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The Impact of Weather on Consumer Demand
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Brief overview of the impact of weather on consumer demand and retail sales
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The Impact of Weather on Consumer Demand
1.
Weather and Consumer
Demand Overview
2.
Our Mission
We help companies make more money by systematically planning for the influence of weather on consumers and business © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
3.
Weather and Consumers •
Weather is a fundamental yet often overlooked driver of consumer demand • Results in unexpected upside/downside volatility in same-store sales results − Particularly during the high margin spring transition season • Easier to measure and predict than almost any other influence on consumer activity © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
4.
Retail Sectors Impacted •
Off-the-Mall Specialty Retail • Mass Merchants/Club Stores • Mall-based Specialty Retail • Department Stores • Home Centers • Restaurants/C-Stores © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
5.
Weather Considerations •
Weather impact on consumer behavior a factor of: − Merchandise Assortment − Market/Geography − Demographics − Spending power − Fiscal calendar − Prior month © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
6.
Weather and Consumers •
Temperature – Primary “strategic” demand indicator – Departures from normal and prior year are key – Impacts large population centers and geographies – Correlates strongly to sales of seasonal merchandise – Predictable at seasonal (year ahead) time scales • Precipitation/Snow – Weekend, daytime events the biggest impact – Traffic hindrance primarily – High impact but not as widespread as the impact of temperature – Impactful events are not as predictable at longer range time scales © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
7.
Weather and Consumers •
Hurricanes – Traffic and demand generator – Biggest and most widespread impact the result of hurricane predictions vice landfall – Media coverage ahead of storms results in a net plus for Home Centers (HD/ LOW), Mass (WMT), and grocers; results in a net negative for mall-based retailers © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
8.
Weather Impact on
March Sales • Example of the influence of temperature on retail sales • Old Navy same store sales change compared to the change in a nationally weighted Cooling Degree Index (weather source: NOAA) • Increased cooling demand correlates to increased demand for spring apparel – ~40% correlation © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
9.
Weather Impact on
April Sales • Example of the influence of temperature on retail sales in April • National temperature change against the average comp store sales of a basket of 53 retailers (source: Global Hunter Securities and NOAA) © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
10.
Contact Information Paul
Walsh, Managing Principal – Email: Paul.Walsh@g2weather.com – Direct: +1.917.463.4238 – Mobile: +1.610.246.0623 © Copyright 2009 All Rights Reserved, G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
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