4. We need to analyze the types of data. There are two types of
cost:
Variable cost
Fixed cost
In our case study:
Variable cost:
Investment costs: Construction costs (grid cost), Loan
Operation & Maintenance costs: Repair & Maintenance,
Lubricant, Worker
Fuel cost: Wood and Diesel
Fixed cost
Customer service: Phone & Accounting
4
5. The methodology used in the calculations is divided into
3 points:
Operation costs: variable cost, fixed cost, and total
operation cost.
Incomes: income from battery charging, income from
household consumption, and total income.
Others: total gain, net annual profit, break even point or
cumulative earning, simple payback period(SPP), return
on investment(ROI), net present value(NPV), future
value, and internal rate of return(IRR).
5
6. But the methodology that we concentrate the most are:
Loan form bank (US$) = Machinery cost + Grid Cost - Own
investment
Total Gains = Sales revenue/year + Loan form bank
Net Annual profit = (Own invest + Loan + Sale revenue) -
(Total operation cost + VAT)
Break Event Point or Cumulative Earning:
– First year of Cumulative Earning = The first year of Net annual
profit (US$)
– The following year of Cumulative Earning = The previous one+
Net annual of that year
6
10. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
I. Result
After getting the performance data and by
using the technology cost, methodologies of
calculation, we get the result of gasifier village
electrification in Table.2: Results of gasifier
village electrification.
10
11. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
II. Sensitivity Analysis
Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Electricity
Consumption
3. Analyze the Impact of the Change in Diesel
Price and Diesel Generation Efficiency
4. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-3
11
12. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Tables 3. Charts
Increase in
Loan Interest
(%)
Increase in
Interest of
Loan (US$)
Increase in
Total Operation
Cost/year (US$)
Decrease in
Net Annual
Profit (US$)
Decrease in
Loan Interest
(%)
Decrease in
Interest of
Loan (US$)
Decrease in
Total Operation
Cost/year (US$)
Increase in
Net Annual
Profit (US$)
High interest rate(25%/year):
Low interest rate(2.9%/year):
12
18. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Tables 3. Charts
Table. 6: The results of different combinations
of changes of gasifier village electrification
Table. 3: Analyze the Impacts of Changes in
Interest Rate
Table. 4: Analyze the Increase in Electricity
Consumption
Table. 5: Analyze the Increase in diesel price
Table. 7: The best and the worst Net Annual
Profit 18
19. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Tables 3. Charts
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier village electrification's chart for
Inc. E.C 50%; I.R 2.9%/yr; No Inc. D.P
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
-280000
-260000
-240000
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier village electrification's chart for
No Inc. E.C; I.R 25%/yr; Inc. D.P 50%
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Net Annual Profit No. 1 Net Annual Profit No. 8
19
20. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Tables 3. Charts
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier village electrification's chart for
Inc. E.C 50%; I.R 2.9%/yr; Inc. D.P 50%
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Net Annual Profit No. 2
-280000
-260000
-240000
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier village electrification's chart for
No Inc. E.C; I.R 25%/year; No Inc. D.P
Total Gains Net Annual Profit ($)
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Net Annual Profit No. 7
20
21. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Tables 3. Charts
-120000
-110000
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier Village Electrification's Chart For
No Inc. E.C; I.R 2.9%/yr; No Inc. D.P
Total Gains Net Annual Profit ($)
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Net Annual Profit No. 3
-260000
-240000
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier Village Electrification's Chart For
Inc. E.C 50%; I.R 25%/yr; Inc. D.P 50%
Total Gains Net Annual Profit ($)
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Net Annual Profit No. 6
21
22. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Tables 3. Charts
Net Annual Profit No. 4 Net Annual Profit No. 5
-120000
-110000
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier Village Electrification's Chart For
No Inc. E.C; I.R 2.9%/yr; Inc. D.P 50%
Total Gains Net Annual Profit ($)
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
-260000
-240000
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Gasifier Village Electrification's Chart For
Inc. E.C 50%; I.R 25%/yr; No Inc. D.P
Total Gains Net Annual Profit ($)
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
22
23. CHAPTER1:GASIFIERVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
III. Conclusion
The minimum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2014 which is the case of
the best Net Annual Profit No. 1 (Increase 50% in
electricity consumption, Interest rate 2.9%, No
Increase in diesel price).
The maximum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2023 which is the case of
the worst Net Annual Profit No. 8 (No increase in
electricity consumption, Interest rate
25%, Increase 50% in diesel price).
23
26. II. Sensitivity Analysis
Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Electricity
Consumption
3. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-2
CHAPTER2:PVVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
26
27. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
CHAPTER2:PVVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
Inc.
50% in
E.C
I.R
2.9%
N.A.P
No.1
No Inc.
in E.C
I.R
2.9%
N.A.P
No.2
Inc.
50% in
E.C
I.R 25%
N.A.P
No.3
No Inc.
in E.C
I.R 25%
N.A.P
No.4
27
28. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
CHAPTER2:PVVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
Table. 9: The results of different combinations
of changes of PV village electrification
28
29. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
CHAPTER2:PVVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
PV village electrification's chart for low interest
rate 2.9%/year, increase 50% in electricity
consumption
Total Grains Net Annual Profit ($)
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
-300000
-280000
-260000
-240000
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
PV village electrification's chart for high
interest rate 25%/year
Total Grains Net Annual Profit ($)
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
Net Annual Profit No. 1 Net Annual Profit No. 4
29
30. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
CHAPTER2:PVVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
Net Annual Profit No. 2 Net Annual Profit No. 3
-240000
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
PV village electrification's chart for high interest
rate 25%/year, increase 50% in electricity
consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
PV village electrification's chart for low interest
rate 2.9%/year, no increase in electricity
consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
30
31. III. ConclusionCHAPTER2:PVVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
The minimum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2012 which is the case of
the best Net Annual Profit: Increase 50% in
electricity consumption, Lower Interest rate
2.9%.
The maximum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2023 which is the case of
the worst Net Annual Profit: No increase in
electricity consumption, Higher Interest rate
25%.
31
33. CHAPTER3:HYDROVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
I. Result
After getting the performance data and by
using the technology cost, methodologies of
calculation, we get the result of Hydro village
electrification in Table. 10: Results of
Hydro village electrification.
33
34. II. Sensitivity Analysis
Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Electricity
Consumption
3. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-2
CHAPTER3:HYDROVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
34
35. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Inc.
50% in
E.C
I.R
2.9%
N.A.P
No.1
No Inc.
in E.C
I.R
2.9%
N.A.P
No.2
Inc.
50% in
E.C
I.R 25%
N.A.P
No.3
No Inc.
in E.C
I.R 25%
N.A.P
No.4
35
CHAPTER3:HYDROVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
36. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Table. 11: The results of different
combinations of changes of hydro village
electrification
36
CHAPTER3:HYDROVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
37. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Net Annual Profit No. 1 Net Annual Profit No. 2
37
CHAPTER3:HYDROVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
105000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Hydro village electrification's chart for low
interest rate 2.9%/year, increase 50% in
electricity consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Hydro village electrification's chart for low interest
rate 2.9%/year, no increase in electricity
consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
38. III. Conclusion
The best case of sensitivity analysis which Loan from
bank started to remain zero is in year 2012 which is the
case of the best Net Annual Profit: Increase 50% in
electricity consumption, Lower Interest rate 2.9%.
The worst case of sensitivity analysis which Loan from
bank started to remain zero is also in year 2012 which is
the case of the worst Net Annual Profit: No increase in
electricity consumption, Higher Interest rate 25%.
Even the best case and the fairly good case of
sensitivity analysis which loan form bank equal to zero
is in the same year 2012, the different of earning in US
dollar of both case is quite high.
39
CHAPTER3:HYDROVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
40. CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
I. Result
After getting the performance data and by
using the technology cost, methodologies of
calculation, we get the result of Diesel village
electrification in Table. 12: Results of
Diesel village electrification.
41
41. II. Sensitivity Analysis
Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Energy
Consumption
3. Analyze the Impact of the Change in Diesel
Price and Diesel Generation Efficiency
4. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-3
42
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
42. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
43
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
No
Inc.
E.C
I.R
2.9%/
yr
No
Inc.
D.P
N.A.P
No.1
Inc.
E.C
50%
I.R
2.9%/
yr
No
Inc.
D.P
N.A.P
No.2
No
Inc.
E.C
I.R
25%/y
ear
No
inc.
D.P
N.A.P
No.3
43. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
44
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
No
Inc.
E.C
I.R
2.9%/
yr
Inc.
D.P
50%
N.A.P
No.4
Inc.
E.C
50%
I.R
25%/
yr
No
Inc.
D.P
N.A.P
No.5
No
Inc.
E.C
I.R
25%/
yr
Inc.
D.P
50%
N.A.P
No.6
44. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
45
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
Inc.
E.C
50%
I.R
2.9%/
yr
Inc.
D.P
50%
N.A.P
No.7
Inc.
E.C
50%
I.R
25%/
yr
Inc.
D.P
50%
N.A.P
No.8
45. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Table. 13: The results of different
combinations of changes of diesel village
electrification
46
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
46. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Net Annual Profit No. 1 Net Annual Profit No. 2
47
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
-90000
-85000
-80000
-75000
-70000
-65000
-60000
-55000
-50000
-45000
-40000
-35000
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for low interest rate
2.9%/year, no increase in electricity consumption, no
increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
-120000
-110000
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for low interest rate
2.9%/year, increase 50% in electricity consumption, no
increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
47. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Net Annual Profit No. 3 Net Annual Profit No. 4
48
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
-160000
-150000
-140000
-130000
-120000
-110000
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for low interest rate
2.9%/year, no increase in electricity consumption, increase
50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
-168000
-162000
-156000
-150000
-144000
-138000
-132000
-126000
-120000
-114000
-108000
-102000
-96000
-90000
-84000
-78000
-72000
-66000
-60000
-54000
-48000
-42000
-36000
-30000
-24000
-18000
-12000
-6000
0
6000
12000
18000
24000
30000
36000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for high interest rate
25%/year
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
48. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Net Annual Profit No. 5 Net Annual Profit No. 6
49
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
-220000
-210000
-200000
-190000
-180000
-170000
-160000
-150000
-140000
-130000
-120000
-110000
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for high interest rate
25%/year, increase 50% in electricity consumption, no
increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
-300000
-280000
-260000
-240000
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for high interest rate
25%/year, no increase in electricity consumption, increase
50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
49. II. Sensitivity Analysis
1. Diagrams 2. Table 3. Charts
Net Annual Profit No.7 Net Annual Profit No. 8
50
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
-220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for low interest rate
2.9%/year, increase 50% in electricity
consumption, increase 50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
-390000
-360000
-330000
-300000
-270000
-240000
-210000
-180000
-150000
-120000
-90000
-60000
-30000
0
30000
60000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
US$
Year
Diesel village electrification's chart for high interest rate
25%/year, increase 50% in electricity consumption, increase
50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit
Cumulative earnings Loan from bank
50. III. Conclusion
The best Net Annual Profit is the shortest period of
payback loan, and the best choice of investment.
For our diesel village electrification, the year of
Loan from bank is fluctuated gradually. It means that
it is unacceptable investment for the cases of
sensitivity analysis.
51
CHAPTER4:DIESELVILLAGE
ELECTRIFICATION
51. Table 14: Result of Sensitivity Analysis of
Village Electrification with
Different Technologies
52
1. Table 2. Conclusion 3.Decision
52. 53
2. Conclusion1. Table 3.Decision
The best: Hydro Village Electrification
2nd : PV Village Electrification
3rd : Gasifier Village Electrification
The Worst: Diesel Village Electrification
56. Part II: Village Battery charging with different
technologies
Chapter 1: Gasifier village battery charging
Chapter 2: PV village battery charging
Chapter 3: Hydro village battery charging
Chapter 4: Diesel village battery charging
Chapter 5: Conclusion
2
57. After getting the performance data and by using
the technology cost, methodologies of calculation,
we get the Table. 15: Results of gasifier
village battery charging.
58. Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Electricity
Consumption
3. Analyze the Impact of the Change in Diesel Price and
Diesel Generation Efficiency
4. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-3
4
59. -60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Gasifier village battery charging's chart for low interest rate 2.9%/year, no increase
in electricity consumption, no increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
No
Increase
Energy
Consumpti
on
Interest
rate
2.9%/year
No
increase
Diesel
price
Net
Annual
Profit N.1
5
60. -60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Gasifier village battery charging's chart for low interest rate 2.9%/year, no increase
in electricity consumption, increase 50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
No
increase
Energy
Consumpti
on
Interest
rate
2.9%/year
increase
Diesel
price 50%
Net
Annual
Profit N.2
6
61. -80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Gasifier village battery charging's chart for lower interest rate 2.9%/year, increase 50%
in electricity consumption, no increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Increase
Energy
Consumpti
on 50%
Interest
rate
2.9%/year
No
increase
Diesel
price
Net
Annual
Profit N.3
7
62. -90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Gasifier village battery charging's chart for lower interest rate 2.9%/year, increase
50% in electricity consumption, increase 50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Increase
Energy
Consumpti
on 50%
Interest
rate
2.9%/year
increase
Diesel
price
Net
Annual
Profit N.4
8
63. -180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Gasifier village battery charging's chart for high interest rate 25%/year, no increase
in electricity consumption, no increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
No
increase
Energy
Consumpti
on
Interest
rate
25%/year
No
increase
Diesel
price
Net
Annual
Profit N.5
9
64. -180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Gasifier village battery charging's chart for high interest rate 25%/year, no increase
in electricity consumption, increase 50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
No
Increase
Energy
Consumpti
on
Interest
rate
25%/year
Increase
Diesel
price 50%
Net
Annual
Profit N.6
10
65. -220000
-200000
-180000
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Gasifier village battery charging's chart for high interest rate 25%/year, increase
50% in electricity consumption, no increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Increase
Energy
Consumpti
on 50%
Interest
rate
25%/year
No
increase
Diesel
price
Net
Annual
Profit N.7
11
67. Table. 16: The results of different combinations
of changes of gasifier village battery charging
The minimum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2013 which is the case of the
best Net Annual Profit No.1: No increase in
electricity consumption, No increase in diesel
price, Lower Interest rate 2.9%.
The maximum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2019 which is the case of the
worst Net Annual Profit No.8: Increase 50% in
electricity consumption, Increase 50% in diesel
price, Higher Interest rate 25%. 13
68. After getting the performance data and by using the
technology cost, methodologies of calculation, we
get the Table. 17: Results of PV village battery charging.
69. 15
Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Electricity
Consumption
3. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-2
70. Interest rate
2.9%/year
Increase
Energy
consumption
50%
Net Annual
Profit N.11.
16
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
PV village battery charging's chart for interest rate 2.9%/year& increase
consumption 50%
Total Gains Net Annual Profit ($) Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
71. Interest rate
25%/year
Increase
Energy
consumption
50%
Net Annual
Profit N.22.
17
-16000
-14000
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
PV village battery charging's chart for high interest rate 25%/year, increase 50% in
electricity consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
72. Interest rate
2.9%/year
No Increase
Energy
consumption
Net Annual
Profit N.33.
18
-14000
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
PV village batter charging's chart for lower interest rate 2.9%/year, no increase in
electricity consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
73. Interest rate
25%/year
No Increase
Energy
consumption
Net Annual
Profit N.44.
19
-36000
-34000
-32000
-30000
-28000
-26000
-24000
-22000
-20000
-18000
-16000
-14000
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
PV village battery charging's chart for high interest rate 25%/year
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
74. Table. 18: The results of different combinations
of changes of PV village battery charging
The minimum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2013 which is the case of the
best Net Annual Profit No.1: Increase 50% in
electricity consumption, Lower Interest rate
2.9%.
The maximum year of Loan from bank started to
remain zero is in year 2017 which is the case of the
worst Net Annual Profit No.4: No increase in
electricity consumption, Higher Interest rate
25%. 20
75. After getting the performance data and by using the
technology cost, methodologies of calculation, we get
the Table. 19: Results of Hydro village battery charging.
76. 22
Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Electricity
Consumption
3. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-2
77. Interest rate
2.9%/year
Increase
Energy
consumption
50%
Net Annual
Profit N.11.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Hydro village battery charging's chart for low interest rate
2.9%/year, increase 50% in electricity consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
23
78. Interest rate
25%/year
Increase
Energy
consumption
50%
Net Annual
Profit N.22.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Hydro village battery charging's chart for high interest rate
25%/year, increase 50% in electricity consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
24
79. Interest rate
2.9%/year
No Increase
Energy
consumption
Net Annual
Profit N.33.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Hydro village battery charging's chart for low interest rate 2.9%/year, no
increase in electricity consumption
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
25
80. Interest rate
25%/year
No Increase
Energy
consumption
Net Annual
Profit N.44.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Hydro village battery charging's chart for high interest rate 25%/year
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
26
81. Table. 20: The results of different combinations
of changes of hydro village battery charging
The best case of sensitivity analysis which Loan from
bank started to remain zero is in year 2010 which is
the case of the best Net Annual Profit No. 1:
Increase 50% in electricity consumption, Lower
Interest rate 2.9%.
The worst case of sensitivity analysis which Loan
from bank started to remain zero is also in year 2010
which is the case of the worst Net Annual Profit
No.4: No increase in electricity
consumption, Higher Interest rate 25%.
27
82. After getting the performance data and by using the
technology cost, methodologies of calculation, we
get the Table. 21: Results of Diesel village battery
charging
83. 29
Then we are going to study about Sensitivity
Analysis:
1. Analyze the Impacts of Change in Interest Rate
2. Analyze the Impacts of Increase in Electricity
Consumption
3. Analyze the Impact of the Change in Diesel Price and
Diesel Generation Efficiency
4. Analyze the Combination of Changes from 1-3
84. -1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Diesel village battery charging's chart for low interest rate 2.9%/year, increase 50%
in electricity consumption, no increase in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Interest
rate
2.9%/year
Increase
Energy
consumpti
on 50%
No
increase
Diesel
Price
Net
Annual
Profit N.1
30
91. -65000
-60000
-55000
-50000
-45000
-40000
-35000
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
US$
Year
Diesel village battery charging's chart for high interest rate 25%/year, no increase in
electricity consumption, increase 50% in diesel price
Total Gains Net Annual Profit Cumulative Earnings Loan from bank
Interest
rate
25%/year
No
Increase
Energy
consumpti
on
Increase
Diesel
Price 50%
Net
Annual
Profit N.8
37
92. Table. 22: The results of different combinations
of changes of diesel village battery charging
The best case of sensitivity analysis which Loan from
bank started to remain zero is in year 2010 which is
the case of the best Net Annual Profit No.1: Increase
50% in electricity consumption, Low Interest rate
2.9%, no increase in diesel price.
The worst case of sensitivity analysis which is the
case of the worst Net Annual Profit No.8: No increase
in electricity consumption, High Interest rate
25%, Increase 50% in diesel price. For this case, the
year of Loan from bank is fluctuated gradually.
38
