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360 Degree CEO Perspective of the
                     Global Healthcare Industry




© 2008 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan.
            No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan
The CEO’s Perspective of the Complex Business Universe

                                                         TECHNOLOGY
                                                                                   Economic                           Growth
                                                          Emerging                 Trends &                           Process
                                                         Technology
                               Competitive                                          Issues                                             BEST
                              Benchmarking
                                                                                                                                     PRACTICES
 Emerging                                                                                                 External
Competition                                                                                               Industry
                                                                    GLOBAL
                                                                                                           Impact
                                                                                    Emerging                         INDUSTRY          Career
                                                                                   Opportunities                                     Development
                                                    Cultural
                         Industry
         Non            Integration
       Customer

                                                Political             CEO                                                               Demo-
                                                   &                                                          Industry                 graphics
CUSTOMER
                                               Regulatory                                                   Convergence
                                   Economic
                                    Trends
                                                                                      Economic
                Industry                       Disruptive                              Threats
               Expansion                      Technologies
                Potential
                                                                Industry
                                                                 Shifts                                    Behavior
                                                                                                                       COMPETITIVE
               Competitor’s       Country
                Customers          Risk                    Competitive                                                  In-Direct
                                                            Strategy                          New                      Competition
                                                                                           Applications
    Growth
                                 Growth
   Functions
                                  Team
                                                        ECONOMIC

                                            © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Agenda

A    Global Healthcare Industry Outlook                         B      Overview By Area

    1.   Top 10 Global Healthcare Trends                             1.       Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

    2.   The Triple Healthcare Crisis                                2.       Clinical Diagnostics

    3.   Shifting Healthcare Expectations                            3.       Medical Devices

    4.   Convergence in Healthcare                                    4.      Medical Technologies


    5.   Healthcare Paradigm Shift

    6.   Hot Spots & Emerging Geographies

    7.   PESTLE Analysis

    8.   Opportunity Analysis – Major Areas




                                 © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Top 10 Global Healthcare Trends


                    The Triple Healthcare Crisis


                        Shifting Healthcare Expectations



Global Healthcare          Convergence in Healthcare

Industry Outlook
                           Healthcare Paradigm Shift


                          Hot Spots & Emerging Geographies


                       PESTLE Analysis


                Opportunity Analysis




                             © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Top 10 Global Healthcare Trends
                                                  2007 – 2020

High Impact

                                                                                               Power Patient
                                                                                                Generation
                                             Drugs get
                                              Smarter
                                                                      Shift to Personalised
                                                                            Healthcare
                               Innovation vs.                                                  Prevention Before
                                 Knowledge                                                           Cure

                                                                            Healthcare globe
                                                                                trotters
   Projected                                                                                          Patients become
Impact on the                                                                                           Customers
  Healthcare
                                             Cyber Docs
    Industry
                                                                                       Hospitals go Virtual



                                                                                                Devices become
                                                                                               monitors, monitors
                                                                                                become devices




Low Impact


                Low                                                                                            High
                                                  Certainty

                        © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Patients become healthcare Kings and Queens, Medical communities become
             interconnected while doctor-patient relationship goes virtual.

        Major                          2010                                     2015                                  2020
        Trend
      Power Patient            Patients gain access to          Patient Centred Care                                       Patients become
1      Generation             health quality information                    Baby Boomer Retirement Starts            healthcare Kings and Queens

     Patients Become      Consumerism                                       One Stop Shop
2       Customers                 Holistic health and well being                                  Customised Products            Home Services

       Prevention
3      Before Cure
                             Early Treatment                              Implementation of IT                     Precise therapy becomes reality

      Personalised               Genetic Testing                   Information based medicine         Wellness Care Presymptomatic diagnostics
4      Healthcare                    Targeted Clinical Trials           Major diseases understood at molecular level      & treatments

       Healthcare      Immediate Treatment abroad                   "medical tourism" crosses                      Private Companies invest in
5     Globe Trotters      becomes an option                           the US$2 billion mark                        facilities and services abroad

         Smarter                                                                            Drug cocktails will enhance productivity, memory,
6         Drugs
                                                  Non-invasive delivery
                                                                                                       and physical performance

      Hospitals Go                                                 Medical communities (1°, 2° care)                    Regional/Country-wide
7       Virtual
                             All departments/buildings within
                                  hospitals are connected               become interconnected                                Connectivity

      Innovation vs.
8       Knowledge            War for Medical Talent                            Baby Boomer Retirement Starts            Medical professionals keep
                                                                                                                        up with knowledge growth.

9    Devices Become
        Monitors          Disease management                              Remote Patient Monitoring                      Self-monitoring

                                  Virtual face to face
10     CyberDocs
                               doctor- patient relationship
                                                                                  Perform routine diagnostics
                                                                                   with predictive precision
                                                                                                                        Cheaper care available to
                                                                                                                          more people in need


                                               © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Healthcare is challenged by three interlocking crises that make
                 present healthcare systems unsustainable
Healthcare is challenged by three interlocking
crises that make present healthcare systems                           The Size of the Problem – Quality
unsustainable:
     Rising Costs,                                                        15%        of patients admitted to hospital
     Changing Demographics                                                suffer an adverse event.

     Quality                                                              8%      of adverse events result in death.

                                                                          6%        of     adverse        events         result   in
                                                                          permanent disability.

                                                                          10-20%             of all adverse events is
                                                                          caused by medication errors.

                                                                          10-15%                 of     hospital        admissions
                                                                          occur because providers do not have
                                                                          access to previous care records.

                                                                          20%        of laboratory tests are requested
                                                                          because          the        results      of     previous
                                                                          investigations are not accessible.




                              © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
If current trends hold, by 2050 health care spending will almost double
               claiming 20 – 30% of GDP for some economies.




In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income.
No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must eventually fall in
line with growth in per capita income.

                                     © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
The balance between young and old is shifting. Ageing related and chronic diseases, are
becoming significant. More people living with multiple long term illness and conditions.




   In 2000, 10% (606 million) of the global population was
   aged 60+. By 2050 this will be more than 21% (2 billion).
   People aged 60+ utilize 3-5 times more healthcare
   services than younger people.
   75% of people aged 60+ have one chronic
   condition, while 50% have two or more chronic
   conditions.
   Chronic diseases account for more than 60% of all
   health care spending.
   Health economics dictate a shift in spending – away
   from treating and towards predicting, diagnosing and
                                    © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
   monitoring
Consumer experiences in other markets affecting expectations from healthcare

Greater       variety      of                     Retailing
providers,   products    and                      & Finance
services   e.g.     expensive                          Customer service
health plans and alternative                           Comparison Shopping                        Manufacturing
medicine services                                      Self-Service                               & Distribution
                                                       Special Offers                                Faster time to market
Power patients have increased access                                               Healthcare        One Stop Shop
                                                                                                     Anytime Anywhere Care
to   computers      and    information                                                               Supply Chain Integration
through multiple channels to seek and
analyse health information
                                                                    Entertainment
                                                                    & Media
                                                                         Customised Products
                                                                         Home Services



                                                                                                Health care that is
                                                                                                customized             to
                                                                                                monitor, diagnose, edu
                                                                                                cate,   and    intervene
                                                                 Freedom to make                regardless of location or
                                                                 own decisions                  time-will be common.




                                  © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Convergence in healthcare enables personalisation, targeted medicines, new drug delivery
mechanisms, virtual patient monitoring tools, allowing a preventative approach to healthcare


     Bio Chips: Controlled Released             Disease Management

        Tailored Treatments-                            Telemedicine
   Genomic/Proteomics based

        Drug Delivery                                       Health Management


  Predictive tests
                                                       Remote Patient Monitoring
 Gene Mapping &
Functional Analysis
                                                 Preventative Programmes                Life Sciences
     Nanotechnology
                                           IT / Digital Information Systems
           Delivery Systems




                                                                                      Technology…….Enables it


                                                                                   Economics………………Require it



                                                                                   Demographics………….Demand it



                                                                      Medical                                     Medical
                                                                      Devices                                   Technologies

                                      © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Riding on a wave of technical innovations Healthcare will change from an acute
           “find it and fix it” system to a “wellness tracking” system
  Current Healthcare Systems                                                        Future Healthcare Systems
           Suffer from the                                                                   Must Apply a
       “RADAR” Syndrome                                                                      “GPS” Logic

                                                                                                  Telehealth
                      Patient Appears                                                             for virtual
                      (falls sick)                                                               interactions

                      Patient is treated
                      “find it and fix it”
                      Patient is discharged                           Web portals
                                                                        to EHR                                            Sharable
                                                                       Systems                                            Personal
 Patient then disappears from radar screen
                                                                                                                            Health
                                                                                              Patient Scan                 Records

                                                                                             Good Chronic
                                                                                              Disease care
 System oriented to acute illness
 Patient’s role not emphasised
                                                                              Patient                             Provider
 Follow up sporadic                                                           Support                             Support
                                                                               Tools                                Tools
 Prevention overlooked
                                                   Home monitoring devices                         Electronics Health Records (EHRs)
                                                   Personal Health Records                         Chronic Disease Management Systems
                                                   Web- based education and support                Personal Digital Assistants
                                                                                                   Disease Management Program

                                              © 2007 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
A modern healthcare system is on the horizon demanding
                    a Healthcare Paradigm Shift

        ...From                                                                            ...To


       Fragmented                         Patient Flow                         Integrated & automated



        Invasive                          Diagnosis &                       Less invasive, Preventative,
                                           Treatment                                image based


     Provider Centric                           Focus                                   Patient Centric



  Centralised – Hospital                      Monitor                 De-Centralised–Shift to Community



     One Size Fits All                       Approach                           Personalised Medicine


Therapeutics/Diagnostics/                                                               “Theranostics”
        Devices                                 Tools


    Treating Sickness                        Objective                  Preventing Sickness – “Wellness”



                           © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Threats arise from unconventional players outside the
                            traditional healthcare boundary

         Agriculture & Food Companies
        Biotech is the changing face of agriculture.
        Biotech crops were planted in 18 countries in
        2004. By 2010, it is projected that 15 million
                                                                                              Employers & Government
        farmers will grow genetically modified crops on                                       2007      :    Integrated     Healthcare
        up to 375 million acres in 30 countries.                                              Management        in the US has been
                                                                                              launched as the systematic application of
                                                                                              processes and shared information to
                                                                                              optimize the coordination of benefits
Chemical Companies                                                                            and care for the healthcare consumer

2007:Roche     and    Toyama
Chemical     enter   licensing
agreement to develop potential                              Healthcare Companies
breakthrough drug to treat
rheumatoid arthritis



    Consumer Product Companies
     2007 : SUPERMARKETS in the UK are
     increasingly becoming one‐stop‐shops for
     everything    by    branching    out    into                                         Telecommunication Companies
     healthcare, with everything from in‐store
     pharmacies to blood tests, blood pressure                                            2007 : Orange launches "Connected Hospital", its
                                                                                          first e‐healthcare offering designed to improve
     checks and health checks on your lungs.
                                                                                          patient comfort and care quality
     2008: Virgin Group launched a new
     healthcare network. The first of six “one‐stop
     shops” clinics will offer extra NHS and private
     services including dentistry, screening, a
     pharmacy and complementary therapies
     alongside GP practices. Ultimately, offering
     wider options for patients.
                                           © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
A Look at the Future: Patient Centric Health & Wellness Care




  Web of Care
                                                                                NanoCare




 Mobile EHR
                                                                              Implantable eCare




  Smart eHomes
                                                                        Wearable BioSensors

                  Health Robots                 Decision Support


                 © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
A Look at the Future: Patient Centric Health & Wellness Care


                          EcoMedicine

                                                                                   Doctors
                                                                                                            Friends
                                 NanoMedicine                                     & Medical
                                                                                                               &
                                                                                    Team
                                                                                                            Family
                                                                                               eHealth
                                 Pre-emptive Medicine                                          Advisor
                                                                                               Network
                                                                                    Coaches                 Online
                                                                                                           Support
                                 Regenerative Medicine                                 &
                                                                                   Advocates             Communities


                                     Digital Medicine




              Self Care                      My Health & Wellbeing
                                                  Databases


  Diet         Humor         Lifestyle          Mind               Exercise
   &             &           & Stress          Body &                  &
Nutrition       Joy         Reduction           Spirit              Fitness




                                © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
A Look at the Future: Patient Centric Health & Wellness Care




                © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Hot Spots and Emerging Geographies
                    Canada
                    Relatively    high     government               UK/Scandinavian Countries
                    spending on healthcare, small                   High   government     spending   on
                    number      of     local   market               healthcare IT, large market, high
                    players, sizeable market                        number of healthcare IT players.




                                                                                                                    Hong Kong
                                  Germany/Switzerland                                                               High          government
U.S.                              High        spending         on                                                   spending              on
Huge         healthcare           healthcare, large market with                                                     healthcare,         small
market              and           not     too    many      market                                                   domestic
growing,          large           players, increasing focus on                                                      market,     gateway   to
opportunities,    niche           eHealth and digitization                                                          China
players will be more                                                                                   India
successful                                                                                             Large market, low operating costs, excellent
                                                                                                       local        skills,       high        local
                                                                                                       competition, Distribution hub to the Middle-
                                                                                                       and South-East of Asia
 Venezuela & Colombia
 Constituting part of the
 Andean Region are the
 fastest growing countries
 in many HC categories
 due to large public
 investment                                 Sub-Saharan Africa
                                            Limited current government
                                            spending     on     healthcare               Australia & New Zealand
                                            IT, increases planned in the                 High    government       spending on
       Brazil & Mexico
                                            future.     Private     sector               healthcare IT, small number of local
       Two largest healthcare
                                            developing increasing focus                  market players, increasing focus on
       markets in Latin America and
                                            on eHealth. Moderate number                  eHealth and digitization
       growing at a sustained pace
                                            of players mainly operating
                                            from South Africa.

                                               © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
PESTLE Analysis – Timeline

                               2010                                   2015                                    2020

                    Growing Political Focus and                                                                Increasing harmonisation
POLITICAL             Pressure on Healthcare             Increase influence by regulatory bodies



                                                         Spend per capita on health globally grows
                  Reduction in pharma growth                                                                    Global ‘Not for Profit’ Pharma
ECONOMIC           (business model changes)                                                                    Supply for developing countries
                                                  Divide between the EU, US and rest of the world grows


                                                       Patient Centric Healthcare
                          Ageing population
                                                                                                          Health awareness (prevention)
 SOCIAL      Personalised healthcare                       Increasing pressure from patient groups
            Raised consumer expectations          Medical Ethics         Health education                 Increasing customer awareness

             Information Based Systems              Internet           Pharmacogenomics              Genomic Drugs
TECHNO-
                 Direct to Patient Advertising                                                        Combined diagnostics and therapeutics
LOGICAL                                                         Health card / Smart Cards
                                         Drug Design                                           Customised treatments


            Therapeutics>Theranostics (Rx/Dx)                              Privacy                              Genetic Discrimination
 LEGAL               Biogenerics/biosimilars           Faster Drug Approvals            Medical Errors / Safety



ENVIRON-       Mergers and Acquisitions                     Development of specialist therapy providers
 MENTAL                          Biotech companies transition to Pharma companies
                                                                                                      Impact of HIV and other pandemics


                                       © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Opportunity Analysis – Major Areas (Europe), 2007-2012

High Revenues
                                            Pharmaceuticals




     Projected
     Revenues
      In 2012
    ($ Billions)
                                          Medical Devices




                                                                                                       Drug Discovery   Biotech
Low Revenues                              Clinical Diagnostics
                     Patient Monitoring                                               Healthcare IT
                                                       Medical Imaging

                    Low                                                                                                    High

                                                                  Growth Rate (2007-2012)

                                          © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Market Data


                    Snapshot of Potential Opportunities


                            Key Trends


     Global
                              Emerging Markets
Pharmaceutical &
 Biotechnology
    Trends



                                                                                                         ?



                                                                                             Integrated Model,
                                   Pharmaceuticals,                    Biotech, Generics,      Gene Therapy,
                                   Blockbuster Model                     Local Players         Global Players



                                © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Changes in the Global Pharmaceutical Environment Require Pharmaceutical and
                                Diagram
          Biotech Companies to Adapt to Changing Business Models
                                         Pre 2005
                                                                                                     2015
           Blockbuster Model                                                            Preventative Healthcare & Wellness
                                                                                           Astounding   growth   in   the   vaccines
                                                                                           industry
                                                       2015
Opportunities                                                                           Marketing of Value Added Services
in the Global
                Niche Drugs and R&D                                                     Genomics and proteomics expected to
Pharma Market
                                                                                        reduce R&D times
                                                                                        ‘In life testing’ will take over the current
                                                                    2020                clinical trial process. Continuous data
                                                                                        monitoring can be done by the regulators
                   Integration & Supply Chain                                           during the testing process. Clinical trials
                                                                                        will eventually become shorter



                                                                  2020
           Integrated packages of products and services                        Supply chain functions will evolve to a revenue
                                                                               generating model. Products and services will be
           Patient monitoring & compliance
                                                                               marketed through the supply chain
           Pharma and medical devices              providing
                                                                               Just –in time manufacturing, novel delivery
           sophisticated and efficacious solutions
                                                                               methods and direct to consumer distribution will
           Integration of pharma, diagnostics, medical                         be adapted from other      industries like the
           devices, patient monitoring and healthcare IT                       automotive industry
             Will result in a high profile, risk free, user                    Automated dispensing of drugs
             friendly, low cost and safe healthcare solution
                                                                               Smart cards / internet to store patients details

                                       © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Cancer represents the highest potential for revenue generation
                            and growth in the future

High Revenues


                  Established
                  Treatments




  Projected                                                                                  Unmet Needs
 Revenues In
    2012




Low Revenues



                Low                                                                                   High
                                                        Growth Rate (2007-2012)

                                © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Increasing Focus on Biologics in the Future
                Cancer Related Drugs Constitute Half of the Current Biotech Pipeline.
                                                                                                                                                             Phase III: 5-10 years to launch




                                                                                                       Cancer Pipeline 2007 – Split by Phase III & I
                                                                                                                                                       Monoclonal Antibodies constitute half of the Phase III biotech
     2007                                                                                                                                              pipeline. More Monoclonal Antibodies are likely to reach the
                                                                                                                                                       market in the next 5-10 years.

                                                                                                                                                           Phase I: 10-15 years to launch




                                                                                                                                                       Cancer vaccines are an emerging technology that are likely to
                                                                                                                                                       create the next wave of growth in the biotechnology industry
                                                                                                                                                       because of better safety profiles and minimal side effects
Other: Includes genetic disorders, skin disorders, eye conditions, growth disorders, transplantation
                                                                  © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
The Next Five Years will see more than 70 Major Drugs come Off-patent in the
Major Markets within US and Europe. Beyond 2011 Increasing Focus on Biologics
                                                                                                                                           Beyond
           2008                              2009                            2010                              2011                       2011………


 US                                  US                             US                              US                                 Decreasing number
 14 drugs lose patent protection     Five major drugs lose          The US patent for Lipitor       Patent protection expires for 10
                                                                                                                                       of small molecule
 (include super blockbusters         patent         protection      expires and for 12 other        major drugs in the US (includes
                                                                    drugs      (includes    the     the superblockbusters Seroquel     patent      expires
 Effexor and Fosamax, and            (includes Prevacid)
                                                                    blockbusters       Levaquin,    and Zyprexa, plus three other      beyond 2013
 potentially Advair)
                                                                    Cozaar and Protonix)            blockbusters)
 EU                                                                                                                                    Biologics will be the
 Nine     drugs     lose   patent    EU                                                                                                focus within hospitals
 protection in at least one of the   Seven drugs lose patent        EU                              EU                                 in the injectables field
 major European countries            protection in at least one     Five drugs become exposed       Four    of   these,   including
 (including both Fosamax and         of the major countries         to generic competition with     Zyprexa, lose patent protection    Within the EU and US,
 Effexor)                            (including Nexium,             Keppra the most significant     in three major European
                                                                                                                                       there is increasing
                                     Pantozol and Cozaar)           of these                        countries, as do seven other
                                                                                                    drugs, most notably Lipitor in     competition from low
                                                                                                    November 2011                      cost competitors
                                                 Market Size (2007-2012)




  Source: IMS
                                                  © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Gene Therapy will Drive the Market in the Longer Term. Technologies such as
                                   Diagram
    Pervasive computing are Important in Improving the Drug Discovery Process.

                                                                                                                             Smart
                                                                                                                             Tags
                                                                                                              Petaflop                   Predictive
                                                                                                              & Grid                    biosimulation
                                                                                                             computing    Future
                                                                                                                        Technology
                                                                                                                          Trends   Advanced
                Defining    diseases      more                                                                Pervasive
                accurately    and     creating       Gene therapy uses genes to treat or                      computing                   storage
                                                     prevent disease. In the future, this                                                 solutions
                healthcare    packages      for
                                                     technique will allow doctors to treat a                               Web-scale
                patients with specific disease
                                                     disorder by inserting a gene into a                                    mining
                subtypes.     Resulting      in
                Premium Drugs and the                patient’s cells instead of using drugs
                launch of health care kiosks         or surgery
                                                                                                    A disease led approach creates a new discovery and
Opportunities




                offering       one-stop-shop                                                        development model. Technology will improve the process e.g.
                services                                                                            making in-life testing more cost efficient. This brings
                                                                                                    significant changes for pharma companies in terms of time,
                                                                                                    development costs and success rates to man.
                                                  Genomics /
                                                                    Gene
                                                  Proteomics
                                                   Cellomics       Therapy,

                               Biologics: Targeted
                                    Treatment
                              Solutions, Integrated
                 Semi Block         Solutions
                Busters, Patent
                  Expiration
                  Strategies

                              Growth Rate

                                                     © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Shift in Growth from Mature Markets to Emerging Markets
Central and Eastern Europe                                                                                      China
  High unmet needs in Cardiovascular and respiratory disease treatments                                               API manufacturing hub
  Increasing private healthcare expenditure – co-payments on the rise                                                 Increasing  competency        in   R&D
  Markets are dependant on parallel imports for innovative medicines                                                  outsourcing
  Russia, Poland, Czech and Hungary demonstrating healthy R&D climate                                                 Anti-infectives and Cardiovascular
  Turkey: Ability to produce active ingredients and finished products                                                 drugs – fastest growing markets
                                                                                                                      Improved IP laws –           potentially
                                                                                                                      attractive climate for FDI



Brazil
   Latin American hub for FDI and
   exports to neighboring nations
   Government     policies favour
   generics use – branded drugs’
   revenues are low                                                                                                               Korea
   Recognized potential for CRO and                                                                                                  Innovative capability
   CMO     growth    –     still  in                                                                                                 and well developed
   development phase                            India
                                                                                                                                     industry
                                                   Highly skilled labor and low costs – attractive
                                                   market for partnerships (CRO, CMO) (APIs)
                                                   Pharmaceutical companies with global presence
                                                   US FDA approved labs – preferred destination
                                                   for R&D outsourcing
                                                   Weak IP protection – a concern
Argentina
   Approval of ‘Generics law’-
   patients  choose     between
   branded and generic drugs                            Singapore

   Marketing strategy focused on                           US-Singapore FTA – Asia-Pacific Manufacturing hub
   patients, moving away from                              Highly competent facilities for clinical trials and drug
   physicians                                              development
   Emerging market with huge                               Favorable   investment     policies –   Asia-Pacific
   potential for R&D outsourcing                           headquarters of major foreign pharma companies

                                                 © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Market Data


                       Snapshot of Potential Opportunities


                             Key Trends



      Global                   PEST Analysis

Clinical Diagnostics
      Trends




                                                                                              Integrated with
                                    Neglected sector                        Hottest area      other HC sectors



                                 © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Increased patient driven initiatives have secured diagnostics considerable market
                                    Diagram
          growth potential causing significant healthcare cost savings
                                                        2005
                                                                                               Demand Volume
                      Secondary Care                                                               Affordability
                                                                                                   Waiting Lists
 Changes     in
                                                                   2010
                                                                                                   Public Anxiety
 the   demand
 for healthcare                                                                                    Development of demand
 diagnostics           Primary Care                                                                management policies and
                                                                                                   strategies e.g. demand
                                                                                                   driven financing

                                                                                2015
                       Home Care/ Self Testing

                                                                                                   Pharmaceutical /
      Patient Driven                                                                                Biotechnology
             Available personalised healthcare and choice
             Patient knowledge through multiple channels
             Public pressure on government                                                  Information   IVD
                                                                                                                    Imaging
                                                                                            Technology
             One stop shop
             Consumer responsive providers, products and services.

                                      © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Snapshot of Potential Opportunities - Global


High Revenues




  Projected
 Revenues In
    2012




Low Revenues



                Low                                                                        High
                                                      Growth Rate (2007-2012)

                              © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
The next 10 years will witness the Integrations of in vivo, in vitro, and IT in the
                   advancement of personalised medicine
                                                                                                IN VIVO
      IN VITRO                  IN VIVO                           IT
                                                                                                IN VITRO

       e.g.                    e.g. CT,MR                       e.g.                      e.g. CT/MRI radiation
 PCR, Immunoas               , PET/CT and                 PACS, electronic              treatment, Mammograph
       say                       Nuclear                   health records                y IVD Test and PET/CT
                                medicine                   and medication                      new marker
                                                            management




    Predict                  Diagnose                          Inform                         Treat


                              Diagnosis                       Surgery                        Therapy              Earlier Diagnosis
 Screening and
                                                             guidance
evaluate risk pre-         Prognosis/Asses                                               Monitoring long          Gain more specific
   disposition                 sment                         Therapy                          term                disease
                                                             selection
Symptom based              General Staging                                                   Follow up            information
  diagnosis                                                  Therapy                       Diagnosis of
                           Surgical Staging                                                                       Define best
                                                             planning                       recurrence
                                                                                                                  individual therapy
                                                            PHARMA                                                Knowledge based
                                                                                                                  decision support
                                                                                                                  through integrated
                                                                                                                  IT
                     INTEGRATION of in vivo, in vitro, and IT in the advancement of
                                      personalised medicine

                                          © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Earlier diagnosis, less invasive testing and adverse drug reactions drive clinical
                                   Diagram
                     acceptance of pharmacogenomic tests.
  Opportunistic Segments




                                                                                                                 Pharmacogenomics


                                                                                                       Molecular Testing
                                                  Efficient Decision Making
                                                  and Optimisation of
                                                                                           Cancer Testing
                                                  Treatments through POCT

                           Automation is a One                                                          Earlier Diagnosis
                           Time Investment                 Point-of-care Testing
                           Concept                                                                      Less Invasive Genetic Testing
                                                                                                        Encourages Patient Screening.

                                 Instrumentation and                                                    Adverse and Ineffective Drug
                                      Automation                                                        Reactions Drive Clinical Acceptance
                                                                                                        of Pharmacogenomic Tests


                                                            Growth Rate

                                                  © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
PEST Analysis of the Global Clinical Diagnostics Market

                  2007                                          2010                                               2015
  Political
                     More regulatory
                       challenges                                                          Increased harmonization
                                                                                             in the global market
                        Concerns over global harmonization of
                                  IVD regulations


Economical        Reimbursement for                     Challenges likely to                        More understanding
                      new tests                               prevail                               from payer groups

                  Less skilled laboratory               More adoption of pre                         Total laboratory
                       technicians                      analytical automation                          automation


                Demand for quality healthcare
   Social                                                       Bio threat
                   Ageing population                                                                  Tele medicine
                                                                                                                  POCT
                 Increasing incidence of diseases                                                          Evidence based
                                                       Focus on public health from
                   Emerging infections                      the government                                    diagnosis



Technological                     ELISA             POCT                            Isothermal based amplification
                                    PCR                                                      techniques
                             Lateral flow tests                                                 Nano-diagnostics
                                        Microarrays

                                   © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Market Data


                  Snapshot of Potential Opportunities


                         Key Trends



   European                PEST Analysis

Medical Devices
   Snapshot




                                                                                                        ?



                                                                    Reduced Hospital         Holistic solutions
                                  Hospital based                                           Integrating pharma,
                                                                    stay and increase            diagnostic
                                   Intervention
                                                                       in homecare        & monitoring elements



                             © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Buying Power: The changing priorities of Customers changes device markets
                                              2005
        Price, After sales service,                                               “Opportunities for differentiation move
        Reliable, frequent deliveries                                             into emphasis on safety, comfort and
                                                                                  mobility along with delivery and service”
Changing
Customer
                                                    2007
           Safety, comfort and mobility,
 Focus
           Delivery and service, Price


                                                          2010
           Comfort, mobility & safety, efficiency,
           One-stop combination solutions                                        The ambulatory, homecare and public access
                                                                 Opportunity              market expands rapidly

                                                                           Large scale purchasing orders give buyer
                                                         Challenge        advantage and often result in price squeeze
“Efficiency in sourcing becomes                                                 and/or bundling type practices
more important, hence complete
                                                               Increased awareness of infection control strategies
solutions and comprehensive                     Opportunity     opens alternative product differentiation avenues
portfolios are preferred”                                                                                               “Pricing     will
                                                              Cost-containment initiatives reduce profit
                                        Challenge                                                                       become      less
                                                                             margins
                                                                                                                        important in the
                                                    Cost-cutting in purchasing opens up opportunities
                                                                                                                        sense that price
                                Opportunity                        for low cost producers                               matching     will
                                                                                                                        become easier
                          Challenge                  Fast diffusion of innovation heats up
                                                                  competition
                                                                                                                        as companies
                                                                                                                        become more
                                          Outsourcing in production base and/or
                                                                                                                        nimble”
                  Opportunity               services reduces production costs
                                         © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Snapshot of Potential Opportunities – Europe, A Rapidly Expanding Market


High Revenues




  Projected
 Revenues In
    2012




Low Revenues



                Low                                                                 High
                                               Growth Rate (2007-2012)

                       © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Aligning Market Vision: Opportunities in the Medical Devices Market

                                                                                                       Raw Markets
                                                                                                       Developing/Growing Markets
Disease management




                                              Patient
 vs. device centred




                                             Monitoring                                                Mature Markets

                      Therapeutic Device
                                           Medical Procedure

                                                                                                                     Scandinavia
                                             Initial Event
                                                                                                                                      Russia

                                               At Risk
                                                                                         Ireland
                                                                                                        UK
                                              Wellness                                                                   Poland
                                                                                                                 Germany
                                                                                                                      Czech
 Future                                                                                                   France
                                                                                                                      Republic
                                                                                                                           Hungary
                 Tissue engineering and combination devices. Merging
                 devices with biological elements                                                                   Croatia      Serbia
                                                                                                                    Italy
                 Implanted diagnostics and monitors enabled by sensors                                                      Albania
                 Disease management approach
                 Novel drug delivery platforms in unmet needs and
                 indications – Hep C, Chronic Pain, Depression
                                                  © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Taking Stock and Looking Forward: PEST Analysis

                  2007                                            2010                                                2015
  Political                                                                                       Medical     tourism   and
                Moving production base
                                                      Changes in the Medical                      standardisation of medical
                and/or outsourcing results in
                                                      device directive and other                  provision changes market
                trade      agreements    and
                                                      standardisation measures                    potential and emphasis on
                political overtures
                                                      regulate markets                            a global basis


Economical      Single currency stimulates Pan- Rationalisation and reduction of hospital
                European trade                  resources creates additional pressure
                                                                Changes in the dynamics of healthcare provision
                    Diagnosis Related Groups rationalise the    affect funding and change routes of patient care
                    purchase and use of devices


   Social        An increasingly aging European
                                                                         Migration and changes in genetic make-up of
                 population has implications for
                                                                         populations affects healthcare strategies
                 healthcare provision
                                           Ambulatory and user-friendly devices along with combination
                                           devices expand the scope of medical device equipment


                 Minimally    invasive     surgical
Technological                                               Patient data management systems and freedom of
                 techniques       along        with         information change supply management strategies
                 combination devices increase
                 level of technical sophistication     Fast diffusion of technologies in medical devices leads to rapid rate
                                                       of obsolescence and increased emphasis on technical research
                                     © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Revenues


                  Key Trends


                       Key Opportunities


   Global
                         Future
  Medical
Technologies
  Trends




                               Disparate/Modular                                        Personal Health
                                                                 Clinical Systems      Management Tools
                                    Systems




                          © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Interoperability Key to Adoption in an Increasingly
                            Patient-centric Healthcare Delivery Model
                                              2007
                                                                                            Medical               Healthcare
             Volumetric Imaging Systems                                                     Imaging                   IT
             Web Based PACS


 Medical
                                                   2010
 Imaging
               Multimodality Systems                                                                      Patient
               Mobile/Roaming PACS                                                                       Monitoring

                                                                                The 3 areas are converging driven by a reorganization of HC
                                                            2015                delivery. From large scale hospital care with high density of
                 Image Enabled Electronic Health                                specializations and technologies to a network of competence
                 Records                                                        centres achieving high quality outcome and economies of
                                                                                scale, linked with primary and long term care facilities.




                                              2007                                                                   2007
             Networked Modular Systems                                             Clinical Systems



 Patient
                                                   2010                                                                        2010
                                                                     Healthcare      Next Generation Integrated
Monitoring
               Move from Critical Care
                                                                         IT
               towards Sub Acute Care                                                Clinical & Financial Systems


                                                          2015                                                                       2015
                  Monitoring of Patients at Home                                       Personal Health Management
                                                                                       Systems & Tools

                                       © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Snapshot of Potential Opportunities – Europe


High Revenues




  Projected
 Revenues In
    2012




Low Revenues



                Low                                                                       High
                                                     Growth Rate (2007-2012)

                             © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Next Generation clinical, administrative and financial IT systems & applications
enable medical error reduction, clinical optimization and evidence-based medicine
                                                                                                        Critical Care
 Mainstream Adoption by 2012                                                                            IT Systems
                                                                                                                           Integrated Clinical/
                                                                                 Personal Health                           Financial Systems
   To       facilitate  and    standardize    care                              Management Tools
   delivery, investment will go into sophisticated
   clinical, administrative and financial systems                                                                                      Personal
   such as the EMR, CPOE, PACS, ERP and                                                                                            “Cradle to Grave”
                                                                              EMR Access Through
                                                                                                                                    Health Records
   Enterprise Scheduling Systems.                                             Bedside Multimedia
                                                                              Terminals
                                                                                                             2012-2020
   The use of wireless devices within hospitals will                                                                                    ICU
                                                                                  Tele-Pathology                                    Telemedicine
   increase to the point where coverage and
   quality-of-service issues will almost disappear.
                                                                                         Patient
                                                                                         Self-Service                              Ambulatory EMR
                                                                                         Kiosks
                                                                                                             Disaster Recovery &
                                                                                                             Business Continuity
                      Emergency Dept
                        Automation
                                           Enterprise
    Physician &
   Patient portals
                                           Scheduling                  Mainstream Adoption by 2020

                                                                            Regulatory compliance will have a slow but steady
                                                     PACS/RIS
    ERP for                                                                 influence, particularly in the area of disaster recovery and
   Healthcare                                                               business continuity.
                           2007-2012
                                                     Cardiology             Clinical vendors offer more-comprehensive and affordable
                                                     PACS/CIS
       CPOE                                                                 remote-hosting and high-availability options

                                                                            Organizations that have already made the leap to “Next
                                                    EMR
       ePrescribing                                                         Generation” systems will be looking to further leverage
                                                                            their investments through physician and patient
                                        Remote
                        eVisits        Monitoring                           portals,  remote    access   applications  and   mobile
                                                                            extensions.
                                              © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Next Generation clinical, administrative and financial IT systems & applications
enable medical error reduction, clinical optimization and evidence-based medicine
                                                                                                       Semantic Web

                                                                                                                             Semantic
         While “return on investment”                                              Grid Computing                            Interoperability
         remains a critical factor for Health
         organizations when deciding IT
                                                                                   Data Lifecycle
                                                                                                                                    Bluetooth
         investments, it will not become the                                        Management
                                                                                                                                    Wireless
                                                                                                             2012-2020              Networking
         sole factor in determining the value
         of IT on service quality or outcomes.
                                                                                   Service Oriented
                                                                                       Architecture                                 RFID



                                                                                             Home Health
                                                                                                Services              HL7 V3 Messages

                   Business Process
                   Management
                                             Distributed
                                             Antenna Systems                            Home healthcare could evolve from a
    Biometrics
                                                   Speech Recognition
                                                                                        sporadic    practice  today   to    a
 Electronic Data
                                                                                        mainstream care delivery model in the
 Interchange                                         Hand-writing
                                                     Recognition
                                                                                        next 5-10 years.
                            2007-2012
                                                    Natural Language
                                                                                        Services         like       Online
  Tablet PCs
   & PDAs                                           Processing                          Consultations, In-home Vital Signs
                                                                                        Monitoring and Online Disease
                   VoIP                         Context Management
                                                   CCOW Protocol                        Management increasingly gaining
                            Enterprise MPI                                              momentum.

                                                © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
With the goal of creating a single view of a patient’s health information, hospitals are
investing in technologies to pull together all departmental systems into an integrated EHR
                               GPs/Physicians
                                                                                                      Integration cost    represents
           Cardiology                                 Intensive Care                                  15–20% of hospital IT budgets
                                                                                                      Main cause is lack of adequate
     Home Care                                              Emergency Room                            healthcare IT standards
                                                                                                      Current messaging and technology
                                                                                                      standards are not universally used
   Radiology
                                EHR                            Nursing                                in all product portfolios,
                                                                                                      interoperability between systems
                                                                                                      using all or some of these
  Rehabilitation                                             Surgery
                                                                                                      standards       has    not    been
                                                                                                      convincingly validated, while some
           Laboratory                                 Pharmacy
                                                                                                      of the standards conflict with one
                                                                                                      and other.
                               Billing/Finance




                                                 Regulations Governing Healthcare Stakeholders


          Legislation                            Standardisation                        Initiatives                 Business Compliance

           95/46/EC                          Messaging Standards                     JCAHO & NCQA                  Corporate Compliance

             HIPAA                         Terminology Standards                       CEN TC 251                   Business Continuity


   Single Market Regulations                Integration Interfaces                      21 CFR 11                       IT Security




                                                 © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Strong Foundations Required to Foster Widespread Adaptation of eHealth Models
 Medical Technologies Industry has the Opportunity to Build & Shape the Future

                                                Add Value for
                                             Patients & Providers
                 High Quality, Safe                                              Lower Cost
                    Health Care                                                  Health Care


               Security &                                                             Improved Public
            Fraud Detection                                                               Health



              Individuals Self-                                                   Personalized
             Manage their Health                     eHealth                      Health Care




                                                     Foster
                                                    Adoption
                       Enable Policies                                    Encourage Large
                                                                          Scale Pilots

                                      Ensure Clinician             Use Internationally
                                      Buy-in                       Accepted Interoperability
                                                                   Standards




                              © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
The magnitude of growth, the need for fast retrieval, 24/7 availability and improved
   record management is forcing a new look at operational data management.
    The amount of data generated, used and stored in the modern healthcare environment is increasing
    dramatically every year.


    No other industry in the past has                                                   Enterprise-wide   databases     are
    required such a phenomenal amount                                                   expected to grow 30-fold during the
                                                       Data Storage                     next decade.
    of data to be stored for such long
    periods of time.



 Data Generation                                                                        Data Access and Communication



                                                       Exa Bytes
  Integration Images for                                                                                           On the Move
  Context Based Medicine                                                                                           Data Access
                                    2020                                                2020
  3D – 4D Images
                                                                                                           Enterprise-wide PACS
  Video Images
                                  2015                                                      2015

  Digital Cardiology                                 Tera Bytes                                                Cardiology PACS
                             2010                                                                 2010

  Digital X Rays                                                                                                Radiology PACS
                           2005
                                                       Giga Bytes                                   2005



                                     © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
PACS & Software Services to Drive Growth in Medical Imaging Market




                                       Image management
                                       tools and services to
                                       contribute to greater
                                       market share.
Modality markets not
likely    to      show
considerable growth




                         © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Move from Critical Care to Sub-Acute Care Evident




         © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Russia & China High Growth Markets for Patient Monitoring Equipment




                   © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Major EHR Tenders are Being Issued & Planned Almost on a Weekly Basis
               Around the World – Your Challenge is to be Prepared…
Canada                        England
Infoway set up to design      Connecting for               Denmark
National EHR - $1.2           Health – more                National EHR
billion of government         than $10 billion             since 2006
backing                       until 2010
                                                                               Sweden
                                                                               Developing a
                                                                               National EHR
                              France
                              EHR Mandatory                                                                  China
                                                               Germany
USA                           by 2008                                                                        Plans to develop a
                                                               E-Health card                                 national EHR
Government           is
                                                               since January
promoting NHIN and
                                                               2007
RHIO’s       investing     Netherlands
$140 million to date.      88% of GPs                                                                          Hong Kong
                           have an EHR
                                                                                                               Territory wide
                                                                                                               Master Patient
                                                                                                               Index
 Mexico
 No EHR but
 aim for HL7                                                                                                   Singapore
 Integration                                                                   Malaysia                        EMR      system
                                                                               Lifetime Health                 being tendered
                                                                               Record by 2010
    Brazil
    National Health
    Card Project.

                                                                      Australia
   Argentina                                                          HealthConnect developing a
                                    South Africa
   Focus on digital                                                   National       Information
   radiography. EHR                 No EHR – but                      Network.
                                    infrastructure being                                           New Zealand
   also        being
   considered                       developed.                                                     National    EHR
                                                                                                   system in place

                                   © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
© 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Appendix




           © 2007 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Power patients actively shaping future healthcare systems
          Personalisation, Mobility and Consumerism coming fast into play
1.    Power Patient Generation: By 2012, 25% of patients will be power patients. More educated, wealthier, more demanding.

2.    Patients become Customers: Customer services become a defining factor for the choice of providers, products and
      services. “In short, it is the healthcare payers, not the drug makers, that are now defining the threshold of innovation”.

3.    Prevention Before Cure: Investing in early diagnostic tools and implementing modern IT systems to manage and deliver
      information, and introduce treatment earlier, so therapy can be more precise.

4.    Shift to Personalised Healthcare: Emerging of extremely specialised and highly personalised treatments based on
      individual’s genetic make-up.

5.    Healthcare globe trotters: Numerous countries are actively developing and promoting their medical capabilities in
      response to medical tourism. Cost of comparable treatment in South & West Asia i.e. India is on average between 10-
      20% of those in the West.

6.    Drugs get Smarter: Personalised dosages, non-invasive delivery methods etc.

7.    Hospitals go Virtual: Hospitals breaking physical silos to create virtual care networks. Bio connectivity devices become
      the standard.

8.    Innovation vs. Knowledge: Cutting edge research offer novel methodologies, treatments and drugs faster than ever
      before. Pace of knowledge grow is outstripping the amount and quality of skills set.

9.    Devices become monitors, monitors become devices: Internet connected medical devices enter the healthcare
      industry. A furious pace of innovation comes to dominate the healthcare device and medical technology industries.

10.   CyberDocs: nonhuman intelligence agents, will dispense medical care to patients and doctors worldwide to save money
      and share expertise.


                                        © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Oncology / Hematology, Antibiotics / Antivirals and Cardiovascular Lead the way
       in the Global Pharmaceutical Market in 2012 in terms of Market Size
              New markets will continue to emerge in obesity, aging. Targeted therapies will drive the well-established cancer and cardiovascular indications.


                                                                                                                                             Global Mortality
                                                                                                     Cardiovascular Disease
                                                                                                     Secondary prevention measures
                               New threats to health like Pandemic                                   and new therapies are shifting
                                       avian flu and SARS                                            treatment   from     inpatient to
                                                                                                     ambulatory care setting.

                                                         Number of diabetes patients                 Cancer
                                                         globally to reach 350 million
                                                                    by 2025                          The     treatment    model    is
                                                                                                     changing from acute to chronic
                                                                                                     disease      management      as
                                                                                                     mortality rates fall.      New
                                                                                                     treatments likely to have
                                                                                                     significant costs. Demand likely
                                                                                                     to grow in primary care
                                                                                                     settings.


                                                                                                     Respiratory Disease
                                                                                                     No major treatment improvements
                                                                                                     on the horizon. Unmet needs
                                                                                                     exist.


                                                                                                     Diabetes
                                                                                 Source : SG Cowen   Cell therapy, better monitoring
                                                                                                     and     new       pharmacological
Others: Include Transplant, Sleep Disorders, Alzheimer's, Incontinence, Orphan                       treatments      should      reduce
        Diseases, Sex Dysfunction, Ophthalmology, Obesity, Pain                                      mortality in the long term.

                                                       © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
Global Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Industry
Global Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Industry
Global Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Industry
Global Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Industry
Global Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Industry

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Global Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Industry

  • 1. 360 Degree CEO Perspective of the Global Healthcare Industry © 2008 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan
  • 2. The CEO’s Perspective of the Complex Business Universe TECHNOLOGY Economic Growth Emerging Trends & Process Technology Competitive Issues BEST Benchmarking PRACTICES Emerging External Competition Industry GLOBAL Impact Emerging INDUSTRY Career Opportunities Development Cultural Industry Non Integration Customer Political CEO Demo- & Industry graphics CUSTOMER Regulatory Convergence Economic Trends Economic Industry Disruptive Threats Expansion Technologies Potential Industry Shifts Behavior COMPETITIVE Competitor’s Country Customers Risk Competitive In-Direct Strategy New Competition Applications Growth Growth Functions Team ECONOMIC © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 3. Agenda A Global Healthcare Industry Outlook B Overview By Area 1. Top 10 Global Healthcare Trends 1. Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 2. The Triple Healthcare Crisis 2. Clinical Diagnostics 3. Shifting Healthcare Expectations 3. Medical Devices 4. Convergence in Healthcare 4. Medical Technologies 5. Healthcare Paradigm Shift 6. Hot Spots & Emerging Geographies 7. PESTLE Analysis 8. Opportunity Analysis – Major Areas © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 4. Top 10 Global Healthcare Trends The Triple Healthcare Crisis Shifting Healthcare Expectations Global Healthcare Convergence in Healthcare Industry Outlook Healthcare Paradigm Shift Hot Spots & Emerging Geographies PESTLE Analysis Opportunity Analysis © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 5. Top 10 Global Healthcare Trends 2007 – 2020 High Impact Power Patient Generation Drugs get Smarter Shift to Personalised Healthcare Innovation vs. Prevention Before Knowledge Cure Healthcare globe trotters Projected Patients become Impact on the Customers Healthcare Cyber Docs Industry Hospitals go Virtual Devices become monitors, monitors become devices Low Impact Low High Certainty © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 6. Patients become healthcare Kings and Queens, Medical communities become interconnected while doctor-patient relationship goes virtual. Major 2010 2015 2020 Trend Power Patient Patients gain access to Patient Centred Care Patients become 1 Generation health quality information Baby Boomer Retirement Starts healthcare Kings and Queens Patients Become Consumerism One Stop Shop 2 Customers Holistic health and well being Customised Products Home Services Prevention 3 Before Cure Early Treatment Implementation of IT Precise therapy becomes reality Personalised Genetic Testing Information based medicine Wellness Care Presymptomatic diagnostics 4 Healthcare Targeted Clinical Trials Major diseases understood at molecular level & treatments Healthcare Immediate Treatment abroad "medical tourism" crosses Private Companies invest in 5 Globe Trotters becomes an option the US$2 billion mark facilities and services abroad Smarter Drug cocktails will enhance productivity, memory, 6 Drugs Non-invasive delivery and physical performance Hospitals Go Medical communities (1°, 2° care) Regional/Country-wide 7 Virtual All departments/buildings within hospitals are connected become interconnected Connectivity Innovation vs. 8 Knowledge War for Medical Talent Baby Boomer Retirement Starts Medical professionals keep up with knowledge growth. 9 Devices Become Monitors Disease management Remote Patient Monitoring Self-monitoring Virtual face to face 10 CyberDocs doctor- patient relationship Perform routine diagnostics with predictive precision Cheaper care available to more people in need © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 7. Healthcare is challenged by three interlocking crises that make present healthcare systems unsustainable Healthcare is challenged by three interlocking crises that make present healthcare systems The Size of the Problem – Quality unsustainable: Rising Costs, 15% of patients admitted to hospital Changing Demographics suffer an adverse event. Quality 8% of adverse events result in death. 6% of adverse events result in permanent disability. 10-20% of all adverse events is caused by medication errors. 10-15% of hospital admissions occur because providers do not have access to previous care records. 20% of laboratory tests are requested because the results of previous investigations are not accessible. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 8. If current trends hold, by 2050 health care spending will almost double claiming 20 – 30% of GDP for some economies. In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income. No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 9. The balance between young and old is shifting. Ageing related and chronic diseases, are becoming significant. More people living with multiple long term illness and conditions. In 2000, 10% (606 million) of the global population was aged 60+. By 2050 this will be more than 21% (2 billion). People aged 60+ utilize 3-5 times more healthcare services than younger people. 75% of people aged 60+ have one chronic condition, while 50% have two or more chronic conditions. Chronic diseases account for more than 60% of all health care spending. Health economics dictate a shift in spending – away from treating and towards predicting, diagnosing and © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com monitoring
  • 10. Consumer experiences in other markets affecting expectations from healthcare Greater variety of Retailing providers, products and & Finance services e.g. expensive Customer service health plans and alternative Comparison Shopping Manufacturing medicine services Self-Service & Distribution Special Offers Faster time to market Power patients have increased access Healthcare One Stop Shop Anytime Anywhere Care to computers and information Supply Chain Integration through multiple channels to seek and analyse health information Entertainment & Media Customised Products Home Services Health care that is customized to monitor, diagnose, edu cate, and intervene Freedom to make regardless of location or own decisions time-will be common. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 11. Convergence in healthcare enables personalisation, targeted medicines, new drug delivery mechanisms, virtual patient monitoring tools, allowing a preventative approach to healthcare Bio Chips: Controlled Released Disease Management Tailored Treatments- Telemedicine Genomic/Proteomics based Drug Delivery Health Management Predictive tests Remote Patient Monitoring Gene Mapping & Functional Analysis Preventative Programmes Life Sciences Nanotechnology IT / Digital Information Systems Delivery Systems Technology…….Enables it Economics………………Require it Demographics………….Demand it Medical Medical Devices Technologies © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 12. Riding on a wave of technical innovations Healthcare will change from an acute “find it and fix it” system to a “wellness tracking” system Current Healthcare Systems Future Healthcare Systems Suffer from the Must Apply a “RADAR” Syndrome “GPS” Logic Telehealth Patient Appears for virtual (falls sick) interactions Patient is treated “find it and fix it” Patient is discharged Web portals to EHR Sharable Systems Personal Patient then disappears from radar screen Health Patient Scan Records Good Chronic Disease care System oriented to acute illness Patient’s role not emphasised Patient Provider Follow up sporadic Support Support Tools Tools Prevention overlooked Home monitoring devices Electronics Health Records (EHRs) Personal Health Records Chronic Disease Management Systems Web- based education and support Personal Digital Assistants Disease Management Program © 2007 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 13. A modern healthcare system is on the horizon demanding a Healthcare Paradigm Shift ...From ...To Fragmented Patient Flow Integrated & automated Invasive Diagnosis & Less invasive, Preventative, Treatment image based Provider Centric Focus Patient Centric Centralised – Hospital Monitor De-Centralised–Shift to Community One Size Fits All Approach Personalised Medicine Therapeutics/Diagnostics/ “Theranostics” Devices Tools Treating Sickness Objective Preventing Sickness – “Wellness” © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 14. Threats arise from unconventional players outside the traditional healthcare boundary Agriculture & Food Companies Biotech is the changing face of agriculture. Biotech crops were planted in 18 countries in 2004. By 2010, it is projected that 15 million Employers & Government farmers will grow genetically modified crops on 2007 : Integrated Healthcare up to 375 million acres in 30 countries. Management in the US has been launched as the systematic application of processes and shared information to optimize the coordination of benefits Chemical Companies and care for the healthcare consumer 2007:Roche and Toyama Chemical enter licensing agreement to develop potential Healthcare Companies breakthrough drug to treat rheumatoid arthritis Consumer Product Companies 2007 : SUPERMARKETS in the UK are increasingly becoming one‐stop‐shops for everything by branching out into Telecommunication Companies healthcare, with everything from in‐store pharmacies to blood tests, blood pressure 2007 : Orange launches "Connected Hospital", its first e‐healthcare offering designed to improve checks and health checks on your lungs. patient comfort and care quality 2008: Virgin Group launched a new healthcare network. The first of six “one‐stop shops” clinics will offer extra NHS and private services including dentistry, screening, a pharmacy and complementary therapies alongside GP practices. Ultimately, offering wider options for patients. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 15. A Look at the Future: Patient Centric Health & Wellness Care Web of Care NanoCare Mobile EHR Implantable eCare Smart eHomes Wearable BioSensors Health Robots Decision Support © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 16. A Look at the Future: Patient Centric Health & Wellness Care EcoMedicine Doctors Friends NanoMedicine & Medical & Team Family eHealth Pre-emptive Medicine Advisor Network Coaches Online Support Regenerative Medicine & Advocates Communities Digital Medicine Self Care My Health & Wellbeing Databases Diet Humor Lifestyle Mind Exercise & & & Stress Body & & Nutrition Joy Reduction Spirit Fitness © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 17. A Look at the Future: Patient Centric Health & Wellness Care © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 18. Hot Spots and Emerging Geographies Canada Relatively high government UK/Scandinavian Countries spending on healthcare, small High government spending on number of local market healthcare IT, large market, high players, sizeable market number of healthcare IT players. Hong Kong Germany/Switzerland High government U.S. High spending on spending on Huge healthcare healthcare, large market with healthcare, small market and not too many market domestic growing, large players, increasing focus on market, gateway to opportunities, niche eHealth and digitization China players will be more India successful Large market, low operating costs, excellent local skills, high local competition, Distribution hub to the Middle- and South-East of Asia Venezuela & Colombia Constituting part of the Andean Region are the fastest growing countries in many HC categories due to large public investment Sub-Saharan Africa Limited current government spending on healthcare Australia & New Zealand IT, increases planned in the High government spending on Brazil & Mexico future. Private sector healthcare IT, small number of local Two largest healthcare developing increasing focus market players, increasing focus on markets in Latin America and on eHealth. Moderate number eHealth and digitization growing at a sustained pace of players mainly operating from South Africa. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 19. PESTLE Analysis – Timeline 2010 2015 2020 Growing Political Focus and Increasing harmonisation POLITICAL Pressure on Healthcare Increase influence by regulatory bodies Spend per capita on health globally grows Reduction in pharma growth Global ‘Not for Profit’ Pharma ECONOMIC (business model changes) Supply for developing countries Divide between the EU, US and rest of the world grows Patient Centric Healthcare Ageing population Health awareness (prevention) SOCIAL Personalised healthcare Increasing pressure from patient groups Raised consumer expectations Medical Ethics Health education Increasing customer awareness Information Based Systems Internet Pharmacogenomics Genomic Drugs TECHNO- Direct to Patient Advertising Combined diagnostics and therapeutics LOGICAL Health card / Smart Cards Drug Design Customised treatments Therapeutics>Theranostics (Rx/Dx) Privacy Genetic Discrimination LEGAL Biogenerics/biosimilars Faster Drug Approvals Medical Errors / Safety ENVIRON- Mergers and Acquisitions Development of specialist therapy providers MENTAL Biotech companies transition to Pharma companies Impact of HIV and other pandemics © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 20. Opportunity Analysis – Major Areas (Europe), 2007-2012 High Revenues Pharmaceuticals Projected Revenues In 2012 ($ Billions) Medical Devices Drug Discovery Biotech Low Revenues Clinical Diagnostics Patient Monitoring Healthcare IT Medical Imaging Low High Growth Rate (2007-2012) © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 21. Market Data Snapshot of Potential Opportunities Key Trends Global Emerging Markets Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Trends ? Integrated Model, Pharmaceuticals, Biotech, Generics, Gene Therapy, Blockbuster Model Local Players Global Players © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 22. Changes in the Global Pharmaceutical Environment Require Pharmaceutical and Diagram Biotech Companies to Adapt to Changing Business Models Pre 2005 2015 Blockbuster Model Preventative Healthcare & Wellness Astounding growth in the vaccines industry 2015 Opportunities Marketing of Value Added Services in the Global Niche Drugs and R&D Genomics and proteomics expected to Pharma Market reduce R&D times ‘In life testing’ will take over the current 2020 clinical trial process. Continuous data monitoring can be done by the regulators Integration & Supply Chain during the testing process. Clinical trials will eventually become shorter 2020 Integrated packages of products and services Supply chain functions will evolve to a revenue generating model. Products and services will be Patient monitoring & compliance marketed through the supply chain Pharma and medical devices providing Just –in time manufacturing, novel delivery sophisticated and efficacious solutions methods and direct to consumer distribution will Integration of pharma, diagnostics, medical be adapted from other industries like the devices, patient monitoring and healthcare IT automotive industry Will result in a high profile, risk free, user Automated dispensing of drugs friendly, low cost and safe healthcare solution Smart cards / internet to store patients details © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 23. Cancer represents the highest potential for revenue generation and growth in the future High Revenues Established Treatments Projected Unmet Needs Revenues In 2012 Low Revenues Low High Growth Rate (2007-2012) © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 24. Increasing Focus on Biologics in the Future Cancer Related Drugs Constitute Half of the Current Biotech Pipeline. Phase III: 5-10 years to launch Cancer Pipeline 2007 – Split by Phase III & I Monoclonal Antibodies constitute half of the Phase III biotech 2007 pipeline. More Monoclonal Antibodies are likely to reach the market in the next 5-10 years. Phase I: 10-15 years to launch Cancer vaccines are an emerging technology that are likely to create the next wave of growth in the biotechnology industry because of better safety profiles and minimal side effects Other: Includes genetic disorders, skin disorders, eye conditions, growth disorders, transplantation © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 25. The Next Five Years will see more than 70 Major Drugs come Off-patent in the Major Markets within US and Europe. Beyond 2011 Increasing Focus on Biologics Beyond 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011……… US US US US Decreasing number 14 drugs lose patent protection Five major drugs lose The US patent for Lipitor Patent protection expires for 10 of small molecule (include super blockbusters patent protection expires and for 12 other major drugs in the US (includes drugs (includes the the superblockbusters Seroquel patent expires Effexor and Fosamax, and (includes Prevacid) blockbusters Levaquin, and Zyprexa, plus three other beyond 2013 potentially Advair) Cozaar and Protonix) blockbusters) EU Biologics will be the Nine drugs lose patent EU focus within hospitals protection in at least one of the Seven drugs lose patent EU EU in the injectables field major European countries protection in at least one Five drugs become exposed Four of these, including (including both Fosamax and of the major countries to generic competition with Zyprexa, lose patent protection Within the EU and US, Effexor) (including Nexium, Keppra the most significant in three major European there is increasing Pantozol and Cozaar) of these countries, as do seven other drugs, most notably Lipitor in competition from low November 2011 cost competitors Market Size (2007-2012) Source: IMS © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 26. Gene Therapy will Drive the Market in the Longer Term. Technologies such as Diagram Pervasive computing are Important in Improving the Drug Discovery Process. Smart Tags Petaflop Predictive & Grid biosimulation computing Future Technology Trends Advanced Defining diseases more Pervasive accurately and creating Gene therapy uses genes to treat or computing storage prevent disease. In the future, this solutions healthcare packages for technique will allow doctors to treat a Web-scale patients with specific disease disorder by inserting a gene into a mining subtypes. Resulting in Premium Drugs and the patient’s cells instead of using drugs launch of health care kiosks or surgery A disease led approach creates a new discovery and Opportunities offering one-stop-shop development model. Technology will improve the process e.g. services making in-life testing more cost efficient. This brings significant changes for pharma companies in terms of time, development costs and success rates to man. Genomics / Gene Proteomics Cellomics Therapy, Biologics: Targeted Treatment Solutions, Integrated Semi Block Solutions Busters, Patent Expiration Strategies Growth Rate © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 27. Shift in Growth from Mature Markets to Emerging Markets Central and Eastern Europe China High unmet needs in Cardiovascular and respiratory disease treatments API manufacturing hub Increasing private healthcare expenditure – co-payments on the rise Increasing competency in R&D Markets are dependant on parallel imports for innovative medicines outsourcing Russia, Poland, Czech and Hungary demonstrating healthy R&D climate Anti-infectives and Cardiovascular Turkey: Ability to produce active ingredients and finished products drugs – fastest growing markets Improved IP laws – potentially attractive climate for FDI Brazil Latin American hub for FDI and exports to neighboring nations Government policies favour generics use – branded drugs’ revenues are low Korea Recognized potential for CRO and Innovative capability CMO growth – still in and well developed development phase India industry Highly skilled labor and low costs – attractive market for partnerships (CRO, CMO) (APIs) Pharmaceutical companies with global presence US FDA approved labs – preferred destination for R&D outsourcing Weak IP protection – a concern Argentina Approval of ‘Generics law’- patients choose between branded and generic drugs Singapore Marketing strategy focused on US-Singapore FTA – Asia-Pacific Manufacturing hub patients, moving away from Highly competent facilities for clinical trials and drug physicians development Emerging market with huge Favorable investment policies – Asia-Pacific potential for R&D outsourcing headquarters of major foreign pharma companies © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 28. Market Data Snapshot of Potential Opportunities Key Trends Global PEST Analysis Clinical Diagnostics Trends Integrated with Neglected sector Hottest area other HC sectors © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 29. Increased patient driven initiatives have secured diagnostics considerable market Diagram growth potential causing significant healthcare cost savings 2005 Demand Volume Secondary Care Affordability Waiting Lists Changes in 2010 Public Anxiety the demand for healthcare Development of demand diagnostics Primary Care management policies and strategies e.g. demand driven financing 2015 Home Care/ Self Testing Pharmaceutical / Patient Driven Biotechnology Available personalised healthcare and choice Patient knowledge through multiple channels Public pressure on government Information IVD Imaging Technology One stop shop Consumer responsive providers, products and services. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 30. Snapshot of Potential Opportunities - Global High Revenues Projected Revenues In 2012 Low Revenues Low High Growth Rate (2007-2012) © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 31. The next 10 years will witness the Integrations of in vivo, in vitro, and IT in the advancement of personalised medicine IN VIVO IN VITRO IN VIVO IT IN VITRO e.g. e.g. CT,MR e.g. e.g. CT/MRI radiation PCR, Immunoas , PET/CT and PACS, electronic treatment, Mammograph say Nuclear health records y IVD Test and PET/CT medicine and medication new marker management Predict Diagnose Inform Treat Diagnosis Surgery Therapy Earlier Diagnosis Screening and guidance evaluate risk pre- Prognosis/Asses Monitoring long Gain more specific disposition sment Therapy term disease selection Symptom based General Staging Follow up information diagnosis Therapy Diagnosis of Surgical Staging Define best planning recurrence individual therapy PHARMA Knowledge based decision support through integrated IT INTEGRATION of in vivo, in vitro, and IT in the advancement of personalised medicine © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 32. Earlier diagnosis, less invasive testing and adverse drug reactions drive clinical Diagram acceptance of pharmacogenomic tests. Opportunistic Segments Pharmacogenomics Molecular Testing Efficient Decision Making and Optimisation of Cancer Testing Treatments through POCT Automation is a One Earlier Diagnosis Time Investment Point-of-care Testing Concept Less Invasive Genetic Testing Encourages Patient Screening. Instrumentation and Adverse and Ineffective Drug Automation Reactions Drive Clinical Acceptance of Pharmacogenomic Tests Growth Rate © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 33. PEST Analysis of the Global Clinical Diagnostics Market 2007 2010 2015 Political More regulatory challenges Increased harmonization in the global market Concerns over global harmonization of IVD regulations Economical Reimbursement for Challenges likely to More understanding new tests prevail from payer groups Less skilled laboratory More adoption of pre Total laboratory technicians analytical automation automation Demand for quality healthcare Social Bio threat Ageing population Tele medicine POCT Increasing incidence of diseases Evidence based Focus on public health from Emerging infections the government diagnosis Technological ELISA POCT Isothermal based amplification PCR techniques Lateral flow tests Nano-diagnostics Microarrays © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 34. Market Data Snapshot of Potential Opportunities Key Trends European PEST Analysis Medical Devices Snapshot ? Reduced Hospital Holistic solutions Hospital based Integrating pharma, stay and increase diagnostic Intervention in homecare & monitoring elements © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 35. Buying Power: The changing priorities of Customers changes device markets 2005 Price, After sales service, “Opportunities for differentiation move Reliable, frequent deliveries into emphasis on safety, comfort and mobility along with delivery and service” Changing Customer 2007 Safety, comfort and mobility, Focus Delivery and service, Price 2010 Comfort, mobility & safety, efficiency, One-stop combination solutions The ambulatory, homecare and public access Opportunity market expands rapidly Large scale purchasing orders give buyer Challenge advantage and often result in price squeeze “Efficiency in sourcing becomes and/or bundling type practices more important, hence complete Increased awareness of infection control strategies solutions and comprehensive Opportunity opens alternative product differentiation avenues portfolios are preferred” “Pricing will Cost-containment initiatives reduce profit Challenge become less margins important in the Cost-cutting in purchasing opens up opportunities sense that price Opportunity for low cost producers matching will become easier Challenge Fast diffusion of innovation heats up competition as companies become more Outsourcing in production base and/or nimble” Opportunity services reduces production costs © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 36. Snapshot of Potential Opportunities – Europe, A Rapidly Expanding Market High Revenues Projected Revenues In 2012 Low Revenues Low High Growth Rate (2007-2012) © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 37. Aligning Market Vision: Opportunities in the Medical Devices Market Raw Markets Developing/Growing Markets Disease management Patient vs. device centred Monitoring Mature Markets Therapeutic Device Medical Procedure Scandinavia Initial Event Russia At Risk Ireland UK Wellness Poland Germany Czech Future France Republic Hungary Tissue engineering and combination devices. Merging devices with biological elements Croatia Serbia Italy Implanted diagnostics and monitors enabled by sensors Albania Disease management approach Novel drug delivery platforms in unmet needs and indications – Hep C, Chronic Pain, Depression © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 38. Taking Stock and Looking Forward: PEST Analysis 2007 2010 2015 Political Medical tourism and Moving production base Changes in the Medical standardisation of medical and/or outsourcing results in device directive and other provision changes market trade agreements and standardisation measures potential and emphasis on political overtures regulate markets a global basis Economical Single currency stimulates Pan- Rationalisation and reduction of hospital European trade resources creates additional pressure Changes in the dynamics of healthcare provision Diagnosis Related Groups rationalise the affect funding and change routes of patient care purchase and use of devices Social An increasingly aging European Migration and changes in genetic make-up of population has implications for populations affects healthcare strategies healthcare provision Ambulatory and user-friendly devices along with combination devices expand the scope of medical device equipment Minimally invasive surgical Technological Patient data management systems and freedom of techniques along with information change supply management strategies combination devices increase level of technical sophistication Fast diffusion of technologies in medical devices leads to rapid rate of obsolescence and increased emphasis on technical research © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 39. Revenues Key Trends Key Opportunities Global Future Medical Technologies Trends Disparate/Modular Personal Health Clinical Systems Management Tools Systems © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 40. Interoperability Key to Adoption in an Increasingly Patient-centric Healthcare Delivery Model 2007 Medical Healthcare Volumetric Imaging Systems Imaging IT Web Based PACS Medical 2010 Imaging Multimodality Systems Patient Mobile/Roaming PACS Monitoring The 3 areas are converging driven by a reorganization of HC 2015 delivery. From large scale hospital care with high density of Image Enabled Electronic Health specializations and technologies to a network of competence Records centres achieving high quality outcome and economies of scale, linked with primary and long term care facilities. 2007 2007 Networked Modular Systems Clinical Systems Patient 2010 2010 Healthcare Next Generation Integrated Monitoring Move from Critical Care IT towards Sub Acute Care Clinical & Financial Systems 2015 2015 Monitoring of Patients at Home Personal Health Management Systems & Tools © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 41. Snapshot of Potential Opportunities – Europe High Revenues Projected Revenues In 2012 Low Revenues Low High Growth Rate (2007-2012) © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 42. Next Generation clinical, administrative and financial IT systems & applications enable medical error reduction, clinical optimization and evidence-based medicine Critical Care Mainstream Adoption by 2012 IT Systems Integrated Clinical/ Personal Health Financial Systems To facilitate and standardize care Management Tools delivery, investment will go into sophisticated clinical, administrative and financial systems Personal such as the EMR, CPOE, PACS, ERP and “Cradle to Grave” EMR Access Through Health Records Enterprise Scheduling Systems. Bedside Multimedia Terminals 2012-2020 The use of wireless devices within hospitals will ICU Tele-Pathology Telemedicine increase to the point where coverage and quality-of-service issues will almost disappear. Patient Self-Service Ambulatory EMR Kiosks Disaster Recovery & Business Continuity Emergency Dept Automation Enterprise Physician & Patient portals Scheduling Mainstream Adoption by 2020 Regulatory compliance will have a slow but steady PACS/RIS ERP for influence, particularly in the area of disaster recovery and Healthcare business continuity. 2007-2012 Cardiology Clinical vendors offer more-comprehensive and affordable PACS/CIS CPOE remote-hosting and high-availability options Organizations that have already made the leap to “Next EMR ePrescribing Generation” systems will be looking to further leverage their investments through physician and patient Remote eVisits Monitoring portals, remote access applications and mobile extensions. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 43. Next Generation clinical, administrative and financial IT systems & applications enable medical error reduction, clinical optimization and evidence-based medicine Semantic Web Semantic While “return on investment” Grid Computing Interoperability remains a critical factor for Health organizations when deciding IT Data Lifecycle Bluetooth investments, it will not become the Management Wireless 2012-2020 Networking sole factor in determining the value of IT on service quality or outcomes. Service Oriented Architecture RFID Home Health Services HL7 V3 Messages Business Process Management Distributed Antenna Systems Home healthcare could evolve from a Biometrics Speech Recognition sporadic practice today to a Electronic Data mainstream care delivery model in the Interchange Hand-writing Recognition next 5-10 years. 2007-2012 Natural Language Services like Online Tablet PCs & PDAs Processing Consultations, In-home Vital Signs Monitoring and Online Disease VoIP Context Management CCOW Protocol Management increasingly gaining Enterprise MPI momentum. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 44. With the goal of creating a single view of a patient’s health information, hospitals are investing in technologies to pull together all departmental systems into an integrated EHR GPs/Physicians Integration cost represents Cardiology Intensive Care 15–20% of hospital IT budgets Main cause is lack of adequate Home Care Emergency Room healthcare IT standards Current messaging and technology standards are not universally used Radiology EHR Nursing in all product portfolios, interoperability between systems using all or some of these Rehabilitation Surgery standards has not been convincingly validated, while some Laboratory Pharmacy of the standards conflict with one and other. Billing/Finance Regulations Governing Healthcare Stakeholders Legislation Standardisation Initiatives Business Compliance 95/46/EC Messaging Standards JCAHO & NCQA Corporate Compliance HIPAA Terminology Standards CEN TC 251 Business Continuity Single Market Regulations Integration Interfaces 21 CFR 11 IT Security © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 45. Strong Foundations Required to Foster Widespread Adaptation of eHealth Models Medical Technologies Industry has the Opportunity to Build & Shape the Future Add Value for Patients & Providers High Quality, Safe Lower Cost Health Care Health Care Security & Improved Public Fraud Detection Health Individuals Self- Personalized Manage their Health eHealth Health Care Foster Adoption Enable Policies Encourage Large Scale Pilots Ensure Clinician Use Internationally Buy-in Accepted Interoperability Standards © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 46. The magnitude of growth, the need for fast retrieval, 24/7 availability and improved record management is forcing a new look at operational data management. The amount of data generated, used and stored in the modern healthcare environment is increasing dramatically every year. No other industry in the past has Enterprise-wide databases are required such a phenomenal amount expected to grow 30-fold during the Data Storage next decade. of data to be stored for such long periods of time. Data Generation Data Access and Communication Exa Bytes Integration Images for On the Move Context Based Medicine Data Access 2020 2020 3D – 4D Images Enterprise-wide PACS Video Images 2015 2015 Digital Cardiology Tera Bytes Cardiology PACS 2010 2010 Digital X Rays Radiology PACS 2005 Giga Bytes 2005 © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 47. PACS & Software Services to Drive Growth in Medical Imaging Market Image management tools and services to contribute to greater market share. Modality markets not likely to show considerable growth © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 48. Move from Critical Care to Sub-Acute Care Evident © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 49. Russia & China High Growth Markets for Patient Monitoring Equipment © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 50. Major EHR Tenders are Being Issued & Planned Almost on a Weekly Basis Around the World – Your Challenge is to be Prepared… Canada England Infoway set up to design Connecting for Denmark National EHR - $1.2 Health – more National EHR billion of government than $10 billion since 2006 backing until 2010 Sweden Developing a National EHR France EHR Mandatory China Germany USA by 2008 Plans to develop a E-Health card national EHR Government is since January promoting NHIN and 2007 RHIO’s investing Netherlands $140 million to date. 88% of GPs Hong Kong have an EHR Territory wide Master Patient Index Mexico No EHR but aim for HL7 Singapore Integration Malaysia EMR system Lifetime Health being tendered Record by 2010 Brazil National Health Card Project. Australia Argentina HealthConnect developing a South Africa Focus on digital National Information radiography. EHR No EHR – but Network. infrastructure being New Zealand also being considered developed. National EHR system in place © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 51. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 52. Appendix © 2007 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 53. Power patients actively shaping future healthcare systems Personalisation, Mobility and Consumerism coming fast into play 1. Power Patient Generation: By 2012, 25% of patients will be power patients. More educated, wealthier, more demanding. 2. Patients become Customers: Customer services become a defining factor for the choice of providers, products and services. “In short, it is the healthcare payers, not the drug makers, that are now defining the threshold of innovation”. 3. Prevention Before Cure: Investing in early diagnostic tools and implementing modern IT systems to manage and deliver information, and introduce treatment earlier, so therapy can be more precise. 4. Shift to Personalised Healthcare: Emerging of extremely specialised and highly personalised treatments based on individual’s genetic make-up. 5. Healthcare globe trotters: Numerous countries are actively developing and promoting their medical capabilities in response to medical tourism. Cost of comparable treatment in South & West Asia i.e. India is on average between 10- 20% of those in the West. 6. Drugs get Smarter: Personalised dosages, non-invasive delivery methods etc. 7. Hospitals go Virtual: Hospitals breaking physical silos to create virtual care networks. Bio connectivity devices become the standard. 8. Innovation vs. Knowledge: Cutting edge research offer novel methodologies, treatments and drugs faster than ever before. Pace of knowledge grow is outstripping the amount and quality of skills set. 9. Devices become monitors, monitors become devices: Internet connected medical devices enter the healthcare industry. A furious pace of innovation comes to dominate the healthcare device and medical technology industries. 10. CyberDocs: nonhuman intelligence agents, will dispense medical care to patients and doctors worldwide to save money and share expertise. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com
  • 54. Oncology / Hematology, Antibiotics / Antivirals and Cardiovascular Lead the way in the Global Pharmaceutical Market in 2012 in terms of Market Size New markets will continue to emerge in obesity, aging. Targeted therapies will drive the well-established cancer and cardiovascular indications. Global Mortality Cardiovascular Disease Secondary prevention measures New threats to health like Pandemic and new therapies are shifting avian flu and SARS treatment from inpatient to ambulatory care setting. Number of diabetes patients Cancer globally to reach 350 million by 2025 The treatment model is changing from acute to chronic disease management as mortality rates fall. New treatments likely to have significant costs. Demand likely to grow in primary care settings. Respiratory Disease No major treatment improvements on the horizon. Unmet needs exist. Diabetes Source : SG Cowen Cell therapy, better monitoring and new pharmacological Others: Include Transplant, Sleep Disorders, Alzheimer's, Incontinence, Orphan treatments should reduce Diseases, Sex Dysfunction, Ophthalmology, Obesity, Pain mortality in the long term. © 2008 Frost & Sullivan, All rights reserved www.frost.com