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Paul Bowler
Head of Delivery
@spbowler @RadicalCo
31st January, 2013
Think again!
How our decision-making processes
get us into trouble
The Project
The Plan
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target
Intention
The kickoff
Iteration 1
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual
Iteration 1
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual
Iteration 2
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 2
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 3
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 3
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 4
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
The Steering Group
The NEW Plan
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iteration 5
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Iterations 6-12
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
What were they thinking?
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Velocity
Iteration
Target Actual Original
Hindsight bias
Overconfidence effect
Planning fallacy
Availability bias
Texas sharpshooter
fallacy
Selection bias
Confirmation Bias
Subjective validation
bias
Precision bias
Estimation anti-patterns
• Ask an expert
• Ask him (or her) face-to-face
• Know the answer you want in advance
• Confuse precision with accuracy
• If the answer doesn’t match your figure
then ask somebody else
Why was the plan
accepted?
Framing effect
Interloper effect
False consensus effect
Survivor bias
Optimism bias
Bandwagon effect
What happened next?
Outcome bias
Correspondence bias
"When I'm wrong it's through
circumstances beyond my
control.When you're wrong it's
through incompetence."
Cognitive dissonance
Optimism vs Blame (Hypothesis)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Aggregateas%
Iteration
Optimism Blame
Why wasn’t the project
stopped?
Sunk cost fallacy
Pseudocertainty effect
Optimism
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Aggregateas%
Iteration
Optimism
Information bias
...and many more
Where do these biases
come from?
Extended Concentration
0
20
40
60
80
100
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Concentrationas%
Elapsed Time (mins)
Concentration
System1
System 2
Biases
Beliefs
Behaviours
Antidotes?
“Vigilance, persistence
and a healthy dose of
skepticism!”
Sheena Iyengar
When unsure,
think again.
When certain,
definitely think again!
Thank you.
linkedIn: paulbowler
twitter: @spbowler
email: paul.bowler@radicalcompany.com
web: radicalcompany.com

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