SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  37
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side November, 2009  Presented by:  Morris  Segall, President  SPG Trend Advisors
THE ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product Q1 2001 – Q3 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component  Q2 2008 – Q3 2009 ,[object Object]
Source:  World Bank The world-wide recession is over with emerging market economies led by China, India and Brazil leading the overseas recovery.  For the first time in post WWII history, the U.S. and Europe are not the locomotives of worldwide economic growth. However both the U.S. and Europe are recovering in the second half of 2009 led by government stimulus programs. Barring a “double dip “ recession next year on the expiration of government stimulus programs, the estimates below of worldwide economic growth in 2010 and 2011 are likely to be exceeded, particularly in developing countries.  *2007/08 data are actual  Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth around the World  2007 – 2011*
Year-over-year Percentage Changes: S&P Reported Operating Earning for Listed Companies Q1 2001-Q2 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Operating earnings reported by corporations included in the S&P 500 index.  The data  comes from company financial accounts and is not distorted by inventory, “write-off”, tax and depreciation adjustments.  It is a truer measure of corporate profitability.  Corporate earnings have fallen dramatically since the third quarter of 2007, falling 100% year/year in Q4 of 2008. Operating earnings are showing better year/year comparisons and are stabilizing but are still at depressed levels through Q2 of this year. Further improvement is expected in 2H of this year and 2010.
Industrial Production  January, 2008 - September, 2009 ,[object Object],% decline Jan. 08- Sep. ’09:  12.1%
Capacity Utilization by Status of Production January, 2008 - September, 2009 ,[object Object]
Manufacturers Orders & Shipments Excluding Transportation January, 2008 – September, 2009 ,[object Object]
Net Change in U.S. Jobs (Total Non-farm) October, 2005 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups October, 2007 – October, 2009 ,[object Object],The loss of jobs is pervasive throughout the entire economy and has not spared previously immune professional , executive and managerial  positions. This has been as much, if not more, a white collar, middle class recession.
Initial Unemployment Claims  January, 2009 – November, 2009 ,[object Object],Reflecting the rise in unemployment, new  job losses  rose dramatically in the first quarter of this year. Since then the trend of new job losses  has been declining.  However the absolute level of new job loss remains high.
Continued Unemployment Claims  October, 2006 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
Number of Unemployed on Federal Extended Benefit Programs July, 2008 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
Source: (Left) Census Bureau, (Right) Federal Reserve Bank ,[object Object],[object Object],Consumer spending stabilized in the second quarter and improved in the third. Since the third quarter of 2008 consumer spending has been declining and the consumer is currently paying down outstanding debt at record rates. These trends have been negative for the economy in the short term but the reduction of consumer debt and an increase in consumer savings  are positive for the  economy and the improved creditworthiness of the consumer longer term.
National Saving Rate as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income Q1 2005 – Q3 2009 ,[object Object]
[object Object],Source:  (Left) National Association of Realtors, (Right) Census Bureau  New Home Sales Units Sold  v. Length on Market  March, 2006 - September, 2009 Housing sales have improved since March and inventories have declined, particularly in new home construction. The improvement in housing reflects the government’s buyer tax credit, the cutback in new home construction, much reduced home prices and lower mortgage interest rates.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index  2006 – August, 2009 ,[object Object]
Conference Board Consumer Confidence 2005 – October, 2009 Source: Conference Board
Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS): Delinquency Rates for All Private-labels* Q2 2006 – Q2 2009 Source: Mortgage  Banker’s Association *CMBS issued by private entities (i.e. other than Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, or Freddie Mac).  The percentage of  loans that are 30-days delinquent.  The delinquency includes foreclosed estates.
Real Estate & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates: All Banks and Financial Institutions Q2 2007 –Q2 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy  and commodity prices. After bottoming in July, prices are moving up, driven by the reversal in energy prices. In addition, basic services, healthcare and education prices remain stubbornly high. Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2007 v.  2006 2008 v. 2007 6 months ended in July 2009 6 months ended in Aug.2009 6 months ended in Sep. 2009 All items 4.1% 0.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% Food at Home 5.6% 6.6% -4.5% -3.7% -3.6% Food Away Home 4.0% 5.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% Rent of Primary Res 4.0% 3.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% Household Energy 5.3% 5.9% -13.5% -12.8% -9.4% Water/Sewer/Trash  5.4% 6.5% 5.7% 7.3% 7.2% Houshold Ops 2.2% 6.0% -0.6% -.8% -0.6% Car Repair 3.3% 5.9% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% Pub. Transp 7.2% 1.8% -6.5% -.2% 6.1% Medical 5.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% Education 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 4.9% Energy 17.4% -21.3% 10.1% 12.9% 21.6%
[object Object],Crude Oil Spot Prices in U.S. Dollars November, 2004– November, 2009
[object Object],[object Object],Nominal Broad Dollar Index*  July, 2000 – November, 2009
THE GOVERNMENT’S  RESPONSE
Money Supply (M2):  January, 2007 – October, 2009 ,[object Object]
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2011* *2010-2011 data are projections Source:  Congressional Budget Office
[object Object],Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Reserve Bank Credit June, 2008 – November, 2009
Source: (Left) Federal Reserve Bank, (Right) British Banker’s Association ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Fed and European Central Bank have cut interest rates to the banking systems here and abroad thus driving down the cost of bank funds to facilitate bank lending.
What’s on the other side?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s on the other side? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are the opportunities? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Overview of Where the $787 Billion is Going: Break-down of the Stimulus Dollars by Sectors Source:  Recovery.gov
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank You ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Federal reserve challenge script
Federal reserve challenge scriptFederal reserve challenge script
Federal reserve challenge scriptNandita Venkatesan
 
Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010
Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010
Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010NAR Research
 
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industry
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industryImpacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industry
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industrySaidh KESSACI
 
Money & Banking
Money & BankingMoney & Banking
Money & BankingBrad
 
Nar Economic update
Nar Economic updateNar Economic update
Nar Economic updateAnthony
 
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?Markets Beyond
 
2015 State of the Construction Industry
2015 State of the Construction Industry 2015 State of the Construction Industry
2015 State of the Construction Industry Lisa Dehner
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015Mercer Capital
 
AS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and Conflicts
AS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and ConflictsAS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and Conflicts
AS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and Conflictstutor2u
 
Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013
Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013
Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013One Columbus
 
PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)
PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)
PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)PwC France
 
2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - Economics
2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - Economics2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - Economics
2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - EconomicsAmaan Hussain
 
demand and supply side policies
demand and supply side policiesdemand and supply side policies
demand and supply side policiesBatool Mehdi
 
State of the construction industry (2006 2007)
State of the construction industry (2006 2007)State of the construction industry (2006 2007)
State of the construction industry (2006 2007)Lisa Dehner
 
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambia
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaThe global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambia
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
 
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity Growth
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity GrowthCBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity Growth
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity GrowthCongressional Budget Office
 

Tendances (19)

Federal reserve challenge script
Federal reserve challenge scriptFederal reserve challenge script
Federal reserve challenge script
 
Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010
Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010
Economic Indicators for Week of September 27-October 1, 2010
 
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industry
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industryImpacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industry
Impacts and implications_of_covid-19_for_the_energy_industry
 
Money & Banking
Money & BankingMoney & Banking
Money & Banking
 
Nar Economic update
Nar Economic updateNar Economic update
Nar Economic update
 
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?
 
2015 State of the Construction Industry
2015 State of the Construction Industry 2015 State of the Construction Industry
2015 State of the Construction Industry
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015
 
Macro objectives
Macro objectivesMacro objectives
Macro objectives
 
AS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and Conflicts
AS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and ConflictsAS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and Conflicts
AS Macro Revision: Macro Objectives and Conflicts
 
Inclusive g in 2011
Inclusive g in 2011Inclusive g in 2011
Inclusive g in 2011
 
Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013
Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013
Quarterly Economic Update | Q4 2013
 
PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)
PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)
PwC Global Economy watch (mars 2014)
 
2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - Economics
2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - Economics2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - Economics
2. understanding the environments of business - itb - ayesha aman - Economics
 
demand and supply side policies
demand and supply side policiesdemand and supply side policies
demand and supply side policies
 
State of the construction industry (2006 2007)
State of the construction industry (2006 2007)State of the construction industry (2006 2007)
State of the construction industry (2006 2007)
 
State of the Industry Report 2017
State of the Industry Report 2017State of the Industry Report 2017
State of the Industry Report 2017
 
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambia
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaThe global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambia
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambia
 
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity Growth
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity GrowthCBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity Growth
CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity Growth
 

Similaire à Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010
Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010
Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010pospime
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015Mercer Capital
 
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)The Vertex Companies, LLC
 
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Ivan Kaufman
 
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)Lisa Dehner
 
State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)The Vertex Companies, LLC
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014Mercer Capital
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014Mercer Capital
 
Maricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study Preview
Maricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study PreviewMaricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study Preview
Maricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study PreviewCity of Maricopa
 
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019Ivan Kaufman
 
VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018
VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018
VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018The Vertex Companies, LLC
 
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation 2018
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation   2018Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation   2018
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation 2018The Vertex Companies, LLC
 
An overview of the indian economy
An overview of the indian economyAn overview of the indian economy
An overview of the indian economyShavetakohli
 
Dr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update
Dr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic UpdateDr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update
Dr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic UpdateMercatus Center
 
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)PwC France
 
Oct Market Monitor
Oct Market MonitorOct Market Monitor
Oct Market Monitorjspeltz
 
Issues in retail
Issues in retailIssues in retail
Issues in retailpinakamaano
 
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019Ivan Kaufman
 
TESDA Financing Options Prof. B. Diokno
TESDA Financing Options Prof. B. DioknoTESDA Financing Options Prof. B. Diokno
TESDA Financing Options Prof. B. DioknoYolynne Medina
 

Similaire à Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side (20)

Economic Presentation
Economic PresentationEconomic Presentation
Economic Presentation
 
Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010
Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010
Capital Market 1st Quarter 2010
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2015
 
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)
 
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1
 
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction and Surety Industry Report (2010)
 
State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)
State of the Construction Industry Report (2010)
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014
 
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014
 
Maricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study Preview
Maricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study PreviewMaricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study Preview
Maricopa Economic Outlook and Labor Study Preview
 
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
Arbor U.S. Economic Overview Q1 2019
 
VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018
VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018
VERTEX Annual State of the Construction Industry 2018
 
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation 2018
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation   2018Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation   2018
Vertex annual state of the construction industry presentation 2018
 
An overview of the indian economy
An overview of the indian economyAn overview of the indian economy
An overview of the indian economy
 
Dr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update
Dr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic UpdateDr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update
Dr. Bruce Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update
 
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
 
Oct Market Monitor
Oct Market MonitorOct Market Monitor
Oct Market Monitor
 
Issues in retail
Issues in retailIssues in retail
Issues in retail
 
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
US Economic Overview | Q3 2019
 
TESDA Financing Options Prof. B. Diokno
TESDA Financing Options Prof. B. DioknoTESDA Financing Options Prof. B. Diokno
TESDA Financing Options Prof. B. Diokno
 

Dernier

2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources PresentationAdnet Communications
 
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024Guillaume Ⓥ Sarlat
 
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...mwangimwangi222
 
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesContracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesGRAPE
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdfMichael Silva
 
The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...
The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...
The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...Antonis Zairis
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTESACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTESKumarJayaraman3
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdfMichael Silva
 
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGeckoRWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGeckoCoinGecko
 
Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707
Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707
Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707harshan90
 
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy   made by Robert MiklosHungarys economy   made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklosbeduinpower135
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdfMichael Silva
 
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023SkillCircle
 
20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal. .pptx
20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal.    .pptx20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal.    .pptx
20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal. .pptxFinTech Belgium
 
Work and Pensions report into UK corporate DB funding
Work and Pensions report into UK corporate DB fundingWork and Pensions report into UK corporate DB funding
Work and Pensions report into UK corporate DB fundingHenry Tapper
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.KumarJayaraman3
 
Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...
Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...
Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...Matthews Bantsijang
 

Dernier (20)

2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
 
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
 
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
 
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesContracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
 
Effects & Policies Of Bank Consolidation
Effects & Policies Of Bank ConsolidationEffects & Policies Of Bank Consolidation
Effects & Policies Of Bank Consolidation
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 19 2024.pdf
 
The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...
The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...
The unequal battle of inflation and the appropriate sustainable solution | Eu...
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTESACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II BRANCH ACCOUNTS NOTES
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for March 26.pdf
 
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGeckoRWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
RWA Report 2024: Rise of Real-World Assets in Crypto | CoinGecko
 
Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707
Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707
Mphasis - Schwab Newsletter PDF - Sample 8707
 
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No.230, March 2024
 
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy   made by Robert MiklosHungarys economy   made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
 
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
India Economic Survey Complete for the year of 2022 to 2023
 
20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal. .pptx
20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal.    .pptx20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal.    .pptx
20240315 _E-Invoicing Digiteal. .pptx
 
Work and Pensions report into UK corporate DB funding
Work and Pensions report into UK corporate DB fundingWork and Pensions report into UK corporate DB funding
Work and Pensions report into UK corporate DB funding
 
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
ACCOUNTING FOR BUSINESS.II DEPARTMENTAL ACCOUNTS.
 
Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...
Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...
Remembering my Totem _Unity is Strength_ growing in Bophuthatswana_Matthews B...
 

Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

  • 1. Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side November, 2009 Presented by: Morris Segall, President SPG Trend Advisors
  • 3. Gross Domestic Product Q1 2001 – Q3 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 4.
  • 5. Source: World Bank The world-wide recession is over with emerging market economies led by China, India and Brazil leading the overseas recovery. For the first time in post WWII history, the U.S. and Europe are not the locomotives of worldwide economic growth. However both the U.S. and Europe are recovering in the second half of 2009 led by government stimulus programs. Barring a “double dip “ recession next year on the expiration of government stimulus programs, the estimates below of worldwide economic growth in 2010 and 2011 are likely to be exceeded, particularly in developing countries. *2007/08 data are actual Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth around the World 2007 – 2011*
  • 6. Year-over-year Percentage Changes: S&P Reported Operating Earning for Listed Companies Q1 2001-Q2 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Operating earnings reported by corporations included in the S&P 500 index. The data comes from company financial accounts and is not distorted by inventory, “write-off”, tax and depreciation adjustments. It is a truer measure of corporate profitability. Corporate earnings have fallen dramatically since the third quarter of 2007, falling 100% year/year in Q4 of 2008. Operating earnings are showing better year/year comparisons and are stabilizing but are still at depressed levels through Q2 of this year. Further improvement is expected in 2H of this year and 2010.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 2005 – October, 2009 Source: Conference Board
  • 20. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS): Delinquency Rates for All Private-labels* Q2 2006 – Q2 2009 Source: Mortgage Banker’s Association *CMBS issued by private entities (i.e. other than Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, or Freddie Mac). The percentage of loans that are 30-days delinquent. The delinquency includes foreclosed estates.
  • 21. Real Estate & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates: All Banks and Financial Institutions Q2 2007 –Q2 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
  • 22. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy and commodity prices. After bottoming in July, prices are moving up, driven by the reversal in energy prices. In addition, basic services, healthcare and education prices remain stubbornly high. Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2007 v. 2006 2008 v. 2007 6 months ended in July 2009 6 months ended in Aug.2009 6 months ended in Sep. 2009 All items 4.1% 0.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% Food at Home 5.6% 6.6% -4.5% -3.7% -3.6% Food Away Home 4.0% 5.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% Rent of Primary Res 4.0% 3.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% Household Energy 5.3% 5.9% -13.5% -12.8% -9.4% Water/Sewer/Trash 5.4% 6.5% 5.7% 7.3% 7.2% Houshold Ops 2.2% 6.0% -0.6% -.8% -0.6% Car Repair 3.3% 5.9% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% Pub. Transp 7.2% 1.8% -6.5% -.2% 6.1% Medical 5.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% Education 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% 4.9% Energy 17.4% -21.3% 10.1% 12.9% 21.6%
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE
  • 26.
  • 27. U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2011* *2010-2011 data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. Overview of Where the $787 Billion is Going: Break-down of the Stimulus Dollars by Sectors Source: Recovery.gov
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.