2. DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements
about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of
the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that
are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of
future results. Such forward-looking statements merely
reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of
future economic circumstances, industry conditions,
company performance and financial results. Such terms
as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend",
"plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or
analogous expressions, are used to identify such forwardlooking statements. Readers are cautioned that these
statements are only projections and may differ materially
from actual future results or events. Readers are referred
to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC,
specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on
Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could
cause actual results to differ from those contained in the
forward-looking statements, including, among other
things, risks relating to general economic and business
conditions, including crude oil and other commodity
prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates,
uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and
gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas
reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic
and social developments, receipt of governmental
approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or
revise any forward-looking statements, whether as
a result of new information or future events or for
any other reason. Figures for 2013 on are
estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly
qualified in their entirety by this cautionary
statement, and you should not place reliance on
any forward-looking statement contained in this
presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such
as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted
to present in documents filed with the United
States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because
such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or
possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation
S-X.
2
3. PETROBRAS TODAY
Fully integrated across the hydrocarbon chain
Exploration and
Production
Downstream
• 12 refineries (Brazil)
• 2.4 mm boed production
• 293 production fields
• 96% of Brazilian production
• 34% of global DW and UDW
production
Gas and Power
Distribution
• 7,641 service stations
• 2.0 mm bpd refining capacity
• 38,1% of market share
• Oil products sales in Brazil:
2,285 Kbpd
• 9,190 km of gas pipelines in
Brazil
• 20% share of service stations
• 3 LNG Regasification
terminals by 2013 with 41
MMm³/d capacity
• Oil products output in Brazil:
1,997 Kbpd
3.0
3.6
1.1
0.9
1.1
• 24 countries
• 3 Biodiesel Plants
• 0.7 Bn boe of 1P (SPE)
• Ethanol: opening new markets
• 243 th. boed production
• Largest domestic producer of
biodiesel
• 231 th. bpd refining capacity
• 3rd producer of ethanol in
Brazil
• 7,028 MW of generation
capacity
Adjusted EBITDA per Segment (US$ bn) (1)
2.2
1.7
4.2
• NG Supply: 74.9 million m³/d
Biofuels
International
1.3
2013 Proven Reserves (SPE Criteria) - Brazil
3.2
2.0
15.97 Billion boe
1.6
OnShore
8%
1.3
Shallow Water
(0-300m)
6%
11
43.4
42.0
30.5
19.3
Ultra-Deep
Water
(> 1,500m)
41%
-6.9
-15.6
E&P
2009
RTM
G&P
Distribution
2010
2011
International
Deep Water
(300-1,500m)
45%
2012
(1) Adjusted according average exchange rate. Excludes Corporate and Elimination.
3
4. COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Uniquely positioned to integrate upstream and downstream operations
Abundant reserves 300 km
away from the market
Exploration & Production
• Leader in deep-water production,
with access to abundant oil reserves
• New exploratory frontier, adjacent
to existing operations
Downstream
• Dominant position in growing
market, far from other refining
centers
• Balance and integration between
production, refining and demand
Gas & Power/ Biofuels/Petrochemicals
• Fully developed infrastructure
for processing and transporting
gas
• Integration accross full energy
and hydrocarbon chain in Brazil
4
5. 2013-2017 BMP INVESTMENTS
Projects Under Implementation x Under Evaluation
=
Total
Under Implementation
All E&P projects in Brazil and projects of the
remaining segments in phase IV
US$ 236.7 Billion
+
Under Evaluation
Projects for the remaining segments,
excluding E&P, currently in phase I, II and III.
US$ 207.1 Billion
947 projects
US$ 29.6 Billion
770 projects
177 projects
1.0%
6.1%
62.3%
(US$ 147.5 Billion)
(US$ 1.8 Billion)
71.2%
27.4%
20.9%
(US$ 147.5 Billion)
(US$ 64.8 Billion)
6.4%
(US$ 43.2 Billion)
(US$ 1.9 Billion)
2.9%
(US$ 5.9 Billion)
0.5%
2.2%
(US$ 1.1 Billion)
(US$ 5.1 Billion)
1.1%
1.4%
(US$ 2.9 Billion)
73.0%
(US$ 2.9 Billion)
(US$ 21.6 Billion)
1.1%
1.4%
0.5%
(US$ 2.3 Billion)
(US$ 1.0 Bililon)
(US$ 1.0 Billion)
1.0% (US$ 3.2 Billion)
(US$ 2.3 Billion)
Downstream
(US$ 4.0 Billion)
(US$ 3.2 Billion)
(US$ 9.9 Billion)
E&P
13.5%
1.5%
4.2%
0.4%
(US$ 0.3 Billion)
G&E
International
Pbio*
Distribuition
ETM*
Other Areas*
* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel │ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials │Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate
Phase I: Opportunity Identification; Phase II: Conceptual Project; Phase III: Basic Project ; Phase IV: Execution
5
6. E&P INVESTMENTS
2013-2017 Period
US$ 147.5 Billion
16%
(24.3)
73%
16%
Production Development
Exploration
11%
Infrastructure and Support
Exploration
Production Development
US$ 24.3 Billion
US$ 106.9 Billion
6%
24%
25%
70%
Post-Salt
Pre-Salt
Transfer of Rights
Aside from Exploration and Production Development, E&P infrastructure investments total US$ 16.3 Billion.
43%
32%
6
7. PRODUCTION CURVE IN BRAZIL - OIL AND NGL
Post-Salt, Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights
2012
Baleia Azul
(Cid. Anchieta)
2013
Baúna
(Cid. Itajaí)
Lula NE Pilot
(Cid. Paraty)
Papa-Terra
(P-63)
Roncador III
(P-55)
Thousand bpd
2014
Sapinhoá Pilot
Sapinhoá Norte
(Cid. São Paulo) (Cid. Ilhabela)
Iracema Sul
(Cid.
Mangaratiba)
2016
2015
Iracema Norte
(Cid. Itaguaí)
Lula Alto
Lula Central
Lula Sul
(P-66)
Franco 1
(P-74)
Total**
365 kbpd
Carioca
Lula Norte
(P-67)
Norte Pq.
Baleias (P-58)
Franco SW
(P-75)
Papa-Terra
(P-61)
2,500
Total**
840 kbpd
1,980
5%
(± 2%)
±
95%
93%
2011
2012
Lula Oeste
(P-69)
Franco Sul
(P-76)
Post-salt
Júpiter
Espadarte III
Iara NW
(P-71)
Bonito
Florim
Franco Leste
Deep Waters
Sergipe
(P-70)
Carcará
Parque dos
Doces
Entorno de Iara
(P-73)
4,200
6%
19%
2,750
7%
30%
2014
2015
Pre-salt (Concession)
2020
Sul Pq. Baleias
Tartaruga Verde
Maromba
e Mestiça
Espadarte I
Iara Horst
31%
35%
69%
2013
2019
1%
2,022
7%
Lula Ext. Sul
(P-68)
2018
NE de Tupi
(P-72)
Franco NW
(P-77)
Roncador IV
(P-62)
2,022
2017
58%
2016
2017
Transfer of Rights
44%
2018
2019
2020
New Discoveries*
(*) Includes new opportunities in blocks where discoveries have already been found (**) Total capacity added considering only Petrobras´ stake
´
7
8. 2013 Production – Oil and NGL in Brazil
Conclusion of 6 new units in the 4Q13
2012
2013
FPSO Cid. São Paulo
3Q12
Average 1,904
Thousand bpd
(Sapinhoá)
Jan/5
2Q13
Average 1,931
3Q13
Average 1,924
4Q13
P-63 (Papa-Terra)
2.300
2.250
FPSO Cidade de Itajaí
(Baúna)
2.200
2.150
2.100
2.050
2.000
1.950
1.900
(Lula NE Pilot)
Jun/6
Feb/16
2.110
P-58 (Parque das Baleias)
FPSO Cid. Paraty
FPSO Cid. De Anchieta
2.098
(Baleia Azul)
P-55 (Roncador)
Sep/10
2.032
1.993
1.961
1.989
1.960
1.968
1.940 1.928
1.940
1.843
1.965
1.979
1.920
1.924 1.892
1.846
1.979
1.888
1.908
1.850
P-61 (Papa-Terra)
TAD (Papa-Terra) P-62 (Roncador)
50
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13
» 2H13 production will be lower than expected due to:
P-63 / Papa-Terra: late identification of corals led to changes in the subsea arrangement;
FPSO Cidade de São Paulo / Sapinhoá: Subsea 7 delay in building, delivering and installing the Decoupled Buoyancy
Supported Risers System (monobuoy); and
Limited availability of PLSVs due to the difficulties of contracting in Brazil between 2010 and 2011, which has delayed well
connections.
»The reservoirs of producing fields have been performing above expectations. Natural Decline observed during the last 12 months
was below the projected range of 10-11%.
»The delivery of 6 new units in the 4Q13 will contribute to the sustained production growth during 2014.
8
9. NEW PRODUCTION UNITS - 2013-2014
New platforms built domestically and abroad will contribute to production
Project
Capacity
1st
Oil
Hull
Top Side /
Integration
Local Content
Bid
Round
Commit.
Target
Sapinhoá Pilot
FPSO Cid. São Paulo
120 kbpd
01/05/2013
Cosco Shipyard
China
Schahin/Modec
Brasfels
2
30%
65%
Baúna and Piracaba
FPSO Cid. Itajaí
80 kbpd
02/16/2013
Jurong
Cingapura
Odebrecht and Teekay
Cingapura
5
60%
81%
Lula NE Pilot
FPSO Cid. Paraty
120 kbpd
05/28/2013
Keppel Shipyard
Cingapura
QGOG/SBM
Brasfels
2
30%
65%
Papa-Terra
P-63
140 kbpd
11/11/2013
Cosco Shipyard
China
Quip
Rio Grande
0
0%
65%
Roncador Module III
P-55
180 kbpd
12/31/2013
EAS
Brasil
Quip
Rio Grande
0
0%
65%
Parque das Baleias
P-58
180 kbpd
1Q 2014
Queiróz Galvão
Rio Grande
Queiróz Galvão
Rio Grande
0
0%
63%
Papa-Terra
P-61
TLWP load
out to P-63
1Q 2014
Floatec
Brasfels
Floatec
Brasfels
0
0%
65%
Roncador Module IV
P-62
180 kbpd
1Q 2014
Camargo Corrêa/IESA
EAS
Camargo Corrêa/IESA
EAS
0
0%
63%
Sapinhoá Norte
FPSO Cid. Ilhabela
150 kbpd
Sep/2014
QGOG/SBM
China
QGOG/SBM
SBM/BRASA
2
30%
65%
Lula - Iracema Sul
FPSO Cid. Mangaratiba
150 kbpd
Nov/2014
Cosco Shipyard
China
Not define
2
30%
65%
* Note: “FPSO Cid. XX” = Leased / “P-XX” = Owned
9
10. PROJECT INSTALLATION
Petrobras has a strong track record of platforms installation per year
2006-2012
2013-2016
• Petrobras has installed, on average, 5 platforms per year
from 2006 to 2011.
• Ramp up of these units was delayed due to limited
availability of drilling rigs2: (2006: 2, 2011: 26)
• Between 2013 and 2016 we expect to install an average of 4
units per year.
• Petrobras will have around 40 drilling rigs² available during the
next 5 years.
Units and Oil Capacity 1-3 added per year
5 units
370 kbpd
7 units
590 kbpd
4 units
210 kbpd
5 units
480 kbpd
Installed
Manati
8MMm³/d
5 units
400 kbpd
2 units
100 kbpd
1 unit
100 kbpd
To be installed
8 units
840 kbpd
P-62
180mbpd
P-58
180mbpd
P-54
180mbpd
FPSO Cid São
Mateus
Camarupim
10MMm³/d
FPSO Cidade de
Angra dos Reis
100bpd
P-55
180mbpd
PPER-Phase 2
Δ5.3MMm³/d
FPSO E.S. PQ
DAS CONCHAS
100mbpd
FPSO Capixaba
(reallocation)
100bpd
P-61 & P-63
140mbpd
FPSOPIRANEMA
30mbpd
PRA-1
FPSO Cid.
Niteroi MLL
100mbpd
FPSO Cidade de
Santos
10MMm³/d
Cid. Paraty
120mbpd
P-34 JUBARTE
60mbpd
FSO Cid. De
Macaé
FPSO Cid. Rio
Das Ostras
30mbpd
Frade
100bpd
P-57
180mbpd
Mexilhao
15MMm³/d
P-50
180mbpd
FPSO-Cid. RJ
100mbpd
P-53 – MLL
180mbpd
P-51 – MLS
Mód. 2180bpd
SS-11
TIRO/SIDON
20mbpd
P-56
100mbpd
Cid. Anchieta
100mbpd
Cid. São Paulo
120mbpd
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
PPER-Phase 1
2.7MMm³/d
P-52
180mbpd
FPSOCAPIXABA
100mbpd
FPSO-CIDADE
DE VITÓRIA
100mbpd
SEILLEAN
GOLFINHO
30mbpd
Cid. Itajaí
80mbpd
1 - Does not include installation of Extended Well Tests / 2 - Over 2,000 meters waterdepth / 3 - Petrobras’ Total Interest in capacity added to produce oil
10
11. OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY
PROEF - Program to recover and maintain operational efficiency in Campos Basin
Formula
• PROEF aims to improve operational efficiency levels and integrity of production systems
Operational
=
Efficiency
Oil Production
PROEF Goals
•Improve Efficiency Levels
•Improve Production Systems Integrity
Capex/Opex
• Program impacts 2 of the 3 Operational Units (UO) in Campos Basin: UO-BC and UO-RIO
UO-BC
Older Fields
Production
PROEF Actions
+ 30
450 kbpd
Corrective
UO-RIO
• Actions: Workover | Well Intervention | Top Side Maintainance
New Fields
Production
PROEF Actions
7
900 kbpd
Structuring/Preventive
PROEF Goals
•Reach Sustainable Levels of Efficiency
•Reduce Risk of Loss of Efficiency
Potential
US$ 5.6 Bn
Capex/Opex
US$ 710 M
E&P Recent Operational Efficiency (%)
Operational Efficiency - E&P
100
95
90
85
Operational Efficiency - UO-BC
94
95
88
87
93
94
94
92
90
88
94
90
85
81
80
76
70
65
93
93
80
75
Operational Efficiency - UO-RIO
PROEF Targets
96
96
94
92
Operational Efficiency - Without UO-BC
71
2009
2010
72
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
11
12. DRILLING RIGS
A parte de imagem com identificação de relação rId7 não foi encontrada no arquiv o.
Needs now largely met, with increasing utilization for production development
Drilling rigs in operation (Number)
(Greater than 2000 meters)
+7
drilling rigs
7
8
2008
2009
16
2010
26
2011
33
2Q12
40
40
2012
3Q13
7 new rigs have entered into operation since the second quarter of 2012. Of these, 6 have been
allocated to production development and one to exploration
New exploration policy: migration of drilling rigs from exploration to production development.
Movement away from areas of higher risk
12
13. PRE-SALT PRODUCTION IS A REALITY
Production reached 390 thousand barrels of oil per day in January 14th, 2014
Pre-Salt Production Data
Technological Challenges Surmounted
Oil Production reached 390 kbpd (Petrobras +
Partners);
High Resolution Seismic: higher exploratory success
This level was reached with only 19 producing wells, 6
Geological
in Santos Basin and 13 in Campos Basin;
production behaviour forecast
Level reached only 7 years after discovery:
Reduction of well construction time from 134 days
and
numerical
modelling:
•
Campos Basin: 11 years
in 2006 to 70 day in 2012: lower costs
•
US Gulf of Mexico: 17 years
Selection of new materials: lower costs
•
North Sea: 9 years
better
Qualification of new systems for production
gathering: higher competitiveness
Separation of CO2 from natural gas in deep waters
and reinjection: lower emissions and increase in
recovery factor
13
14. EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL
Substantial efforts already undertaken to understand pre-salt reservoirs
Numbers
1.443 m Coring
67
Wells Drilled - up to April 2013
41
DSTs
72
Conventional Logs
6
EWTs
57
Production Logs
23
Discoveries
23
Discoveries
West Orion Rig
14
15. PRODUCTION ACCELERATION
Series of fast-tracked pilot units now producing and gathering information
Lula Pilot
Baleia Azul
On stream since Oct/2010
On stream since Sep/2012
FPSO Cidade de Angra dos Reis
FPSO Cidade de Anchieta
Sapinhoá Pilot
Lula NE
On stream since Jan/2013
On stream since May/2013
FPSO Cidade de Sáo Paulo
FPSO Cidade de Paraty
15
16. PRODUCTION ACCELERATION
Existing units connected to pre-salt wells in the Campos Basin
Baleia Franca (2 wells)
FPSO Capixaba
Carimbé (1 well)
P-48
Tracajá (2 wells)
P-53
Brava (1 well)
P-27
16
17. PRE-SALT – WHAT IS NEXT
24 New Production Units by 2020
ES
1
8
1
Lula
Iracema
Jupiter
NE Tupi
2
Vitória
Parque das
Baleias
MG
1
Florim
RJ
1
Sapinhoá
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
5
2
Franco
Iara
SP
PR
Curitiba
Campos Basin
1
Carioca
1
1
Entorno
de Iara
Carcará
SC
Santos Basin
Florianopolis
100 km
17
19. TRANSFER OF RIGHTS ACQUISITION (5 BILLION BARRELS)
Development of the areas fully under way
Declaration of Commerciality
Exploration
Production
Development
Duration: 4 years
Extendable for 2 more years
Variable, according to
Development Plan
Total Duration: 40 years, extendable for 5 more years according to specific criteria
Area
Franco
lara surroundings
Florim
NE of Tupi
South of Guará
South of Tupi
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Resources already available
for:
• 7 Exploratory wells
• 1 contingent Exploratory
well
• 1 EWT
• 2 contingent EWTs
• 3D Seismic
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
First 4
production
units
undergoing
New technologies
and definition of
resource allocation
contracting
• Average Price per barrel: US$ 8.51 (Total value: US$ 42.5 billion)
19
20. NEW PRODUCTION UNITS
Platforms under construction or already contracted will meet mid-term needs
8 Replicant FPSOs for Pre-Salt
• Oil Production Capacity: 150,000 bpd per unit
• Installation in Transfer of Rights areas
• Hulls under construction at Rio Grande Shipyard
• Contracts signed for the construction and integration of the topside modules of the six
first units: DM/TKK, IESA, Tome/Ferrostaal, Mendes Jr/OSX, Keppel-FELS and Jurong
• The two remaining topside modules and integration package contracts are expected to
be awarded by the end of 2013 with the same companies.
• P67 was moved to China (Cosco Shipyard)
4 VLCCs Conversion to FPSOs
• Installation in Transfer of Rights Areas (Franco)
• Conversion will be made at the Inhauma Shipyard
• All units will be converted from 2013 to 2016
• Next ongoing stage: modules construction and integration bidding
• P75, P76 and P77 were moved to China (Cosco Shipyard)
20
21. BRASFELS SHIPYARD - RJ
• Onwnership /Technology: Keppel FELS – Singapore (in Brazil since 2000)
On location
2
3
1
View of BrasFels Shipyard, in Angra dos Reis – RJ (08//3112).
(1) P-61 (LC:65%): Construction of the HULL of the TLWP and integration of TOPSIDE (deckbox
and modules constructed in Singapore).
(2) FPSO Cidade de São Paulo (LC:65%): Conversion of the HULL in China and integration of 15
modules, constructed in Brasfels (5 mod), Enaval (1 mod), Thailand (8 mod) and China (2 mod).
(3) FPSO Cidade de Paraty (LC:65%): Conversion of the HULL and integration of 15 modules
constructed in (5), Nuclep (4), Enaval (2) and Singapore (4).
21
22. RIO GRANDE SHIPYARD – ERG1 - RS
• Rio Grande - Partners: Ecovix and Engevix (created in 2010)
• QUIP - Partners: Queiroz Galvão, UTC Engenharia and Iesa (in Brazil since 2005)
7
6
5
•
On location
4
1
P-55 as of Dec 2013:
3
2
View of Rio Grande Shipyard ERG1 – RS (09/03/12).
(1) Steel plates of Ecovix; (2) Sub-blocks of the Hulls of the replicants of Ecovix; (3) QUIP modules for Topside and integration of P-55; (4) Modules of the IESA; (5) Pre edification area, with
details for the yellow blocks of the Goliath crane type of the Konecranes (biggest crane in the world: 210m high and capacity of 2 thousand ton) delivered in Aug/12; (6) Work integration of P-55;
(7) Work construction of Rio Grande Shipyard ERG 2, where will be constructed 3 Drilling Rigs of Setebrasil (NS Cassino, NS Curumim e NS Salinas)
22
22
23. ATLÂNTICO SUL SHIPYARD – PE
5
4
2
3
1
• Partners: Camargo Corrêa and Queiroz
Galvão (in Brazil since 2005)
• Technology Partner: Ishikawajima (IHI)
Atântico Sul Shipyard (Ipojuca-PE): Construction of Zumbi dos Palmares ship in drydock and integration of the P-62 on the dock of the shipyard (08.29.12).
(1)
P-62: Integration of the FPSO to 15 modules, including 3 built in EAS, 7 in the UTC and 5 in the Nuclep construction sites.
(2)
SHIP Zumbi dos Palmares of Suezmax (2nd ship of PROMEF 1) in drydock, (3) Panel manufacturing workshops and pre-assembly of blocks;
(4)
Future area for construction of 6 Setebrasil drilling rigs; (5) Future area for Promar Shipyard, responsible for the construction of 8 gas tankers for Promef Phase 2.
23
24. RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
Establishing research centers enhances long term future of Brazil as hub
Petrobras’ partnerships with more than 120 universities and research centers have led Brazil
to have a prominent worldwide applied research complex
Technological Park
Companies with R&D centers in operation, construction or plans for Brazil:
• Schlumberger
• Baker Hughes
• FMC Technologies
• Halliburton
• General Electric
• Vallourec & Mannesman
• Usiminas
• TenarisConfab
• Cameron
• IBM
• Technip
• Weatherford
• Wellstream
24
25. DOWNSTREAM INVESTMENTS
Projects Under Implementation
US$ 43.2 billion
2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS
21%
(9.2)
Refining capacity expansion on the Under
11%
(4.9)
9%
(3.7)
45%
(19.4)
1%
(0.3)
Implementation Portfolio: RNEST (Pernambuco)
and COMPERJ 1st Phase (Rio de Janeiro)
6% 6%
(2.4) (2.8)
1%
(0.4)
Refining capacity expansion in design phase:
6%
(2,8)
Premium I (Maranhão), Premium II (Ceará) and
Projects Under Evaluation
US$ 21.6 billion
2%
(0.5)
64%
(13.8)
16%
(3.5)
7%
(1.5)
COMPERJ 2nd Phase (Rio de Janeiro)
Diesel and Gasoline Quality Portfolio: REPLAN,
RPBC, REGAP, REFAP and RLAM
Fleet expansion: PROMEF – 45
Oil and Oil Products transportation vessels
8%
(1.7)
3%
(0.5)
Refining Capacity Expansion
Operational Improvement
Quality and Conversion
Logistics for Oil
Fleet Expansion
Petrochemical
Ethanol Logistics
Corporate
25
26. DEMAND WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DEFICIT UNTIL 2020
Products’ supply gaps and abundant oil production will create opportunity for refining
Domestic oil products demand is expected to grow 50% until 2020, but Brazil will be a material net exporter
Oil Production, Crude Throughput* And Domestic Market
Market gap for new refining projects
Oil Products Demand
Total Crude Oil Processed
Oil and NGL Production
PREMIUM I
(1st phase)
300 kbpd
Oct/17
kbpd
2,933
2,147
2,255
1,9441,980
1,323
1,036
181
1980
2,320
115 kbpd Nov/14
115 kbpd May/15
1,798
2000
2010
2012
3,3803,380
PREMIUM II
300 kbpd
Dec/17
RNEST
(Abreu e Lima)
COMPERJ
(1st Phase)
300 kbpd
Jan/18
COMPERJ
(1st Phase)
165 kbpd
Aug/16
1,814
1,641
1,393
2,004
2,750
4,200
PREMIUM I
(2st phase)
300 kbpd
Oct/20
2017
2,320
2020
Projects Under Implementation
2020 Total Crude Oil Processed may vary depending on Projects Under Evaluation
2012 Oil Products Market considers Petrobras’ sales (not total demand).
* Crude Throughput considers utilization factor.
Projects Under Implementation
26
27. TRADE BALANCE
A parte de imagem com identificação de relação rId7 não foi encontrada no arquiv o.
Rapid demand growth in the last 4 years has led to a shift in the trade balance
Diesel Sales
+24%
5,000
4,700
Gasoline Sales
+65%
2,500
Thousand m³
+24%
4,400
Thousand m³
2,800
4,100
3,800
3,500
3,200
2,900
2,200
+3%
1,900
1,600
1,300
2,600
2,300
2,000
1999
1,000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2009
Exports
(thous. bpd)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
549
548
397
Imports
75
81
Balance
Oil Products
2009
2010
2011
2012
798
184
156
2008
9M2013
377
433
390
195
364
346
18
Exports
Imports
-249
-231
Oil
2002
779
152
478
2001
2012
705
227
2000
2012
Balance
421
195
Exports
Imports
-226
-182
-408
Balance
27
28. OPERATION PERFORMANCE IN BRAZIL – DOWNSTREAM
A parte de imagem com identificação de relação rId7 não foi encontrada no arquiv o.
Refining throughput, product output and sales, and costs
Oil Products Output in Brazil (kbpd)
Oil Products Sale in Brazil (kbpd)
+5%
+3%
2,128
2,026
788
Others
Gasoline
436
Diesel
2,350
752
797
569
512
3Q12
Others
Gasoline
Diesel
984
864
802
2,422
3Q12
3Q13
Stable total output in 3Q13 vs 2Q13, with higher diesel and gasoline
production
804
587
1.031
3Q13
Diesel (+5%): Higher demand due to economic growth (especially
retail) and increase of sugar cane and corn harvest.
Gasoline (+3%): Larger flex-fuel vehicles fleet, associated with
gasoline price advantages against ethanol in some states.
Throughput (kbpd) and Utilization (%)
96%
97%
2,072
1,974
364
1.611
Utilization
Imported Oil
Domestic Oil + NGL
1
1.690
1
Higher volume of domestic oil throughput, despite lower total
1
382
throughput resulting from scheduled maintenance in REDUC,
0
REVAP and REGAP in 3Q13.
0
0
3Q12
3Q13
28
29. GASOLINE AND DIESEL INTERNATIONAL PRICES
A parte de imagem com identificação de relação rId7 não foi encontrada no arquiv o.
Taxes account for significant share of pump price in Brazil
Diesel Retail Prices
Gasoline Retail Prices
2012 Average
2012 Average
Brazil
USA
Chile
China
Refinery Gate Price
Japan
Germany
Anhydrous Alcohol
Brazil
Taxation
USA
Chile
China
Japan
Germany
Disttribution Margin
The refinery gate price for gasoline is currently 37% of the retail price
while for diesel it is 61%
29
30. Domestic and International Price Comparison
Real devaluation and higher Brent price widened the price differential
Average Brazil Price* x Average USGC Price**
1.100
Average Sales Price
USGC
1.000
900
Prices (R$/bbl)
800
Losses
210
700
Mar
Jan
180
Average Sales Price Brazil
Jun
25th
Jul 16th
6th
600
30th
500
Adjustments
400
Adjustments
150
300
200
120
100
Imported Volumes (Thousand bbl / d)
240
0
Jan/12 Feb/12 Mar/12 Apr/12 May/12 Jun/12 Jul/12 Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13 Aug/13 Sep/13
Exchange Rate (R$/US$)
Brent (US$/bbl)
+13%
+0,3%
+11%
2,29
2,03
Diesel Imports
+8%
110
110
2,07
Gasoline Imports
» Price differential increased in 3Q13 due to Real
devaluation (11%) and higher international oil prices
102
(+8% in Dollars).
3Q12
2Q13
3Q13
* Considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil.
** USGC price with domestic market prices.
3Q12
2Q13
3Q13
30
31. Natural Gas Demand and Supply
Thermoelectric demand lower in 3Q13
SUPPLY
DEMAND
million m³/day
+18%
+18%
-6%
89.4
71.0
Non-thermoelectric
Thermoelectric
39,9
Downstream
E&P/Fertilizers
39.3
40.3
39,3
18.6
11,7
3Q12
-7%
71.5
39,6
37,0
38.0
38,6
90.1
83.6
32.1
40,2
41.4
84.1
40.9
39.6
Domestic
30.4
24.6
30.3
Bolivia
LNG
2Q13
3Q13
3Q12
2Q13
3Q13
» Thermoelectric demand reduced 16%, 3Q13 vs 2Q13 due to higher levels of water in hydroelectric reservoirs. Natural gas
thermoelectric generation remained in a high level of 5.7 GW average in 3Q13.
» Lower LNG demand.
» Net income of G&E: -R$ 0.2 billion in 3Q13 x R$ 0.6 billion in 2Q13, mainly due to lower generation volume and energy
price (PLD).
34. PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
Financiability Assumptions
2013-2017 Period
US$ 207.1 Billion
Financiability Assumptions
770 projects
71.2%
(US$ 147.5 Billion)
•
28%
27.4% 20.9%
(US$ 43.2 Billion)
Investment Grade Rating maintenance:
−
−
(US$ 64.8 bi)
2.9%
(US$ 5.9 Billion)
1.5%
(US$ 3.2 Billion)
1.4%
Net Debt/EBITDA lower than 2.5x
•
No new equity issuance
•
Convergence with International Prices (Oil
Products)
•
Divestments in Brazil and, mainly, abroad
0.5%
(US$ 1.1 Billion)
Leverage lower than 35%
(US$ 2.9 Billion)
0.5%
1.1%
(US$ 2.3 Billion)
(US$ 1.0 Bililon)
E&P
Downstream
G&E
International
Pbio*
Distribuition
ETM*
* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel │ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials │Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate
Other Areas*
34
35. FINANCIAL PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS
Financing analysis only incorporates projects under implementation
No equity issuance
Investment grade maintenance
Main assumptions for cash flow generation and investment levels
2013-17 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2013.
Brent prices (US$/bbl)
US$ 107 in 2013, declining to US$ 100 in the long term
Average exchange rate (R$/US$)
R$ 2.00 in 2013, strengthening to R$ 1.85 in the long term
Leverage
Limit: < 35% │ Maximum leverage in 2013 and 2014 (34%), declining after 2015
Net debt /EBITDA
Limit : < 2.5x │ Limit will be surpassed in 2013 and will fall below 2.0x after 2015
Oil product prices in Brazil
Convergence to international prices
Divestments
US$ 9.9 billion
Returns on new E&P projects
Pre-salt projects breakeven between US$ 40-45/barrel
Big post-salt projects have returns similar to pre-salt’s
35
36. OPERATING CASH FLOW AND FUNDING NEEDS
Free cash flow, before dividends, by 2015.
246.9
9.9
10.7
246.9
39.8
Annual borrowing needs (2013-2017)
Gross – US$ 12.3 billion │Net – US$ 4.3 billion
PRODESIN – Divestment Program:
61.3
US$ Billion
2010/2011 Accomplishment: US$ 1.3 billion
2012 Accomplishment: US$ 3.4 billion
2013 Accomplishment: US$ 7.4 billion
207.1
165.0
Sources
Uses
Divestments and restructurings
Cash utilization
Third-party resources (Debt)
Operating cash flow (after dividends)
Amortization
Investments
Sale of 27.3% interest in Edesur company (Argentina)
Sale of 20% interest of block 6/06 (Angola)
Sale of Financial Securities of BR Distribuidora as a guarantee to Petros.
Sale of 20% interest in Gila asset (EUA)
Sale of 50% in blocks in Africa (Agbami, Akpo, Egina and Block 2/85)
Sale of 100% of Brasil PCH
Sale of 100% of Pertroquímica Innova S.A. for US$ 372 million
Sale of 35% stake in block BC-10 in Campos Basin to Shell (23%) and ONGC
Videsh (12%) for US$ 1.636 billion
Sale of 20% of voting capital of Companhia Energética Potiguar (CEP) for
US$ 16 million
Farm-out contracts in US Gulf of Mexico for US$ 185 million (stakes of 33% in
Coulomb, 100% in Cottonwood, 60% in EW910 fields)
Sale of 100% of Petrobras Colombia for US$ 380 million
Sale of participation in Blocks 3 and 4 in Punta del Este Basin (Uruguay) for
US$ 17 million
Sale of 100% of shares issued by the subsidiary Petrobras Energia Peru (PEP)
36
for US$ 2.6 billion
37. EBITDA
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Growing and stable cash flow generation
Adjusted EBITDA (US$ bn)*
33,7
Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown per Segment (US$ bn)**
37,3
27,6
28,4
3,0
3,6
2,1
1,4
4,1
1,3
3,2
2,0
1,3
43,4
42,0
30,6
2010
2011
2012
-6,9
LTM
-15,6
2011
2010
E&P
RTM
G&P
2012
Distribution
1,6
3,1
2,1
1,7
37,9
-10,7
LTM
International
(*) IFRS
(**) Adjusted according average exchange rate. Excludes Corporate and Elimination
37
37
38. CAPEX AND CASH FLOW
A parte de imagem com identificação de relação rId7 não foi encontrada no arquiv o.
Free cash flow turns positive with completion of downstream projects
Capex vs. Operating Cash Flow
US$ MM
Approx.
$49 billion
50.000
45,078
43,164
Capex 2011
Capex 2012
$39 billion
40.000
30.000
Approx.
27,230
20.000
10.000
0
OCF LTM
E&P
Downstream
Capex 2013
Gas & Energy
Capex 2017
Others
• 2013 - 2017 Business and Management Plan Assumptions:
• Capex: Downstream projects not currently under implementation only proceed supported by cash
flows and balance sheet strength
• Operating Cash Flow: Oil production increases by 750 thous. bpd, generating additional operating
cash flow. Import parity would eliminate downstream losses
38
39. CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Increase in Net Debt in 3Q13
Net debt / Net Capitalization 2
Net Debt/EBITDA 1
5,0
4,0
28%
31%
31%
34%
40%
30%
20%
3,0
2,0
36%
2,42
2,77
2,32
2,57
3,05
10%
0%
1,0
-10%
0,0
-20%
3Q12
R$ Billion
4Q12
1Q13
09/30/13
2Q13
3Q13
06/30/13
Short-term Debt
18.2
18.2
Long-term Debt
232.7
230.8
Total Debt
250.9
249.0
provided by operating activities (R$ 14.4 bi) and
57.9
72.8
use of cash (R$ 19.6 bi) for investing activities.
193.0
176.3
86.5
79.6
(-) Cash and Cash Equivalents 3
= Net Debt
» Increase in net debt in 3Q13 due to lower cash
US$ Billion
Net Debt
1)
2)
3)
Net Debt / (adjusted EBITDA 9M13/3 x 4). Adjusted EBITDA= EBITDA excluding earnings of equity-accounted investments and impairments
Net debt / (Net Debt + Shareholders Equity)
Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days
39
40. DEBT PROFILE
Diversification and long term
Total Debt (US$ 112.5 billion as of 9/30/2013)
By Maturity
Short term
7%
By Category
Others
2%
Intl Capital
Markets
38%
By Currency
Brazilian State
Banks
26%
Euro
6%
Others
3%
By Rate
Real
20%
Fixed
49%
Dolar
71%
Long term
93%
ECA´s +
Develop. Banks 13%
Floating
51%
Financial
Institutions
21%
Long Term Debt Amortization Schedule
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 and after
40
41. PETROBRAS RATINGS
Consolidated Investment Grade position
Petrobras Rating: Baa1
Brazil: Baa2 (1 notch below PB)
Outlook: Negative
Petrobras Rating: BBB
Petrobras Rating: BBB
Outlook: Negative
Outlook: Stable
Brazil: BBB
Brazil: BBB
•
Investment grade rating by all three rating agencies;
•
Same rating as Sovereign in S&P and Fitch; 1 notch above Sovereign in Moody’s;
•
Petrobras’ consolidated investment grade position is strongly supported by the sovereign rating:
•
Company’ size and dominant position in Brazil warrants support from the government;
•
Maintaining investment grade rating is essential for the feasibility of the BMP 2013-17, as it reduces
financing cost.
41
42. DIVIDEND POLICY
Petrobras policy is to pay a minimum of 25% of adjusted net income to each class of shares
Petrobras By-Laws Consistent with Brazilian Corporate Law
According to Brazilian Corporate Law, companies with two classes of shares must pay a minimum
amount equal to 25% of net income
Regarding Petrobras By-Laws, minimum payable to non-voting shares (PN/PBR.A) is the higher of:
25% of Adjusted Net Income
3% of the PN’s proportional book value of shareholder’s equity
5% of the PN’s proportional paid-in capital
Non-voting shares have priority rights to distribution of dividends
The application of Petrobras policy and by-laws resulted in the following declarations of dividends
based on 2012 Adjusted Net Income:
SHARE
ADR
PN – PBR.A
R$ 0.96
R$ 1.92
ON – PBR
R$ 0.47
R$ 0.94
Note: 1 ADR = 2 shares
PN/PBR.A received a higher dividend for 2012 results because of the requirement of a minimum
distribution, based on corporate by-laws, of 3% of the book value of shareholder equity
42
