1. Populist Anger and the Midterm Elections
A presentation for Campaign for America’s Future
October 13, 2010
Celinda Lake, Lake Research Partners
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY| Richmond, VA
www.lakeresearch.com
202.776.9066

2. Key Findings: Political Climate
• Voters are highly pessimistic about the direction of the country, dissatisfied with both Parties
in Congress, and angry about the lack of palpable results, especially when it comes to jobs and
the economy.
• Republicans hold a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm—especially among young
voters, although both Republicans and Democrats in Congress receive low approval ratings.
• Democrats and Republicans are ranked equally on the economy. Voters blame Bush and Wall
Street more than Obama, but the election is still being framed as a referendum on the
President rather than a choice between the two Parties.
• The economy dominates the issue agenda. This is a jobs recession for men and a pocketbook
recession for women, making voters both debt- and tax-sensitive.
• Voters, primarily Republican men, are worried about the deficit and spending. Broader
concern stems from people believing a lot of money has been spent with few results.
• Given the economy’s dominance of the issue landscape, progressives can use successful
economic frames to set the contrast. We need to offer a credible strategy for re-building the
economy, but the emphasis of our message at this point in the cycle must be a clear contrast
on the GOP’s record and agenda when it comes to the future direction for the economic well-
being of the country and individual American families.
– Key issue contrasts revolve around Social Security, trickle-down economics, and outsourcing of
American jobs.
2

3. More than half of Americans are pessimistic about the direction
of the country.
Direction of the Country
Don't know, 9%
Right direction,
36%
Wrong direction,
57%
3
Source: NBC-Wall Street Journal. September 22-26, 2010. 1000 adults nationwide.

4. Nationally, voters are mixed on the job President Obama is doing, but they
are starting to tilt negative. They are far more unified, however, in their
contempt for Congress—two thirds of Americans disapprove of the job
Congress is doing with very high intense disapproval.
Disapprove Approve
Barack Obama 51 45 35 46 -5
United States -38
66 59 16 28
Congress
Darker colors = intensity
4
*Politico/GWU Battleground: 1,000 likely voters nationwide – September 22, 2010 (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

5. Americans have equally unfavorable attitudes toward the two major parties
– intensity is key as about four in ten strongly disapprove of the job done by
both parties. This dissatisfaction with Washington is the undercurrent of the
anti-incumbent mood of the electorate.
Disapprove Approve
Not Sure
Democrats in 9
Congress
57 43 15 34
Republicans in
59 38 8 26 16
Congress
Darker colors = intensity
5
*Politico/GWU Battleground: 1,000 likely voters nationwide – September 10, 2010 (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

6. Contributing to Congress’s low favorability is the fact that over three-
fourths of voters believe there is more bickering in Congress than
attempts to work together to address important issues facing our
nation.
77%
Partisan Bickering in Congress
15%
8%
Working together more Same Bickering more
This year, have Republicans and Democrats in Washington been working together more to solve problems OR have
they been bickering and opposing one another more than usual? 6
Pew Research/National Journal Poll, 9/30/10-10/3/10

7. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/5-8/10
2/1-3/10
8/6-9/09
2/9-12/09
8/7-10/08
2/11-14/08
9/14-16/07
3/11-14/07
10/20-22/06
6/1-4/06
12/5-8/05
Source: Gallup Poll. Aug. 5-8, 2010. N=1,013 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.
6/6-8/05
12/5-8/04
6/3-6/04
12/11-14/03
Disapprove %
6/12-15/03
12/5-8/02
7/9-11/02
1/7-9/02
8/3-5/01
2/1-4/01
1/7-10/00
1/15-17/99
9/11-12/98
12/18-21/97
Voters’ ratings of the job Congress is doing are at historic lows.
2/24-26/97
11/2-4/93
7

8. In a generic ballot, the Republican candidate has a
slight lead over the Democratic candidate.
Among blue-collar voters
-7 Democratic candidate 52 -20% support the Democratic candidate
-71% who support the Republican candidate
45
Among white-collar voters
-47% support the Democratic candidate
-50% who support the Republican candidate
Democratic candidate Republican candidate
8
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation. October 5-7, 2010. N=1,008 adults nationwide

9. The contempt toward Congress is leading to a strong anti-incumbent
climate. A solid majority of voters feel it is time to give someone new a
chance, and half would vote to replace every single member of Congress.
Defeat and replace every member of Congress,
Congress Re-Elect including your own representative?
48 49
Deserves to
31
be reelected
Give new
person a 56
chance
Not sure 11
Yes No
9
NBC News/Wall St. Journal – August 30, 2010

10. Building off the anti-incumbent sentiment, four-in-ten registered voters believe a
switch in control of Congress would be a good thing. However, fewer voters
believe a change would be a good thing than when Republicans controlled
Congress before the 2006 midterm elections.
Would a Switch in Control of Congress Be Good or Bad?
47%
40% -12 -24
28%
23%
October 2010 October 2006
Good Bad
If control of the Congress switched from the Democrats to the Republicans [Republicans to the Democrats in
2006] after November’s election, do you think that would be a good thing, a bad thing, or wouldn’t it make any
10
difference?
Washington Post/ABC News Poll, 10/3/2010, registered voters.

11. Another major issue facing progressives this cycle is the shift toward a more
conservative electorate as a majority of voters (54%) identify themselves as
conservatives. Since 2006, the percentage of voters identifying as conservative has
increased while the percentage of voters identifying as moderate or liberal has
decreased (by 10 and 3 points, respectively).
Ideology of Likely Voters - 2010 Ideology of Likely Voters - 2006
Moderate, Liberal, 18% Liberal, 21%
27%
Moderate,
37%
Conservative Conservative
54% 42%
11
Source: Gallup. September 23-October 3, 2010. 1,882 likely voters nationwide.

12. Moreover, Democrats face an enthusiasm gap going into the
2010 midterm elections. Half the battle this cycle will be getting
progressives to the polls.
Percent saying they are extremely likely vote in the
2010 midterm elections
69% 70%
-13
56%
Republicans Democrats Independents
12
Source: GWU/Politico Battleground Poll. September 19-22, 2010. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

13. Contributing to the enthusiasm gap, young voters who turned
out in record numbers in 2008 show much less interest in the
coming midterm elections.
Percent giving a lot of thought to the elections
53% In 2008
50%
46% 45% Overall: 81% giving a
42% lot of thought to the
elections
-Over 30: 83%
39% -Under 30: 72%
33%
30% 31%
29%
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Over 30 30 and Under
13
Pew Research Center Aug 25-Sept 6, 2010, N=2,816 registered voters

14. This decrease in youth engagement is even more pronounced
among young Democrats.
Percent giving a lot of thought to the elections
Republican/Lean Republican
Democra t/Lea nnDemocra titi c
Democra t/Lea Democra c 67%
53%
53%
53% 53%
43% 43% 43% 49%
40% 43% 43% 43%
40% 43%
47%
47%
35% 39%
35%
31%
31%
27% 31% 31%
25% 27% 29% 28%
25%
1994
1994 1998
1998 2002
2002 2006
2006 2010
2010 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Over 30
Over 30 30 and Under
30 and Under Over 30 30 and Under
14
Pew Research Center Aug 25-Sept 6, 2010, N=2,816 registered voters

15. There is a clear enthusiasm gap among most groups that
compose the Rising American Electorate—all of which propelled
Obama to a decisive win in 2008.
Enthusiasm--% Extremely Likely to Vote
Total 64
Black 58
Latino 36
Women 65
Men 63
Under 34 50
Seniors 65
15
Source: GWU/Politico Battleground Poll. September 19-22, 2010. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

16. Voters who are engaged in this election cycle are thinking with their wallets—meaning a
further Republican advantage lies in voters perceiving them as being better to handle
controlling wasteful spending, keeping taxes down, and controlling the deficit. Voters do
split, however, on who is best to turn the economy around and on creating jobs.
Margin (Dem minus Rep)
Better to handle . . .
Turning the
39% 37% 10% 8% -2
economy around
Controlling
wasteful spending
42% 28% 20% 8% -14
Holding down taxes 53% 26% 10% 8% -27
Sharing your values 39% 39% 10% 8%
0
Creating jobs 39% 39% 11% 8% 0
Controlling the
deficit
45% 28% 16% 8%
-17
16
GOP DEM Both Neither Unsure
Source: Politico/GWU Battleground. September 7-9, 2010. N= 1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

17. Additionally, a majority of Americans see the economy as either
staying the same or getting worse.
The Same or
Worse State of the National Economy
91%
77%
73% 71% 72% 72%
69% 69% 68% 66% 68% 67%
66% 65% 65% 66% 65%
60%
56% 58%
Better 41% 39%
26% 36%
33% 31% 29% 32% 32% 30% 32% 31% 29% 27% 27%
26% 26%
23%
20%
4%
Februa ry Ma rch Apri l Ma y June Jul y Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ja n Feb Ma rch Apri l Ma y June Jul y Augus t
September
17
Source: http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

18. It’s the economy, stupid! In this issue climate, it is hard for
other issues to break through.
The economy 49
The federal budget deficit 11
Education 10
Health Care 9
The wars in Iraq/Afghanistan 9
Illegal immigration 6
Terrorism 3
Energy and environmental policies 1
Other 1
Unsure 1
18
Source: CNN/ Opinion Research Poll. September 21-23, 2010. N= 1,010 adults nationwide.

19. Unemployment tops the list of economic issues, followed by the
budget deficit and taxes.
Unemployment 57
The federal budget deficit 18
Taxes 8
Mortgages and housing costs 7
Inflation 6
Stock Market 2
(Other) 1
No Opinion 1
19
Source: CNN/ Opinion Research Poll. September 21-23, 2010. N= 1,010 adults nationwide.

20. A quarter of voters blame Bush for the current
economy, while one in five blame Wall Street.
Most Responsible for Current National Economy
George W. Bush 25
Large financial firms 20
Among Independents
U.S. Congress 15 -27% Large financial firms
-13% George W. Bush
Barack Obama 11 -13% Global economic forces
-11% Congress
Global economic forces 10 -6% Normal economic cycle
-6% Barack Obama
Normal economic cycle 8
20
Source: Politico/GWU Battleground. September 7-9, 2010. N= 1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Lake Research/Tarrance Group).

21. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are seen as most responsible
for the growth of the federal deficit over the past few years.
Most responsible for growth of federal deficit
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 49
Bailouts of big banks and auto industry 36
Lobbyists and special interests putting
unneeded spending in the budget 31
Bush tax cuts for corporations and top earners 29
President Obama's economic recovery or
stimulus plan 28
The economic recession that cut tax revenue and
required support for the unemployed 8
The cost of the Medicare Prescription Drug
benefit 6
21
Source: Democracy Corps, Campaign for America's Future. July 26-29, 2010. N=1,100 likely voters nationwide . (Greenburg Quinlan Rosner)

22. A plurality of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the
federal government works, and another one in four are angry.
52
77
22
25
20
2
Enthusiastic Satisfied Dissatisfied Angry
22
Source: Washington Post/ABC. Aug 30-Sep 2, 2010. N=1,002 adults nationwide.

23. The public expresses discontent with many major institutions.
Within the context of elevated economic anxiety, banks,
Congress, HMOs, organized labor and big business receive the
highest criticism.
Views of Institutions
76%
66%
59%
48%
40%
36% 36% 34%
27% 25%
23% 22%
20% 19% 19%
11%
The military
Supreme
The church or
Organized
The medical
Management
presidency
Organizations
The police
The public
Television
Newspapers
Banks
Congress
The U.S.
justice system
business
Big business
The criminal
Court
Small
organized
schools
labor
news
system
religion
Health
The
23
Source: Gallup, July 8-11, 2010, N=1,020.

24. While three-in-five voters feel the government should still play an
active role in the economy, half of those voters are not sure they can
trust the government to be effective.
Government's Role in the Economic Situation
60%
32%
33%
28%
Government is not the solution Government should play an active Government should play an active
role, but can't trust role
Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding the proper role of government in the economy?...In the current economic
environment, government is not the solution to our economic problems, government is the problem. I would like to see government play an
active role in the economy to ensure it benefits people like me, but I am not sure that I can trust government to do this effectively. In the current
economic environment, the government must play an active role in regulating the marketplace and ensuring that the economy benefits people 24
like me.
Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll, Apr, 2010

25. This perception of a bleak economy comes from voters’
personal lives: a majority says its personal economic situation is
only fair or poor.
Personal Economic Situation
58%
38%
20%
6%
Excellent/Good Only Fair/Poor
*Darker colors indicate intensity
How would you rate your own personal economic financial situation? Would you say you are in 25
excellent shape, good shape, only fair shape, or poor shape financially?
Source: Pew Research Center/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, June 3 - 6, 2010, N=1,002.

26. Strong majorities believe those at either end of the age spectrum and unmarried
women are most likely to have trouble making ends meet. Majorities also believe
that working and middle class families have trouble making ends meet, but these
views are less intense.
From your perspective, how much trouble making ends meet do you think each of the following groups
faces: a lot of trouble, some, a little, or no trouble at all?*
Trouble Making Ends Meet
Young adults 56% 85%
Senior citizens 53% 85%
Unmarried women 53% 82%
Blacks or African Ams 44% 76%
Working families 43% 84%
Middle-class families 41% 82%
Latinos or Hispanics 37% 71%
Women 36% 79%
A lot Some
26
Source: Wider Opportunities for Women. 1,000 adults nationwide, with oversamples of 100 African-American adults,
100 Latino adults, and 100 adults with incomes $10,000-15,000 annually. May 20-27, 2010. (Lake Research Partners)

27. Ten years ago, about three-in-ten Americans reported that they were living
paycheck-to-paycheck all or most of the time. Last year, that number
increased to four-in-ten, and now it’s up to 44%. The current data shows
that it is also more common for women (47%) to be living paycheck-to-
paycheck than it is for men (40%).
Frequency of Living Paycheck to Paycheck*
2010 -54% -15% -20% 24% 44%
2009 -58% -17% -21% 23% 39%
2000 -71% -24% -22% 15% 28%
Never Hardly ever/once in a while Sometimes/Some of the time Always/All of the time Most of the time
Consumer Federation of America/Bank of America: September 11-November 11, 2000 (1,637 adults nationwide); Newsweek: January
14-January 15, 2009 (1,200 adults nationwide); LRP survey for Community Voices: January-February 2010 (1,000 adults nationwide, 27
100 Latinas, 100 African American women, 100 single mothers, 200 low-income women)
* Note wording change in answer categories.

28. Nearly two-thirds of Americans say either they, a family member, or someone they
know well has lost a job in the past year. Nearly as many Americans say they have
been impacted by a reduction in wages or hours, with a strong majority saying
they, a family member, or someone they know well has experienced this hardship
in the past year.
Impact of the Recession
Impacted you 63% Impacted you
personally: 12% 58% personally: 15%
Impacted a family
Impacted a family
member: 23%
member: 23%
38%
33%
Loss of a job Reduced wages or hours
Impacted you, a family member or someone you know well Has not impacted
I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you
have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone
28
you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.
Democracy Corps Poll, September 2010. N=1000 voters ntationwide.

29. Job loss, reduced wages, or lost health insurance have impacted a significant
portion of voters—especially younger, blue-collar voters.
Have you or your family... Lost job
Reduced wages
59%
Lost health ins.
51%
44%
41% 39% 38%
34%
28% 27%
Total Blue-collar White voters, Blue-collar White voters, 50
younger than 50 or older
29
Democracy Corps, August 2010

30. Six-in-ten Americans are concerned about job loss in the next twelve
months, and three in ten are very concerned about it.
Job Loss Concern
60%
concerned 39%
31%
29%
Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not concerned at all
How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of
work and looking for a job--very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all?
30
CBS News Poll, July 2010, N=966.

31. A third of Americans think the stimulus was too large, and
nearly half think it has had no impact on the economy so far.
Government's Stimulus Package Stimulus Impact on Economy
Made it
Better
30%
Made it
34% 20%
27% 28% Worse
11%
No impact 46%
Too Not About Don't
large large right know Don't
know 4%
enough
31
CBS News/New York Times: 990 adults nationwide – September 10-14, 2010

32. Message and Positioning

33. Message Themes for Progressives
Approaches to Use Approaches to Avoid
Gentle and realistic optimism; we have a
Over-selling the accomplishments of
difficult road ahead, but we’re starting to
Democrats in office.
take the steps we need.
Populist language. Government should work
Talking about the “less fortunate,”
for regular families, not multi-millionaires
government programs to help those in need.
and CEOs.
Righteous indignation based on the Accepting frames of debate based on
American values of fairness and opportunity. smaller questions. Instead of talking about
Make the wealthy pay their fair share, shift whether business should have emissions
the burden off of the middle class, allow regulated, talk about the right to clean air
that everyone has the opportunity to and water, and the principle that polluters
succeed. should pay to clean up their mess.
A willingness to fight for what’s right and Talking about policy minutia or using
take a stand, even if it’s politically unpopular. acronyms.
33

34. Words Matter
Manufacturing
Green Jobs Jobs in Clean
Energy
Guaranteed,
Universal Quality,
Coverage Affordable
Health Care
The Middle Working Families
Class
34

35. Words That Work: The Economy
A useful frame: People vs. Banks and CEOs
Words to Use Words to Avoid
Everyone paying their fair share Taxes
Making the economy work for working families Welfare and subsidies
Getting and keeping good-paying jobs Incentivizing development
Making sure our workers are trained for 21st-
Funding technical education
century jobs
Accountability Regulations
Rooting out waste Cutting programs
Government that serves everyone, not CEOs
Government programs
and multimillionaires
Get rid of tricky loopholes and hidden fees Banking regulations
35

36. Americans respond to messages that evoke achieving the
American Dream and strengthening the middle class.
Recapturing the American Dream -
53% 76%
w/o Seniors*
Strengthen Middle Class* 52% 82%
Recapturing American Dream-w/
52% 79%
Seniors*
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Very convincing Somewhat convincing 36

37. Top messages on the economy emphasize broad themes, such as
recapturing the American Dream and strengthening and building
the middle class.
TEXT OF MESSAGES
• [Recapturing the American Dream – Family Economic Security without seniors] The American Dream is
about having family economic security and the opportunity to succeed with hard work. In this country
we work hard as individuals to get ahead for ourselves and our families and to provide a better chance
for the next generation. Family economic security is about a good-paying, secure job, affordable
healthcare, and a secure retirement. It’s about more than living paycheck to paycheck. We need to
build the middle class and recapture the American Dream by creating good-paying, secure jobs,
providing affordable, quality healthcare, and investing in education and training.
• [Strengthen and Build to the Middle Class] The current economic downturn has hit working families the
hardest and the longest. Even as they continue to work hard and act responsibly, more and more
families are living paycheck to paycheck and are increasingly on the edge of economic crisis. Our
economy will only be strong again when our working and middle class families are strong. This means
not only helping middle class families reclaim their sense of economic security and strengthening the
middle class, but also helping low-income and working families move into the middle class through jobs
that come with good wages, benefits, and secure retirement.
• [Recapturing the American Dream – Economic Security w/ Seniors] The American Dream is about having
family economic security and the opportunity to succeed with hard work. In this country, we work hard
as individuals to get ahead for ourselves and our families and to provide a better chance for the next
generation. Family economic security is about a good-paying, secure job, affordable healthcare, and a
secure retirement. It’s about more than living paycheck to paycheck. We need to build the middle
class, protect our senior citizens who have worked hard all their lives, and recapture the American
Dream by creating good, secure jobs, providing affordable, quality healthcare, and investing in 37
education and training.

38. Voters respond to messages that reflect voters’ core beliefs about
Social Security: it belongs to the people and represents a promise
made to all generations that must be protected and paid back.
Five: Represents your values extremely well
*Belongs to the people 80%
*Prioritize paying SS back
first/bailout 69%
*Broken promise 66%
*Other priorities/Wall
Street 64%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
38
*Split-sampled questions: On a scale that goes from 0 to 5, where 0 means it doesn’t represent your values and positions at all and 5
means it represents your values and positions extremely well, how well does this statement represent your values and positions.

39. The messages that resonate most with voters reflect their core
attitudes about Social Security: it belongs to the people and
represents a promise made to all generations that must be
protected and paid back.
TEXT OF MESSAGES
• [Belongs to the people] Social Security moneys belong to the people who have worked hard all their lives and
contributed to the program, not to the government. We must protect Social Security from cuts that will hurt
beneficiaries, we cannot let Congress try to use Social Security as a piggy bank. (80% saying “5: represents
values extremely well”)
• [Prioritize paying back SS first/bailout] Social Security has a funding gap in the future and that gap needs to be
closed. The disagreement in Washington is what to do about it. The answer is pretty clear: The federal
government has to pay back the $2.6 trillion it took from the Social Security trust fund. Before Congress even
thinks about cutting Social Security benefits, the government must pay back the money it owes the trust fund.
We cannot accept that the government has the money to bail out Wall Street banks, but not to pay back Social
Security. (69% saying “5: represents values extremely well”)
• [Broken promise] Social Security is a promise made to all generations to provide a basic and reliable income for
when they retire, become widowed or disabled, or leave loved ones behind. Americans need to know the
promise of Social Security will continue to be met for them. This is one promise we cannot allow Congress to
break. We need to make sure we continue to support Social Security without making cuts that will harm
current and future generations (Broken Promise: 66% saying “5: represents values extremely well”)
• [Other priorities/Wall Street] Washington should be thinking about getting Americans back to work, protecting
Americans from predatory lenders and changing unscrupulous business practices on Wall Street. We shouldn’t
expect middle and low income Americans, in the middle of the largest recession since the 1930’s, to have their
Social Security cut. We should ask Wall Street bankers to give back their bonuses and we should put a tax on 39
Wall Street, not cut Social Security benefits. (64% saying “5: represents values extremely well”)

40. Populist Anger and the Midterm Elections
A presentation for the Campaign for America’s Future
October 13, 2010
Celinda Lake, Lake Research Partners
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY| Richmond, VA
www.lakeresearch.com
202.776.9066