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2012 Solar Leadership Summit

Industry tipping points – Where do we go from here?




Doug Payne
Co-founder / Executive Director
March 7th, 8th 2012
Day 1
                                      Summit at-a-glance
                                                                                  Day 2
      WHAT solutions WILL move the U.S.
                                                               When, where, and how to drive adoption <2015?
    residential / commercial markets faster?

                 Federal Energy                                                           Inside the #’s - Top U.S.
                 Regulatory Commission                                                    markets poised for parity


                                                           •       How do we execute and drive adoption?
                 Steps to a sustainable
                 solar future                                                                          Installation
                                                                      Finance         Permitting
                                                                                                         I, II, III

                                                                    Performance      Interconnect      Workforce



    Conversations at the intersection of Energy,
         Politics, States, and Consumers

                                          Installation
       Finance          Permitting
                                            I, II, III
                                                                      Scaling Capital to Scale an industry
     Performance       Interconnect       Workforce

•   Top priority issues, tools and markets?
•   What standards or best practices are ready to scale?
•   How will they reduce soft costs?                                             Full Summit Report
•   Which local markets are the best tipping points?                         “Executive Situation Desk”
•   What’s missing?
                                                               •    How do we deploy best practices faster to support a
             Day 1 report out – “Town Hall Forum”                   subsidy-free / grid-parity distributed PV marketplace?
U.S. Solar Market Growth Through 2015
• 2012 – We face multiple challenges with fragmented solution paths

                                                   PV Installations Forecast
                    7000

                    6000
                                              Market Uncertainty
                    5000                   •1603 & Solyndra halos
                                                     •Trade dispute
                                          •Election year POLITICS
 Megawatts (MWdc)




                    4000
                                            •Confused Consumers
                    3000                   •Fractured marketplace

                    2000

                    1000

                      0
                           2005   2006   2007     2008     2009     2010      2011    2012e   2013e   2014e   2015e

 SEIA/GTM Research: Q3 2011 Solar Market Insight
                                                            Year        Q1


                                            Solar3.0 / Summit Goal        Inject stability & Market Direction
                                                •Efficient local markets through standards, best practices
                                         •Provide lower prices and more predictable transactions to consumers

                                         SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
Average Installed System Costs
Continue to Decline




     SEIA/GTM Research: Q3 2011 Solar Market Insight




                                                                  2012 Summit / Solar3.0
                                                                         Tipping Points

                         SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
Tipping point - The event of a
previously rare phenomenon becoming
rapidly and dramatically more common

- Wikipedia
What is “Main St. USA” waiting for?
•   Residential PV break-even                                      •     Residential PV break-even
    installed price in 2008 assuming                                     installed price in 2015 assuming
    full retail net metering, state                                      full retail net metering and 30%
    incentives and 30% ITC.                                              ITC.




      Source: Denholm, Margolis, Ong, Roberts “Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States:
      Key Drivers and Sensitivities” NREL 12/2009




                                   SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
The people who are crazy enough to
think they can change the world are the
ones who do.
- Apple’s “Think Different” commercial, 1997




       How will                  “Go Solar”?
 - SolarTech’s “4th Solar Leadership Summit”, 2012
The good old “S-curve”

                               Addressable U.S. Rooftop Market for
            142                     Residential Customers(1)

            250,000                                                                                                 35
                                                                                                                    30
            200,000                                                       MW Addressable for
                                                                          Residential Rooftop                       25
MegaWatts




                                             $27M to                      # of States with
            150,000                                                                                                 20




                                                                                                                            States
                                             achieve                      Addressable Demand

            100,000                           scale                                                                 15
                                                                                                                    10
             50,000
                                                                                                                    5
                  0                                                                                                 0




                         2012                 2011               2010              2009                  2008
                                         Total System Price / Watt
                         (1) The residential market sizing by ThinkEquity assumes that solar facilities are purchased by
                             individual homeowners. We have modified the analysis to reflect additional federal subsidies
                             worth $0.50/W from which commercial owners such as SunRun benefit.
                             Source: ThinkEquity “Think Greentech” Feb 2010

                                SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
“Solar3.0” - A National Platform for Process Innovation

                                              Program Overview
                                              1000+ Communities
         Phase 1                              90+ Utilities, 500+ PV Installation
      Needs Analyses                          Companies
                                              1600 electrical and code officials trained
                 Phase 2                      30,000 industry stakeholders
               Developmen                     8 state target, organic adoption beyond
                    t         Phase 3
                            Implementati
                                 on
                                                                        Solar 3.0 Partners:




                                                     Phase 4
                                                   Market Impact


Non-Hdwr BOS 2012       2013       2014
costs as % of
                <30%   <20%       <10%
Installed Costs




                            SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
A Market Based approach to accelerate grid parity
                  for 46,016,325 people


    Solar 3.0
2012 Target States
Full Summit Report
               “Executive Situation Desk”
     Finance             Permitting     Installation I, II, III

   Performance          Interconnect        Workforce


•Top priority issues, tools and markets?
•How do we deploy best practices faster to support a subsidy-free
/ grid-parity distributed PV marketplace?
•What standards or best practices are ready to scale?
•How will they reduce soft costs?
•Which local markets are the best tipping points?
•What’s missing?




Wade Crowfoot - Deputy Director, Governor’s Office of Planning & Research
Scott Clavenna - CEO, Greentech Media
Nat Kreamer – CEO, Clean Power Finance
Danny Kennedy – President & Founder, Sungevity
Ned Harvey - COO, Rocky Mountain Institute
Jurgen Krehnke – President & GM, SMA North America
Summit Report / Recommendations                                                            Finance
Solution Paths                                        Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it                        • Highest priority markets
     –   Existing tax equity sources are trained           •   C&I market
     –   Debt financing on utility scale markets is        •   Residential market
         fairly efficient
                                                      •   Keys to adoption
     –   Lending in residential space doing well
                                                           •   Standardize: Standardize criteria and
•   Market gaps                                                rating methodology for assessing credit
     –   Participation gap: Less than 5% of                    risk in Solar assets
         banks lending to solar plants                     •   Simplify & Amplify: Simplify message to
     –   Tax equity: Limited resource (2 own                   educate all parties; Take time to become
         80%) & lack of transparency                           credible advocate with regulators and
     –   C&I market: In no-mans land and hence                 educate utility commissioners
         scalability an issue                              •   Train: Train banks and rating agencies in
                                                               the space and increase participation from
•   Top priorities                                             broader market
     –   Close participation gap in banks;
         Create Green bank
                                                  •       What are the risks?
     –   Expand scope of tax equity participation          •   Policy risk: ITC expiring in 2016;Low
                                                               incentive for new banks to get into tax
     –   Policy to stimulate C&I market (Example:              equity market;
         REIT, Commercial PACE)
                                                           •   Net-metering: 5% cap issue
•   Impact on soft cost reduction                          •   Scalability risk: Volume needs to
     –   Cost of capital: 200-400 bps premium                  grow to attract more banks
         on solar assets (700 bps for tax equity)
Summit Report / Recommendations                                                       Performance
Solution Paths                                      Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it                      • Highest priority markets
     –   O&M risk manageable, but overlooked             •   C&I market
•   Market gaps                                          •   California, Texas and New Jersey
     –   Transparency: Lack of transparent          •   Keys to adoption
         data in market                                  •   Performance data: Trusted 3rd party
     –   Standardization: Need standardized                  needs to help create standards to build
         methods for assessing data to reduce                transparent performance data from power
         solar resource risk; Takes long time to             plants; Learn from other markets like
         develop standards                                   Germany and/or require monitoring
     –   Bankability: High degree of subjectivity        •   Standardization: Standardization of
         in defining “bankable” product                      Independent Engineer evaluations;
                                                             Standardization of communication and
•   Top priorities                                           monitoring methods
     –   Open access to performance data
                                                         •   Securitization: Transparency needed to
     –   Need to create “best practices” for                 eliminate technology risk and enable
         assessing performance of plants                     securitization of the market
     –   Involve Independent Engineers to help
         standardize definition on bankability
                                                    •   What are the risks?
                                                         •   Policy risk: ITC uncertainty makes
•   Impact on soft cost reduction                            financing long term projects more difficult
     –   $/W impact: Variation in energy yield           •   Perceived risk : Perceived risk higher
         leads to increase in system cost (10%               than the actual risk of projects. We may
         over-prediction 10% increase in cost)               be leaving money on the table
Summit Report / Recommendations                              Installation I,II, III
Solution Paths                          Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it          • Highest priority markets
    – A NEC and I Codes                    •   Solar America cities
    – B Training                           •   Common priority markets:
    – C German methods                          • Residential
• Market gaps                              •   Unique priority markets:
                                               Commercial rooftop
    – “Building code requirements” is
      known, must go faster             • Keys to adoption
    – ‘Lack of ASTM Standard’ is           •   A Public awareness
      known, little is being done          •   B Use ASTM for systems standard
    – ‘Systems Approach” is over the       •   C Industry collaboration &
      horizon                                  leadership
• Top priorities
    – A Education & public awareness
                                        • What are the risks?
    – B Plug-n-Play systems
                                           •   A Roof failures
    – C Certification (components &
                                           •   B Bad PR
      installers)
                                           •   C Bad/restricted policy
• Impact on soft cost reduction
    – $0.50 / W, cost of capital (%)
Summit Report / Recommendations                                         Workforce

Solution Paths                           Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it           • Highest priority markets
    – Industry Driven Workforce             •   Follow sales and economic
      Collaboratives                            demographic/PV demand statistics
    – State & Federal Certified             •   Residential market is leading now
      Programs (eg. Apprenticeships)
    – Energy Faculty Forum               • Keys to adoption
• Market gaps                               •   Regional Industry-Driven
    – Need for training in Finance and          Partnerships
      Sales for Energy Professionals
    – Miniature/Stackable Credentials
                                         • What are the risks?
    – Interdisciplinary Training
                                            •   Profitability of “Best Practices” (can
• Top priorities                                best practices sustain themselves?)
    – Integrate EE and PV/RE into
      Training Curricula
                                         • Impact on soft cost reduction
    – Standardize Learning Objectives
                                            •   Quantify Value of Training to
      and Curricula
                                                Employers
    – Integrate Work Experience- OJT
      -Apprenticeships
Summit Report / Recommendations                                        Permitting

Solution Paths                              Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it              • Highest priority markets
    – Standardization in pockets               •   West
    – Certification—drive adoption             •   CA, AZ, MA, NJ
    – Streamlining—SolarABCS, etc.             •   Identify key cities across U.S.
• Market gaps
    – Known (See Solar3.0 / SunShot)        • Keys to adoption
• Top priorities                               •   Survey AHJs to gauge training
    –   Training for Permitting Officials          requirements
    –   Permit Training for Installers         •   Survey Industry to identify key
    –   Development of a Toolbox                   factors to expanding in AHJs
    –   Third Party options as “battery        •   Utilize DOE leverage to
        backup”                                    demonstrate viability of options
                                                   and drive adoption
• Impact on soft cost reduction                •   Utilize technology to expedite
    – $.50 - $1.00 / W, cost of capital            and streamline permitting
      (10-25%)
                                            • What are the risks?
                                               •   Pushback from jurisdictions
                                               •   Success
Summit Report / Recommendations                                                 Interconnect

Solution Paths                                 Execution & Adoption
•   Working well – Just scale it               •  Highest priority markets
     – IREC Freeing the grid                       •    Solar 3.0 top 100 cities
     – IREC interconnection and net                •     Regional (SMUD, LADWP, PG&E, SCE)
         metering best practices guideline     •  Keys to adoption
     – Online application SDGE and FLP             •    Communication - not just to utilities but
•   Market gaps                                         to PUCs, munis’ and elected officials
     – Tariff vs. Process                               and/or sustainability rep
     – Utilities who have benefited using          •    Buy-In
         existing solutions vs. those who          •    Education - importance of doing it
         have not                                       correctly, benefits of doing it correctly
•   Top priorities                                 •    Accountability & Transparency
     – Online application with Software        •  What are the risks?
         validation & transparency                 •    Success
     – Educating applicants, identify people       •    Fallout from focus group (volunteers).
         who need help                                  Must have incentive
     – Marketing campaign to PUCs and              •    Time is the enemy – need an achievable
         Munis demonstrating existing                   time line to achieve success
         solutions via webinars
•   Impact on soft cost reduction
     – Cycle time for on-line application
         submittals is <5 days, txn costs?

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2012 U.S. solar market soft-cost reduction roadmap

  • 1. 2012 Solar Leadership Summit Industry tipping points – Where do we go from here? Doug Payne Co-founder / Executive Director March 7th, 8th 2012
  • 2. Day 1 Summit at-a-glance Day 2 WHAT solutions WILL move the U.S. When, where, and how to drive adoption <2015? residential / commercial markets faster? Federal Energy Inside the #’s - Top U.S. Regulatory Commission markets poised for parity • How do we execute and drive adoption? Steps to a sustainable solar future Installation Finance Permitting I, II, III Performance Interconnect Workforce Conversations at the intersection of Energy, Politics, States, and Consumers Installation Finance Permitting I, II, III Scaling Capital to Scale an industry Performance Interconnect Workforce • Top priority issues, tools and markets? • What standards or best practices are ready to scale? • How will they reduce soft costs? Full Summit Report • Which local markets are the best tipping points? “Executive Situation Desk” • What’s missing? • How do we deploy best practices faster to support a Day 1 report out – “Town Hall Forum” subsidy-free / grid-parity distributed PV marketplace?
  • 3. U.S. Solar Market Growth Through 2015 • 2012 – We face multiple challenges with fragmented solution paths PV Installations Forecast 7000 6000 Market Uncertainty 5000 •1603 & Solyndra halos •Trade dispute •Election year POLITICS Megawatts (MWdc) 4000 •Confused Consumers 3000 •Fractured marketplace 2000 1000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e SEIA/GTM Research: Q3 2011 Solar Market Insight Year Q1 Solar3.0 / Summit Goal Inject stability & Market Direction •Efficient local markets through standards, best practices •Provide lower prices and more predictable transactions to consumers SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
  • 4. Average Installed System Costs Continue to Decline SEIA/GTM Research: Q3 2011 Solar Market Insight 2012 Summit / Solar3.0 Tipping Points SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
  • 5. Tipping point - The event of a previously rare phenomenon becoming rapidly and dramatically more common - Wikipedia
  • 6. What is “Main St. USA” waiting for? • Residential PV break-even • Residential PV break-even installed price in 2008 assuming installed price in 2015 assuming full retail net metering, state full retail net metering and 30% incentives and 30% ITC. ITC. Source: Denholm, Margolis, Ong, Roberts “Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States: Key Drivers and Sensitivities” NREL 12/2009 SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
  • 7. The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do. - Apple’s “Think Different” commercial, 1997 How will “Go Solar”? - SolarTech’s “4th Solar Leadership Summit”, 2012
  • 8. The good old “S-curve” Addressable U.S. Rooftop Market for 142 Residential Customers(1) 250,000 35 30 200,000 MW Addressable for Residential Rooftop 25 MegaWatts $27M to # of States with 150,000 20 States achieve Addressable Demand 100,000 scale 15 10 50,000 5 0 0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Total System Price / Watt (1) The residential market sizing by ThinkEquity assumes that solar facilities are purchased by individual homeowners. We have modified the analysis to reflect additional federal subsidies worth $0.50/W from which commercial owners such as SunRun benefit. Source: ThinkEquity “Think Greentech” Feb 2010 SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
  • 9. “Solar3.0” - A National Platform for Process Innovation Program Overview 1000+ Communities Phase 1 90+ Utilities, 500+ PV Installation Needs Analyses Companies 1600 electrical and code officials trained Phase 2 30,000 industry stakeholders Developmen 8 state target, organic adoption beyond t Phase 3 Implementati on Solar 3.0 Partners: Phase 4 Market Impact Non-Hdwr BOS 2012 2013 2014 costs as % of <30% <20% <10% Installed Costs SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
  • 10. A Market Based approach to accelerate grid parity for 46,016,325 people Solar 3.0 2012 Target States
  • 11. Full Summit Report “Executive Situation Desk” Finance Permitting Installation I, II, III Performance Interconnect Workforce •Top priority issues, tools and markets? •How do we deploy best practices faster to support a subsidy-free / grid-parity distributed PV marketplace? •What standards or best practices are ready to scale? •How will they reduce soft costs? •Which local markets are the best tipping points? •What’s missing? Wade Crowfoot - Deputy Director, Governor’s Office of Planning & Research Scott Clavenna - CEO, Greentech Media Nat Kreamer – CEO, Clean Power Finance Danny Kennedy – President & Founder, Sungevity Ned Harvey - COO, Rocky Mountain Institute Jurgen Krehnke – President & GM, SMA North America
  • 12. Summit Report / Recommendations Finance Solution Paths Execution & Adoption • Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets – Existing tax equity sources are trained • C&I market – Debt financing on utility scale markets is • Residential market fairly efficient • Keys to adoption – Lending in residential space doing well • Standardize: Standardize criteria and • Market gaps rating methodology for assessing credit – Participation gap: Less than 5% of risk in Solar assets banks lending to solar plants • Simplify & Amplify: Simplify message to – Tax equity: Limited resource (2 own educate all parties; Take time to become 80%) & lack of transparency credible advocate with regulators and – C&I market: In no-mans land and hence educate utility commissioners scalability an issue • Train: Train banks and rating agencies in the space and increase participation from • Top priorities broader market – Close participation gap in banks; Create Green bank • What are the risks? – Expand scope of tax equity participation • Policy risk: ITC expiring in 2016;Low incentive for new banks to get into tax – Policy to stimulate C&I market (Example: equity market; REIT, Commercial PACE) • Net-metering: 5% cap issue • Impact on soft cost reduction • Scalability risk: Volume needs to – Cost of capital: 200-400 bps premium grow to attract more banks on solar assets (700 bps for tax equity)
  • 13. Summit Report / Recommendations Performance Solution Paths Execution & Adoption • Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets – O&M risk manageable, but overlooked • C&I market • Market gaps • California, Texas and New Jersey – Transparency: Lack of transparent • Keys to adoption data in market • Performance data: Trusted 3rd party – Standardization: Need standardized needs to help create standards to build methods for assessing data to reduce transparent performance data from power solar resource risk; Takes long time to plants; Learn from other markets like develop standards Germany and/or require monitoring – Bankability: High degree of subjectivity • Standardization: Standardization of in defining “bankable” product Independent Engineer evaluations; Standardization of communication and • Top priorities monitoring methods – Open access to performance data • Securitization: Transparency needed to – Need to create “best practices” for eliminate technology risk and enable assessing performance of plants securitization of the market – Involve Independent Engineers to help standardize definition on bankability • What are the risks? • Policy risk: ITC uncertainty makes • Impact on soft cost reduction financing long term projects more difficult – $/W impact: Variation in energy yield • Perceived risk : Perceived risk higher leads to increase in system cost (10% than the actual risk of projects. We may over-prediction 10% increase in cost) be leaving money on the table
  • 14. Summit Report / Recommendations Installation I,II, III Solution Paths Execution & Adoption • Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets – A NEC and I Codes • Solar America cities – B Training • Common priority markets: – C German methods • Residential • Market gaps • Unique priority markets: Commercial rooftop – “Building code requirements” is known, must go faster • Keys to adoption – ‘Lack of ASTM Standard’ is • A Public awareness known, little is being done • B Use ASTM for systems standard – ‘Systems Approach” is over the • C Industry collaboration & horizon leadership • Top priorities – A Education & public awareness • What are the risks? – B Plug-n-Play systems • A Roof failures – C Certification (components & • B Bad PR installers) • C Bad/restricted policy • Impact on soft cost reduction – $0.50 / W, cost of capital (%)
  • 15. Summit Report / Recommendations Workforce Solution Paths Execution & Adoption • Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets – Industry Driven Workforce • Follow sales and economic Collaboratives demographic/PV demand statistics – State & Federal Certified • Residential market is leading now Programs (eg. Apprenticeships) – Energy Faculty Forum • Keys to adoption • Market gaps • Regional Industry-Driven – Need for training in Finance and Partnerships Sales for Energy Professionals – Miniature/Stackable Credentials • What are the risks? – Interdisciplinary Training • Profitability of “Best Practices” (can • Top priorities best practices sustain themselves?) – Integrate EE and PV/RE into Training Curricula • Impact on soft cost reduction – Standardize Learning Objectives • Quantify Value of Training to and Curricula Employers – Integrate Work Experience- OJT -Apprenticeships
  • 16. Summit Report / Recommendations Permitting Solution Paths Execution & Adoption • Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets – Standardization in pockets • West – Certification—drive adoption • CA, AZ, MA, NJ – Streamlining—SolarABCS, etc. • Identify key cities across U.S. • Market gaps – Known (See Solar3.0 / SunShot) • Keys to adoption • Top priorities • Survey AHJs to gauge training – Training for Permitting Officials requirements – Permit Training for Installers • Survey Industry to identify key – Development of a Toolbox factors to expanding in AHJs – Third Party options as “battery • Utilize DOE leverage to backup” demonstrate viability of options and drive adoption • Impact on soft cost reduction • Utilize technology to expedite – $.50 - $1.00 / W, cost of capital and streamline permitting (10-25%) • What are the risks? • Pushback from jurisdictions • Success
  • 17. Summit Report / Recommendations Interconnect Solution Paths Execution & Adoption • Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets – IREC Freeing the grid • Solar 3.0 top 100 cities – IREC interconnection and net • Regional (SMUD, LADWP, PG&E, SCE) metering best practices guideline • Keys to adoption – Online application SDGE and FLP • Communication - not just to utilities but • Market gaps to PUCs, munis’ and elected officials – Tariff vs. Process and/or sustainability rep – Utilities who have benefited using • Buy-In existing solutions vs. those who • Education - importance of doing it have not correctly, benefits of doing it correctly • Top priorities • Accountability & Transparency – Online application with Software • What are the risks? validation & transparency • Success – Educating applicants, identify people • Fallout from focus group (volunteers). who need help Must have incentive – Marketing campaign to PUCs and • Time is the enemy – need an achievable Munis demonstrating existing time line to achieve success solutions via webinars • Impact on soft cost reduction – Cycle time for on-line application submittals is <5 days, txn costs?