmijaajoitus
Viestintäteknologiasektori
 Mitäkovemmatinnovaatiovaatimuks
et, sitäparempi
 Tietoinenfokuserilaisillenopeanryt
mininnovaatiomarkkinoille
100000000
90000000 Painetunviestinnändigitalisoituminen
80000000
E-BOOK SALES IN US  Ekosysteeminrakentaminen vie
70000000
aikaa
60000000
50000000
40000000  Jos kasvuahalutaan, eikannata olla
30000000 pioneeri
20000000
10000000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
http://www.publishers.org/main/IndustryStats/documents/S12008Final.pdf

13. Epävarmuuseiuhka, vaanmenestystekijä
1. NICHE FOCUS
2. NETWORKED OPERATIONS
3. COMBINATIONS
4. LARGE COLLABORATION
5. CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIALIST
6. SELF FUNDING
7. RADICAL INNOVATION
Globaalimetsäteollisuus, SkotlanninFo
8. NHS COLLABORATION od&Drinkja Life Scences
9. HARD TO COPY
10. INFLUENCE EU MARKET
11. SPECIALISED PARTNER
12. PIONEER SCOTLAND
 Epävarmuuksiensystemaattinenan
13. OPEN SOURCE SCOTLAND alyysituottaajoustavuutta
14. PRICE AND QUALITY
15. FROM PHARMA TO I.T INTEGRATION
16. HYBRID KNOWLEDGE
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Portfolio size
Portfolio
Radical Innov. Climate change
Networked specialist
New
operations Influence EU market
Specialized partner Self funding  Haasteenaei ole
Open source Scotland
riskienminimointivaanmahdollisuuk
Hard to Copy
Hybrid knowledge
sienmaksimointi!
Current
Niche Focus Large collaboration
NHS collaboration IT integration
Combinations Price and quality
Pioneer Scotland
Core Contingent
13

14. Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?
AUTOMAATTINEN SOPEUTUMINEN
Rakenne
• Kansallinen portfolio: painopistealueistadiversifiointiin
• Suurteollisuudestaekosysteemeihin
• Massatuotannostapientenerilaistenbisnestenportfolioon
Ohjaus
• Fokusoidustastrategiastasyklinmukaiseentoimintaan
Oikeatvalinnat
• Investoinnit? - Koulutus? - Tuotantorakenne?

15. Mitenmenestytäänyllätystenmaailmassa?
KASVU
• Nopeus
• Tilastoistatoimintaympäristönseurantaa
• Muutoksenhidastamisestainnovaatiovauhdin (jakonkurssien)
suosimiseen
• Teknologiainnovaatioistanopeaanvanhanjauudenkombinointiin
• Kompleksisuus
• Kombinaatiot (perustutkimus)
• Monimuotoinenrakenne
• Julkisenjayksityisensektorinyhteinentarjoamavientimarkkinoille
• Lyhytaikainenkasvu
• Resurssienuudelleenallokointi

16. Seven Innovation Strategies?
Stable& Turbulent Volatile World Multiplex
World
Scen 2. Follower.
1. Growth. • Specialized partner of global
ario networks.
• Diversification of the offering of
in brief large RCA companies. • Basic research for wide
3. Speed .
• Exclusivity of competence set
• Focus on high speed innovation
products, combinations of old • Unique combinations in
The global economic system sectors.
and novel technology education. Global system consists of
The structure of the global • Agile allocation of resources
• Active initiator. is unpredictable and behavior different domains with different
(resource pools, facilitators)
economy is hierarchical (one
is very volatile. Small change structures and behaviours. risk
• Funds; Bankrupt insurance,
world or blocs). Economy is
4. Platform. in external or internal Uncertainty and systemic
insurance, AAF
• IT infrastructurestable (rules) until the
pretty (super
computing) conditions may cause a behavior. Each domain has its
• Innovation stock
shock of power centers causes
• Regulation (open source, virtual major shift in the behavior. own dynamics, but it is possible
huge turbulence.
production, mode defined that small changes cascade
5. New ecosystems
taxation) through system .
• Insurance portfolio • New sector definitions
Prerequi Fast climate change, resource scarcity Global growth period 2010-2020, Assymmetric development arrow
• Low GVA ecosystem +
• Bilaterial agreements
sites severe, capitalism (financial system) technology development fast (does head companies
fails in some areas not solve scarcityproblems) • By-products, multipurpose
6. Designer. production
• Modes management, cycle • Domestic demanddomain specific
Drivers Globalization, many relatively strong
scanning, contingent Knowledge drives economy, quantum Diverse set of drivers,
nations, strong ideologies, clash of computing, zero energy sources , • Diverse usage of resources
instruments 7. Portfolio.
cultures, political power strong, wars global financial system collapsed, • Gradual path to
• Role shifting concepts; public • Export portfolio – complex
(trade/military conflicts) globalization is over, no reliance on entrepreneurship
and private services
policy makers
• Integration of public and • Diversification of
Structure Strong IPR, public sectorin value
private resources role strong, sectors, competences and GVA
Open source development, climate Role of public sector
drivers successful global operations track
chains intensity
change is mitigated,/failure, resource
record • Surprise management
scarcity, no ideologies

17. Space of Uncertainty Process
1. Game changers – key uncertainties
GC list
Web enquiry
2. Extreme worlds
Descriptions of extreme worlds/markets
dominated by the uncertainty p1
x7
p2
x3 x4
p3
3. Success strategies for extreme x1
x2
x5
worlds x6
List of activities, capabilities or development
items that produce success in the extreme RPM method for Portfolio
world quantitative New activities
analysis that seem to
New
be relevant in
many extreme Watch List
4. Assessment of activities’ benefits situations
Web enquiry Activities that Current
Current
are valid in activities that
many extreme are sensitive
situations for change
5. Potential portfolio that will produce Core Contingent
success what-so-ever happens