2. Systems Thinking
Systems Thinking is a way to look at
complex systems.
It is an approach to observing and analyzing
complex organizations in a comprehensive
manner: seeking to understand the structure,
the interconnections between all of the
components, and how changes in any one area
will affect the whole system and its related parts
over time.
3. Systems Thinking (cont.)
What is a “system”?
a system is "a collection of interacting elements
that function together for some purpose" (Roberts
et al. 1983, 5).
4. Key Systems Thinking Concepts
Mental Models
Our beliefs, assumptions, and ideas about how things work.
Mental models are often hidden, even from ourselves.
Dynamic System
Systems, which change over time, are dynamic. Growth, decay,
and oscillations are the fundamental patterns of systems.
Change Over Time
There are patterns in the world that we can understand, with a
little effort. These patterns are usually generated by
interconnectedness.
Feedback
The real world often operates in circular causality, not just cause
and effect.
Leverage
How can I generate viable options and solve real problems in a
complex and interconnected world?
5. Examples of systems thinking in
action
In history class, students study the inter-dependent relationships
between oppression, power, and rebellion in order to better
understand the causes of various revolutions.
In literature class, students use a computer simulation of the novel,
“The Giver”, to discover the possible results of changes in the society
represented in the story.”
In the community, city planners use causal loop diagrams to study
long-term, unintended consequences of a new policy. They consider
potential effects throughout the system – not just in the immediate
proximity.
In science class, students graph the growth patterns over time of
various populations in a pond and look for possible clues to
understanding the extreme level of toxicity in the water
6. What is the relationship between Systems
Thinking and System Dynamics?
Dynamic systems are those that change over time.
Organizations
Companies
Schools
Government entities
Systems thinking and dynamics look at exactly the same
kind of systems from the same perspective.
Systems thinking constructs the same causal loop
diagrams, but it rarely takes the additional steps of
constructing and testing a computer simulation model,
and testing alternative policies in the model.
7. System Dynamics
System dynamics is a methodology for studying and
managing complex feedback systems, such as one finds
in business and other social systems.
While the word system has been applied to all sorts of
situations, feedback is the differentiating descriptor here.
Feedback refers to the situation of X affecting Y and Y in turn
affecting X perhaps through a chain of causes and effects.
One cannot study the link between X and Y and, independently,
the link between Y and X and predict how the system will
behave. Only the study of the whole system as a feedback
system will lead to correct results.
8. System Dynamics (cont.)
The methodology
identify a problem
develop a dynamic hypothesis to explain the cause of the problem
build a computer simulation model of the system at the root of the
problem
test the model to be certain that it reproduces the behavior seen in
the real world
devise and test alternative policies in the model that alleviate the
problem
implement the solution
Rarely is one able to proceed through these steps without reviewing
and refining an earlier step. For instance, the first problem identified
may be only a symptom of a still greater problem.
9. System Dynamics (cont.)
The field developed initially from the work of Jay W.
Forrester. His book Industrial Dynamics (Forrester 1961)
is still a significant statement of philosophy and
methodology in the field. Since its publication, the span
of applications has grown extensively and now
encompasses work in:
corporate planning and policy design
public management and policy
biological and medical modeling
energy and the environment
theory development in the natural and social sciences
dynamic decision making
complex nonlinear dynamics
education
10. System Dynamics (cont.)
Understanding Stocks and Flows
The stock of goods is increased by restocking and depleted by
customer purchases over time.
The accumulation of water in a bathtub increases as water flows in
through the faucet and decreases as water flows out through the drain.
Money in a bank account increases with deposits and decreases with
withdrawals.
Populations of people and other species change over time through
births and deaths.
The number of passengers on a bus or train varies as people get on
and off.
Your weight depends on the calories you consume and burn off.
12. System Dynamics (cont.)
STELLA®
STELLA offers a practical way to dynamically visualize
and communicate how complex systems and ideas really
work.
Modelers, teachers, students, and researchers use
STELLA to explore and answer endless questions like:
How does climate change influence an ecosystem over time?
Would Hamlet’s fate have changed if he’d killed Claudius
earlier?
How do oil prices respond to shocks in supply and/or demand?
What will happen when the ozone layer is gone?
How do basic macroeconomic principles affect income and
consumption?
13. Creating Models and Conducting
Experiments
Borneo Model
Immigration Model
Conduct experiments
A.T. Kearney Distribution Modeler
Conduct experiments
14. System Dynamics in Distance Education
In 1983 Moore proposed a theory of distance education
that defined distance in terms of the "responsiveness" of an
educational program to the learner, rather than in terms of
the physical separation of the instructor and the learner.
System dynamics was selected for conceptualizing the
relationships among the key variables and for simulating
the temporal dynamics (time-based variance) of such
interrelationships. Analysis of the discourse between the
instructor and the learners provided the means of
measuring the variables under study and the raw data for
simulating the interrelationships of the variables. (Saba 1994)
15. System Dynamics in Distance Education
(cont.)
In 1980, Moore introduced the concept of transactional distance and
defined it as a function of two variables, dialogue and structure
(Moore, 1980).
Dialogue is "the extent to which, in any educational program, the learner
and educator are able to respond to each other";
Structure is "a measure of an educational programme's responsiveness
to learners' individual needs" (Moore 1983, 171).
Transactional distance was defined as a function of the variance in
dialogue and structure as they related to each other; from this
perspective, "distance" in education is not determined by geographic
proximity, but rather by the level and rate of dialogue and structure
(Moore 1983; Saba 1988).
16. System Dynamics in Distance Education
(cont.)
In 1988, Saba proposed a system dynamics model to represent the
relationship among these variables. This model assumed a systemic
and dynamic relationship between dialogue and structure, and
suggested how a learner and a teacher, by varying the rate of
dialogue and structure, could control the level of transactional
distance in a purposeful instructional setting.
Causal Loop Diagram of Transactional Distance
17. System Dynamics in Distance Education
(cont.)
Transaction Distance is only one area where Systems Thinking and Systems
Dynamics can be used.
Coldeway (1988) suggested the use of system modeling in distance education
contexts to study several interrelated variables such as:
instructional content
technological delivery system
policies related to course completion
the timing of course events
Also, based on Hawkridge and Robinson's (1982) analysis of international
distance education organizations, Saba and Twitchell (1988/89) developed a
system dynamics model that simulated the relationship of:
available resources
student population and attrition
management
instructional development
production of instructional materials
dissemination
18. System Dynamics in Distance Education
(cont.)
Distance education is a complex concept; its study
requires,
methodology that can accommodate data collected on several
variables
the analysis of their interrelationship over time
Distance education is affected by the political, social,
financial, and technological factors in its environment.
System dynamics also provides for the study of
interrelated variables over a period of time. The variables
of transactional distance, dialogue and structure, are not
static: they change over time depending on the
interaction between an instructor and a learner.
19.
20. The variables, or system components, are
defined as follows:
dialogue is "the extent to which, in any educational program, learner
and educator are able to respond to each other" (Moore 1983, 171). In
other words, it is the extent of verbal interaction between the educator
and the learner.
Structure is "a measure of an educational programme's responsiveness
to learners' individual needs" (Moore 1983, 171) or the extent to which
pace, sequence, feedback, and content are organized.
Transactional distance is a function of the variance in dialogue and
structure as they relate to each other; therefore, "distance" in education
is not determined by geographic proximity, but by the level and rate of
dialogue and structure (Moore 1983; Saba 1988).
learner control is a dynamic variable changed by the dialogue
(discourse) between learner and instructor and continuously influencing
(altering) the overall dialogue of a telelesson in terms of objectives,
feedback, pace, sequence, content, etc. (Garrison and Baynton 1989;
Shearer 1991).
21. active indicates speech acts by the learner that show involvement in the
instructional transaction: providing information, requesting clarification
and elaboration, asking questions, providing feedback, and responding
to the instructor's directives.
passive indicates speech acts in which the learner responds by a simple
yes or no, or the absence of speech acts for long periods.
Instructor control is a dynamic variable changed by the interaction
between the instructor and learner and continuously influencing
(altering) the structure of a lesson in terms of objectives, feedback,
pace, sequence, content, etc.
direct indicates the instructor's expository speech acts that provide
guidance, information, and feedback; lead the learner by asking
questions; and respond to the learner by informative comments.
indirect indicates the instructor's inquisitive speech acts that request
clarification and elaboration from the learner, ask questions for the
purpose of clarification, respond to the learner's inquiries, and provide
supportive and corrective feedback.
22. Research
Descriptive
Empirical observation of systems in order to
describe their status
Observing and reporting
• student/teacher behavior
• Student/teacher interaction
Prescriptive
Testing results of empirical observation to
derive principles for decision making, and
problem solving
