This document discusses trends related to the future, including: 1. Demographic changes like population aging, migration, and shifts will impact sustainability of pension systems, workforce capabilities, and healthcare systems. 2. Urban trends involving new technologies, citizen participation, transportation, and sustainability will transform cities in ways that are organic and collaborative. 3. Portugal faces specific challenges from its aging population and economic reliance on services, requiring a transition to a more innovative, international hub economy.

1. MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE
Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho

2. Wait Ο
Respond/React Ο
Predict Ο
Anticipate Ο
Explore Ο
Imagine Ο
Design / Create Ο
Decide Ο
Act Ο
Other Ο
WHAT’S THE USE OF THE FUTURE?

3. Making Decisions in Turbulent and
Uncertain Environments

4. 4
“The Long View”

5. 5
Peripheral Vision

6. 6Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
Sense Making

7. 7Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.

8. 8
Multiple Perspectives

9. 9
Global & Systemic
View
System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.

10. 10
Creativity
and
Imagination
IDEO (from Wired)

11. 11
MEGATRENDS

12. 12
Megatrends
Global Forces
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
URBANISATION
DIGITAL LIFESTYLE
GLOBALISATION 2 . 0
CULTURAL DIVERSITY
NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER
UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY
HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE
AND CONVERGING
GROWING THREATS TO
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
ENERGY AND RESOURCE
REVERSAL
CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A
NEW STAGE
WOMEN ON THE RISE
WATER CHALLENGES

13. 13
TRENDS

14. www.trendwatching.com

15. Twelve Potentially Disruptive Technologies
Fonte: MGI.

16. Weak Signals

17. 17
Thinking the
Unthinkable
Wildcards

18. 18
UNCERTAINTY

19. TrendTaylo rs
Scanning and Exploring Change

20. Scanning and Exploring Change

21. Scanning and Exploring Change

22. Scanning and Exploring Change

23. DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
• Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries
• Growing Population and baby boom in some Developing Countries
• Increasing migration streams
• Demographic shifts

24. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
WORLD

25. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
EUROPE

26. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
SOUTH EUROPE

27. 1. General Population:
Sustainability of the Pensions
System.
2. Active Population:
Capability to anticipate and lead
the new technological waves.
3. Older Population (+80):
Strong pressure on the
healthcare system (financial and
human resources)
4. …
1
2
3
PORTUGAL - A TRIPLE AGEING

28. PORTUGAL
ECONOMIC
PROFILE

29. PORTUGAL – ECONOMIC PROFILE
(Mainly Public Offer/Services)
(External demand)
Globalization
Budgetary Pressure
Non-market services
Goods and services little
marketable internationally
(Targeted to Domestic Demand)
Goods and services that are the subject of
intense International Trade / Competition
• More “weight “
• Greater diversity
• More Knowledge and Innovation
Services Vs. Industries
• More Competition
• Lower “Rents”
• Stronger link to the Economy and
International Competition
Portugal as an INTERNACIONAL
HUB for MNCs, SMEs and Startups
+
Global Activities and Functions
(Logistics, air and maritime
transport, “Space”, …)

30. CITIES
•MULTIPLE TIME HORIZONS
•THINK –ACT
•ORGANIC
•ECOSYSTEMS
•MELTING POT FOR INNOVATION
•LABS

32. URBAN TRENDS
3-D PRINTER + PERSONAL
MANUFACTURING
(Fab Lab)
ACTIVIST CITIZEN
(Participatory Budget; Wi Fi; ..))
GENTRIFICATION
CITY APPS/URBAN DATA
(Open Data; Lisbon Big Apps; SDK)
…
NATURE OF WORK
(Coworking; Incubation;
Acceleration - ITC/Web/…)
HACKING THE CITY
(Fab Lab; Alt Lab)
INTUITION
COLLABORATIVE URBAN
MAPPING
(New startups exploring this)
CROWDSOURCING
CROWDFUNDING
(Lisbon Crowdfunding Platform)
Platform)…
HAPPY CITY
MAKER MOVEMENT
(Fab Lab; Printoo; City as the “Place”
of the Internet of Things)
BOTTOM-UP URBAN
ENGAGMENT
(Mouraria; …)
CUSTOMIZATION + ON
DEMAND SERVICES
HYBRIDITY
NEW MOBIITY SOLUTIONS
(EVs; soft …)
AGEING +
INTERGENERATIONAL
INTERACTION
(Mentoring; Envlhecimento)
DATA VISUALIZATION
(Using Big Data  Trends/Insights)
DEPARTMENT OF LISTENING
(Participatory Budget)
DESIGN BARRIERS FOOD DISTRIBUTION
OPEN-SOURCE
(Open Data; OP)
PARTICIPATORY URBANISM
(OP  Startup Lisboa)
WEARABLESNON-ICONIC ARCHITECTURE
(Urban/Street Art; LX Factory;
Desterro; Trienal no Palácio; …)
RESPONSIVE
INFRASTRUCTURE
RETROFITTING
INFRASTRUCTURE
SMART CITY / SENSORS/
(Smart City Projects)
RAPID PROTOTYPING
(Fab Lab)
TEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE
(Containers; Parks; …)
ENERGY STORAGE + SMART
GRIDS
(SOLAR CITY)
AUGENTED REALITY (AR)
APPS
SHARE CULTURE / SHARE
ECONOMY
STARTUPS ECOSYSTEMS IN A
FAST CHANGING PACE
(Lisbon Startup Ecosystem)
SUSTAINABILITY
(Mobility; Buildings;
SOLAR CITY…)
NEW USES FOR BUILDINGS
(LX Factory; Village Underground;
Desterro; Fab Lab Forn Tijolo; Mercado
Ribeira; Central Station; Startup Lisboa; …)
BIG DATA
CLOUD COMPUTING

33. 33
Crowdfunding
Lisboa

35. Thank You
paulo.s.carvalho@cm-lisboa.pt