1. Urban Foresight as a tool for Territorial Governance Thursday, 15 September 2011 Joe Ravetz Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology University of Manchester www.manchester.ac.uk/cure

4. What is ‘urban’?

5. What is ‘urban’?

6. What is urban? ‘Deficit’ mythologies Wow so this is what really goes on – gamblers are playing Monopoly with the whole city And look at those poor people – scraping together their last few coins to hand over to the gambler man The stakes are high – you can double your money, but the next minute you can lose everything - houses, factories, offices, whole cities … all laid to waste Actually I don’t think they’re very happy about that…. they have to go hungry just so that the game can go on.

7. What is urban? Multiple systems To play the REAL city game I think we need a Monopoly board with more layers... Firstly, the global circuit – elite investors fly in, place their bets, take the rewards, and run Then there’s what cities are supposed to do, in the circle of production and consumption – making stuff and selling it And for many the city is a place of security in buildings – they don’t move around so much But what really counts is the ‘moral economy’ – family, community, sense of doing the right thing Meanwhile the town hall tries to fix things and manage health & education, but money & power are very short... Lastly don’t forget that cities exist in a global ecology - at the moment not very happily

8. 2. Analysis – urban intelligence & urban foresight

9. Foresight & the urban case Foresight can be seen as a cycle of about 3 stages -

10. Foresight & the urban case But in the urban case, these are often pulling in different directions Research & future studies agenda Strategic planning & management agenda Stakeholder & capacity building agenda

14. Multiple questions & component levels Discourse / worldviews / values Factors / themes Actors / stakeholders Sectors / places / policies ‘ Vectors’ / processes / interactions Factors / technology / regime Multiple interactions & modes of intelligence Relational emergent mapping for urban foresight Explore synergicity – capacity for co-evolution of creative action, strategic thinking, shared intelligence “ Why ” “ what” “ who” “ where” “ how” “ which” Ethical – value / morality Social - community / Technical – functional relations Political - power & institutional Economic – material

15. Who / what / why levels STEEP levels External outputs / impacts “ INTELLIGENT ADAPTIVE SYSTEM” “ COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM” “ COMPLEX SYSTEM” Co-intelligence Co-evolution Co-production Co-dependency - Synergicity – capacity for emergence of creative action, strategic thinking & shared intelligence Shorter term pressure Longer term change Structural shifts External drivers / pressures / inputs RELATIONAL SYSTEM Robustness / resilience for shorter term Adaptive capacity for longer term Conscious & strategic innovation Responses & feedbacks Synergicity & relational thinking

17. 3. Applications

18. Policy: hierarchical & technocratic: within defined units & sectors Public: fragmented & passive recipients Policy: responsive & inter-connected: multi-level & multi-functional Regulation system: 1-way information flow: (with occasional election feedback) Public: pro-active, entrepreneurial, resilient & self-organized Governance system - co-production of shared intelligence From - “ ORGANIZED GOVERNMENT” To - “SELF-ORGANIZING GOVERNANCE” Governance applications

20. Environmental applications Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political) CITY CITY-REGION REGION

21. Fossil fuel reserves and alternative conversions Energy conversion & power distribution Urban buildings & infrastructure as carbon sink Renewable resources, local & regional Bio-mass & bio-fuel energy Global atmosphere with carbon storage and climate balance Fossil fuel extraction industry – national / global Carbon embedded in goods & products Carbon stored / embedded in waste to landfill or recovery Carbon emissions responsibility via energy demand Carbon net trade balance of imports / exports Carbon sequestration in soil & biomass CITY CITY-REGION REGION Environmental applications Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political)

22. Factors (SLE-wiki) Actors – (facebook) Places (PPGIS) Dynamics (Ebay etc) Discourse (youtube) Case study a) street home zone Local spatial analysis – opports / constraints Social forum on local needs & ideas Policy & practice review Value testing by virtual auction / priority choice Images / stories / media (external) Spatial design options & limits Social forum on options & priorities Investment testing with financial / social value auction Coordination with funding / other policy levels images / stories / media (newly created) Social forum on events / meetings / issues To external users Social investment - sale of certificates project go-ahead Social-tech platforms ICT applications

23. Applications – “pathways” integrated multi-stakeholder socio-economic-political chains & cycles of added value: based on One Planet Economy Network programme for ecological transformation Public sector: stewardship & procurement pathways Financial sector: stakeholder capital pathways Science / technology sector: innovation pathway Business sector: integrated service chain pathway Community / non-profit sector: social enterprise pathway International development sector: fair trade pathway

24. Applications - urban intelligence So this is eco-intelligence in action !! .. and how does it work? Ok but - who gets to decide on these connections - and who are the winners or losers? Basically it’s about connections. We connect between different parts of the ecological cycle. Then we connect these with different layers of the economic system. The whole city decides, in a deliberative eco-intelligence foresight network …. With this we can begin to reduce extreme differences of wealth and poverty, with a better balance of economic, social and ecological systems.

25. 4. Conclusions

29. Thank you... joined up thinking in progress Synergy city Pathways for shared intelligence in the global urban century “ World’s largest feasibility study” – linking spatial, economy, environment, society, governance. “ World’s largest organization strategy” – shared intelligence for the relational economy “ Environment and the City” - critical perspectives on the urban environment around the world

31. Actor view - consumer Synergy view Discourse / worldviews / values Factors / themes Actors / stakeholders Places / spaces ‘ Vectors’ / processes / opportunities Shared intelligence between actors / factors / sectors etc: e.g. awareness of shared interests between food consumers, producers, distributors etc Organic & local Fair trade Choice & diversity Food distribution / packaging regime Food cost decision making Quality / safety regime Community Personal Family Retailers Health / education Media Home environment Catering Shop / cook / eat lifestyle / eat / health Shopping environment Shared intelligence between parallel systems (e.g. employment, environment, health etc Shop / cook / eat Grow / produce / sell Monitor / analyse / regulate Investment & money flow Resource flow cycle Urban food foresight - synergicity / relational mapping

32. Government Civic sector Social enterprise Community Consumers Tertiary services Secondary industry Primary resources Overseas trade & devmt Finance sector Science & technology Public services Institutional relationships Financial relationships NGOs provide auditing, accreditation & awareness raising to consumers Public procurement to kickstart markets & build critical mass Mobilization of R&D for pro-poor development & infrastructure Coordination with overseas NGOs / donors, economic partnerships, labour organizations etc. Sustainable resource management programme for all production Global carbon markets used to fund overseas sustainable rural development Retailers & distributors are key intermediaries between consumers & producers Innovative financial mechanisms to enable micro-finance etc Consumers enabled to drive the fair trade agenda for overseas producers Social enterprise promote ethical food culture & local counterparts, working with communities in health & education Social / cultural relationships Urban food foresight - synergicity / relational mapping