Presidente Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo. Apresentação durante o evento Nor-Shipping, Oslo.
1. French Institute of Petroleum
CEO
JOSÉ SÉRGIO GABRIELLI DE AZEVEDO
May 23rd, 2011
FRANCE
1
2. DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any
events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as information or future events or for any other reason. Figures
amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of for 2010 on are estimates or targets.
future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the
Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances,
industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their
terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not
"project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in
used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned this presentation.
that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from
actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents
filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors
that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and
general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in
commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, documents filed with the United States Securities and
uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to
including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved,
Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of
governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing. Regulation S-X.
3. PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY – BREAKDOWN BY FUEL (MM TOE)
16.882 Average Annual Growth (% p.y.)
16.590 Business as Sustainable
9% 1,3% Usual Development
2,2% 10% Traditional +1,0% +1,4%
1,4% 3% 1% Biomass
6% 3,5%
1,3%
3% Other
12.271 Renewable* +6,4% +8,5%
7%
9%
0,7% 28% Biofuels +5,8% +7,2%
2% 0,4%
6% 25%
Hidro
+2,0% +2,4%
27%
Nuclear +1,2% +1,9%
22%
22%
21% Coal
+1,6% +0,9%
Gas
+1,5% +1,6%
30% 29%
33%
Oil +0,96% +0,72%
2008 Business as
2007 2030 Sustainable
2030
Usual Development
• Loss of oil relative participation in primary energy demand
•Wind, Solar (PV e CSP), Geothermal, Marine (Tide and Wave) • Significant growth of biofuels and other renewable, driven by
•Source: 2008 – IEA ; 2030 –Petrobras’ Scenarios
technological advances
• Low gas prices may result in higher gas participation over time
3
4. ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE INSTITUTIONS, NATURAL GAS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT
ROLE FILLING THE GAP LEFT BY THE CURRENT OFFLINE NUCLEAR CAPACITY
Possible outcomes to the mix of fossil energy that will substitute offline nuclear capacity
WoodMackensie Societé Générale Barclays Capital Credit Suisse PIRA
Onagawa; Coal; 14% Coal; 11% Coal; 10%
2.174 Coal; 20% Coal; 20%
Natural Gas;
20%
Natural Gas;
Fukushima Natural Gas; 39%
Daiishi; 4.696 Natural Gas; 47%
40% Natural Gas;
50%
Oil Products;
Fukushina 70%
Daini; 4.400 Oil Products;
Oil Products, Oil Products; 50%
40% 39% Oil Products,
Tokai Daini; 30%
1.100
Offline Nuclear Capacity (MW) Substituição
Substitution Substitution
Substituição Substitution
Substituição Substitution
Substituição Substitution
Substituição
81500 Gw/h – 75%
Japanese spot LNG prices lower than oil in an energy equivalent basis
Natural gas import infrastructure not much affected and already operating with
significant spare capacity
40 regasification terminals and a big storage capacity (35 day of demand)
Assumptions: It is expected that coal plants will be restored to full capacity. Capacity Factor: 75% nuclear; time horizon 12 months
Source: GE-MC/MKT/PREÇOS e GE-MC/SGN/CGNL
4
5. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN ONGOING TRANSITION ON DEMAND GROWTH DYNAMICS,
OECD MEMBERS STILL ARE THE BIGGEST OIL‐CONSUMING COUNTRIES
10%
Saudi Arabia
8%
China
6%
Annual Oil Demand Growth,
Brazil India
2005‐2010 (%)
4%
Iran
Russia
2%
Canada
France Annual GDP Growth,
Mexico Korea
2005‐2010 (%)
0%
‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
USA
‐2%
United
Kingdom Germany
Spain
‐4%
Italy Biggest Oil‐Consuming Countries – 2010
Japan
‐6%
Source: PIRA Note: each circle represents the relative size of each country’s oil demand. 5
6. THE REGION HOLDS SUFFICIENT NATURAL RESOURCES TO THE SUSTAINABLE
PRODUCTION OF FOOD AND BIOFUELS
Main Biofuels Producers and Government Programs Brazil ‐ Production (billion liters)
Biodiesel 28
28
Mexico and Caribbean Ethanol
26
Production (billion liters)
0.4 0.5 0.6
Costa Rica‐ max E8; B2 23
2008 2009 2010 Panama E10
Colombia
Ecuador 18
B2,5; E10 E8, B8
Colombia ‐ Production
(billion liters) Peru – B2 Brazil B5;
2011‐ B5; E7‐E8
E20
0.3 0.3 0.4 Bolivia – B2,5
0.2
2015‐ B20
2008 2009 2010
Argentina
2010 ‐ B7; E3
Argentina ‐ Production (billion liters) 2011/ 2012‐ B10; E5
Paraguay
2.2 B5; E18‐E24
0.8 1.4 0.3 Uruguay
0.4
2012: B5
2010 2015: E5 1.6 2.4
2007 2008 2009 1.2
0.4
Chile – B2‐B5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
E2‐E5
• Biofuels industry contributes to the rural sector development and
to employment generation;
• In Brazil, agro‐ecological zones delimit the areas for soy, cane,
and palm. From the 7% of feasible and authorized area available
to the production of cane in Brazil, only 1% is used.
Source: consolidated data based on various sources (ADP Renewables, ÚNICA, ANP and others)
6
7. ASIA, LATIN AMERICA AND MIDDLE EAST HAVE THE LARGEST PROJECTS OF NEW
REFINERIES AND CAPACITY EXPANSIONS
Refining Capacity additions (2011‐2016)
(Totals in kbpd)
4000
3500 New Refineries
3.204
3000 Expansions
2500
2000
1.997
1.755
1500
1000
736 703
500 437
153
0
Asia Middle East North Latin America Europe Former Soviet Africa
America Union
• The new refineries have large scale, high complexity and are fully prepared to process heavy crudes. Most of them
are focused in maximizing low sulfur distillates, objective achieved through the use of delayed coking and
hydrocracking units.
Source: Pira, Petrobras, 2011 7
8. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN EXPECTED REFINING PROJECTS IN THE WORLD ARE EXPORT‐
ORIENTED, IN LATIN AMERICA AND IN ASIA, THE LARGEST PROJECTS ARE ORIENTED
TO THE DOMESTIC MARKET.
Main capacity expansion projects in the world 2011‐2016 (kbpd)
North America Russia and Europe
400 Asia
180 325 180 200
140 300
75 200
2011 2012 2013 2011 2014 2016
PBF Energy Shell & Valero Tatneft Rosneft Turcas &
Aramco Socar
2012/16 2014 2015
Petrochina IndianOil Petro
Vietnam
Middle East
Latin America 375 400
580 300
Africa
178 182 110
20
2013 2014 2015
2012 2016
2013/14/ Aramco & Iran Oil Aramco &
2013/14 2013/15 Petrochina Sonangol Total Sinopec
15
Ecopetrol PDVSA
Petrobras
Project Starting Year
Source: Pira, Petrobras, 2011 8
10. FSU STAYS AS A MAJOR EXPORTER OF DIESEL AND FUEL OIL.
NON‐CHINESE ASIA INCREASES ITS IMPORTS OF OIL PRODUCTS.
150
720 300
50 10 320
140 100 240
30
370 230
540 5
10
40
30 200 65 10 100
20 130 140 80
60 60 10
110 250
70 170
60
130 200
130
Main Products' Net Exports/(Imports)
kBPD
1600 110 160
1200
800
200
400
Major world oil product
0
-400 Gasoline Diesel/Gasoil Jet Fuel Oil flows (MMBpd - 2009)
-800
-1200
USA and Latin Europe Middle Africa FSU China Asia
Canada America East (without
China)
2010 2020 Source: PIRA (Maps). PETROBRAS (Graphs) 10
11. WITH NEW REFINING IN ASIA, LONG‐HAUL* CRUDE ROUTES BECOME MORE RELEVANT
TOWARDS THE EAST, BUT LONG‐HAUL ROUTES FOR PRODUCTS MAY WEAKEN
• Tonne miles more than tripled to China, while seaborne
imports just doubled. Its fast growth demanded fast
diversification of sources from even more distant
places.
• China’s strong imports also pressure other Asian
countries to diversify their imports.
• India also demands new sources, diversifying imports
to further regions, such as West Africa.
• New refining in Asia/Pacific implies in less needs of
long‐haul imports of products, but some long‐haul
exports may remain, from India and Arabian Gulf to
Million DWT
Europe or to the US. 500
Estimated Tanker Demand
400
Vessels above
300
200,000 dwt
200
Vessels under
100 200,000 dwt
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* Long‐haul = more than 5,000 Nautical Miles
11
• Clarkson Research, February 2011
12. THE INDIAN OCEAN IS EVER MORE CRITICAL TO OIL AND PRODUCTS SHIPPING
There are strategic risks in the strait of malacca and piracy in the gulf of aden
China plans to reduce its dependency on the Malacca Strait, but volumes shipped through the
strait will remain high
• Myanmar oil pipeline
(2013/2014): 440
kbpd
• Kazakhstan‐China oil
pipeline (2013): 400
kbpd
• Russia‐China oil
pipeline (Present: 300
kbpd; expansion by
2015: 600 kbpd)
• Total from pipeline
options: 1440 kbpd,
are only 23% of
expected imports
from China (2015) –
6400 kbpd (IEA
2010)
Map: Current and future routes for China´s oil and natural gas imports (IEA 2011)
12
13. WORLD DEMAND FOR OIL
GLOBAL LIQUIDS DEMAND
120
Scenario: Business as Usual
10
1 Capacity addition
required
100
2020 43 48 MM bpd
90 Scenario: Sustainable
Development
2030 65 78 MM bpd
80
Challenges of
70 Existing production supply • Incorporation of new
discoveries
(Em MM bpd)
60
50 Project decline in • Alternatives energy
the production source
40
30 • Increase of energy
efficiency
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 •increases to Oil in Place or
recovery factor
o Perspectives: investments in oil production will be necessary
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010, EIA International Energy Outlook 2010 13
14. INTEGRATED VALUE CHAIN
Business Plan 2010‐2014
US$ 224.1 Bn Opportunities:
2%1%2%1% Economic Growth
8% Internacional Geopolitical stability
E&P 5%
RTM Hydrocarbon potential
G&P
Biofuels
Petroquímica
Challenges:
Marketing 53%
Critical resources (goods and
Biofuels 33%
Corporative Brasil
services, human resources)
95%
Financing
Energy Integration
Our main lines: Key Statistics and market position (2010)
Exploration and RTM (incl.
Retail Gas and Power International Biofuels
Production Petrochemicals)
• 15.3 Bn boe of • 12 refineries • 7,306 service • 14,246 km of • 25 countries • 3 new biodiesel
1P(SPE) stations pipelines • 0.7 Bn boe of 1P(SPE) plants
• 2.0 mm bbl/d • 245 mil boed of
• 2.3 mm boed •38.8% market share •Participation in 20 of • Ethanol: new
refining capacity production
production 27 discos of gas in markets
• 11.2 mm t/y Brazil • 281 mil bbl/d refining
•98.5% of brazilian • Responsible for
capacity
production nominal • 5,944 MW of 10% of brazilian
petrochemical Electricity Generation •Petrochemical, Gas ethanol exports.
• 20% of deepwater
capacity2) and Power activities
production capacity
Note: (1) Includes Corporative and Elimination; (2) Through Braskem and Quattor 14
15. GROWING PRODUCTION FULLY SUPPORTED BY DISCOVERIES
Petrobras Total Production (000 b/d) 5,382
R
CAG
4.5% p.y. 7.6%
120
3,907 203
1. 109
128
2,217 2,583 176
1,809 101
623
96 144
22 163
35 334
2 5 2 274
2,980 3,950
1. 5 0 0 1. 6 8 4 2.004 Pre‐Salt 1,078
241
2002 2005 2010
... 2014
... 2020
Oil Production - Brazil Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Gas Production - International
Petrobras Total Reserves (bln boe) ‐ SPE Criteria
5,000
Higher
• 18th consecutive years of fully replacing Estimates
the production (229% in 2010) 9,600
• R/P ratio 18.4 years (SPE Criteria) Lower estimates
8,100 29,000‐31,000
14,913 15,986
12,131
Proven Reserves 2002 Proven Reserves 2005 Proven Reserves 2010 Potential Recoverable (Lula, Transfer of Rights Total Resource Base
Cernambi, Iara, Guará and
Whales Park)
15
16. TRENDS IN LATIN AMERICA OIL PRODUCTION REFLECT THE BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT IN EACH COUNTRY
4.0 Latin American Oil Production 6.0
Latin American Gas Production
3.5
5.0
3.0 Arg.
Arg.
Brazil 4.0
2.5
Bolivia
MMb/d
Colo.
Bcf/d
2.0 Brazil
Ecu. 3.0
Peru Colo.
1.5
Trin. 2.0 Trin.
1.0
Ven. Ven.
0.5 Mex. 1.0 Mex.
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: BP 2010 Statistical Review Source: BP 2010 Statistical Review
16
18. PRE-SALT SUSTAINABILITY
Ex: Commitment to give Local
content
environmental friendly destination
to the carbon dioxide produced
More equipment
from Pre‐Salt reservoirs, ... Expanded
availability
supply capacity
Increased
flexibility New suppliers
Environmental
Lower prices
Financial Ex:
• Lula Pilot breakeven in the US$ 35‐
45/bbl oil price range.
• Consortia sactioned procurement
of 13 FPSOs
Social
Strengthen Brazilian Create jobs and Reinforce internal
economy income market
18
19. TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES
Subsea Reservoir
• Definition of large reservoir facies variations and fluid
• Qualification of flexible risers for water depth of 2,200m contacts from seismic data
(7,218 ft), considering CO2 and high pressure
• Internal reservoir characterization, with focus on the
• Qualification of flexible flowlines for high pressure gas • heterogeneities that impact fluid flow
Injection (about 8,000 psi)
• Secondary recovery: technical feasibility of water injection,
• Wax deposition in long pipelines • WAG‐HC and WAG‐CO2
• Feasibility of 4D seismics under the recovery methods
• Scaling control
• Rock‐fluids interactions: impact on the potential of scale
• Temperature management along the subsea lines • precipitation, on geomechanics of the surrounding rocks
• Installation and operation of uncoupled rigid risers • Avoid flow concentration in high permeability layers
• Improvement of the waterflood performance in mixed wet
• Operation of satellite WAG injection wells (avoid hydrate • carbonates
formation)
• Efficient control of inorganic scaling
FPUs Drilling and Completion
• Construction of high angle wells, deviated into the salt
zone
• Mooring in water depths of 2,200 m
• Definition of the best strategy of well stimulation
• Interaction with the riser´s system
• Quality of cement jobs and resistance to CO2
• Scenario for platforms with direct access to the wells (SPAR, • Well integrity
FPDSO)
• Penetration rate in the microbial carbonate reservoir
• CO2 separation facilities; compression, compression for
reinjection • Performance of intelligent completion
• Plant modularization for deck space/cargo optimization • New alloys to reduce costs of well materials
• Standardization of most systems in the FPSO • New procedures to reduce well drilling and completion
• duration
• Performance improvement of the new rigs
19
20. BRAZILIAN DEMAND AND REFINING CAPACITY
COMPERJ COMPERJ
(1º trem) (2º trem)
165 mil bpd 165 mil bpd
(Set-2013) (Jan-2018)
Mil bpd Refinaria
Abreu e Lima PREMIUM I
PREMIUM II
(1ª trem)
(RNE) 300 mil bpd
5.000 300 mil bpd
(Dez-2017)
230 mil bpd (Out-2014)
(Dez-2012)
PREMIUM I
(2ª trem)
4.000 300 mil bpd
(Dez-2016)
3.000
4.910
2.000
3.224
3.197
3.070
2.479
2.493
2.208
2.147
2.110
2.004
1.971
1.933
1.811
1.792
1.798
1.000
0
2009 (*) 2010 (*) 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production Throughput Oil Production Demand
(*) Dados do realizado para 2009 e 2010. 20
21. BIOFUELS TARGETS AND INVESTMENTS 2010‐2014
Continued expansion and integration with oil products
Strategy
Act globally, on biofuels production, with relevant participation in biodiesel and ethanol bussiness
Ethanol Exports Production Capacity of
Ethanol Production Biodiesel in Brazil
2.600 747
1,055 +47%
%
3 % +135
Thous. m³/year
+19 507
449
886
2010 2014 2010 2014 2010 2014
ETHANOL
Ethanol
BIO DIESEL INVESTMENTS 2010‐2014:
US$ 3.5 Billion • Increase of Petrobras participation in Brazil's
0,7
ethanol industry and bioenergy; investments
focus on developing a new generation of
biofuels and cogeneration power:
0,4
2,0 • Acquisition of 45.7% of Guarani, the 4th
largest processor of sugar cane in the country,
0,4 and agreement to reach a stake of up to 49%;
Ethanol Biodiesel R&D Logistics • Acquisition of 40.4% of Usina Total;
• Strategic partnership with Grupo São
Martinho, creating a new company, called
Nova Fronteira (49% BR).
21
22. HUMAN RESOURCES PETROBRAS
Time in company (average): 14.6 years
Actions in HR
51% 46%
Strategic Remuneration
3%
Internal development and
external attraction
48% Leadership development
Age (average): 42 years
Knowledge Management
Date: February 2011 22
23. TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
50 THEMATIC NETWORKS WITH 80 INSTITUTIONS
ANP
Technical
CENPES Scientific
Partner Partner
(manager) Committee
institution 1 institution 5
Partner Partner
institution 2 Partner institution 4
MCT institution 3
FINEP
CNPq
RESEARCH - Physical and Human Infrastructure UNIVERSITIES
INSTITUTES - Human Resources Training
- R & D Projects
SUPPLIERS - Technology Services INCUBATORS
23
24. DEMANDS OF HUMAN RESOURCES ‐ BUSINESS PLAN 2010‐2014
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Business Plan 2008 – 2012
28 Drilling Rigs
146 Supply Boats
New Stationary Production Units
Promef II
Freight 19 vessels
Refinery Premium II
Refinery Premium I
Comperj and RNEST replanning
New projects
78.402
Qualified
Professionals 212.638
New Demands
BP 2010-14
24
25. PETROBRAS CHALLENGES
Capacity to execute a huge portfolio project
Strength and reliability of supply chain
Resource management and efficiency
Human Resources challenges
Funding requirements
25