Paulo Caroli presentation on the target-variance model. Beyond Kanban.

1. Don’t limit yourself!
Kanban and beyond
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli

2. Agenda
• Workflow
• Card Wall
• Important parameters
• Kanban mechanics
• Replenishment
• Going Beyond
• Q&A

4. Workflow

5. A workflow is a sequence of
steps and activities of work
performed by a person or a team
to achieve a specific goal.

6. Final
Stage
Stage 1 Stage 2 Goal
N
(Done)

7. Workflow examples

11. Visible workflow

12. We have been using
Card Walls for a long time…

19. The workflow stages

20. The workflow stages
the work

21. “these card walls are not inherently
kanban systems. They are merely
visual control systems. They allow
teams to visually observe work-in-
progress and to self-organize, assign
their own tasks, and move work
from a backlog to complete”

22. David has a point…

24. Parameters from
a simple card wall

25. To Do Doing Done
12
10 1
John
7
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy

26. To Do Doing Done
12
10 1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy

27. To Do Doing Done
Day 6
Day 1 12 10
10 10
John 1
7 Lead Time
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy

28. To Do Doing Done
Throughput
12
10 1
John Day 1
7
Day 2 5
4
9 Suzy
21 Day 3 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy

29. Kanban mechanics

30. Doing
To Do Done
12
10 1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy

31. Doing
To Do (Limit) Done
12
10 1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy

32. Doing
To Do (Limit) Done
12
10 Demand Throughput
1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy

33. Doing
To Do (Limit) Done
12
10 Demand Throughput
1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul
17
5 Amy
Balance demand against throughput

34. Doing
To Do (Limit) Done
12
10 1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul Lead Time
17
5 Amy

35. Doing
To Do (Limit) Done
12
10 1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul Lead Time
17
5 Amy
increased lead time => poorer quality

36. Doing
To Do (Limit) Done
12
10 1
John
7 WIP
5
4
9 Suzy
21 18
31
Paul Lead Time
17
5 Amy
# WIP is proportional to average lead time

37. Before and After
example

38. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

39. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

40. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
10 12
John Suzy 5 1
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

41. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
10 12
John Suzy 5 1
7 Dan
4
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
9
17

42. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
10 12
John Suzy 5 1
7 Dan
4
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
9
17

43. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
12
John Suzy 5 1
7 Dan
4
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
9
17
10

44. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
21 12
John Suzy 5 1
7 Dan
4
18
Paul Amy 31
5
9
17
10

45. Any problem?

46. In Dev In QC Ready for
Backlog Q
Sign off
21 12
John Suzy 5 1
7 Dan
4
18
Paul Amy 31
5
9
17
10

47. Limit

48. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

49. Pull System, Queue and Limits

50. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

51. 80% done on Card #9

52. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

53. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Amy Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

54. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Amy Dan
4
9
18
Paul 31
21
5
17

55. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Amy Dan
5
4
9
18
Paul 31
21
5
17

56. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
7 Amy Dan
5
4
9
18
Paul 31
21
5
17

57. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 7 1
7 Amy Dan
5
4
9
18
Paul 31
21
5
17

58. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 7 1
Amy Dan
5
4
9
18
Paul 31
21
5
17

59. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 7 1
Amy Dan
5
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

60. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 7 1
Dan
5
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

61. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 7 1
9 Dan
5
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

62. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 7 1
9 Dan
5
4
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

63. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 7 1
9 Dan
5
4
10
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

64. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
John Suzy 7 1
9 Dan
5
4
10
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

65. Don’t limit yourself

66. Replenishment

68. Replenishment is driven by actual
consumption, not sales forecasts

69. I have seen this before…

70. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

71. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

72. Eggplant at the wall

73. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

74. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

75. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

76. Rethinking nomenclature…

77. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy 31
21
5
17

78. Target instead of Limit

79. “Yet another choice would be to
… adopt a policy of exceeding
the WIP limit when a burst of
production text changes arrives...
This was the choice made in the
real example ...”

80. Should we accept variance?

81. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

82. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

83. “For example, if we had ten
people and anticipated two
people per item, the WIP limit
might be five plus a few more to
smooth the impact of a
blockage. Perhaps eight (five plus
three) would be the right limit in
such circumstances.”

84. … so we are already dealing with
variance for upper limit…

85. … but, what about
a variance for less?
(to avoid starvation)

86. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

87. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

88. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
17

89. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(2) (2) (1) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
Dan
4
9
18
Paul Amy
21
5
5
17

90. Variance to cope with SW
development empirical nature

91. “For example, if we had ten
people and anticipated two
people per item, the WIP limit
might be five plus a few more to
smooth the impact of a
blockage. Perhaps eight (five plus
three) would be the right limit in
such circumstances.”

92. Make it visible!

93. [5,3] instead of (8)

94. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
(4) (2) (2) Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4 9
Paul Amy 18
5
31
21 Tom
12
5 Rob Ben
17
12
Mar
Sue
y

95. Backlog In Dev Q In QC Ready for
[4,2] [4,2] [2,1] [2,1] Sign off
12
10 John Suzy 1
5
7 Dan
4 9
Paul Amy 18
5
31
21 Tom
12
5 Rob Ben
17
12
Mar
Sue
y

96. Thank you!
Questions?
Don’t limit yourself!
Paulo Caroli Agile Coach
pcaroli@thoughtworks.com
Twitter: @paulocaroli