SolarTech is pleased to share the preliminary results of the 2012 Solar Leadership Summit - A framework aimed at reducing transaction costs for residential and commercial PV across the U.S.
Entrepreneurship Forum: Dr. Jay Taneja, Senior Research Scientist at IBM Rese...
2012 U.S. solar market soft-cost reduction roadmap
1. 2012 Solar Leadership Summit
Industry tipping points – Where do we go from here?
Doug Payne
Co-founder / Executive Director
March 7th, 8th 2012
2. Day 1
Summit at-a-glance
Day 2
WHAT solutions WILL move the U.S.
When, where, and how to drive adoption <2015?
residential / commercial markets faster?
Federal Energy Inside the #’s - Top U.S.
Regulatory Commission markets poised for parity
• How do we execute and drive adoption?
Steps to a sustainable
solar future Installation
Finance Permitting
I, II, III
Performance Interconnect Workforce
Conversations at the intersection of Energy,
Politics, States, and Consumers
Installation
Finance Permitting
I, II, III
Scaling Capital to Scale an industry
Performance Interconnect Workforce
• Top priority issues, tools and markets?
• What standards or best practices are ready to scale?
• How will they reduce soft costs? Full Summit Report
• Which local markets are the best tipping points? “Executive Situation Desk”
• What’s missing?
• How do we deploy best practices faster to support a
Day 1 report out – “Town Hall Forum” subsidy-free / grid-parity distributed PV marketplace?
3. U.S. Solar Market Growth Through 2015
• 2012 – We face multiple challenges with fragmented solution paths
PV Installations Forecast
7000
6000
Market Uncertainty
5000 •1603 & Solyndra halos
•Trade dispute
•Election year POLITICS
Megawatts (MWdc)
4000
•Confused Consumers
3000 •Fractured marketplace
2000
1000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e
SEIA/GTM Research: Q3 2011 Solar Market Insight
Year Q1
Solar3.0 / Summit Goal Inject stability & Market Direction
•Efficient local markets through standards, best practices
•Provide lower prices and more predictable transactions to consumers
SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
4. Average Installed System Costs
Continue to Decline
SEIA/GTM Research: Q3 2011 Solar Market Insight
2012 Summit / Solar3.0
Tipping Points
SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
5. Tipping point - The event of a
previously rare phenomenon becoming
rapidly and dramatically more common
- Wikipedia
6. What is “Main St. USA” waiting for?
• Residential PV break-even • Residential PV break-even
installed price in 2008 assuming installed price in 2015 assuming
full retail net metering, state full retail net metering and 30%
incentives and 30% ITC. ITC.
Source: Denholm, Margolis, Ong, Roberts “Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States:
Key Drivers and Sensitivities” NREL 12/2009
SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
7. The people who are crazy enough to
think they can change the world are the
ones who do.
- Apple’s “Think Different” commercial, 1997
How will “Go Solar”?
- SolarTech’s “4th Solar Leadership Summit”, 2012
8. The good old “S-curve”
Addressable U.S. Rooftop Market for
142 Residential Customers(1)
250,000 35
30
200,000 MW Addressable for
Residential Rooftop 25
MegaWatts
$27M to # of States with
150,000 20
States
achieve Addressable Demand
100,000 scale 15
10
50,000
5
0 0
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
Total System Price / Watt
(1) The residential market sizing by ThinkEquity assumes that solar facilities are purchased by
individual homeowners. We have modified the analysis to reflect additional federal subsidies
worth $0.50/W from which commercial owners such as SunRun benefit.
Source: ThinkEquity “Think Greentech” Feb 2010
SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
9. “Solar3.0” - A National Platform for Process Innovation
Program Overview
1000+ Communities
Phase 1 90+ Utilities, 500+ PV Installation
Needs Analyses Companies
1600 electrical and code officials trained
Phase 2 30,000 industry stakeholders
Developmen 8 state target, organic adoption beyond
t Phase 3
Implementati
on
Solar 3.0 Partners:
Phase 4
Market Impact
Non-Hdwr BOS 2012 2013 2014
costs as % of
<30% <20% <10%
Installed Costs
SolarTech Copyright 2012 - All rights reserved
10. A Market Based approach to accelerate grid parity
for 46,016,325 people
Solar 3.0
2012 Target States
11. Full Summit Report
“Executive Situation Desk”
Finance Permitting Installation I, II, III
Performance Interconnect Workforce
•Top priority issues, tools and markets?
•How do we deploy best practices faster to support a subsidy-free
/ grid-parity distributed PV marketplace?
•What standards or best practices are ready to scale?
•How will they reduce soft costs?
•Which local markets are the best tipping points?
•What’s missing?
Wade Crowfoot - Deputy Director, Governor’s Office of Planning & Research
Scott Clavenna - CEO, Greentech Media
Nat Kreamer – CEO, Clean Power Finance
Danny Kennedy – President & Founder, Sungevity
Ned Harvey - COO, Rocky Mountain Institute
Jurgen Krehnke – President & GM, SMA North America
12. Summit Report / Recommendations Finance
Solution Paths Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets
– Existing tax equity sources are trained • C&I market
– Debt financing on utility scale markets is • Residential market
fairly efficient
• Keys to adoption
– Lending in residential space doing well
• Standardize: Standardize criteria and
• Market gaps rating methodology for assessing credit
– Participation gap: Less than 5% of risk in Solar assets
banks lending to solar plants • Simplify & Amplify: Simplify message to
– Tax equity: Limited resource (2 own educate all parties; Take time to become
80%) & lack of transparency credible advocate with regulators and
– C&I market: In no-mans land and hence educate utility commissioners
scalability an issue • Train: Train banks and rating agencies in
the space and increase participation from
• Top priorities broader market
– Close participation gap in banks;
Create Green bank
• What are the risks?
– Expand scope of tax equity participation • Policy risk: ITC expiring in 2016;Low
incentive for new banks to get into tax
– Policy to stimulate C&I market (Example: equity market;
REIT, Commercial PACE)
• Net-metering: 5% cap issue
• Impact on soft cost reduction • Scalability risk: Volume needs to
– Cost of capital: 200-400 bps premium grow to attract more banks
on solar assets (700 bps for tax equity)
13. Summit Report / Recommendations Performance
Solution Paths Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets
– O&M risk manageable, but overlooked • C&I market
• Market gaps • California, Texas and New Jersey
– Transparency: Lack of transparent • Keys to adoption
data in market • Performance data: Trusted 3rd party
– Standardization: Need standardized needs to help create standards to build
methods for assessing data to reduce transparent performance data from power
solar resource risk; Takes long time to plants; Learn from other markets like
develop standards Germany and/or require monitoring
– Bankability: High degree of subjectivity • Standardization: Standardization of
in defining “bankable” product Independent Engineer evaluations;
Standardization of communication and
• Top priorities monitoring methods
– Open access to performance data
• Securitization: Transparency needed to
– Need to create “best practices” for eliminate technology risk and enable
assessing performance of plants securitization of the market
– Involve Independent Engineers to help
standardize definition on bankability
• What are the risks?
• Policy risk: ITC uncertainty makes
• Impact on soft cost reduction financing long term projects more difficult
– $/W impact: Variation in energy yield • Perceived risk : Perceived risk higher
leads to increase in system cost (10% than the actual risk of projects. We may
over-prediction 10% increase in cost) be leaving money on the table
14. Summit Report / Recommendations Installation I,II, III
Solution Paths Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets
– A NEC and I Codes • Solar America cities
– B Training • Common priority markets:
– C German methods • Residential
• Market gaps • Unique priority markets:
Commercial rooftop
– “Building code requirements” is
known, must go faster • Keys to adoption
– ‘Lack of ASTM Standard’ is • A Public awareness
known, little is being done • B Use ASTM for systems standard
– ‘Systems Approach” is over the • C Industry collaboration &
horizon leadership
• Top priorities
– A Education & public awareness
• What are the risks?
– B Plug-n-Play systems
• A Roof failures
– C Certification (components &
• B Bad PR
installers)
• C Bad/restricted policy
• Impact on soft cost reduction
– $0.50 / W, cost of capital (%)
15. Summit Report / Recommendations Workforce
Solution Paths Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets
– Industry Driven Workforce • Follow sales and economic
Collaboratives demographic/PV demand statistics
– State & Federal Certified • Residential market is leading now
Programs (eg. Apprenticeships)
– Energy Faculty Forum • Keys to adoption
• Market gaps • Regional Industry-Driven
– Need for training in Finance and Partnerships
Sales for Energy Professionals
– Miniature/Stackable Credentials
• What are the risks?
– Interdisciplinary Training
• Profitability of “Best Practices” (can
• Top priorities best practices sustain themselves?)
– Integrate EE and PV/RE into
Training Curricula
• Impact on soft cost reduction
– Standardize Learning Objectives
• Quantify Value of Training to
and Curricula
Employers
– Integrate Work Experience- OJT
-Apprenticeships
16. Summit Report / Recommendations Permitting
Solution Paths Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets
– Standardization in pockets • West
– Certification—drive adoption • CA, AZ, MA, NJ
– Streamlining—SolarABCS, etc. • Identify key cities across U.S.
• Market gaps
– Known (See Solar3.0 / SunShot) • Keys to adoption
• Top priorities • Survey AHJs to gauge training
– Training for Permitting Officials requirements
– Permit Training for Installers • Survey Industry to identify key
– Development of a Toolbox factors to expanding in AHJs
– Third Party options as “battery • Utilize DOE leverage to
backup” demonstrate viability of options
and drive adoption
• Impact on soft cost reduction • Utilize technology to expedite
– $.50 - $1.00 / W, cost of capital and streamline permitting
(10-25%)
• What are the risks?
• Pushback from jurisdictions
• Success
17. Summit Report / Recommendations Interconnect
Solution Paths Execution & Adoption
• Working well – Just scale it • Highest priority markets
– IREC Freeing the grid • Solar 3.0 top 100 cities
– IREC interconnection and net • Regional (SMUD, LADWP, PG&E, SCE)
metering best practices guideline • Keys to adoption
– Online application SDGE and FLP • Communication - not just to utilities but
• Market gaps to PUCs, munis’ and elected officials
– Tariff vs. Process and/or sustainability rep
– Utilities who have benefited using • Buy-In
existing solutions vs. those who • Education - importance of doing it
have not correctly, benefits of doing it correctly
• Top priorities • Accountability & Transparency
– Online application with Software • What are the risks?
validation & transparency • Success
– Educating applicants, identify people • Fallout from focus group (volunteers).
who need help Must have incentive
– Marketing campaign to PUCs and • Time is the enemy – need an achievable
Munis demonstrating existing time line to achieve success
solutions via webinars
• Impact on soft cost reduction
– Cycle time for on-line application
submittals is <5 days, txn costs?